USDCAD trend reversal?

Olu: lovely speech. I suspect that it may have been one that you used when you received your OBE

Profitable pips to you!

thanx england33, that gave me the chance to close the longs from 1.0745 at 1.0220 and took shorts at 1.0220 , you did a nice all on gap

Scarecru,
Let's see what comes from the Fed tommorrow. These are far reaching events occurring now, with implications for years to come.
The market has been moving sideways for 6 weeks without clear direction.

The main move is yet to play. The mood in Washington is becoming sober, the economy the primary driver of expectations remains muted.

Global fragmentation has occurred and economic blocks are forming. This is no longer the world that prevailed for the past two decades. It will take some time for the new order to reveal itself.

It is what it is, but it was a disappointment. Hope you young people enjoy living in debt. Because that will be the only way you will ever own anything, renting from the bank, with your name on the deed.

Bit gloomy today.

All is cyclical FOTO, & this too shall pass! (the USD bearishness- not the cycle)! You shall be a prophet in the land of the free. I have mentioned many times that you are right in the long term (& that I was a BFer with scalps temporarily).

The misfortune arises when people with honour,beliefs & the intestinal fortitude to pursue these values partake in a new system in which there are new rules that the former are not informed about!

This a.m. heard a news clip re: Lehman Bros (have not checked out further reports & intend to do so later). Seems they may have been utilizing the same accounting practices as Enron.
A 2nd blog gives info on PRoC WWW.babypips.com/blogs/currency_currents/your_daily_recommended_allowan.html

As a child ( more years than I care to remember) I saw a cartoon that suggested the bullrush was a survivor in a hurricane rather than a great oak tree; since the former bent in the direction with the winds & the latter attempted to withstand those gales & was broken.

Kind thoughts your way FOTO.

Hey Shahabs!

That was a pretty, on the button call! Just out of curiosity, you closed longs from 1.0745 at 1.0220? Do you mean you were long the CAD from there or the USD?

Happy trading all!

Laaate,

Veng.

I be longing ( have since 83).

Highs Jan 7 & Aug 2 : 90.61 & 90.32 respectively.

My thoughts: if these are respected then Loonie (us/cad) could retrace.
Risk-aversion or USD strength? Don't know/ don't care.

If not respected, then parity as called waaayyy baaack!
As FOTO stated: the rules to the fx mkts have changed!
That is why I cling to the teks for week to week decisions.

long USDCAD, from 1.0745 to 10220 then short from 1.0220 till now

I wrote my calls at my threads :"commodity currencies " or "COT weekly report"

There's a nice rounded bottom on the 1 hour USD/CAD chart that's developing; not sure if anyone wants to go long USD after the FOMC earlier though lol... I'm still long and strong the USD but hedging myself with some smaller plays until the big move comes.

Hi Scarecru,

I underestimated the rot in the U.S. that is for sure. In my generation there were those who not only put their lives on the line for America, but some lost their lives for America.
Out of those ranks came leaders who put Country before profit. Sadly the generation that followed has put material wealth before Country. Integrity is something that keeps the economy afloat. It is Trust/Ethics which is the foundation of business. Without it no contract is valid.

It is a serious afair when a Nation turns away from the principles that made it great. All the legalism cannot keep finance sound.

I also never thought America could turn to socialism as the easy way out.
The countries leaders are not only soft in the body they are soft in the head. Fancy words will not fix this.

The American public knows this as well.

Just so you know there are some trades on. I am short Euro/Cad and short Gbp/Cad. that's it.

FOTO: you should be getting some winners wrt long CAD versus respective crosses.

I am unable to understand why the CAD gets stronger-as well as Canadian fundamentals- ( when the old rules determined that a .85 cent loonie was good for Canadian business). As mentioned in prev posts- the old rules have changed. As you posted, values have as well.

My take is too much euphoria on the PRoC's supposedly accelerating economy. Speculators are grasping.

When this bubble bursts- then my friend, you will be vindicated!

I remain bearish sentiment on USDCAD because it is technically and fundamentally very strong. Nevertheless, I will be very cautious because I believe the trend is over-extended and expecting a strong pullback.
http://myinvest888.files.wordpress.c...ng?w=484&h=248

Good morning Scarecru,
Thoughts for today is that the Cad continues to show strength as a flight to quality trade. The market also appears to have the mindset that when push comes to shove Governments will choose inflating problems away rather then biting the bullet of cutting fiscal expenditures. Commodity currencies benifit. (my prior thinking was that ongoing deflationary pressure was stronger. Market fear of inflation is trumping the deflation analysis)

I remain short the Euro/Cad and the Gbp/Cad since the problems and potential for the Euro to have member states exit is real. The talk of Greece turning to the IMF for help means that the Greek government is already exploring an exit strategy from the Euro. The cuts to spending will not fly in Greece as they are too draconian for Papandreo to keep his constituency.

I am still believing there will be other States potentialy leaving the Euro as the culture clash between Northern Europe and Southern Europe is irreconcilable.

Much as the differences between the U.S. and China are irreconcilable.

The ongoing weaknesses in Europe and N. America will diminish global trade.

Duces prior post about the world getting smaller is on target.

These are the ideas that continue to guide the pairs chosen to trade. I think in currency trading being at the right place is more important then the fanciest analysis.

Would also add that the GBP should be vulnerable because the Banks have heavy exposure in mainland Europe and will be affected by events. Euro/Gbp as it unwinds strengthens the Gbp to a degree but it has already retraced some of the upmove. I would rather be early then miss a potential move, using a wide stop allows for large volatility to be accomodated. But that also means enduring the frequently encountered pain and is not for everyone.


addendum: Long term charts, monthlies, have a profit target of 1.3500 on the Euro/Cad short. If the 1.3800 level caves then there is a quick 300 pip profit potential, before reassessing the next leg.

12 noon post EURO/USD hit an airpocket late morning. EURO/CAD took out the 138.00 support but the USD/CAD has jumped. Lot of shorts above this level so could get a big short squeeze if the EURO/USD keeps falling.

Pretty dicey to make a good call. Obviously somethings up with the EURO and what that impact will be on the USD/CAD will be called by the Equities.

Have put on a EURO/USD short on the weakness. Break of the 136.00 level. It was on the breakout so if it becomes profitable by end of day then the trend is reestablished for a stronger USD. Anytime a breakout trade holds profitabile then move has some power in it. Most breakouts fail but the ones that do not can be meaningful.

1)There was a shift in the market conscience today. Maybe imaginary maybe real but closed all long Cad open positions. Sometimes just have to follow the gut instinct. Truly have no idea about tommorrow.

2)What is coming out of Europe is hardly the stuff of a reserve currency.
Remain short EURO/USD on the break of 1.3600

FOTO: what criteria for you determines shift in conscience? ( this query is respectful & an attempt to learn & not confrontational).
In the past, my gut instincts let to crappy results.

WRT Euro: too much internal tension between the countries.
Much negative press recently.

With all due respect; Loonie- I still favour parity before reversal (solely on teks- this I am able to understand). However; fundamentally,I defer to you & appreciate your wisdom to temper my misguided fantasies of the LOONIE being the global currency!

Sentiment:- Bearish
Reason:-

1. Fundamental – its fundamental is very strong.
2. Technical – The major trend is down, but having pullback. I will be very cautious because I believe the trend is over-extended and expecting a strong pullback.

To do:-

1. I will monitor the movement of USDCAD on H1. If C/S can cross the T/S downward, I think USDCAD will resume its bearish journey.

http://myinvest888.files.wordpress.c...ng?w=484&h=248

Morning Scarecru,
Interesting you should ask about gut instinct. Asked myself the same question. I think there was a difference in the way price was trading. Some kind of a different pattern that was picked up on.
Yesterday the USD/CAD just didn't seem to have the same urgency to sell down. Where a pair ends up for the day is important, but how it gets there has meaning as well.

The logical part of the mind said maybe the long awaited scenario would be tested by having a falling Euro. Which should put upwards pressure on the pair. Logical mind is not always listened to as a trader.

I watch price a lot, and there are some subtle shifts that occur as the market changes direction. The previously mentioned airpocket in the Euro suggested also that the ability to buy the EURO/USD was exhausted. Which is why I put on the break of the 136.00 level trade and held it overnite.

This morning at this time, this may seem smart, but last nite there was some serious questioning of the strategy.

Trading should not be about being right, but it does feel better when it happens. We all have our ego problems.

There are those who teach that a trader should have no emotional involvement, and a loss is the same as a win.
I think winning is better, just made of flesh and blood.

As to the Loonie being the next global currency, don't be envious of the States. Just look at our Congress and think there but for the grace of God go I.