Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

i just like trades on different time frames is all. i'd rather hold trades for weeks/months. im looking for this next leg down to hit 120 (1,600 pips).

High possibility we will see a daily doji here. Contemplating buying jpy pair is not a bad idea. They are really in a tight spot. In this game of G and J tug of war..my guess is we will close daily @ around 138.5. I could be wrong

Put your hand up if you thought that was a scary GJ down move that just drags on! Veteran GJ traders will recognize the move and PA as classic GBPJPY - once you can identify it - either before it starts, or once underway, it is a license to print money. With skill, you can short from the tops as it moves down - do not scalp with buys as it's travelling down - you'll get burned, or, if you don't, you'll be clenching your teeth, and it's just not worth it. I find it absolutely essential to also have up in M5 windows UJ, GU, and EU: as they descend and bump down, there's often a delayed reaction and GJ follows, depending on which one of UJ/GU/EU it's syncing with. Also, have a good pivot/S/R/Fibs indi for each of the pairs - you'll be able to see it pause at most of the points, and that will reflect in GJ moves. Also, draw trend lines from relevant candle highs/lows: GY is pretty good about respecting the TLs. With experience, you can wager more than 2% of you account on these down moves, and create healthy returns.

I prematurely exited about 137.1 (from 138.2, still keeping 139.2 shorts), and then tried watching PA, buying @ 137.1 on a slight bounce up - I should have known better, because watching UJ and GU, one or both had not yet 'landed' on a good support, hence, the potential for more downage in GY. But, I did short a heavy set of lots on the way down, so it's all smiles. Once we're confirmed to head up, will buy more, with a BE SL. Another clue is that the move to 137.1 was about 70/80 pips down, which is short of what GY usually likes to do for major moves.

P.S. - We or may not yet be done on this down move ... 136.6 still calls - may or may not visit it in the next hour or 2.

It looks like a lot of energy (ie volume) was consumed the 137.70 - 138.0 area.

NM

Just closed my shorts although I believe we'll most likely see another 50-100 pips down. The 1H looks a bit oversold and due for a slight pop up, but the 4H definitely still has some room to push lower.

My prediction would be a push higher and then another drop before I start considering longs. I hope it happens today and I can start building a long position for next week, but if not, that's fine too.

I was able to snag 160 pips or so since last night playing this short so I can't complain.

Off topic... building a slight long position on EUR/USD at these 1.3570 levels. We're at the 61.8% fib retracement on the weekly and I think we could see some serious upward momentum. The 1H also looks oversold and has some serious MACD divergence going on. Take a look if interested.

Lastly, for anyone interested and those that keep reminding me... I plan to update (and hopefully keep up on) my blog this weekend. I'll probably move it to wordpress and bring is up to date.

[quote=Beljevina;3566667]Put your hand up if you thought that was a scary GJ down move that just drags on! Veteran GJ traders will recognize the move and PA as classic GBPJPY - once you can identify it - either before it starts, or once underway, it is a license to print money. With skill, you can short from the tops as it moves down - do not scalp with buys as it's travelling down - you'll get burned, or, if you don't, you'll be clenching your teeth, and it's just not worth it. I find it absolutely essential to also have up in M5 windows UJ, GU, and EU: as they descend and bump down, there's often a delayed reaction and GJ follows, depending on which one of UJ/GU/EU it's syncing with. Also, have a good pivot/S/R/Fibs indi for each of the pairs - you'll be able to see it pause at most of the points, and that will reflect in GJ moves. Also, draw trend lines from relevant candle highs/lows: GY is pretty good about respecting the TLs. With experience, you can wager more than 2% of you account on these down moves, and create healthy returns.quote]


Great analagy Beljevina

I have been watching this thread for some time now and I have to say all the major contributers have their sh?t together. At this point I do believe the push will be to the upside. When UJ starts to be more of an influence than it has of late then GJ will follow if the Brits can overcome their economic falicy. (they are almost inline with Greece these days, the only thing they have going is they may be pulling out of a hole) However that dont count the manipulation and considering that its all in the air. Keep up the great work guys.

Pip Hunterr

Be careful shorting from here, 137 is hard s/r zone, I'm closing my shorts here. But the bottom of the channel is around 136.

The 50 DAY SMA is around 140.... just to add to the overhead resistance....

NM

boring day
closed my short at 137..+220 pips
i will wait for next week to short gbp/jpy again

what is resistance 137.2 now?

Good afternoon all.
Possible movement downwards GBP.

Just took some shorts at 137.45 targeting 136.50 once again. This is a slightly aggressive trade with stop at 138.04 and not recommended to those that can't handle the potential loss.

I've had an extremely good week and want to simply continue it

I'm not sure about it, what i seen here. If price H1 close above 137.50 may visit 138.50 again.

Agreed... and it definitely could happen. It's an aggressive trade and I definitely stated that up front (not for the blindly following newbies... no offense anyone).

Woke up this morning and was definitely glad I pulled out of my USD/CAD longs last night at 1.0170

Anyway still dancing around and maybe you're right also cos if going down. 136 is play in hand ...good luck bro

What's important today is where price closes. . . It will be important for next weeks play.

The wpp is at 136.53 and a close above or below is important for next week and equally important as we draw near month end (mpp 138.50).

Today we may see wild moves since a lot of options expire today so lots of positioning by the big boys as we move into end of Q1.

I will say this big boys are bullish the market and will look to position at the best price for longs which may drive the market lower initially in to Q2.

If the big boys is looking for bullish, i think possibly the best price should be 136 there...then push all the way to 141 there...

GU looks scary...4 candle almost in the same high and low...Any blow of 1 direction really a big one Kaboommmm

Looking at GU's monthly chart if it doesn't close above 1.56 by month end it has the potential to fall to as low as 1.40. . .

So I would be very careful with longing GJ at this point. . .
139.30/40 should be formiable resistance and even on a spike to 140.40/65/70 I can't see it going much higher until GU shows signs that it has craved out a bottom. . .

Even looking at UJ monthly chart the candle pattern shows bearish sentiments and esp. with last month candle closing. . . can't see GJ going higher this I looked to short more on any attempts at higher price. . .

Maybe that explain the low vlume we've been seeing and maybe the big boys are looking for much lower price to jump in at. . .

Good luck in trading the week is ending and month end draws near will be interesting to see how we fair at month end closing. . .