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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #861
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:24pm Mar 18, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting markmm
I had a long and got margined 50% out by Oanda (on my 100 buck account lol). Ill be sticking to in and out shots risking a few %.
I should have clarified I wasn't trading orderflow or using any of the stuff here for this (very poor) trade. I simply went with gut feel and no stop, it is a micro account that I will use to test stuff.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #862
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:29pm Mar 18, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting markmm
Not every move is defenders or hunters, there are other market participants that can move price.
but he said (not only in this thread) that is the rejection itself that show if there is defense.
  • #863
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:30pm Mar 18, 2010 3:30pm
Quoting giraia_br
but he said (not only in this thread) that is the rejection itself that show if there is defense.
But wasn't that the 3 hr chart from a month or 2 ago? How do you know there was an option barrier at that level?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #864
  • Edited 4:29pm Mar 18, 2010 4:17pm | Edited 4:29pm
Quoting markmm
When I hear about orderflow trading it makes perfect sense, a bunch of stops being hit will push price in that direction, Im not saying it is a holy grail or is easy to trade but it just fits with my way of thinking and I will be focusing all my efforts on it.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with trading this way, thousands of traders have mastered skills like this (google it), but why choose an OTC to trade it on where you have no DOM, how many order flow traders are there trading spot? You're putting yourself at an unnecessary disadvantage even before you start, you're trading this strategy in the wrong market and it doesn't make any logical sense.
  • #865
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:28pm Mar 18, 2010 4:28pm
Quoting pipmutt
There's absolutely nothing wrong with trading this way, thousands of traders have mastered skills like this (google it), but why choose an OTC to trade it on where you have no DOM, how many order flow traders are there trading spot? You're putting yourself at an unnecessary disadvantage even before you start, you're trading this strategy in the wrong market and it doesn't make any logical sense.

I'm sorry but speculating about where orders might be isn't order flow trading in it's traditional sense, it's an attempt to adapt a strategy...
I think the DOM is a red herring, you can use price action to confirm the information from your sources,if you find that price reacts and confirms your source, then you can observe and look for ways to capitalise on that. If that is not traditional Orderflow trading then it isn't, but arguing over semantics is a waste of time.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #866
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:31pm Mar 18, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting markmm
I think the DOM is a red herring, you can use price action to confirm the information from your sources,if you find that price reacts and confirms your source, then you can observe and look for ways to capitalise on that. If that is not traditional Orderflow trading then it isn't, but arguing over semantics is a waste of time.
Sources?

Anyway, you say you're using price action to confirm information from these sources, and calling DOM a red herring!! Seriously?

No offence but have you actually watched order flow traders in action (and I don't mean trying to guess where stops are)? Please, just google it and watch a couple of youtube vids......
  • #867
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:34pm Mar 18, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting pipmutt
Sources?
Of where orders might be....

Its quiet tonight, I think everyone has left and there all talking somewhere else.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #868
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:43pm Mar 18, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting pipmutt
Sources?

Anyway, you say you're using price action to confirm information from these sources, and calling DOM a red herring!! Seriously?

No offence but have you actually watched order flow traders in action (and I don't mean guessing where stops are!)? Please, just google it and watch a couple of youtube vids......
I have looked, not the style of trading I am looking at. Anyway its early days for me Im researching all possibilities. Im not going to be another drone that blindly follows someone, and discounts all other way of trading.

How do you trade btw? Trend trader?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #869
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:54pm Mar 18, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting pipmutt
There's absolutely nothing wrong with trading this way, thousands of traders have mastered skills like this (google it), but why choose an OTC to trade it on where you have no DOM, how many order flow traders are there trading spot? You're putting yourself at an unnecessary disadvantage even before you start, you're trading this strategy in the wrong market and it doesn't make any logical sense.

I'm sorry i just had to cut in here. It seems that in every one of your post include the statement that there is no DOM. There is. Just because it doesn't have central exchange where EVERYBODY's transaction from bids to offers to time and sales can been seen doesn't mean there aren't something that is of value. DS has told what it is several times. You know, I've got this weird feeling that the beautiful word called "OTC" will actually become a blessing when one takes the time and effort. And the futures market OF trading is a whole different story.
  • #870
  • Mar 18, 2010 5:04pm Mar 18, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting lumesh
It seems that in every one of your post include the statement that there is no DOM. There is.
Not quite every post!

I think you'll find there isn't anything reliable you could use for spot that would come anywhere close to DOM. But why try and devise something to emulate it, why not just use the real thing in another more suitable market, is size the problem?
  • #871
  • Mar 18, 2010 6:34pm Mar 18, 2010 6:34pm
have any of you ever thought of things in reverse? retail is always trying to figure out the "big boys". Do you think that they know where retail is at? I am not saying there is no useful info on ifr or the dom, but believe one thing if to many retail are one direction biased there has to be a shake out and that info is quite aval.

just food for thought.
  • #872
  • Mar 18, 2010 6:37pm Mar 18, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting mr-T
have any of you ever thought of things in reverse? retail is always trying to figure out the "big boys". Do you think that they know where retail is at? I am not saying there is no useful info on ifr or the dom, but believe one thing if to many retail are one direction biased there has to be a shake out and that info is quite aval.

just food for thought.
Aka Oanda or FXCM orderbooks.
  • #873
  • Edited 7:05pm Mar 18, 2010 7:02pm | Edited 7:05pm
Quoting pipmutt
Not quite every post!

I think you'll find there isn't anything reliable you could use for spot that would come anywhere close to DOM. But why try and devise something to emulate it, why not just use the real thing in another more suitable market, is size the problem?
With the above, re studying DOM for its components:
I found my TL's all drawn from balance to read imbalance, from post #7.

No one literally uses the timed spacing between and price change of each of a broke r's adjustments of a candle, either, only that doesn't stop traders from watching active charts for hundreds of hours to unconsciously know it.
  • #874
  • Mar 18, 2010 7:47pm Mar 18, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting Darkstar
Their challenges do nothing to help anyone trying to learn this information and as such, will be going on my ignore list. I have better things to do with my time then read their nonsense...
Yeah, the ignore feature is nice. The thread feels so much shorter now lol. I can't see what 'they' are saying either good or bad. Fine with me. Good riddance really.

I too watched the market fall today on bad news in Euro. Aside from calling it a stop hunt, how much of the movement would you consider to be accelerated by longs running for cover? I know in the scheme of things it doesn't really matter, if there is bad news then you'll see flow out of the currency anyways.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I took the fall as an opportunity to accumulate more Euros at these lower prices. Here is how I am thinking about this. EU has fallen from the late last year highs because of the Greek crisis. Those who were long Euro's panicked and removed or lessened their stake in the currency. BUT, I see a message in the fact that the market has found support in this current range. It's almost as if the money has spoken to say "we don't like this Greece thing, but for now we don't think EU is worth less than ~$1.35USD.

Even if EU was still up nears it's highs, today's news still would have spawned outflows, but It's not a total macro deal breaker. I think you could easily make the case for EU bulls, and the bulls will most likely be found in the lower range of this consolidation. Common sense tells me they will want the best prices, especially if we're gonna see a 50% or ~850 pip pullback. It's happening slowly enough that this possible long will be the main income generator through mid year for those who like to carry, compound, add to their carrys in EU. I don't think EU will do much until the 25th at the EU summit.

The bulls did come into the market today after the fall. I didn't just blindly enter, I waited for them say buy. I'll wait for you DS in regards to talking about entry ideas specifically.
  • #875
  • Mar 18, 2010 8:01pm Mar 18, 2010 8:01pm
Hedgers buy declines and sell advances.

Everyone else trades with the trend if they want to stick around.

And the only uptrend atm is on a 1 minute chart.

Just my 2 cents.
  • #876
  • Mar 18, 2010 8:50pm Mar 18, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting Scotty B
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I took the fall as an opportunity to accumulate more Euros at these lower prices. Here is how I am thinking about this. EU has fallen from the late last year highs because of the Greek crisis. Those who were long Euro's panicked and removed or lessened their stake in the currency. BUT, I see a message in the fact that the market has found support in this current range. It's almost as if the money has spoken to say "we don't like this Greece thing, but for now we don't think EU is worth less than ~$1.35USD.

Even if...
I have to be honest I'm watching this trade carefully. I didn't expect it to fall this far, but given the news I suppose it was inevitable. The Greek PM is behaving stupidly. I think a deal will still get done, but we may be in for a rocky road between now and then. If we get below 3400 I'm probably just going to cut the trade.

Having said that, I think your analysis is spot on. There is a great deal of buy interest at these levels and down to 3400, so it should be ok. We just need some good news and well be back up in the 37s or 38s in short order. The market WANTS to go up, it just needs a reason...
  • #877
  • Edited 11:36pm Mar 18, 2010 10:18pm | Edited 11:36pm
Quoting Darkstar
I have to be honest I'm watching this trade carefully. I didn't expect it to fall this far, but given the news I suppose it was inevitable. The Greek PM is behaving stupidly. I think a deal will still get done, but we may be in for a rocky road between now and then. If we get below 3400 I'm probably just going to cut the trade.

Having said that, I think your analysis is spot on. There is a great deal of buy interest at these levels and down to 3400, so it should be ok. We just need some good news and well be back up in the 37s or 38s in short...
I'm still a little cloudy about separating out negative news flows combined with stopping momentum, but based on all the buying that took place in the 3650 to 3600 range, if the EU #'s coming out this morning are negative and selling again ensues, I think we'll see more long down bars. Maybe not though, because we are not that far from the bottom of the range and those who came in with bids are probably willing to hold with some DD in expectation of IMF(edit)
-->not helping Greece. Also, size at good prices will be easy to attain when everyone is fearful and selling into the hands of value traders below the current tight range. Sorry If I'm just babbling.

Next Thursday will be judgment day, if Greece get's sorted out then those who buy now will 1, attain the best prices and 2 are not that far from the breakout area anyways (the meaningful bottom).
  • #878
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:37pm Mar 18, 2010 10:37pm
Darkstar,

There was one thing you said the other night that I didn't understand. When you were showing us that option defense move/stop run, what did you mean when you said that the defenders stops were immaterial? Did the hunters go hunting just to cause that momentary volatility? Also, would they have had sell limits placed at 3805 to get liquid when the defenders stops were activated?
  • #879
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:46pm Mar 18, 2010 10:46pm
Feel like I'm talking to myself now... But regarding IFR through Oanda, does anybody have trouble accessing the content of many of the news stories that Oanda FX news spits out?

Right now for example there is an Item with this headline: Order Board: Huge EU option expiry

But there is no content in the news window when you click on it.
  • #880
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:54pm Mar 18, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting Scotty B
Feel like I'm talking to myself now... But regarding IFR through Oanda, does anybody have trouble accessing the content of many of the news stories that Oanda FX news spits out?

Right now for example there is an Item with this headline: Order Board: Huge EU option expiry

But there is no content in the news window when you click on it.
yeah, that happens to me from time to time.

Here is the text I have from that Head Line (NOTE: I did an edit on an email address that was in there)
Tokyo, March 19. --H<edit>@<removed>
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
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