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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #681
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:59pm Mar 17, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting triger88990
i don't have access at IFR, ,so I have no idea what they talk inside,and I was trying to figure out which one is more reliable

is it CME GLOBEX book more detailed and more reliable data,thats what I want to figure out

anyway thanks
Do a forum search for IFR come on do a little work ...
  • #682
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:00pm Mar 17, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting markmm
Get a grip.
I concur with this. It's nice to see DS thinking but if you have done your due diligence and read his posts then you would of known what he was thinking. The hardest part is identifying these opportunities. Which idk if can be explained probably just experience. Time of day is probably one of the biggest hints.
  • #683
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:01pm Mar 17, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting Darkstar
Right around the red arrow, the defenders tried too hard to make a weak looking chart and wound up overextended. The hunters ran a liquidity test over the next 3 bars and determined that there was little left on the offer to compete with. We knew the hunters still had some powder to deploy for the 3:30 up move and this was just too good an opportunity to pass up. They dumped their load at 2:40 and the battle was over.

Its really quite impressive what they did in that bar......
Hi Darkstar. In your opinion could a different, but equally experienced and intelligent order flow trader arrive at a completely different explanation for what was going on? Thanks for comments and contributions.
  • #684
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:08pm Mar 17, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting Darkstar
[color=black][font=Verdana]
I welcome your thoughts and questions...
Damn... at the risk of this sounding like an asskissing post, I thought I knew all about stop hunts and barrier defence, having concluded that most barriers get defended except in serious uptrends (basically when there's some major fundie news).

But this level of interpretation and tells from a lower timescale is a whole new level.

One question - given most people could put together a system off the back of this kind of thought and analysis, do you think that it'll have an adverse effect on the future profitability of such plays? Now, granted, one post doesn't change a market, but it doesn't take long for inefficiencies to get traded out once public.
  • #685
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:15pm Mar 17, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting triphop
Damn... at the risk of this sounding like an asskissing post, I thought I knew all about stop hunts and barrier defence, having concluded that most barriers get defended except in serious uptrends (basically when there's some major fundie news).

But this level of interpretation and tells from a lower timescale is a whole new level.

One question - given most people could put together a system off the back of this kind of thought and analysis, do you think that it'll have an adverse effect on the future profitability of such plays? Now, granted,...
Honestly speaking, I'm a little annoyed that Darkstar has explained these things to the extent he has. Maybe that's just me being selfish.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #686
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:19pm Mar 17, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting triphop
Damn... at the risk of this sounding like an asskissing post, I thought I knew all about stop hunts and barrier defence, having concluded that most barriers get defended except in serious uptrends (basically when there's some major fundie news)....
Even though he has given an explanation, it doesn't mean you are going to be able to fire up a chart and start trading like that. Also his analysis is just his view, it might be totally off. The thing is to develop you own view based on your studying and observing and shit. All it is is knowing about how orders move price then with that in mind what "plays" could you do if you had major capital.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #687
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:25pm Mar 17, 2010 2:25pm
Let 'er rip.
  • #688
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:26pm Mar 17, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting Deusomega
If you take the time to read his post or look at the chart you could easily answer this yourself. Except for the percent growth... which is irrevelent to you or I. Using 40-50 leverage @ 80% win rate you can think for yourself and figure out the insane growth potential that is possible with someone with Darkstar's proficiency.
The chart doesn't take into account possible slippage/spread/scaling into/out of. That's why I asked how much he captured.

The percent is relevant, otherwise newbies will try this hyper-leveraged and lose 25% of their account. Darkstar, you should give us an idea of how much to risk onto a trade like this.

I don't see what's to hide here, since you can't figure out the account size.
  • #689
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:28pm Mar 17, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting Adal
The chart doesn't take into account possible slippage/spread/scaling into/out of. That's why I asked how much he captured.

The percent is relevant, otherwise newbies will try this hyper-leveraged and lose 25% of their account. Darkstar, you should give us an idea of how much to risk onto a trade like this.

I don't see what's to hide here, since you can't figure out the account size.
He said 80% win rate so you can work out from that based on how much DD you can handle, the max you should risk.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #690
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:28pm Mar 17, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting triphop
Now, granted, one post doesn't change a market, but it doesn't take long for inefficiencies to get traded out once public.
It wouldn't matter if you shouted it from the rooftops of Wall Street, it's too subjective and isn't anything new, just do a Google search (over 1m hits)!
  • #691
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:32pm Mar 17, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting Adal
The chart doesn't take into account possible slippage/spread/scaling into/out of. That's why I asked how much he captured.

The percent is relevant, otherwise newbies will try this hyper-leveraged and lose 25% of their account. Darkstar, you should give us an idea of how much to risk onto a trade like this.

I don't see what's to hide here, since you can't figure out the account size.
Who gives a crap if they are that dumb. If someone sees a post about one chart and suddenly thinks that they can trade like that person and risks 25% of their account I say let them burn. Because I guarantee that will be a lesson they don't forget. Looking at the chart you can guesstimate a 20 pip sl and around 20 pip tp. Therefore if he is using a 50 leverage for example with a 20 pip sl you can quickly guesstimate around 10% risk no matter what the account size. There ya go theres the risk. It complies with his previous posts of 12.5%. Thou art enlightened. And the noobies are saved.
  • #692
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:35pm Mar 17, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting markmm
He said 80% win rate so you can work out from that based on how much DD you can handle, the max you should risk.
Not to be pedantic here, but 80% win rate doesn't mean that from every 10 trades you'll have 8 winners and 2 losers. 80% win rate is perfectly compatible with 10 loses in a row. This is not at all as rare as you might think. So the win rate is only part of the answer.

Again, I hope he'll answer this. After all he made public the most important part - the method to trade.
  • #693
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:37pm Mar 17, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting Adal
Not to be pedantic here, but 80% win rate doesn't mean that from every 10 trades you'll have 8 winners and 2 losers. 80% win rate is perfectly compatible with 10 loses in a row. This is not at all as rare as you might think. So the win rate is only part of the answer.

Again, I hope he'll answer this. After all he made public the most important part - the method to trade.
Far from it. The method is experience.
  • #694
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:38pm Mar 17, 2010 2:38pm

Living the adventure in my head.
  • #695
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:39pm Mar 17, 2010 2:39pm
LeonLorenzo.......I wouldn't get too concerned with what DarkStar, or anyone else is sharing about order flow as most will never master it & I include myself in that group. Remember the Turtle Traders? You can give 20 traders a well written play book on how to trade a certain method, strategy, or whatever you want to call it & a great majority will find a way to change the rules to suit themselves. Its human nature to want to tinker with
& fix whats working just find.

DarkStar...... it is still a kind jester on your part to share your valuable knowledge. I have come to enjoy your postings & the knowledge they contained.
  • #696
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:40pm Mar 17, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting Adal
Not to be pedantic here, but 80% win rate doesn't mean that from every 10 trades you'll have 8 winners and 2 losers. 80% win rate is perfectly compatible with 10 loses in a row. This is not at all as rare as you might think. So the win rate is only part of the answer.

Again, I hope he'll answer this. After all he made public the most important part - the method to trade.
You are right, but I never said that, you can use Binomial Distribution to work out the chance of getting 10 loses in a row.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #697
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:40pm Mar 17, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo


I know man, I know what you mean.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #698
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:41pm Mar 17, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting acetrader
LeonLorenzo.......I wouldn't get too concerned with what DarkStar, or anyone else is sharing about order flow as most will never master it & I include myself in that group. Remember the Turtle Traders? You can give 20 traders a well written play book on how to trade a certain method, strategy, or whatever you want to call it & a great majority will find a way to change the rules to suit themselves. It human nature to want to tinker
& fix whats working just find.

DarkStar...... it is still a kind jester on your part to share your valuable knowledge....
I'll be praying for everyones failure .
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #699
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:41pm Mar 17, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo

I must be incredibly dense because I don't see the big secret that has been revealed.
  • #700
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:42pm Mar 17, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting Deusomega
I must be incredibly dense because I don't see the big secret that has been revealed.
I didn't get the impression that was the issue.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
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