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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #621
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:00am Mar 17, 2010 1:00am
Quoting supremeChaos
Sir Scott,
eur$? when was this?
Thanks!
It was just a couple weeks back. I'll do some digging to see if I can find it.
  • #622
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:01am Mar 17, 2010 1:01am
Quoting supremeChaos
is there any possibility/instance that they allocate more than 10-15%?
if yes, do u know why?
The more important question is why 10-15% and why 30 pip buffer. DS has breathed some much needed life back into this thread! I'm guessing the buffer is judged by the price action as it started to encounter problems before this recent upmove around 25-30 pips below the barrier.
  • #623
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:10am Mar 17, 2010 1:10am
Quoting Deusomega
DS has breathed some much needed life back into this thread!
yeah, the market feels alive with participants vs. just looking at bars on a chart.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #624
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:11am Mar 17, 2010 1:11am
Note to FF Admin.. I don't know if I'm allowed to do this, but I just wanted to give a highlight to the content of IFR. I'm not promoting it(for personal gain), and on the flipside, I'm not trying to infringe copyrights or anything. I won't do it again, I just wanted everybody to see the value in it.
"
[Euro Briefing]] [04:24 GMT March 16] The EUR/USD opened the Asian session around 1.3770 after a second move higher following the FOMC event that held no surprises and encouraged moves up in risk assets while pushing the USD broadly lower. The EUR/USD pivoted around 1.3770 the entire Asian morning and into the afternoon session as the market was completely moribund ahead of the BOJ decision. There was talk of large option related sell orders ahead of a 1.3800 barrier while buoyant Asian bourse supported EUR/JPY and kept the USD on the defensive. The BOJ doubled the bank lending facility as expected and the USD/JPY fell to 90.04 from 90.30. The EUR/USD pushed up to a session high around 1.3785 and was trading around that level into the afternoon session. Short-term sentiment towards the EUR/USD has turned bullish as the Greece crisis appears to be fading and risk assets and currencies are looking attractive to investors. The 1.3800 level is proving stubborn due to the option barriers, but stops are building above 1.3800 and 1.3850 while calls for 1.40- plus are becoming more common."
  • #625
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:11am Mar 17, 2010 1:11am
Damn, I failed to mention something.... dont assume that these participants are taking lunch at this point. They are still batteling but the line in the sand will be on the short side until london. The hunters will need to defend ~3777 to keep the chart looking pretty for the tech traders in london. Its going to get dull because the defenders cant get too agressive without risking their capital and the hunters have no need to push prices higher... just keep it from falling.

The only thing that can save the defenders is if they can make the chart look weak. If your going to be up you can watch to see how they attempt that, but I'm going to bed. Just wanted to give a bit more context to the situation...
  • #626
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:17am Mar 17, 2010 1:17am
Darkstar,
Excellent Sir!
truly awesome.
Many thanks for your time.
I'll be here for the next class.
  • #627
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:17am Mar 17, 2010 1:17am
Quoting Darkstar
Damn, I failed to mention something.... dont assume that these participants are taking lunch at this point. They are still batteling but the line in the sand will be on the short side until london. The hunters will need to defend ~3777 to keep the chart looking pretty for the tech traders in london. Its going to get dull because the defenders cant get too agressive without risking their capital and the hunters have no need to push prices higher... just keep it from falling.

The only thing that can save the defenders is if they can make the chart...
Thanks DS I think I speak for everyone in saying that your posts are really appreciated especially ones like these! Adding to my DS notebook lol!
  • #628
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:22am Mar 17, 2010 1:22am
Quoting Darkstar
Damn...
The hunters will need to defend ~3777 to keep the chart looking pretty for the tech traders in london...
The only thing that can save the defenders is if they can make the chart look weak. If your going to be up you can watch to see how they attempt that, but I'm going to bed. Just wanted to give a bit more context to the situation...
as i type, FXPro live price is @ 1.3776ish. looks like the defenders are succeeding, so far, in foiling an attempt to create a pretty looking chart
  • #629
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:33am Mar 17, 2010 1:33am
Quoting supremeChaos
as i type, FXPro live price is @ 1.3776ish. looks like the defenders are succeeding, so far, in foiling an attempt to create a pretty looking chart
I was thinking on the 1hr chart you have a double IB setup at swing high. So folks that play the break of the IB's short would have their stops on the other side of the IB (as most are taught). So now you let price drop and the buyers jump in BIG and drive price back up. Anyone short would have to cover with buy orders above the IB adding pressure to the up side.

I don't know, just a random thought....

EDIT: IBFX demo is double IB, Oanda live not so much.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #630
  • Edited 2:20am Mar 17, 2010 1:53am | Edited 2:20am
Quoting LasVahGoose
I was thinking on the 1hr chart you have a double IB setup at swing high. So...
I don't know, just a random thought....
EDIT: IBFX demo is double IB, Oanda live not so much.
the highs differ by a pip(/less than a pip) in FXPro live, so there(FXPro) it's not an IB.
but look, that random thought seem to be playing out just about now

it's almost 3am est. let's see what happens from now until
Quoting Darkstar
w...~3:30am est..
learning is fun!
  • #631
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:40am Mar 17, 2010 2:40am
Boom shakalaka lol. That didn't take too long and another big pin bar. Bed time for me interesting .
  • #632
  • Mar 17, 2010 3:19am Mar 17, 2010 3:19am
Quoting Deusomega
interesting .
Yes. Quite a bit to chew on.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts tonight Darkstar!
  • #633
  • Mar 17, 2010 3:42am Mar 17, 2010 3:42am
Looks like I missed some good stuff from DS, sucks being in the UK lol. Its good to get an anaysis of the small battles being fought. If you are looking longer term though these are minor blips on the road up.

Interesting thing about the EUR on 4 hr is a large area of either covering or of loading up long for a large move up? I know there is a pattern name for this I prefer not to use when thinking about orderflow
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-03-17_0840.png Size: 56 KB
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #634
  • Mar 17, 2010 3:43am Mar 17, 2010 3:43am
Activity at that high and within that pin bar was very minimal. It will definitley be interesting to see what kind of activity we see through the rest of today. If anything the barrier is gone now, price should find it's way up through the 3800 level a little easier now.

I think the market will turn off the 3750s and the buy flow will come back in. Have to wait and see. I'm not saying to trade this or that in the short term, but it's worthwhile in my mind to exercise this stuff in real time. As I've been saying, it's all about getting a solid entry with minimal DD. I would not just blindly enter at the 3750ish mark, I'd wait to make sure there were strong buyers there.

I'm sure glad we got over the nasty spell in the thread. Thanks for playing nice everybody.

Scotty B
  • #635
  • Mar 17, 2010 4:31am Mar 17, 2010 4:31am
Yes, thanks a lot Darkstar.

I was wondering about the current situation and i feel like i've seen that before (when you look at the chart between 2.30-5.00 est). We did break out to the upside (like you said) just to go back at 3770. How would you explain the move down again ?

Did you expect the price to go down the way it did or did you expect it to start moving up gradually after the initial spike ?

Does the move down have any effect to the shortside or is just a natural way for the price to rest and you are not concerned about your long ?

thanks.
  • #636
  • Mar 17, 2010 4:54am Mar 17, 2010 4:54am
Quoting Scotty B
Activity at that high and within that pin bar was very minimal. It will definitley be interesting to see what kind of activity we see through the rest of today. If anything the barrier is gone now, price should find it's way up through the 3800 level a little easier now.

I think the market will turn off the 3750s and the buy flow will come back in. Have to wait and see. I'm not saying to trade this or that in the short term, but it's worthwhile in my mind to exercise this stuff in real time. As I've been saying, it's all about getting a solid...
Im out of here, this thread is about making predictions now.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #637
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:00am Mar 17, 2010 5:00am
Quoting markmm
Looks like I missed some good stuff from DS, sucks being in the UK lol. Its good to get an anaysis of the small battles being fought. If you are looking longer term though these are minor blips on the road up.

Interesting thing about the EUR on 4 hr is a large area of either covering or of loading up long for a large move up? I know there is a pattern name for this I prefer not to use when thinking about orderflow
Rounded bottom?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #638
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:24am Mar 17, 2010 5:24am
Quoting markmm
Im out of here, this thread is about making predictions now.
See ya bud. Take care.
  • #639
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:35am Mar 17, 2010 5:35am
Buyers are in the house. Could be a double dipper, but a nice opportunity anyways. Asks seeing plenty of attention which is really what it's about. Vote with the majority when they vote.
  • #640
  • Mar 17, 2010 6:24am Mar 17, 2010 6:24am
Quoting Darkstar

PS- To answer your conundrum about the girl in the bar... respect will get you about as far as offering to buy her a drink. You’re still thinking like everyone else. It’s like debating the difference between an RSI and a MA. What you really need to do is sometimes counter-intuitive...

Treat her like a worthless whore and she'll be begging you to take her home with you. Check out my profile for a case in point.
Harsh but true 9/10 times, it also reminds me of Tom Leykis. The bold also nicely applies to Forex (just to name a few)...LOL!
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