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Commodity Currencies: AUD, CAD and NZD

  • #121
  • Mar 22, 2010 12:17pm Mar 22, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
it seems the bearish count for A/U and N/U is strong as we expected,
there is a good chance my previous orders wont get filled, I
changed my sell limit orders for A/U to weekly pivot at .9165 and N/U at .7077
Hi Shahab8b, are you going to target 9082 (S1) from here now that we hit 9165 or are you going to let it run down as far as she can go?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #122
  • Mar 22, 2010 1:03pm Mar 22, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Hi Shahab8b, are you going to target 9082 (S1) from here now that we hit 9165 or are you going to let it run down as far as she can go?

I was at lecture but my sell limit orders at .9165 got filled , I added to them at .9175 as there is a S>R around this area, aiming S1 as 1st target then .90 and below
  • #123
  • Mar 22, 2010 1:39pm Mar 22, 2010 1:39pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
I was at lecture but my sell limit orders at .9165 got filled , I added to them at .9175 as there is a S>R around this area, aiming S1 as 1st target then .90 and below
Hey there Shahab,
Was long earlier today after that bounce of the .9090 area.
(.9100 to .9170 for some nice 70 pips)

Now I am short again from these levels .9175 as well.
To the upside I think .9190 to .92 area should be a hard resistance. got My SL @ .9215 for now. If we get up there I might consider adding to my shorts.
we will see
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #124
  • Mar 22, 2010 1:46pm Mar 22, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab,
Was long earlier today after that bounce of the .9090 area.
(.9100 to .9170 for some nice 70 pips)

Now I am short again from these levels .9175 as well.
To the upside I think .9190 to .92 area should be a hard resistance. got My SL @ .9215 for now. If we get up there I might consider adding to my shorts.
we will see
Hi Turner, you took long at .9100, how did you do that? that was an excellent trade, I wanted to take long near Weekly S1 at .9085 but I couldnt convince myself,
well done
  • #125
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:26pm Mar 22, 2010 2:26pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Turner, you took long at .9100, how did you do that? that was an excellent trade, I wanted to take long near Weekly S1 at .9085 but I couldnt convince myself,
well done
Well. it was easy. just hit the "Buy" -button
I was also struggling to buy down there.. but the bounce looked hard and was on higher volumes. (Had some other lines at that area helping me to convince myself. 20EMA on the daily.. and some fibs)
Sure had my SL tight on that one.. just below the low @ 9084 ( )
so it did work out. Now ready to run the train south...
Next hours could be slow.. but let's see what Asia Session will bring

What you think of U/CAD now? Have been lookin for a nice entry there but seems I missed that train...
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #126
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:35pm Mar 22, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting Tuner
Well. it was easy. just hit the "Buy" -button...
great, that was smart,

U/Cad I'm still waiting to get a chance to buy dip, I think the best set up now
is Sell GBPUSd (at current level 1.51) this is just below weekly pivot and some fib level
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  • #127
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:41pm Mar 22, 2010 2:41pm
for U/Cad I think weekly pivot at 1.0155 would provide buy opportunity if price gets there again
  • #128
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:48pm Mar 22, 2010 2:48pm
kiwi, I put sell limit order at weekly pivot, and will add till S>R at .7102 a SL=.7035 would work
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  • #129
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:54pm Mar 22, 2010 2:54pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
great, that was smart,

U/Cad I'm still waiting to get a chance to buy dip, I think the best set up now
is Sell GBPUSd (at current level 1.51) this is just below weekly pivot and some fib level
For the GBP I actually was looking for 1,5155 area for a entry. (that would be around the 50 fib level on your chart). not sure if we will get there. tight range for the last few hours there..

AUD looked to have started south but now back up there where it started.
you got a wide SL on your AUD?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #130
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:54pm Mar 22, 2010 2:54pm
my A/U shorts, I expect to see R at previous S around .9190
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  • #131
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:59pm Mar 22, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting Tuner
For the GBP I actually was looking for 1,5155 area for a entry. (that would be around the 50 fib level on your chart). not sure if we will get there. tight range for the last few hours there..

AUD looked to have started south but now back up there where it started.
you got a wide SL on your AUD?
I'm looking to add A/u short at weekly R1 if it gets there, so I will consider my SL to be 150 pips,
remember last week when we bought U/Cad at S1 and it went down 60-70 pips from there, my SL was wide but I close them when the price re-touch the weekly S1 at minimum loss (about 10-15 pips)

for cable i dont see it pass through weekly pivot at 1.5120 ,at least for now!
  • #132
  • Mar 22, 2010 3:21pm Mar 22, 2010 3:21pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
I'm looking to add A/u short at weekly R1 if it gets there, so I will consider my SL to be 150 pips,
remember last week when we bought U/Cad at S1 and it went down 60-70 pips from there, my SL was wide but I close them when the price re-touch the weekly S1 at minimum loss (about 10-15 pips)

for cable i dont see it pass through weekly pivot at 1.5120 ,at least for now!
Thanks for the explanation!
Yeah, I remember the CAD from last week. So I understand now how you handle your Stops. Tried that as well before but got burnt badly
(in case the initial stop does get hit)
wouldn't be the right thing for my account-size at the moment

some more profit-days as today and I might get more flexible with my setups as well
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #133
  • Mar 22, 2010 3:27pm Mar 22, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting Tuner
Thanks for the explanation!
Yeah, I remember the CAD from last week. So I understand now how you handle your Stops. Tried that as well before but got burnt badly
(in case the initial stop does get hit)
wouldn't be the right thing for my account-size at the moment

some more profit-days as today and I might get more flexible with my setups as well
yeah it really depends on your account size as well as lots per trade,
as I mentioned before I take couple of trades smaller size and when I see the draw down more than what I expect i start to close them one by one,
but I always use SL/ or a hedge position, the SL depends on the trade set up, the simple one is what I said before , but some times in contrast to this A/U trade I may use as low as 10-15 pips SL
  • #134
  • Mar 22, 2010 5:13pm Mar 22, 2010 5:13pm
Aud bouncing off green lows at 9090 and having a daily close back above the weekly PP is not what you want to be seeing if you are looking for a down trend. A down trend can still happen but it has just become much lower probability this week.
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  • #135
  • Mar 22, 2010 5:29pm Mar 22, 2010 5:29pm
Quoting amyc
Aud bouncing off green lows at 9090 and having a daily close back above the weekly PP is not what you want to be seeing if you are looking for a down trend. A down trend can still happen but it has just become much lower probability this week.
so you think we are heading higher again this week? the price still is in 61% fib of the recent short-term fall , if it breaks thought the fib level a new high is probable

for now the short set up is still fine, however is not perfect considering the PA
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  • #136
  • Mar 22, 2010 5:48pm Mar 22, 2010 5:48pm
Quoting shahab8b
so you think we are heading higher again this week? the price still is in 61% fib of the recent short-term fall , if it breaks thought the fib level a new high is probable

for now the short set up is still fine, however is not perfect considering the PA
I think direction for the rest of the week is 50-50 for aud and it probably depends more on what other correlating markets do.
  • #137
  • Mar 22, 2010 6:28pm Mar 22, 2010 6:28pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
so you think we are heading higher again this week? the price still is in 61% fib of the recent short-term fall , if it breaks thought the fib level a new high is probable

for now the short set up is still fine, however is not perfect considering the PA
The close above weekly Pivot, as mentioned by amy, makes me also feeling less comfortable with my short.
and I don't like the PA at the moment
Got my stop lower now: some pips above the 61.8 fib.. (0.9200)
so when It breaks that fib line I will be out at that area (and still be green for the day with my Long from earlier)

Good luck to you all.

-Tuner-
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #138
  • Mar 23, 2010 7:26am Mar 23, 2010 7:26am
A/U
if it wants to fall it should accelerate today, the confidence is not high for holding this short , SL>B/E
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  • #139
  • Mar 23, 2010 8:18am Mar 23, 2010 8:18am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
A/U
if it wants to fall it should accelerate today, the confidence is not high for holding this short , SL>B/E
I agree. Cashed in my short earlier today @ .9138
Now just tried a last shot and placed abother short @ .9176
tight SL of 15 pips on that one.
If it doesn't turn down now and hits my SL I will stand aside for the rest of the day or even the next days I think.

Gold just retested the 1100... but still doesn't look to drop hard finally now to guide the AUD...
let's see
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #140
  • Mar 23, 2010 10:16am Mar 23, 2010 10:16am
A/U tested 9190 but my sentiment still remains bearish. 4hr still showing overbought conditions IMO. Daily candle still below 5ma.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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