DTFD - Dot Trading for Dummies

Herewith the final template and indicators.

Will continue testing. Those who would like to follow - welcome. do not trade this until such time that you have gained confidence. Again, this is not a holy grail - this is not a 100% perfect setup. The aim is to get a 70% probability. As with this ratio, one could make it work...

It is an attempt to garner discipline and to look for best possible pieces to trade for a positive outcome. This is not for experienced traders - I repeat - this is not for experienced traders. Too many good opportunities will pass.

It is my attempt to cut back the frequency I trade and to take pieces of an established trend - in the expectancy to profit from it.

I will let 1000's of pips pass me by. Then trade for 20. And that attempt may fail.... so - this will not be for everyone. The end result may also be a negative expectancy - or total failure...

Regards

Herewith 3 charts giving the breakdown of the total story.

Chart 1 - shows the attempt to determine possible turns. This has always been a challenge - and remains as such. This attempt, as stated previously, is based on a MA-type cross - not ZigZag - so, in general, should be better.

Chart 2 - added confirmation / this through MAMA - you read correctly - MAMA. More background - this is actually an adaptive Moving Average.The adapation is based on the rate change of phase as measured by the Hilbert Transform Discriminator.The advantage of this method of adaptation is that it features a fast attack average and a slow decay average so that composite average rapidly ratchets behind price changes and holds the average value until the next ratchet occurs.

Chart 3 - added another cross to confirm the MAMA as well as to provide possible exits.

As you will pick up, with all these confirmations, one would rarely trade. The perfect setup may take days, but once I have a full confirmation, I should have high probability. All in theory.


This shows you the lag and shortcomings of any indicator, as opposed to trading PA. But I want stressless trades - no thinking....

Do not attempt trading this, until the rules are put down. This to follow later.. - in the interim, just follow.

Regards

Wish I could help with the details but cannot find/remember.

One of those trader win a Mini competitions from about 5 years ago. Basically the winner used a higher time frame MA cross as set up and then went to 5 min chart for entry off you guessed it a MA cross.

I'm sure you get the idea.

Good day to you,

I do not know if I am barking up the wrong tree here, but this is my little baby. I am so sure one could make Moving Averages work well, if presented in a simple manner. I am using MAMA as such - it is a signal coming from 1hr charts, but traded on 30 min.

In theory, we need directional confirmation first up - this is what we all struggle with. PA in itself is the best possible way to trade, but we do not all have the skill. I believe that SR levels and Fib's are also extremely good tools - but again, most of us struggle with that. SR levels are broken - sometimes to continue, sometimes to entice.

I am attempting to trade no-brainer trades.

I appreciate your post and your comment.

Wish you all the best

Regards

I forgot to add - this template to be placed on 30 min charts only. No lower - no higher.

I may later look at 2hr charts. But for now, 30 min only.

Regards

Hey TT,

Was thinking where you are gone. Good to see you have opened your thread!


ta
ams

Good day to you,

Thank you for your post. Appreciated.

Yip, I am in process of attempting to find a simple way of trading, and finding cycles within longer term trends. It has kept me up for hours - testing a gazillion different things....

I hope you are doing well and that your trading is improving. Feel more than free to pop in from time to time and say hello - this if I am still standing...

I, at times, feel I am busy with an impossible task. I may fail terribly - but at least, I gave it a shot...

Wish you all success

Regards

Taken this trade off the last signal. You can see that everything else - Step 1 and 2 - is against this. We only have a 33.3% confirmation. But this one worked.

Does it mean anything? No. I was lucky.

I will start posting the rules I will follow soon. Again, do not trade this now. Just observe...

Regards

The very first rule. See charts.

I want to see an indication of possible change in direction ( shorter term). These indicated by the hollow dots. these may change, move or disappear - it just serves as an indication of possible future direction. A sort of GET READY indication...

If this apprear, trading in the opposite direction is off the table for me.

Regards

These indications are based on Moving Average Type indicators - they are not ZigZag type. So - more consistent.

Regards

The second rule.

Once I have seen the hollow dot of Rule1 - I am looking for the MAMA. Once we have a possible turn indication from rule1, as well as a MAMA indication, both in the same direction, we may be in for some business... this basically tells us that the turn may be sustainable..

Remember - template for 30 min only. No lower, no higher. 30 min.

I look for "1" in the direction of the rule1 and rule2 indicators. If I have a blue rule1 and a blue MAMA indication - I take the first blue "1". Exit at the first red "1". And vice versa.

Should i have a red rule1 as well as a red MAMA, i look for the first red "1" to enter, and exit at the first blue "1" encountered.

Regards

See chart. All 3 rules to apply before I trade. Miss 1000's of pips, but get good probability trades - stress free.

Regards

Really impressive work you're doing Tau. I really love trading daily and 4hr candles but I have been thinking of doing some intraday trading and this might be a good filter to go with my price action style trading. Candles below 4hrs just are not as reliable as the higher timeframes as you know but I could be happy hunting 20-50 pips a day to supplement my daily stuff. I have plenty of patience as I have traded a few weekly candles.

I'm babbling .....keep up the good work.

Mike

Thank you for stopping by.

This could become a total trainsmash - but could also hold value. The test of time....

Will apply the rules and see if trading could be for dummies like me...

Do stop by from time to time. Your input is always valued.

warm regards

Entry signal on EU - to short...

All 3 signals received. Let's see...

Same scenario.

All 3 entry signals confirmed - entry short. Will see.

Regards

The 2 entered trades, I will exit at the next "1" blue dot.

Regards

The last part...

Where to place stops? I was thinking just above the previous high - before the signal received..

So stops on EU @ 1.3549 and on GU @ 1.5080..

I am closing the shorts taken. I have to go out of town for the rest of the day, and since trading 30 min charts only, will not be here when the exit signal comes.

Exit signal not yet received.

Regards