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The Dance

  • #261
  • Mar 21, 2010 1:15pm Mar 21, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting yunielescaz
hey am i considered a regular?
Yep, I guess you are yunie.

Quoting yunielescaz
somehow i don't trade Fridays. when i 1st started out learning forex via babypips, they were against trading on fridays, calling them stop hunter days where markets move w/o reason. so i chose to trade only 4days a week which is fine cos fri is a family day for me. and thats y i chose to enter forex.
Fridays are either really good or not worth trading most of the time. I once considered eliminating Fridays all together and may at some point in the future. Still undecided on that, but whether or not I trade it, I am almost always out of the market several hours before close, unless I'm in a greally great trade that's going my way. Then I'm out a minimum of 1 bar before close. Not worth the risk of getting stuck over the weekend.

Quoting yunielescaz
ur life story and trading journey(in the manual) is rather similar to mine and thus i was inspired to stick to this thread as my main strategy. still visually trading constrainments though(haven't really got a hang of them) and having some success with touch trades. will try to revert back to the 3 TF format like u.. altho i have been gettin really comfortable with all the MA equivalents on the 15min.
Not everyone wants to trade for a living, but it is a good way to live. I have been an entrepreneur most of my life and no matter what I've done, I always seemed to end up in my own business doing it.

As for the setup and the signals of constrainment, touches,,, etc., with a small amount of work it WILL simply "come" and you'll start seeing things.

Yesterday, for example I was STILL practicing on the Simulator and during a period in 2007 (randomly stopped the simulator without looking at the year/ month stuff) I was able to almost double the "simulated account" over about 6 days of trading.

Now, that may not happen in "live" trading because no one can watch the market all day 24/7, but the number of signals I traded was only about 12 or so. Surely we can find that many over a period of two weeks or less. That then would allow one to literally double the account at about 3% risk per trade in about two or three weeks.

Not bad, especially when the "knowledgeable" of FF preach you can't average even 4% per day. And to be honest, at some point liquidity WOULD become an issue, but why not get to a point where your income is $100,000.00 per week? Then just start taking the money each week or each month. THAT IS possible and possible on a VERY consistent basis.

Oh, by the way, that would be about $5 mmmm mmmmm mmmillion a year in income. Oh, my gosh,,, I had the audacity and the heresy to say something like that, but I know some who make that much and some who are very, very close. All because they believed it was and is possible and began doing it.

Ummmm,,, by the way, the giants of industry who "did" things, and the giants of trading who "do" things are really not much different. They believed, so they did. It really IS that simple.

OK,,, off my soap box,,, sorry, but yep, you're a "regular" now I guess, just like me.

God bless,
Clay
  • #262
  • Mar 21, 2010 6:40pm Mar 21, 2010 6:40pm
Due to some personal matters, I won't be on tonight with trades. I will be back on tomorrow at some point.

God bless
  • #263
  • Mar 21, 2010 9:52pm Mar 21, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting eclayf
Due to some personal matters, I won't be on tonight with trades. I will be back on tomorrow at some point.

God bless
hope all is fine.

im still taking it slow. my confidence is not up to par yet only doing 0.5-1% risk per trade. max 2% if the setup looks great. i vary it with the strength of the signal.
  • #264
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:12am Mar 22, 2010 2:12am
Hi Clay,

Winzip doen't like the new manual zip file. I downloaded the latest version (ver 14) but still no luck. Any ideas? See error message below.

Cannot open file: it does not appear to be a valid archive.

If you downloaded this file, try downloading the file again.

Regards,

Jan
  • #265
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:42am Mar 22, 2010 2:42am
1h gbpusd constrainment setup formation below 10 ma in progress !
Stay tune and let s see what could happen with that

Luke
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h gbpusd constrainment in progress.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #266
  • Mar 22, 2010 3:02am Mar 22, 2010 3:02am
Thanks eclayf for this updated trading manual...

and those who are having problems opening the above files... can rename first file(the dance tools which gets downloaded as attachment.php)change its extension to .zip from .php and it will open.
Anything is possible; everything is negotiable
  • #267
  • Mar 22, 2010 3:28am Mar 22, 2010 3:28am
Quoting eclayf
Yep, I guess you are yunie.



Fridays are either really good or not worth trading most of the time....
The refreshing thing that has struck me about this thread so far is that it's aspirational. The harsh reality is that returns of 4% + a day will be made by only a few but they are made, there are countless examples of this being done every year by many traders. What's to stop you being one of them? Yourself?

My personal aim is to eventually have a large enough account to revert to long TF trading with just a few hours work a week and essentially "retire" whilst travelling the world and enjoying life with total financial security. It'd be nice to do this before i'm 40 - i'm 31 now. If I miss the target, so be it but having a business plan and a clear aim for your business is the only way to be. Your approach and encouragement suits my mindset about the business- keep up the good work.

As for the strat, I didn't trade on Friday but it's the start of my working week today. I've seen a few excellent examples of this strat working on EU and cable during the last 8 hours or so.
  • #268
  • Mar 22, 2010 3:29am Mar 22, 2010 3:29am
So too bad false alert about the possible setup constrainment trade on the 1h below the 10 ma, better luck next time and get ready for another setup formation !

Luke
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #269
  • Mar 22, 2010 3:35am Mar 22, 2010 3:35am
just got out of 2 bad trades. both were blow outs on touch trades for GU(which was reinforced by a 10ema bounce on the 1hr) n EJ. shall call it a day. some how i keep gettin blown out on the 35/50 touch no matter the angle of the retrace. mayb i should move to constrainment only trades.
  • #270
  • Mar 22, 2010 4:41am Mar 22, 2010 4:41am
Hi EurekaForex,

Thanks for the tip. I opened the file with winzip without having to change the extention.

Hi Clay,

Good work on version 2, thanks.

Jan
  • #271
  • Mar 22, 2010 5:45am Mar 22, 2010 5:45am
Hi Pipsrider, re your chart above on the one hour cable. Personally I didn't feel the trade was a constrainment on the 10 MA as the distance was a bit away from the candle tips and did not have that "huggy" feel I look for. But on your same chart if you look at the RN 5250 region where the constrainment trade was bumping against the (red MA which I presume is the 50) now that was a constrainment trade to me. Constrained by the 50 and at a round number region. I admit I wasn't watching the chart and so didn't take it, but as Clay says these set-ups occur all the time if we have confidence in ourselves. Not being critical just trying to learn as we all are I feel.

Alex
  • #272
  • Mar 22, 2010 6:00am Mar 22, 2010 6:00am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Mar 22 2010.jpg Size: 211 KB
Quoting yunielescaz
just got out of 2 bad trades. both were blow outs on touch trades for GU(which was reinforced by a 10ema bounce on the 1hr) n EJ. shall call it a day. some how i keep gettin blown out on the 35/50 touch no matter the angle of the retrace. mayb i should move to constrainment only trades.
Hi yunielescaz,
I'm not sure if you are referring to the "touches" of the 35 SMA and 50 EMA but if so in my opinion these were not the strongest examples of the touch trade signals. I am attaching a screen print with some notes that may offer some help.

The toughest areas to look for trades is when the market is in consolidation as it was before the 35 SMA and 50 EMA touches. The strongest signal was the constrainment signal when price was constrained by the 35 SMA early in the session.

Stay positive and review the documents eclayf has provided and you will get there.

God Bless,
Mikali
  • #273
  • Mar 22, 2010 7:37am Mar 22, 2010 7:37am
Boy am I happy with what I see on the thread today. Everyone's playing nice, helping each other, getting along, trying to follow the rules of The Dance and the thread,,,, awesome, just awesome. Can't tell you how happy it makes me. Makes giving back all the more "worth it."

Quoting yunielescaz
hope all is fine. im still taking it slow. my confidence is not up to par yet
Everything is fine yuine, thank you. Just have a few more things today to deal with, so I can only drop in for a few. Slow is a good thing. A very good thing. Just ask Endroute how many times I have almost "been there" and then gave in to the "gotta get it NOW" attitude and then found myself back at ground zero re-learning what I had already learned.

You'll get there yunie, you will. Give yourself a bit of grace buddy and it'll come soon enough.

For a long time I couldn't maintain any sort of "profitability" in the Simulator, then all of a sudden it "clicked" and I started making good trades in it, then in the Demo account. Then this past couple of days, I was able to almost double the "account" in the Simulator which is moving much faster, much harder to see the signals and catch them.

I takes patience my friend, but it DOES come.

Quoting EurekaForex
Thanks eclayf for this updated trading manual...
EurekaForex, thank you for giving the advice about the attachments. That problem is noted on page 1, but never hurts to say it again.

Quoting Trotty
The refreshing thing that has struck me about this thread so far is that it's aspirational. The harsh reality is that returns of 4% + a day will be made by only a few but they are made, there are countless examples of this being done every year by many traders. What's to stop you being one of them? Yourself?

My personal aim is to eventually have a large enough account to revert to long TF trading with just a few hours work a week and essentially "retire" whilst travelling the world and enjoying life with total financial security. It'd be nice...
If more believed it possible, more would achieve it. Used to be that only superstars ran 4 minute miles,,, people in high school do it pretty consistently now. Same issue, really is.

Trotty, Man,,, wish I had started this when I was 31,,, do you realize that you will be making more money in a week by the time your 33, than most will ever make in a year? Ponder that for a moment will ya!?

Quoting PipsRider
1h gbpusd constrainment setup formation below 10 ma in progress !
Hi PipsRider, that trade wasn't constrainment, except possibly by an S/R level that would indicate a long not a short there. There are two daily wicks from 12 days ago that also represent the daily low sofar for today and the area where price was struggling that you talk about. Interesting areas, but not good areas necessarily to try to find a trade.

Nothing was even close to one of the lines of The Dance. If you look to the left of the chart you can see immediately in the very recent past that this is a pretty strong S/R level where it went long once before and

JVFX, glad you got it opened and that it's helping you.

adowland, great analysis of that chart and you nailed the area of constrainment perfectly.

Mikali, good analysis,,, there is more,, if you look at the D1 chart, we have what currently looks like a doji pin, which is at the very best major indecision and on M15, we have 35/50 lines that are really "wide" apart at that point indicating a slowing of price in the downward trend, D1 shows the exact same thing and H1 is also starting to show that separation between th lines starting... so in short, this is an area where I may not have taken that trade on either line, but IF I had, and that IS a possibility, I would have kept an EXTREMELY tight SL of no more than about 7 pips at the most. Then either it does or it doesn't.

BUT,,, looks like that first 35 Touch did bounce down about 15 pips ro so which means you should have moved to BR already expecting it to either keep going down, but covering the trade in case it didn't.

The bar "touched" at 1.4974 and went up to 1.4979 (5 pips but +spread would have taken you out with 7 pips SL) then back down to 1.4962, not closing below the 10, indicating more "up" pressure than "bounce" pressure.

I know this is a lot to think about, but it will come, it will come.

I can't stay long, gotta run,,, but awesome camaraderie guys,, just awesome. I'll be back in a few hours from now when I'm finished.

God bless,,, what a great way to start the week,,, just awesome.
  • #274
  • Mar 22, 2010 8:39am Mar 22, 2010 8:39am
Quoting eclayf
Boy am I happy with what I see on the thread
Trotty, Man,,, wish I had started this when I was 31,,, do you realize that you will be making more money in a week by the time your 33, than most will ever make in a year? Ponder that for a moment will ya!?
Hey, I seriously hope you're right. Shoot for the stars etc...
  • #275
  • Mar 22, 2010 9:31am Mar 22, 2010 9:31am
good day gentleman first time im posting here... i have really enjoyed this thread thus far and i really like this strategy, it suits my personality very well. thank you very much for what you have shared with all of us eclayf!!!!! i hope to be learning alot from you in the future!!!

I know this doesnt have anything to do with this strategy but it could help somewhat...

looks like a head and shoulders formation on the 15min chart of gbp/usd, we could maybe switch to 5min chart to get a possible entry from 10ema???

looking forward to your inputs.

cheers
dane
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd15min-head and shoulders.jpg Size: 122 KB
  • #276
  • Mar 22, 2010 11:17am Mar 22, 2010 11:17am
Quoting Mikali
Attachment

Hi yunielescaz,
I'm not sure if you are referring to the "touches" of the 35 SMA and 50 EMA but if so in my opinion these were not the strongest examples of the touch trade signals. I am attaching a screen print with some notes that may offer some help.

[color=black][font=Verdana]The toughest areas to look for trades is when the market is in consolidation as it was before the 35 SMA and 50 EMA touches. The strongest signal was the constrainment signal when price was constrained...
yea that was the trade that i took. i missed the earlier 1 out due to the fact that i dont trade asian session. also took it as i interpreted it as a fast retrace which took 2 big bars to go up with a steep 45 deg angle of the 10ema being a strong signal and also with additional confirmation by the 1hr 10ema touch. but oh well. u cant win all of them. london session was rather choppy today. blowing through most MAs. but US open was trending nicely bouncing off the MAs beautifully.( i already sat out due to the 2loss in a row rule per day)
  • #277
  • Mar 22, 2010 11:20am Mar 22, 2010 11:20am
Quoting DaNiSh101
I know this doesn't have anything to do with this strategy but it could help somewhat... looks like a head and shoulders formation on the 15min chart of gbp/usd, we could maybe switch to 5min chart to get a possible entry from 10ema???
Hi Dane, I know you mean well, so don't take this personally, or wrong. First, let me quote page one of the thread.

Quoting eclayf
11. NO FIBS, NO TREND LINES, NO PITCHFORKS, NO GARTLEYS, WOLF WAVES, GANN lines or any other such stuff that would only confuse those trying to learn this strategy. No talk of long term support and resistance levels (we only use them from the past few days as explained in the manual), no talk of “traditional” chart patterns such as Head and Shoulders, triangles, pennants, etc, etc, ad nauseum. Yes they work but they would only confuse those trying to learn this strategy. You risk going on the ignore list and not being able to post...
If you look at the charts, the true "head and shoulders" formation on M15 occurred about 29 or 30 bars back and the "right shoulder" broke up about a bar later or so. Then from there it became a pure S/R play on M15. The funny thing about all these "patterns" is that they are very subjective on when they form and what they really are. If you look at H1, we have just recently "poured out" of a cup and handle formation,,, which by the way formed as the result of "pouring out" of another cup and handle formation.

If you were to look at it thorugh Elliot waves or pitchforks, or some other strategy, there are a million ways to interpret this chart and the one on M15.

Here's the thing. Those are all just another form of "self fulfilling" prophecy of some sort. They really don't have any more value than any other such formation, strategy, tool, etc., etc. THAT is why we don't use them. It's the same with extremely long term S/R levels. I have seen charts with (and I have used charts with) S/R levels from years back and cluttered up my charts making them all but impossible to read.

There is a thread here on FF titled "Charts on Drugs or works of Art? (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=185027)" started by PorkPie. Neat thread, but it demonstrates what I'm talking about. And, before you ask yes there are people actually trading some of those charts.

This thread is about trading from simplicity using the bare minimum of indicators and P/A with NOTHING else really to make the decisions. Why would I pursue that sort of a strategy. Simple, Moving Averages are the most common form of "self fulfilling" prophecy that exist and people use them in ALL SORTS of strategies, but they USE THEM MORE than any other indicator I can think of. In addition, I have a really good friend who uses a similar strategy that makes more in a month than most do in a year and last week did the same in a week. IT SIMPLY WORKS.

And that is all we are after, something that works with the LEAST possible amount of subjectivity. You will always have to have some, because there is no truly mechanical system that works in all markets, but this strategy, if used properly DOES.

It works in trending markets, ranging markets and in what some would call "choppy" markets as long as the swings are wide enough. BUT, the "Three Main Signals" are enough to take one from complete ignorance of trading to complete mastery of a simple strategy in a SHORT TIME and help them become consistent and consistently profitable.

SO,, love to have your input, but ditch that other stuff fast. It only adds complexity and confusion.

We do appreciate the input and your interest though and hope you will stick around and help people learn and master something really simple and powerful.

I have attached a chart here below that demonstrates what I mean. AND, if you look at the charts for the strategy, you will see that price is attempting a reversal here. I would wait for it to finish it's retrace to possibly the H1 10 EMA AT WHICH POINT WE HAVE A PERFECT H1 SHORT entry on the "Touch."

I would expect it to bounce there pretty hard, THEN decide what it's REALLY going to do. So watch it until then. Should happen soon.

OK,, gotta run off for one more personal thing today. I'll be back later in the day guys.

Great work helping each other out! Awesome,,, just awesome!

Thanks again Dane for the input, please stick to the rules of the thread so we don't end up confusing anyone.
Attached Image
  • #278
  • Mar 22, 2010 11:24am Mar 22, 2010 11:24am
Quoting eclayf
Boy am I happy with what I see on the thread today. Everyone's playing nice, helping each other, getting along, trying to follow the rules of The Dance and the thread,,,, awesome, just awesome. Can't tell you how happy it makes me. Makes giving back all the more "worth it."



Everything is fine yuine, thank you. Just have a few more things today to deal with, so I can only drop in for a few. Slow is a good thing. A very good thing. Just ask Endroute how many times I have almost "been there" and then gave in to the "gotta get it NOW" attitude...
ah yes. it did go in my way initially for about 10pips. as the bar closed i was tabbing to my platform to move SL to the close of previous bar but BOOM in less than 3secs as i was entering my new SL, the bar shot past 35SMA and i was already in the red before i could do anything. sometimes crap does happen. take it with a pinch of salt i guess.
  • #279
  • Mar 22, 2010 11:32am Mar 22, 2010 11:32am
Quoting eclayf
OK,, gotta run off for one more personal thing today. I'll be back later in the day guys.
Hi Clay,

It seems you are in some sort of mission today...is it a running mission..hope everything is fine with you..

Regards
  • #280
  • Edited 5:11pm Mar 22, 2010 11:59am | Edited 5:11pm
Hi clay

I apologise for posting that about the head and shoulders. wont happen again, i have read the whole thread it just slipped my mind a bit.

i clearly have to read your manual again and the whole thread again!!!
will do that asap!!!

I did enter a long trade on gbpusd on the first touch of the 10ema on the 15min chart, but i see there could be some resistance ahead like the RN...

thanks for being straight forward with me appreciate that, and i need that!!!
been stuffing around alot last couple of weeks, from one strategy to the other and slowly blowing my account... your journal has inspired me alot!!!

your strategy is a really good one, and i know if im disciplined(by the rules), patient, and consistent and not getting ahead of myself the goal will be achieved!!! and the goal would be to consistantly making good pips.

thanks once again, hope all is well!!!


cheers
dane
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU touch trade.png Size: 72 KB
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