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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #661
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:49am Mar 17, 2010 9:49am
Quoting SunTrader
DOM works in futures less so in forex.
To my knowledge..You have to have a heck of a lot of dough to get anywhere close to seeing whats going on in the interbank. Rueters or EBS is untouchable for us small guys. But I find futures data to work wonders for me. Plus, the IFR data somewhat bridges the gap.
  • #662
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:51am Mar 17, 2010 9:51am
lol

yea things still dont make much sense but somehow he knows whats up to an extent
  • #663
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:52am Mar 17, 2010 9:52am
Quoting boxingislife
lol none taken i personally have no idea what im talkin about

although i was just talkin to an ex goldman sachs. he explained a few things even tho dom wasnt his thing. he scalped on it every now and then and sometimes held the position if it was a good entry.

couple mins ago we were lookin at the mini dow together and he called a short scalp from lookin at dom. was at 10662. now at 10650.

lookin at cable too he was thinkin buy scalp around 20 but said to wait for it coz market is lookin a bit weak a few minutes later in the upper teens he...

Are you using MarketDelta to visualize the dom better by any chance?

Like in this thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=200074
  • #664
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:59am Mar 17, 2010 9:59am
Just be careful guys. If we are not careful we'll tread into the x then y then z trap. I just like futures data because it's consistent and as transparent as you are going to get. There are no secrets in it. It's just quality stuff IMO.
  • #665
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:59am Mar 17, 2010 9:59am
no just regular dom from any futures platform
the cme fx equivalents have the same info im lookin at
  • #666
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:19am Mar 17, 2010 10:19am
Quoting Scotty B
To my knowledge..You have to have a heck of a lot of dough to get anywhere close to seeing whats going on in the interbank. Rueters or EBS is untouchable for us small guys. But I find futures data to work wonders for me. Plus, the IFR data somewhat bridges the gap.

how much?
  • #667
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:30am Mar 17, 2010 10:30am
Quoting t2l&l2t
how much?
I'm not sure it's just a matter of money!
  • #668
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:47am Mar 17, 2010 10:47am
was wondering if a prime broker account was enough!! Ill just ask me broker.
  • #669
  • Edited 1:09pm Mar 17, 2010 12:54pm | Edited 1:09pm
Morning Gentleman,

A few interesting things happened last night.

Here is the chart that I will be discussing: http://www.darkstarforex.com/stophunt.png

First off, you will recall that the hunters were going to try to defend 3777. My expectation was that the up move wouldn't occur until ~3:30est. That turned out not to be the case because the defenders made a mistake.

Right around the red arrow, the defenders tried too hard to make a weak looking chart and wound up overextended. The hunters ran a liquidity test over the next 3 bars and determined that there was little left on the offer to compete with. We knew the hunters still had some powder to deploy for the 3:30 up move and this was just too good an opportunity to pass up. They dumped their load at 2:40 and the battle was over.

Its really quite impressive what they did in that bar... Even though they lost the 3777 level, it created an opportunity for an even better tech signal on the hourly chart. If you scale out you'll notice that the bar between 2 and 3am became one of Jims bullish engulfing signals. Between the range breakout, the higher high, and the bullish engulfing, it no longer mattered if the defenders pushed prices back down. As long as the bar closed above 3781, the techs were going to overrun the option defenders on the next bar... Just as they subsequently did at 3:05.

Back in the day I would have taken a high leverage(like 40 or 50:1) long somewhere in that congestion by the green arrow. In this case I would have set my stop at 3770 with the TP at 3805 (the blue arrow). ~80% of trades like that would finish in the money.

There are a few more things of note...

This game was over the second price hit 3805. If you had time and sales you would have noticed probably 5 yards transacted at that price while the option defenders stops got tripped and the hunters liquidated into them. Everything after that was just the noise of spec and technical traders doing whatever it is they do. There were potentially some opportunistic players attacking the 3810 stops (which were also tripped and which subsequently created the 3:15am pin), but the true players in this battle were finished for the day.

Several things COULD have happened at this point and systems can be built based on all the potential outcomes. If the stops at 3805 were large enough to consume all the hunters with room to spare, price could have created a stop cascade when it hit 3810. That would have spiked to at least the top of the 3:15am pin. If the stops at 3805 were smaller then the hunters liquidation, price would have snapped lower, trapping all the breakout traders. As it turned out, it was about even so price did little more then bounce around.

By 3:30 it was all over and price hadn't moved high enough to create a new base. With the hunters buy interest out of the market, price drifted back lower. Now its all just noise (not really, but as far as I’m concerned it is).
  • #670
  • Edited 1:20pm Mar 17, 2010 12:55pm | Edited 1:20pm
Now one could still argue that all this orderflow stuff is little more then BS, but I would find it hard to take the criticism seriously. If you go back in the thread, at 12am I was calling what would happen 3 hours later with some damn good accuracy. Was it perfect? No, but I think I've demonstrated that it doesn't have to be to make an assload of money.

Unfortunately, this demonstration is irrelevant for those of you looking to develop the skills to trade these opportunities on your own. I make it look easy, and I suppose it is once you know what your looking for, but being able to find them and trade them effectively requires an extended period of study and a great deal of thought.

For those of you willing to take the time to peruse all my posts and glean the lessons they contain, the skill set is there for the taking. The premise behind the book I'm contemplating is to take all those lessons and make them more explicit and accessible. Unfortunately, either scenario is still going to require screen time and thought-work to develop proficiency, but at least now you know what’s possible at the end of the road.

I welcome your thoughts and questions...
  • #671
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:12pm Mar 17, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting Darkstar
Theres a stop hunt going on in eur/usd right now if anyone cares to watch. You can see what happens when stops are tripped at ~1.3805. Given how short the market is, it should be a good one.
So all those hours before this even happened, what was going on that made you decide a stop hunt was in play? Was it just that 5min pinbar, or other events?

Thank you so much
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #672
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:16pm Mar 17, 2010 1:16pm
If you write the book, when do you think it will be available?

Also apart from Harris's book and Oslers papers, is there any other books or research you would suggest?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #673
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:16pm Mar 17, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting Darkstar
I think I've demonstrated that it doesn't have to be to make an assload of money.

I welcome your thoughts and questions...
How many pips did you captured? By what percent did you account grow?
  • #674
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:26pm Mar 17, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting Adal
How many pips did you captured? By what percent did you account grow?
If you take the time to read his post or look at the chart you could easily answer this yourself. Except for the percent growth... which is irrevelent to you or I. Using 40-50 leverage @ 80% win rate you can think for yourself and figure out the insane growth potential that is possible with someone with Darkstar's proficiency.
  • #675
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:38pm Mar 17, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting Darkstar
With the hunters buy interest out of the market, price drifted back lower. Now its all just noise (not really, but as far as I’m concerned it is).


I welcome your thoughts and questions...
An interesting interpretation but there are other perhaps simpler versions. Europe gets to their desks, Wilhelm mentions Greece, price spikes higher to take out short stops before a ~1c sell off.

At 1.3780 if price was going lower then the probability of a stop hunt above 1.38 was on the cards anyway, the only question was the options barrier. I suppose you've also got to ask why leave it until European open, wouldn't it have been easier a couple of hours earlier?
  • #676
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:46pm Mar 17, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting Darkstar
Now one could still argue that all this orderflow stuff is little more then BS, but I would find it hard to take the criticism seriously. If you go back in the thread, at 12am I was calling what would happen 3 hours later with some damn good accuracy. Was it perfect? No, but I think I've demonstrated that it doesn't have to be to make an assload of money.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Unfortunately, this demonstration is irrelevant for those of you looking to develop the skills to trade these opportunities...

thanks for your insights

My question is regarding the external data we need for having all the pieces of the puzzle. you have talk about the option defenders, from where did you know the option bariera was above .3805 and more important how large it was.

is it from CME GLOBEX book,because that is what I have heard that this is the only one that really matter or maybe from IFR?

all the best!!
  • #677
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:48pm Mar 17, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting triger88990
thanks for your insights

My question is regarding the external data we need for having all the pieces of the puzzle. you have talk about the option defenders, from where did you know the option bariera was above .3805 and more important how large it was.

is it from CME GLOBEX book,because that is what I have heard that this is the only one that really matter or maybe from IFR?

all the best!!
Have you looked at IFR? They were blabbing about that option the entire day almost. And the option barrier was at 1.3800. The stops were at 1.3805. Usually 5-10 above barriers or below common sense.
  • #678
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:52pm Mar 17, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting Darkstar
Morning Gentleman,

A few interesting things happened last night.

Here is the chart that I will be discussing: http://www.darkstarforex.com/stophunt.png

[color=black][font=Verdana]First off, you will recall that the hunters were going to try to defend 3777. My expectation was that the up move wouldn't occur until ~3:30est. That turned out...

OMG!!!! AM I DREAMING!!!! I never thought this would happen,

Based on the probabilities of Darkstar being so candid one might say even the TA's pobabilities are possible LOL!!
  • #679
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:56pm Mar 17, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting Deusomega
Have you looked at IFR? They were blabbing about that option the entire day almost. And the option barrier was at 1.3800. The stops were at 1.3805. Usually 5-10 above barriers or below common sense.

i don't have access at IFR, ,so I have no idea what they talk inside,and I was trying to figure out which one is more reliable

is it CME GLOBEX book more detailed and more reliable data,thats what I want to figure out

anyway thanks
  • #680
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:56pm Mar 17, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting t2l&l2t
OMG!!!! AM I DREAMING!!!! I never thought this would happen,

Based on the probabilities of Darkstar being so candid one might say even the TA's pobabilities are possible LOL!!
Get a grip.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
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