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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #701
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:43pm Mar 17, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
I didn't get the impression that was the issue.
What is the issue then
  • #702
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:46pm Mar 17, 2010 2:46pm
What issue?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #703
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:46pm Mar 17, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting Deusomega
What is the issue then
I'm just waiting for someone to ask if there is an EA for this...
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #704
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:48pm Mar 17, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting Deusomega
I must be incredibly dense because I don't see the big secret that has been revealed.
You wont have seen the big secret because there isn't one. I'm just annoyed that a bunch of idiots have been given on a plate what took me 2 + years to learn.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #705
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:48pm Mar 17, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting markmm
What issue?
The Big Issue....I've a feeling there's going to be an explosion of UK ex forex trader sellers!
  • #706
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:50pm Mar 17, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting pipmutt
The Big Issue....I've a feeling there's going to be an explosion of UK ex forex trader sellers!
lol

The cry will be "I thought there were stops there".
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #707
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:55pm Mar 17, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting markmm
lol

The cry will be "I thought there were stops there".
get a grip
  • #708
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:57pm Mar 17, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting markmm
lol

The cry will be "I thought there were stops there".
hehe

Everyone told them to trade with stops, looks like something got lost in the translation!
  • #709
  • Mar 17, 2010 3:33pm Mar 17, 2010 3:33pm
Oh my. I'd hazard a guess that there's a direct relationship between how informative you find this and how long you've been trading/studying this way yourself.

Leon, you made me laugh but it's not in vain; if you hadn't spent 2 years figuring all this out, you wouldn't recognise it as valuable.

To all the masses of shoulder shrugs out there, keep on shrugging...
  • #710
  • Mar 17, 2010 3:43pm Mar 17, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting Darkstar

I welcome your thoughts and questions...
I read it again and want to reconsider my question,if I may

What would be the right question to ask? (in this circumstance)

all the best!!
  • #711
  • Mar 17, 2010 4:33pm Mar 17, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting triger88990
I read it again and want to reconsider my question,if I may

What would be the right question to ask? (in this circumstance)

all the best!!
I find asking myself questions to be really helpful as well. Talking to urself doesnt mean you are crazy .
  • #712
  • Mar 17, 2010 4:37pm Mar 17, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting Marsh
So all those hours before this even happened, what was going on that made you decide a stop hunt was in play? Was it just that 5min pinbar, or other events?
The first tip off was the fomc decision. The rejection of 3800 was the clue there was an option there. Once I knew it was there, then I started looking for clues that someone was hunting.

The volicity of price movement in what should have been an illiquid market was the tipoff at 12am. This is what the DOM watching experience will get you...
  • #713
  • Mar 17, 2010 4:42pm Mar 17, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting Darkstar
The first tip off was the fomc decision. The rejection of 3800 was the clue there was an option there. Once I knew it was there, then I started looking for clues that someone was hunting.

The volicity of price movement in what should have been an illiquid market was the tipoff at 12am. This is what the DOM watching experience will get you...
Hi DS,

Do you mean the rejection last friday?

Thanks
  • #714
  • Mar 17, 2010 4:46pm Mar 17, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting pipmutt
An interesting interpretation but there are other perhaps simpler versions. Europe gets to their desks, Wilhelm mentions Greece, price spikes higher to take out short stops before a ~1c sell off.

At 1.3780 if price was going lower then the probability of a stop hunt above 1.38 was on the cards anyway, the only question was the options barrier. I suppose you've also got to ask why leave it until European open, wouldn't it have been easier a couple of hours earlier?
Perhaps, but I'm not about to start competing with Bloomberg for the best "after the fact" interpretation. What I'm doing is predictive and while it may be totally misguided, I still managed to use my interpretation to make money. When was the last time a Bloomberg prognostication made you any?

To answer your more pointed question... it's not necessarily easier pre-market. Remember low liquidity cuts both ways.
  • #715
  • Mar 17, 2010 4:47pm Mar 17, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Hi Darkstar. In your opinion could a different, but equally experienced and intelligent order flow trader arrive at a completely different explanation for what was going on? Thanks for comments and contributions.
(Shrug) We would have to find one and ask him. I've never met another one...
  • #716
  • Mar 17, 2010 4:47pm Mar 17, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting Darkstar
The first tip off was the fomc decision. The rejection of 3800 was the clue there was an option there. Once I knew it was there, then I started looking for clues that someone was hunting.

The volicity of price movement in what should have been an illiquid market was the tipoff at 12am. This is what the DOM watching experience will get you...
I heard this before in Remisence and from other traders, news comes out and should push price up, but it only moves slightly therefore there must be liquidity that soaked up the news orders.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #717
  • Mar 17, 2010 4:58pm Mar 17, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting triphop
One question - given most people could put together a system off the back of this kind of thought and analysis, do you think that it'll have an adverse effect on the future profitability of such plays? Now, granted, one post doesn't change a market, but it doesn't take long for inefficiencies to get traded out once public.
I don't see thats its really an inefficiency of the market. This is basic orderflow mechanics in action, so short of the market mechanics changing; I don't see the trade going away.

Now there is an argument to be made that the players may work a little harder to hide their activity, but there certainly not going to stop doing it because other people may want to get on board.

What won't work is giving someone rules to buy ahead of an option barrier with a 20pip stop and a 20 pip TP. If everyone was doing that it would quickly get arbitraged away. This is a discretionary trade. So even if another orderflow trader was looking at this, its unlikely that we would get in at the exact same time and price. Its also worth noting that of the hundred or so people following this thread, maybe 5 of them will have the discipline and commitment necessary to reach this level of skill. So you shouldn't really worry about the competition. 95% of them are losers for a reason.
  • #718
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:08pm Mar 17, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting Luso
Hi DS,

Do you mean the rejection last friday?

Thanks
Good eye... I don't know why I was thinking fomc.... whatever that news was on friday that took us to 3795...
  • #719
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:10pm Mar 17, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting markmm
I heard this before in Remisence and from other traders, news comes out and should push price up, but it only moves slightly therefore there must be liquidity that soaked up the news orders.
I probably learned more from that book then all the other trading books combined.
  • #720
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:11pm Mar 17, 2010 5:11pm
Quoting Darkstar
Perhaps, but I'm not about to start competing with Bloomberg for the best "after the fact" interpretation. What I'm doing is predictive and while it may be totally misguided, I still managed to use my interpretation to make money. When was the last time a Bloomberg prognostication made you any?
I didn't say your interpretation was 'misguided', I just offered a perfectly feasible alternative one.

As far as Bloomberg 'prognostication', if you're talking about analysis from the likes of top currency analysts and strategists from BNP Paribas, Rabobank, Credit Agricole, and other household names in the business, and for my longer term trades, oh about 6 months ago I think was about the biggest, >1500 pips on EUR/USD, posted live here on FF, and before that I don't know, I've lost count.

Bloomberg publish some excellent analysis from people in a position to have a plethora of information at their fingertips as well as market sentiment, information that we probably don't have access to and never will, I'm not sure even you could compete with it!

It was just an alternative take on what happened, the why, and the motives/aims behind it, we'll never know for sure what really happened for obvious reasons.
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