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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #218,841
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:44am Mar 19, 2010 8:44am
Quoting Geppy
Just took some shorts at 137.45 targeting 136.50 once again. This is a slightly aggressive trade with stop at 138.04 and not recommended to those that can't handle the potential loss.

I've had an extremely good week and want to simply continue it
Fantastic trade. Did you pick 137.45 because it's 50% of the down move?
  • #218,842
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:52am Mar 19, 2010 8:52am
Quoting quecee5
Looking at GU's monthly chart if it doesn't close above 1.56 by month end it has the potential to fall to as low as 1.40. . .

So I would be very careful with longing GJ at this point. . .
139.30/40 should be formiable resistance and even on a spike to 140.40/65/70 I can't see it going much higher until GU shows signs that it has craved out a bottom. . .

Even looking at UJ monthly chart the candle pattern shows bearish sentiments and esp. with last month candle closing. . . can't see GJ going higher this I looked to short more on any attempts...
ya gu can fall to 1.40 even further down to 1.38 there. But my view the upside not yet down...i think should up again touch 1.54 there 1st...therefore i don't think it can break the previous low 1st...
  • #218,843
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:55am Mar 19, 2010 8:55am
Quoting special0nefx
If the big boys is looking for bullish, i think possibly the best price should be 136 there...then push all the way to 141 there...
Honestly I'm thinkn much much ower. . .

Me and a senior trader had a discussion early this a.m. regarding were we are in terms of EW potential. My view is we are in wave 5 and price points to 116 and his view is we are still in a corrective stage of the whole move down from 251. . .

Only probelem is we both can't see and impulsive c wave going off the low of 132 if we are in fact in c of abc. . .

Me I see us in wave 5 specifically wave 3 of 5 and in wave 3 i see we just completed wave 4 up to 139 and honestly I see wave 5 ending below 130 more like 125 then back up to check resistance at 133/135 area then down too 116 and below. . .

If you look at the monthly chart price is pointing directly at 116 and even lower IMO. . .

So it's still up for debat abc correction or wave with a new low. . . To far in the future to decide however we must be looking for the larger trend so we know how we should be trading long-term. . .
  • #218,844
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:59am Mar 19, 2010 8:59am
Quoting special0nefx
ya gu can fall to 1.40 even further down to 1.38 there. But my view the upside not yet down...i think should up again touch 1.54 there 1st...therefore i don't think it can break the previous low 1st...
Well right now I see a trip back to 150.30 area the bottom of the ascending channel which will be the deciding factor where we go from there. . . It appears the move up was a false break off that channel so far and has been rejected nicely at the weekly 5 sma same as GJ. . .

Until I see a weekly close above that shorts look to be the way to go and treating this up move as corrective seems to be giving us clues to the overall direction. . .
  • #218,845
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:01am Mar 19, 2010 9:01am
Quoting quecee5
Honestly I'm thinkn much much ower. . .

Me and a senior trader had a discussion early this a.m. regarding were we are in terms of EW potential. My view is we are in wave 5 and price points to 116 and his view is we are still in a corrective stage of the whole move down from 251. . .

Only probelem is we both can't see and impulsive c wave going off the low of 132 if we are in fact in c of abc. . .

Me I see us in wave 5 specifically wave 3 of 5 and in wave 3 i see we just completed wave 4 up to 139 and honestly I see wave 5 ending below...
if UJ breaks the trend line from since '07, that may give an early warning sign, a double bottom at 80 may give it enough strength to reverse trends.
  • #218,846
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:08am Mar 19, 2010 9:08am
Quoting Geppy
Just took some shorts at 137.45 targeting 136.50 once again. This is a slightly aggressive trade with stop at 138.04 and not recommended to those that can't handle the potential loss.

I've had an extremely good week and want to simply continue it
Quoting special0nefx
I'm not sure about it, what i seen here. If price H1 close above 137.50 may visit 138.50 again.
Not bad, eh buddy?
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,847
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:10am Mar 19, 2010 9:10am
Quoting Beljevina
Fantastic trade. Did you pick 137.45 because it's 50% of the down move?
Honestly no... it's not always easy for me to describe my entries. Honestly, I'd JUST woken up and gotten out of the shower. It looked like a good entry. I realize I literally picked the top of that move and credit it 90% to luck. Regardless, I'm happy about it so far.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,848
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:14am Mar 19, 2010 9:14am
Quoting quecee5
Honestly I'm thinkn much much ower. . .

Me and a senior trader had a discussion early this a.m. regarding were we are in terms of EW potential. My view is we are in wave 5 and price points to 116 and his view is we are still in a corrective stage of the whole move down from 251. . .

Only probelem is we both can't see and impulsive c wave going off the low of 132 if we are in fact in c of abc. . .

Me I see us in wave 5 specifically wave 3 of 5 and in wave 3 i see we just completed wave 4 up to 139 and honestly I see wave 5 ending below 130...
Q,
I'm a bit confused with your bias as to long-term direction. If memory serves correct you were saying to me just a few days ago that you feel like we've put in a long-term bottom and you expect us to go up the rest of the year.

Am I confused or have you changed your bias?

Thanks!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,849
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:19am Mar 19, 2010 9:19am
Quoting Geppy
Honestly no... it's not always easy for me to describe my entries. Honestly, I'd JUST woken up and gotten out of the shower. It looked like a good entry. I realize I literally picked the top of that move and credit it 90% to luck. Regardless, I'm happy about it so far.
I've gotta record the trade and the circumstances - I find that's a great way to recall/remember setups. I caught 50 pips of the move - out right @ 136.527. Sterling weakness/shorting is clearly in place. Hat off to you once again.
  • #218,850
  • Edited 9:30am Mar 19, 2010 9:19am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting Geppy
I realize I literally picked the top of that move and credit it 90% to luck. Regardless, I'm happy about it so far.
Luck always has a part of it, but also your entry was on a confluence of 3 TLs that GY has been working off of most of the week, and a decent SR level, so it was an ideal spot to go in.

Nice work.



Quoting Fudomyo
136.50 prior support looks good as potential downside target for bounce, keeping an eye on the channel ltl 136.10 area as well.
TP target hit. 136.5

we could see more downside to this, but I'm done for the week.

hope everyone has a great weekend!
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  • #218,851
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:25am Mar 19, 2010 9:25am
Quoting quecee5
Honestly I'm thinkn much much ower. . .

Me and a senior trader had a discussion early this a.m. regarding were we are in terms of EW potential. My view is we are in wave 5 and price points to 116 and his view is we are still in a corrective stage of the whole move down from 251. . .

Only probelem is we both can't see and impulsive c wave going off the low of 132 if we are in fact in c of abc. . .

Me I see us in wave 5 specifically wave 3 of 5 and in wave 3 i see we just completed wave 4 up to 139 and honestly I see wave 5 ending below 130...
Q, If i follow my Weekly chart on EW count, my view is the wave 4 haven't finish where now we are only in wave B of 4 only. and is going finish soon to start new wave C... I'm not sure is correct or not my count. please advise
  • #218,852
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:26am Mar 19, 2010 9:26am
Yep, target of 136.50 just hit. Perhaps it was a bit conservative, but I have no complaints taking 95 pips out of her while on my way to my real job.

That's it for trading for me this week... couldn't if I wanted to. My awesome corporate job blocks metatrader, not the download but it refuses to establish a connection (if anyone has a workaround to that I'd love to know).

Like I said, I'll be looking for longs initially next week. I still don't see this mini bull run being over and honestly, my bias is moving toward a longer term (perhaps trend change) bull move. Things are simply aligning with the monthly which I still contest is ready for a bull move. The weekly is the last piece to the puzzle and as Q has pointed out, a close above weekly PP opens the door for more upward movement.

Let's see how we close today and analyze things on Sunday.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,853
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:29am Mar 19, 2010 9:29am
Quoting lexazver
My view of Cable is that if we can pass 1.533x area where we saw selling preassure today then it will continue upward, this is with combination of possible breakout of recent trading range and retest of upper trendline.

On the bearish side (which i prefer) i think we will chop chop chop consolidate around 1.53 and then start sliding down with ultimate target of course beeing the bottom channel trendline (around 1.5 atm) Im short at 1.5295 with stop at 1.5333 lets see how it plays out.

EDIT: added another short at 1.5313 SL at 1.5333 for everything....
just covered my short at 1.5070 for 325pips, maybe shoulod have waited abit more but im happy )
  • #218,854
  • Edited 9:35am Mar 19, 2010 9:33am | Edited 9:35am
Here's a very simple (the way I trade) 4H chart. Sure this trendline can be broken, but I don't think it's ready to yet.

I love trades like this but as I said before, I can't trade until next week. I love trades like this because I can buy aggressively at the trendline and keep a tight stop. If it breaks, I'm out immediately with minimal loss, but have given myself some awesome risk/reward with the potential upside.

If it breaks, I take a small loss and wait for a retracement and test of the trendline as resistance and sell like crazy. It doesn't take much to make your loss back.

To me, these are no brainer trades and we should all be taking advantage of them. I'll be buying aggressively next week hopefully still in this area and looking for 140.50, so 350-400 pips. That's plenty for me to tack it up as a stellar trading week.

Just my views looking ahead, I'll be around all day and I hope some of you will too (I get extremely bored with my all too easy job). But for those of you heading out, have a great weekend and go enjoy your pips!

Geppy
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check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,855
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:37am Mar 19, 2010 9:37am
not sure
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  • #218,856
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:37am Mar 19, 2010 9:37am
Q,
i post out this 2 possible chart i been count for. If for you you prefer which one? 1st or 2nd chart?

Myself choose the 2nd one...
Anyone what is your choice???...Welcome all comment...
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  • #218,857
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:39am Mar 19, 2010 9:39am
Quoting Geppy
Not bad, eh buddy?
nice call buddy...Happy pips pips...
  • #218,858
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:40am Mar 19, 2010 9:40am
Quoting Geppy
Q,
I'm a bit confused with your bias as to long-term direction. If memory serves correct you were saying to me just a few days ago that you feel like we've put in a long-term bottom and you expect us to go up the rest of the year.

Am I confused or have you changed your bias?

Thanks!
I haven't changed my bias just need more development to convince me that a low is already in and we are in fact still in a corrective mode from 251 area. . .

That's why I mentioned the conversation I had with another senior trader regarding EW analysis. . .

The problem I'm having is if we are in corrective mode and 132 is the bottom of the b wave the c wave should be impulsive and we are not seeing that. . .

That's the only issue I'm having right now. . . so need more development to confirm GJ's overall pattern. . .

Otherwise i'll trade day to day, week to week. . .
  • #218,859
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:45am Mar 19, 2010 9:45am
Quoting quecee5
I haven't changed my bias just need more development to convince me that a low is already in and we are in fact still in a corrective mode from 251 area. . .

Otherwise i'll trade day to day, week to week. . .
Ok great, that's exactly where my mind is at. I just can't get myself to commit to a long-term trend just yet. Hence, I trade day to day and week to week. I can't complain, it's going splendidly... but I sure would like to have a long-term view solidified.

I think we could definitely see an impulsive move up next week. This current retracement will be aligning the 4H to the daily and also helping the daily unwind a bit since our most recent up moves. I think by Monday we'll be ready to start heading north again and a push through 139.00 could give us the impulsive move we're waiting for.

I know I probably sound like a broken record, but I'll be looking to build longs starting Sunday given the right prices, or really... the right time. I have a feeling you'll be right there with me if this WPP holds.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,860
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:46am Mar 19, 2010 9:46am
basically, i agree. however, i do not see signs for a bottom yet so i only took partial profits.

135.55 area is the last frontier in terms of looking for longs; if we go significantly below, bye bye longs...

Quoting Geppy
Yep, target of 136.50 just hit....
Nihil Sine Deo.
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