Commodity Currencies: AUD, CAD and NZD | Page 6 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF and GBP/NZD thread 126 replies

Milking 4 pairs AUD/NZD, EUR/GBP,NZD/CAD & AUD/CAD for a living 38 replies

best broker for EUR/GBP and AUD/NZD/CAD cross 6 replies

NZD/JPY AUD/NZD basket 3 replies

Attachments: Commodity Currencies: AUD, CAD and NZD
Exit Attachments

Commodity Currencies: AUD, CAD and NZD

  • #101
  • Mar 18, 2010 8:55pm Mar 18, 2010 8:55pm
Sentiment:- Bullish
Reason:-

  1. Fundamental – its fundamental is strong and it has correlation to AUDUSD strength.
  2. Technical – The major trend is up, but having pullback.

To do:-

  1. I will monitor the movement of NZDUSD on H1. If C/S can cross the K/S and T/S upward, I think NZDUSD will resume its bullish journey.

http://myinvest888.files.wordpress.c...ng?w=484&h=247

  • #102
  • Mar 18, 2010 9:46pm Mar 18, 2010 9:46pm
Quoting bsupreme
Hi shahab8b.

True different strokes for differrent folks. Personally I perfer contextual analysis picking my side on fundamentals and waiting for the technical setup. I use to trade purely technical trying to play both sides to squeeze every pip I could and had a very expensive lesson as I'm sure most of us have had. lol

I don't mind being patient the market will always be here but my account will not if I'm irrational and always flipping my position. I guess that was my lesson.

I only watch 1h and daily charts now. I use my downtime to scalp...

thanx for the articles, they were interesting.
  • #103
  • Mar 18, 2010 9:47pm Mar 18, 2010 9:47pm
Quoting myinvest888
I remain bullish sentiment on NZDUSD because all of higher time frames shows bullishness and usually NZDUSD has correlation with AUDUSD strength
http://myinvest888.files.wordpress.c...ng?w=484&h=248
it seems you are on the right side.
  • #104
  • Mar 18, 2010 9:56pm Mar 18, 2010 9:56pm
A/U
bullish for now
but I'm looking for a break of s at .9175 to sell
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au1a1a.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #105
  • Edited 3:17am Mar 19, 2010 3:05am | Edited 3:17am
You might appreciate this as well. During the EUR/USD pressure today CAD didn't lose any of it's weight according to the CERI.

http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/f...rex-rates/ceri

Other good stuff for CAD and other pairs.

http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/fxeconostats/ca


I'm think yesterday didn't indicate weakness in the CAD, NZD, AUD I think it was a dollar surge based on the EUR news(I didn't check the USD index though). Their x/JPY support has been solid all week even when facing EUR and GBP downward pressure. EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD all at new annual lows. Some people think the EUR/USD 1.35 range won't provide strong support.

The EUR/USD almost hit my negative weekly projected t3 fib 1.358 and the GBP is back down to week open support, as of the start of this euro session.

There might be more good buys on the AUD, NZD, CAD coming soon once the EUR finds solid ground.

I'm staying out until I see better EUR GBP support leading to positive correlation with the AUD, NZD, CAD.
  • #106
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:02am Mar 20, 2010 9:02am
U/Cad,
I prefer to wait for U/Cad to break above R at 1.0235 to buy , the hidden bearish divergence is one think I took a note of,
but overall I think U/Cad is bottoming considering the COT report and USDX bullish count
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc1h.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad2a.png Size: 69 KB
  • #107
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:24pm Mar 20, 2010 9:24pm
Sentiment:- Bearish
Reason:-

  1. Fundamental – its fundamental is very strong.
  2. Technical – The major trend is down, but having pullback. I will be very cautious because I believe the trend is over-extended and expecting a strong pullback.

To do:-

  1. Swing trading – I will monitor the movement of USDCAD on H1. If C/S can cross the T/S and K/S downward, I think USDCAD will resume its bearish journey.
  2. Intraday trading – No intraday trading due to pullback.

http://myinvest888.files.wordpress.c...ng?w=484&h=247

  • #108
  • Mar 21, 2010 10:26am Mar 21, 2010 10:26am
A/U

for now stay bullish against S at .9120, , sell a break of s at .9090
look for topping around .9250-93
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au3b.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au3c.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #109
  • Mar 21, 2010 10:35am Mar 21, 2010 10:35am
take a look at this weekly inverted hammer,
if Gold starts falling expect a widespread USD strength
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold2a.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #110
  • Mar 21, 2010 4:51pm Mar 21, 2010 4:51pm
I think you're right for watching XAU/USD.

I've been making too large of posts on these thread so I simply suggest the classic arbitrage equation for any possible insight to help your x/USD trades.

a/b x c/a = c/b

eg.
AUD/USD x USD/JPY = AUD/JPY
or
EUR/USD / AUD/USD = EUR/AUD

This is a very powerful tool if you've studied the forex market as a whole.

I'm staying away from USD quote pairs this week for numerous reasons.
  • #111
  • Mar 21, 2010 5:24pm Mar 21, 2010 5:24pm
Aud is bearish this week for first time since the beginning of Feb, the open under the weekly PP should bring it down into 9090. The weekly close under 9173 is also bearish to me, i will be taking profit on some shorts at 9090 and holding the other half for a break of 9090 which will indicate the start of a downtrend to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.GIF Size: 22 KB
  • #112
  • Mar 21, 2010 5:32pm Mar 21, 2010 5:32pm
my trade set up are as follows:

SELL high on A/U
BUY Dip on U/Cad

based on this set up condition:
here are my pending orders:


Sell limit AUDUSD at .9233 (weekly R1) and .9320 (weekly R2) SL=.9400 TP=TBD

Buy limit USDCAD at 1.0078 (weekly S1) SL=1.00 TP=TBD
  • #113
  • Mar 21, 2010 5:44pm Mar 21, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting amyc
Aud is bearish this week for first time since the beginning of Feb, the open under the weekly PP should bring it down into 9090. The weekly close under 9173 is also bearish to me, i will be taking profit on some shorts at 9090 and holding the other half for a break of 9090 which will indicate the start of a downtrend to me.
hi amyc,
I still think we may get better short entry on A/U , I put my sell limit order on weekly R1 and
R2, I hope that the train wont leave without me on board
  • #114
  • Mar 21, 2010 5:45pm Mar 21, 2010 5:45pm
Quoting myinvest888
Sentiment:- Bearish
Reason:-

  1. Fundamental – its fundamental is very strong.
  2. Technical – The major trend is down, but having pullback. I will be very cautious because I believe the trend is over-extended and expecting a strong pullback.

To do:-

  1. Swing trading – I will monitor the movement of USDCAD on H1. If C/S can cross the T/S and K/S downward, I think USDCAD will resume its bearish journey.
  2. Intraday trading – No intraday trading due to pullback.

http://myinvest888.files.wordpress.c...ng?w=484&h=247...

what is your bearish target on USDCAD?
  • #115
  • Mar 21, 2010 5:47pm Mar 21, 2010 5:47pm
Quoting bsupreme
I think you're right for watching XAU/USD.

I've been making too large of posts on these thread so I simply suggest the classic arbitrage equation for any possible insight to help your x/USD trades.

a/b x c/a = c/b

eg.
AUD/USD x USD/JPY = AUD/JPY
or
EUR/USD / AUD/USD = EUR/AUD

This is a very powerful tool if you've studied the forex market as a whole.

I'm staying away from USD quote pairs this week for numerous reasons.
hi bsupreme,
would you mind explaining more about you arbitrage system,
  • #116
  • Mar 21, 2010 5:49pm Mar 21, 2010 5:49pm
Quoting amyc
Aud is bearish this week for first time since the beginning of Feb, the open under the weekly PP should bring it down into 9090. The weekly close under 9173 is also bearish to me, i will be taking profit on some shorts at 9090 and holding the other half for a break of 9090 which will indicate the start of a downtrend to me.
what is your high for this week on A/U and E/U, G/U based on your charts?
  • #117
  • Edited 6:16pm Mar 21, 2010 6:05pm | Edited 6:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
what is your high for this week on A/U and E/U, G/U based on your charts?
I think that any moves down will happen early this week, this is bc of the position of the S&P, Monday and Tuesday should be down days for it which should take the currencies with it. For au I don't think we will get much higher than 9170, if even that, before heading to 9090, i took shorts at 9154 this morning.
EU should move to 1.3460 early this week and then i think make a lower low at 1.3409, bc of the position of the friday close I don't see much upside at all for it early this week, it could make it back to the weekly PP but I doubt it, I am holding shorts in that from 1.38 last week.

GU should move down into 1.4922 this week but bc of the position of friday close it has more chance of swinging back up to weekly PP, no trades in it.

I can't give specific sell points days in advance bc support and resistance is dynamic in my charts and constantly moving with time. My sell point on Sunday will be different to Monday and then different to Tuesday etc.
  • #118
  • Mar 21, 2010 6:10pm Mar 21, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting amyc
I think that any moves down will happen early this week, this is bc of the position of the S&P, Monday and Tuesday should be down days for it which should take the currencies with it. For au I don't think we will get much higher than 9170, if even that, before heading to 9190, i took shorts at 9154 this morning.
EU should move to 1.3460 early this week and then i think make a lower low at 1.3409, bc of the position of the friday close I don't see much upside at all for it early this week, it could make it back to the weekly PP but I doubt it, I...
thanx amyc for the explanation, that's my issue now, I closed my shorts on last hr of Fri, I didn't want to hold to them during weekend, I'm bearish on A/U and considering what you said my sell limit orders wont get filled, may be I enter manually, lets see the PA,
good luck on your trades
  • #119
  • Mar 21, 2010 6:30pm Mar 21, 2010 6:30pm
Gold: sell limit at 1118
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold1f.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #120
  • Mar 22, 2010 6:44am Mar 22, 2010 6:44am
it seems the bearish count for A/U and N/U is strong as we expected,
there is a good chance my previous orders wont get filled, I
changed my sell limit orders for A/U to weekly pivot at .9165 and N/U at .7077
0 traders viewing now