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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #821
  • Mar 18, 2010 6:09am Mar 18, 2010 6:09am
Quoting Darkstar
...I make it look easy, and I suppose it is once you know what your looking for, but being able to find them and trade them effectively requires an extended period of study and a great deal of thought.

For those of you willing to take the time to peruse all my posts and glean the lessons they contain, the skill set is there for the taking.
Are there any particular forums in which you published posts that I should best focus on to learn about orderflow? Any other pointers to good material are also appreciated.

Orderflow is not something I have learned about so I'm starting at the beginning.

Thanks again,
Rob
  • #822
  • Edited 6:24am Mar 18, 2010 6:11am | Edited 6:24am
Quoting pipmutt
Did you find the most obvious recurring themes, chart patterns and price action, to be that unreliable then, or did you dismiss it simply because TA is what the majority use and we all know the majority lose?

As for reasons, if you can't identify a reason for a trade then you'd be making trades randomly (not to say that making random trades couldn't work of course! )

-
Mostly yes, I'm not aware of any chart pattern that would have good significance. Price action itself is just a way of reading what's happening and without it we wouldn't be talking about option levels, stop levels etc here.

There are few very well known chart patterns that work to some degree but not why most people think - there are much simpler reasons behind the movement than the patterns themselves (edit: IMHO) and that's why threads like this are important.

I didn't mean that I don't have a reason why enter trades, I meant that when a certain event is happening, I don't need to know the reason for why it's happening - I just need to know the probability of it leading to some other event.
  • #823
  • Mar 18, 2010 6:22am Mar 18, 2010 6:22am
Price patterns have the disadvantages that they are used to suck losers into a particular trade, see false breakouts becoming pin bars. Then people think the pin bar is a trade-able pattern on its own, when all it shows is a reversal, doesn't mean that reversal will continue.

If a patterns worked reliably then people would trade the crap out of it, what would happen then?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #824
  • Mar 18, 2010 6:36am Mar 18, 2010 6:36am
Quoting mikkom
Mostly yes, I'm not aware of any chart pattern that would have good significance.
ok, and understood about X, Y, Z and reasons, interesting to know and speculate about but not an integral part of strategy, pretty much same here for intraday trading.


Quoting markmm
Price patterns have the disadvantages that they are used to suck losers into a particular trade, see false breakouts becoming pin bars. Then people think the pin bar is a trade-able pattern on its own, when all it shows is a reversal, doesn't mean that reversal will continue.

If a patterns worked reliably then people would trade the crap out of it, what would happen then?
Like anything it depends on how you trade them, like mikkom said, perhaps it's a discussion best left for another time and place.
  • #825
  • Mar 18, 2010 7:06am Mar 18, 2010 7:06am
So...Darkstar. Do you think they might be hunting for stops below 650 this time?
  • #826
  • Mar 18, 2010 7:13am Mar 18, 2010 7:13am
Quoting pipmutt
ok, and understood about X, Y, Z and reasons, interesting to know and speculate about but not an integral part of strategy, pretty much same here for intraday trading.




Like anything it depends on how you trade them, like mikkom said, perhaps it's a discussion best left for another time and place.
Yeah probably.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #827
  • Mar 18, 2010 7:15am Mar 18, 2010 7:15am
a couple of things from my ex goldman sachs friend.

the size of the option mentioned needs to be seriously big in order for it to be defended with the intentions of profiting from it

this whole thing is shady. he explained to me how a big option could be there and people are tryin to pierce its barriers but in fact its all a disguise for a big block trade sittin up there (above 1.3800) which drove the markets down. i dont mean any disrespect but this whole thing is explained in almost a funny way. stop hunters here stops there.. maybe all that stuff is true but it simply sounds weird for lack of a better word.

i doubled a small account scalping the euro and cable last night from a very simple concept he explained to me when it comes to dom. some trades failed others were short term and others took off nicely.

he went as far as explaining to me how he kept himself from being recognized as placing big trades while his orders are 100% visible in the market

he simply said the whole deal with options is rarely the case. if an option exists it has to be seriously big and most times other things are happening such as block trades which are usually the market movers.

regarding the account i doubled maybe it was simply luck maybe extra motivation but wutever it is im gonna keep at it. and homie makes some serious money for himself and his clients and regarding this whole thing his shit made the most sense.

i appologize towards anyone offended by this but i figured this might help out sokme people including me who trades using techs and gets by fairly well.
  • #828
  • Mar 18, 2010 7:46am Mar 18, 2010 7:46am
Quoting Scotty B
...Even with the best data, expectations-whatever, we have to be ready to hit the kill switch if the deal goes bad.
The feedback you are giving has been very helpful. I've been leaning towards the common sense way of thinking, but you're right, there's still a part of me that want's to see A happen, then B, I do C and I'm in profit. Really though, when you start frying your retnas/brain/life/family for those 30 pips a day, it's not worth it. Just ride the trends so you can free yourself to go out and work on your rental properties, reasearch other...
Yeah Scott, I totally agree with your post. I have been swing trading since early 2010. I can say riding the trends on daily charts is the most profitable way to trade. Like Scotty said '' hit the kill and switch if the deal goes bad''.
  • #829
  • Mar 18, 2010 8:00am Mar 18, 2010 8:00am
Quoting boxingislife
a couple of things from my ex goldman sachs friend.

the size of the option mentioned needs to be seriously big in order for it to be defended with the intentions of profiting from it

this whole thing is shady. he explained to me how a big option could be there and people are tryin to pierce its barriers but in fact its all a disguise for a big block trade sittin up there (above 1.3800) which drove the markets down. i dont mean any disrespect but this whole thing is explained in almost a funny way. stop hunters here stops there.. maybe all...
The bottom line is being profitable consistently, whether you perceive stop orders, options or block orders, there is some kind of order and it can be detected if you know what to look for.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #830
  • Mar 18, 2010 9:05am Mar 18, 2010 9:05am
Quoting boxingislife
a couple of things from my ex goldman sachs friend.

the size of the option mentioned needs to be seriously big in order for it to be defended with the intentions of profiting from it

this whole thing is shady. he explained to me how a big option could be there and people are tryin to pierce its barriers but in fact its all a disguise for a big block trade sittin up there (above 1.3800) which drove the markets down. i dont mean any disrespect but this whole thing is explained in almost a funny way. stop hunters here stops there.. maybe all that...
Classic. Seriously classic. If you don't know why or how you doubled your small account with the DOM overnight then you are probably gonna have a real painful experience with your trading real soon. I say if you want to gamble wit style then go to Vegas.
  • #831
  • Mar 18, 2010 9:45am Mar 18, 2010 9:45am
Quoting Scotty B
Classic. Seriously classic. If you don't know why or how you doubled your small account with the DOM overnight then you are probably gonna have a real painful experience with your trading real soon. I say if you want to gamble wit style then go to Vegas.

Scotty, i very much doubt that Boxingislife is a gambler of any kind when it comes to trading. However, that's not the case. Pipmutt said it best: there's many ways to peel this banana. Trading is such a delicate subject and as much as there are traders there are opinions.

I've seen some of you promising to leave this thread AND YET you're back again...what's up with that ?

You have to understand the reasons why you are reading this thread and what you hope to get (not pointed to you Scotty, cause, well, you created this thread ). i believe i understand mine. I need something else besides chart to boost my confidence. And no, i'm not just talking about the "rumours of stops etc" but the more bigger picture as well.
  • #832
  • Edited 10:13am Mar 18, 2010 9:53am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting lumesh
Scotty, i very much doubt that Boxingislife is a gambler of any kind when it comes to trading. However, that's not the case. Pipmutt said it best: there's many ways to peel this banana. Trading is such a delicate subject and as much as there are traders there are opinions.

I've seen some of you promising to leave this thread AND YET you're back again...what's up with that ?

You have to understand the reasons why you are reading this thread and what you hope to get (not pointed to you Scotty, cause, well, you created this thread ). i believe...
I am only here to hear DS, if he didn't post here this thread would have died long ago. No offence but thats the truth.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #833
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:13am Mar 18, 2010 10:13am
Stop hunt ATM eur/usd
  • #834
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:16am Mar 18, 2010 10:16am
I'm not sure how many times it needs to be said. If you can make money doing basic TA or scalping the DOM or watching the fundies... Go do it. I'm not here to prove anyones system wrong. I'm here to show people how I trade. If you don't believe in anything I'm saying, thats your choice but it isn't going to impact MY bottom line or the bottom line of anyone who chooses to believe it.

At this point, in my opinion, anyone posting their criticisms or challenges regarding orderflow are only doing so to stroke their own ego. Their challenges do nothing to help anyone trying to learn this information and as such, will be going on my ignore list. I have better things to do with my time then read their nonsense...
  • #835
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:23am Mar 18, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Peke5
Stop hunt ATM eur/usd
When it drops like a rock I like to think it is more like SELLING than hunting.
  • #836
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:28am Mar 18, 2010 10:28am
not when there were stops layered from the 30 level down 10.. looked like a cascade to me.. same situation happened on usdchf at exactly the same time the stops above 1.0610 were blown out
  • #837
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:40am Mar 18, 2010 10:40am
Quoting Peke5
Stop hunt ATM eur/usd
Good lord. Now every time someone sees a meaningful price move they are going to call it a stop hunt....

This was no stop hunt. We got 2 moderatly bad numbers out of the euro, and 2 really good numbers out of the US. This is noting more then basic event flow.
  • #838
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:43am Mar 18, 2010 10:43am
Quoting Darkstar
Good lord. Now every time someone sees a meaningful price move they are going to call it a stop hunt....

This was no stop hunt. We got 2 moderatly bad numbers out of the euro, and 2 really good numbers out of the US. This is noting more then basic event flow.
Ditto. It was also a perfect drop from S2 to S3. I took my profits...
  • #839
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:23am Mar 18, 2010 11:23am
Allright, should I have said running price lower to buy.. We shall see. Anyway I appreciate all of your posts, keep them coming.


Look at usd/jpy hourly pinbar (and action in lower TF), could I say that was a "real" stop hunt? Got that from the top.


First entry at 1,3620 eur/usd wasn't good for me but second was ~1,3600 and for now, it is running fine.
  • #840
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:38am Mar 18, 2010 11:38am
We are in a wave 4 correction (on a short term level) so I wouldn't expect 1.36 to hold.
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