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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #761
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:38pm Mar 17, 2010 7:38pm
Quoting Luso
Hey man,

Stop being negative. Work? I have already read the link you posted some weeks ago as well as some Carol studies.
Didn't you realize yeat that there is no straight way. In small nuances is where the knowledge lives.
I was hoping my questions would help everyone. If it doesn't help you, don't read the answers.
Ditto.
Ok when DS leaves because people wanted it laid out on a plate well all be thankful.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #762
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:39pm Mar 17, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting markmm
When it expires untouched, or when it gets touched, whichever comes first. Thats for a Knock-Out Option I think but im no expert.
That would be the war, not the battle.
  • #763
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:42pm Mar 17, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting Luso
That would be the war, not the battle.
Ah I see what you mean now, sorry ignore my earlier post, this is a good question, im guessing when price stops running up to the defence area one for DS.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #764
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:43pm Mar 17, 2010 7:43pm
Knock-out, knock-down, knock-silly is happening ATM.
  • #765
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:44pm Mar 17, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting markmm
Ok when DS leaves because people wanted it laid out on a plate well all be thankful.
Reading his posts, it seemed to me Darkstar is here with genuine will to answer our questions.
I don't want to bore anyone or be the cause for him leaving the forum.
  • #766
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:44pm Mar 17, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting SunTrader
Knock-out, knock-down, knock-silly is happening ATM.
Big move was there news in Asia
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #767
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:44pm Mar 17, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting Luso
Reading his posts, it seemed to me Darkstar is here with genuine will to answer our questions.
I don't want to bore anyone or be the cause for him leaving the forum.
Ignore that post, sorry.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #768
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:49pm Mar 17, 2010 7:49pm
Quoting markmm
Big move was there news in Asia
There was an option at 3715, might have been a barrier and a also a run on it.

Night folks.
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #769
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:53pm Mar 17, 2010 7:53pm
Option was buy or sell and they said sell.

There is no need to read into what the chart is showing plain as day and night.
  • #770
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:26pm Mar 17, 2010 8:26pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Wash the car. Wax on. Wax off.

Sometimes in the beginning you don't understand why you are being taught or made to do things a certain way. Hence the stories and parables to frame your mind into a way of thinking and looking at things. Then adding steps a little bit a time.

There was another story about an apprentice that wanted to learn to carve jade and every day the master would give him a piece of jade to hold and do all these task. Anyways, the story is out there somewhere. The point being it takes time to gain experience and understanding....
I guess my problem with the thread is at times its inconsistent. At one point he will talk about EW and another about Gann and another about bar formations and another time he will say don't worry about the bars and focus on price and then he will say you need to have basic TA knowledge and then he will say one is focusing on TA too much... etc..

DS doesnt lay stuff on a silver platter but his stuff still makes sense logically. With FTI sometimes I feel like its an endless maze of riddles. But again I'm an infant when it comes to trading so yeah I like clear roadmaps that make sense to me.

I don't need someone to drive me to the destination but merely point to a path.
  • #771
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:32pm Mar 17, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting Deusomega
I think everyone wants this . That is one of the problems I had with FTI's thread as well... DS has a lot of experience and his own way of trading and the same with FTI. I think this experience and self confidence helps a lot with gaining things from FTI's thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...23&postcount=1
  • #772
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:49pm Mar 17, 2010 9:49pm
Quoting Darkstar
The first tip off was the fomc decision. The rejection of 3800 was the clue there was an option there. Once I knew it was there, then I started looking for clues that someone was hunting.
Quote
The volicity of price movement in what should have been an illiquid market was the tipoff at 12am. This is what the DOM watching experience will get you...

Quote
I like trading with the hunters because the probabilities are better. High win rates for small pips makes me feel good. Thats just personal preference though. As I said, you can build systems in many diffrent ways from that type of event. If you prefer big pip wins at lower winrates you can either fade or play for cascades.

Quote
I wouldn't ever trade with the defenders though. There is no way I can see to establish even a basic system around helping them. Not to say it can't be done, I just haven't found one...

Thank you for posting concrete examples of your thought process on this trade. Now that we're down to nuts and bolts I think I now finally understand how you view the stop run process and how I can spot it in the future. It's nice to see clarity on the subject.

Event: FOMC, location - price rejection level 1.38, looking for clues leading into stop run including unusual price / volume activity leading into the campaign within 1 day's average range (~130 pips) of the desired target.

After the event has played out, at what point do you know that it's all over. Presumably the ideal post-objective effect never arose (stops triggered leading to upward price cascades). In other words, after an objective is reached, is it usually instantaneous that you're in cascade land or can it take some time for it to develop?
  • #773
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:16pm Mar 17, 2010 10:16pm
Oh man, i missed the second class

----------------------
Quoting Darkstar
Morning Gentleman,
A few interesting things happened last night. ...

Its really quite impressive what they did in that bar... Even though they lost the 3777 level, it created an opportunity* for an even better tech signal on the hourly chart. If you scale out you'll notice that the bar between 2 and 3am became one of Jims bullish engulfing signals. ...
.......
isn't it possible that they intentionally let the 1.3777 level get broken, for whatever reason*?

very interesting & educational post.
Thank you very much Sir.
  • #774
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:19pm Mar 17, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting Darkstar
Well, seeing as how I'm 1 response short of having the interest I needed to start the book, it looks like I will be starting it this weekend. Having already written a lot of it throughout the forum and in training Mike, I imagine it shouldn't take too long. Six months maybe? I won't really know until it's done, but that’s my guess anyway...

[color=black][font=Verdana]In the interim, the only other reco I would have is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. That book is like the bible. Every time you read it...
Hey DS,

Thanks for the realtime example and the follow-up explanation. It's definitely a very specific way of looking at trading, down to getting into the minds of those causing price to move moment to moment. You're right, it would be really hard to emulate something like that without tons of screen time. It's hard for me to say whether or not those comments you made about having a friend in a bank were true (since you threw some rabbit trails in there), but I could definitely see the value of having one of the big guys explain these intricacies to you.

I was really surprised to see what I would consider to be a very small reaction when those stops went off. Before it happened I was imagining some sort of 50 pip spike. This is why I said early in the thread that I'd like to see a run on stops actually happen in real time.

Also, I found the price action subterfuge idea you brought up really fascinating. If the market was trading in low liquidity, you probably could manufacture whatever pattern you wanted if you had the capital to do it.

I have been quick to dismiss the manipulation of the little guys in the past, but I read a stat recently that said the retail market is responsible for ~20% daily volume now in OTC FX. Thats huge. Retail FX is structured in such a way that most end up getting really dumbed down. Most retail traders have no idea how price, liquidity, volume, ect. works. They are abysmally ignorant, but more than ready to pour their hard earned cash into their accounts. If that 20% market share number is true, the fields are ripe for the picking.

Without giving too much away, Darkstar, would you give us some idea of what you look for/at when applying market mechanics/motivations to trade the longer term? I am working out how to present some of the things I've been using in an easy way, but because you are taking your time and you are far far more experienced than me, I'd like to hear your thoughts first. I have a feeling that it will not end up being rocket science stuff, but if we can get closer to the reality of the market it would be a good thing.

Still watching EU here. The market is very short, but I am seeing much more interest in the long side (for the last week anyway). Every time the market pulls back the buyers come rushing in to take the low offers. I'll be very interested to see Friday's COT. It looks like the market really wants to touch 3700. I think buyers are weary of all the sideways action, but I suppose we'll find out if they are there.

I'll shutup now,

Scotty B
  • #775
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:09pm Mar 17, 2010 11:09pm
Quoting FXEZ
In other words, after an objective is reached, is it usually instantaneous that you're in cascade land or can it take some time for it to develop?
A true cascade is instant. One set of stops moves price into another set of stops, which drives into in the next set. It's rare, but I've seen 100+ pip cascades.
  • #776
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:11pm Mar 17, 2010 11:11pm
Quoting supremeChaos
Oh man, i missed the second class

----------------------

isn't it possible that they intentionally let the 1.3777 level get broken, for whatever reason*?

very interesting & educational post.
Thank you very much Sir.
It is an alternative and I thought about noting it. I concluded it was easier to stick with intentions being on the up and up. KISS as is were.
  • #777
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:15pm Mar 17, 2010 11:15pm
I would also be interested in hearing how often a situation like last nights stop run comes about. You state you take high leverage positions, this is risky but is that necessary because of the low frequency of a high probability run like this? Or is that just because the success rate is so high you can afford a larger position.
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #778
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:23pm Mar 17, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting Scotty B
Without giving too much away, Darkstar, would you give us some idea of what you look for/at when applying market mechanics/motivations to trade the longer term? I am working out how to present some of the things I've been using in an easy way, but because you are taking your time and you are far far more experienced than me, I'd like to hear your thoughts first. I have a feeling that it will not end up being rocket science stuff, but if we can get closer to the reality of the market it would be a good thing.
Its the same general concept but macro factors replace options as the underlying driver. Its still all about where money will be moving IN THE FUTURE.

I'll be posting updates regarding my euro long trade. That should give you some insight into how I look at the longer term trades. Right now my biggest factors are that the Greek news is looking positive and the market is caught short.
  • #779
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:24pm Mar 17, 2010 11:24pm
Quoting Darkstar
Damn, I failed to mention something.... dont assume that these participants are taking lunch at this point. They are still batteling.....
Quoting Darkstar
Morning...
This game was over the second price hit 3805..... stops got tripped and the hunters liquidated into them. ...
are stop hunters operating daily/all the time/24hrs?
Thanks Sir
  • #780
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:25pm Mar 17, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting Darkstar
Its...
I'll be posting updates regarding my euro long trade...
That would be priceless. Looking forward to it.
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