Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom | Page 33 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Despair means - obvious 14 replies

Wisdom and virtue 4 replies

The quest for the best forex trading system 28 replies

The quest to be a Millionaire 16 replies

Wit and Wisdom of Wall Street 0 replies

Attachments: Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom
Exit Attachments

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #641
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:29am Mar 17, 2010 7:29am
Quoting Scotty B
[Euro Briefing]] [04:24 GMT March 16] The EUR/USD opened the Asian...
It's after the 'event' now but how would you have exploited that commentary? Would you have shorted in the expectation that the options barrier would be well protected or would you long in the expectation stops would be run and the option barrier wouldn't hold?

To me (not forgetting I don't use this order flow approach) it looks like sellers looking to sell running stops above 1.38, then selling for the subsequent move down to 1.3750, but that's easy to say with hindsight!

I'm interested to know in practical trading terms how you're planning to exploit this new found knowledge and turn it into dollars, after all that's the whole object of the exercise.
  • #642
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:46am Mar 17, 2010 7:46am
Quoting pipmutt
It's after the 'event' now but how would you have exploited that commentary? Would you have shorted in the expectation that the options barrier would be well protected or would you long in the expectation stops would be run and the option barrier wouldn't hold?
That's a question that I also made to myself.

Quoting pipmutt
To me (not forgetting I don't use this order flow approach) it looks like sellers looking to sell running stops above 1.38, then selling for the subsequent move down to 1.3750, but that's easy to say with hindsight!
It's sounds like an order flow talking here.

I want to say thank you to everyone who is contributing to this discussion, but mainly to DarkStar, who made the things we should look for more clear in his last posts.

Best
  • #643
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:51am Mar 17, 2010 7:51am
Quoting Luso
It's sounds like an order flow talking here.
lol, damn and I was trying not to

I'm looking to buy here and the 1.3735 area for 1.3835 but not so much to do with order flow, more to do with TA and fundamentals. How does that sit with you order flow'ers, and more importantly why?
  • #644
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:57am Mar 17, 2010 7:57am
from the looks of the orders sitting around and others being executed, id say market is in consolidation mode right now and well thats obviously the case at this moment

im leaning towards a down move in the short term. the books are showing me just that. but then again what do i know

im not talkin some big huge drop
maybe just a dozen or so pips (20-30) im imagining
  • #645
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:00am Mar 17, 2010 8:00am
Quoting boxingislife
from the looks of the orders sitting around and others being executed, id say market is in consolidation mode right now and well thats obviously the case at this moment

im leaning towards a down move in the short term. the books are showing me just that. but then again what do i know

im not talkin some big huge drop
maybe just a dozen or so pips (20-30) im imagining
Which books are you looking at, futs?

ps short is probably a good bet 'cos I'm long!
  • #646
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:06am Mar 17, 2010 8:06am
Quoting pipmutt
Which books are you looking at, futs?

ps short is probably a good bet 'cos I'm long!
yea. a futures platform

same stuff as on the cme realtime fx except i get to see whats executing in realtime. like 8 contracts just happened at 3764 then 5 etc

im lookin at whats being executed at each price as well as orders sitting in the near prices
  • #647
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:10am Mar 17, 2010 8:10am
Quoting boxingislife
yea. a futures platform
ok, thanks, do you correlate it against other pairs/index ie USD/CHF or Dollar Index? Just trying to get a handle on what you're looking at.
  • #648
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:15am Mar 17, 2010 8:15am
I don't know about your longs but the price action on the hourly chart is screaming SELL. I think we'll see 1.37 again.
  • #649
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:18am Mar 17, 2010 8:18am
im usually watching cable and euro
i havent really looked at anything else usually its enough to look at the thing ur trading and nothing else. sometimes i glance at the dow or gold just to see what those are doin but im still at early stages that i dont think lookin at other stuff would be beneficial. at least not right now. its alot of info to observe and grasp.
  • #650
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:18am Mar 17, 2010 8:18am
Quoting Sauron
I don't know about your longs but the price action on the hourly chart is screaming SELL. I think we'll see 1.37 again.
That's ok, I'm using 1:1 so I've got a bit of room yet, maybe close some at 1.3775 to reduce exposure.

Sorry, straying off the topic slightly.....
  • #651
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:32am Mar 17, 2010 8:32am
from the looks of it 3748-50 is a selling area. a small one. lots of trades happened there

while just under 3740 lots of trades were happening on the bid side

yea i just have no idea what im talkin about but its deff fun

now watching 48-50 if itl hold in the short term
  • #652
  • Edited 9:00am Mar 17, 2010 8:42am | Edited 9:00am
Quoting boxingislife

yea i just have no idea what im talkin about but its deff fun
lol, neither do I but what can you do

edit: took the 35 off for +20

edit2: closed the rest at b/e (boy it's hard doing this stuff in public, usually if I screw up I'm the only one who knows about it, lol )

You watch, it'll go up now I'm flat!

-
  • #653
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:47am Mar 17, 2010 8:47am
Quoting pipmutt
It's after the 'event' now but how would you have exploited that commentary? Would you have shorted in the expectation that the options barrier would be well protected or would you long in the expectation stops would be run and the option barrier wouldn't hold?

To me (not forgetting I don't use this order flow approach) it looks like sellers looking to sell running stops above 1.38, then selling for the subsequent move down to 1.3750, but that's easy to say with hindsight!

I'm interested to know in practical trading terms how...
I was already long, but I'd be weary of adding any new longs till we were past the bump in the road the option caused. I suppose you could try to capture the stop volatility with a buy stop, but then you have to worry about a target. Not really my cup of tea, but I'd be interested to hear what DS has to say about this and especially his take on what happened last night. Maybe it was truly a rumor.
  • #654
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:52am Mar 17, 2010 8:52am
Quoting Scotty B
I was already long, but I'd be weary of adding any new longs till we were past the bump in the road the option caused. I suppose you could try to capture the stop volatility with a buy stop, but then you have to worry about a target. Not really my cup of tea, but I'd be interested to hear what DS has to say about this and especially his take on what happened last night. Maybe it was truly a rumor.
I wasn't meaning a buy above 1.38, I was more thinking a buy below it on the expectation of the stop hunt (or a sell above it fading the move), but then with the options barrier and all it would be a dilemma, that's why I was wondering how you would trade that IFR commentary (if at all).
  • #655
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:10am Mar 17, 2010 9:10am
Quoting pipmutt
I wasn't meaning a buy above 1.38, I was more thinking a buy below it on the expectation of the stop hunt (or a sell above it fading the move), but then with the options barrier and all it would be a dilemma, that's why I was wondering how you would trade that IFR commentary (if at all).
Yeah, at this point I would not have done anything but enjoy the boost my longs received.

I beleive we are seeing pretty much the exact situation in EU right now as DS showed us in that AU chart. There are buyers coming in. The 50s produced some good buy flow and price 'double dipped' to the daily pivot. There was a much better response to the lower prices at the pivot. I'd be comfortable taking a long here with a stop directly below the last low price made. I would have entered at the first dip too. There are no real short signals in the data yet.
  • #656
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:20am Mar 17, 2010 9:20am
Quoting Scotty B
There are no real short signals in the data yet.
Are you looking at the same as boxing, futures? What did you do with the boost your longs got, close and re-enter?

This thread is actually quite interesting, it's a peek inside other trader's minds and seeing how they think.

Are you trading intraday Scotty?
  • #657
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:29am Mar 17, 2010 9:29am
Quoting pipmutt
Are you looking at the same as boxing, futures? What did you do with the boost your longs got, close and re-enter?

This thread is actually quite interesting, it's a peek inside other trader's minds and seeing how they think.

Are you trading intraday Scotty?
Yeah, I just use futures and IFR. I don't know what in the world boxing is talking about though (no offense boxing). I didn't do anything with the boost. It's was just a few extra pips in the scheme of things. No I'm not trading intraday, but I use intraday for precise entries.
  • #658
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:40am Mar 17, 2010 9:40am
Quoting Scotty B
Yeah, I just use futures and IFR. I don't know what in the world boxing is talking about though (no offense boxing). I didn't do anything with the boost. It's was just a few extra pips in the scheme of things. No I'm not trading intraday, but I use intraday for precise entries.
lol none taken i personally have no idea what im talkin about

although i was just talkin to an ex goldman sachs. he explained a few things even tho dom wasnt his thing. he scalped on it every now and then and sometimes held the position if it was a good entry.

couple mins ago we were lookin at the mini dow together and he called a short scalp from lookin at dom. was at 10662. now at 10650.

lookin at cable too he was thinkin buy scalp around 20 but said to wait for it coz market is lookin a bit weak a few minutes later in the upper teens he said shorts are happening
  • #659
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:44am Mar 17, 2010 9:44am
DOM works in futures less so in forex.
  • #660
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:44am Mar 17, 2010 9:44am
Quoting boxingislife
lol none taken i personally have no idea what im talkin about

although i was just talkin to an ex goldman sachs. he explained a few things even tho dom wasnt his thing. he scalped on it every now and then and sometimes held the position if it was a good entry.

couple mins ago we were lookin at the mini dow together and he called a short scalp from lookin at dom. was at 10662. now at 10650.

lookin at cable too he was thinkin buy scalp around 20 but said to wait for it coz market is lookin a bit weak a few minutes later in the upper teens he said...
Well dammit boxing send the guy over here, we need all the help we can get!
3 traders viewing now