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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #581
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:47pm Mar 16, 2010 11:47pm
Quoting Darkstar
As a side note, look back to around 17:50 est. The large pinbar was the players engaged in this hunt clearing out their existing longs (accumulated in the previous up move). They were anticipating this battle and needed to free up resources...
Here? And are you suggesting that people gunning for those stops have THAT much control over prices to "create" patterns?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro stop hunt2.gif Size: 19 KB
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #582
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:52pm Mar 16, 2010 11:52pm
Its also good to note the time... this is an easy one to spot because were getting a lot of movement in a relatively illiquid trading period. My guess is that we won't break through until the european open. Right now the hunters are trying to build a good up move story on the chart so the open vol can help them move higher. If they can pull it off, cracking the option barrier is a guaranteed outcome.
  • #583
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:52pm Mar 16, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting supremeChaos
..
so far, price lacks the strength to go up. cant breach 1.3785 for now.
Let's see...
Quoting Darkstar
Thats a hell of a wall. The hunters are going to need more help to pull this off....
as i post this, price has printed a 'big' M5 bar(2bars ago), with price back near the top, currently at 1.3783ish.
are they playing with price?
  • #584
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:53pm Mar 16, 2010 11:53pm
Quoting Marsh
Here? And are you suggesting that people gunning for those stops have THAT much control over prices to "create" patterns?
Yes and yes. That pin bar occured over a period of about 10 seconds. I don't have access to a DOM these days, but I'd guess that order was at least a couple yards.
  • #585
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:55pm Mar 16, 2010 11:55pm
Quoting Darkstar
Thats a hell of a wall. The hunters are going to need more help to pull this off. Over the next hour or two I expect to see a common technical pattern emerge that will entice spec traders to get in on the move. Likely just a higher low and continuation, but they may get crafty if that doesn't work...

As a side note, look back to around 17:50 est. The large pinbar was the players engaged in this hunt clearing out their existing longs (accumulated in the previous up move). They were anticipating this battle and needed to free up resources...
This brings a question to mind. If players are willing do defend their options, wouldn't they do the same with their stops? It's pretty much the same thing at stake or worse sometimes. Looking at the chart, it looks like this is exactly what has been going on in that past as price has come near this level. Do you have data that confirms that stops are there or is it based on your experiance? Thanks DS.
  • #586
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:55pm Mar 16, 2010 11:55pm
Quoting Marsh
Here? And are you suggesting that people gunning for those stops have THAT much control over prices to "create" patterns?
i think the 'pattern' is just a natural result of their 'action', not the other way around.
  • #587
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:56pm Mar 16, 2010 11:56pm
Quoting Scotty B
Do you have data that confirms that stops are there or is it based on your experiance? Thanks DS.

I would like to add, do you have data that confirms a barrier? or is it simply the round number factor? I am at work with no access to IFR.
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #588
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:58pm Mar 16, 2010 11:58pm
Quoting Scotty B
Do you have data that confirms that stops are there or is it based on your experiance? Thanks DS.
I think your last post answered this part..
  • #589
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:00am Mar 17, 2010 12:00am
Quoting Scotty B
This brings a question to mind. If players are willing do defend their options, wouldn't they do the same with their stops? It's pretty much the same thing at stake or worse sometimes. Looking at the chart, it looks like this is exactly what has been going on in that past as price has come near this level. Do you have data that confirms that stops are there or is it based on your experiance? Thanks DS.
Yeah the last couple times its encountered there there have been rumors of sovereign sell interest so itll def be defended I would guess. But just looking at the chart combined with the high tendency for stops to cluster right above a round number its an easy guess for a good amount of stops to be there. And also there are a couple of sources that have reported a barrier there.
  • #590
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:03am Mar 17, 2010 12:03am
Quoting Marsh
I would like to add, do you have data that confirms a barrier? or is it simply the round number factor? I am at work with no access to IFR.
IFR says barriers at 1.38

How they know, I don't know.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #591
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:05am Mar 17, 2010 12:05am
Quoting LasVahGoose
IFR says barriers at 1.38

How they know, I don't know.
Cool, thanks.
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #592
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:05am Mar 17, 2010 12:05am
Oh..One more thing. Another reason I bring up the stop defense idea is because of common flag formations. My thought is that certain PA can reveal where the stops are. In a bull flag for example, I'd say that you have a legitimate wave of buying followed by defensive selling (the flag). The reason I think this is true is because the volume always comes in before the break of the high where the stops likely are. Almost like the defenders have run out of resources to fight so they give up at the first small sign of another bullish wave. Just a thought, nothing more.
  • #593
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:07am Mar 17, 2010 12:07am
Quoting Scotty B
If players are willing do defend their options, wouldn't they do the same with their stops?
There stops are immaterial. There probably defending a 100m option. Defending a 30 pip buffer, they can afford to commit up to 33 yards defending it before the defense costs them more then they would save with the option. They likely aren't committing that much (or anywhere close). I'd guess they have 4 or 5 yards committed to he task. Once they lose the 100m on the option, doing anything else is just throwing good money after bad. Their stops are hiding just beyond the option strike...

Quote
It's pretty much the same thing at stake or worse sometimes. Looking at the chart, it looks like this is exactly what has been going on in that past as price has come near this level. Do you have data that confirms that stops are there or is it based on your experiance? Thanks DS.

The only thing I'm looking at is a 5min chart. You can tell what is hiding where based on price action. If anyone feels like perusing IFR, I'm sure you can find what I'm talking about...
  • #594
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:07am Mar 17, 2010 12:07am
Quoting Darkstar
Thats a hell of a wall. The hunters are going to need more help to pull this off. Over the next hour or two I expect to see a common technical pattern emerge that will entice spec traders to get in on the move. Likely just a higher low and continuation, but they may get crafty if that doesn't work...

As a side note, look back to around 17:50 est. The large pinbar was the players engaged in this hunt clearing out their existing longs (accumulated in the previous up move). They were anticipating this battle and needed to free up resources...
I see a Bearish outside bar at a swing high (not a great swing high) before that PINBAR. So can they (players) create that to make people go short and the reverse it on the shorts to trap them so they exit with buys?
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #595
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:08am Mar 17, 2010 12:08am
Quoting Deusomega
Yeah the last couple times its encountered there there have been rumors of sovereign sell interest so itll def be defended I would guess. But just looking at the chart combined with the high tendency for stops to cluster right above a round number its an easy guess for a good amount of stops to be there. And also there are a couple of sources that have reported a barrier there.

Plus it's right above a massive consolodation area. Also, as DS already said, there is a ton of short interest right now. If you look at the COT it's makes you scratch your head a little bit with all the 'better' news out surrounding EU. Make you really give some creedence to that 95% stat.
  • #596
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:09am Mar 17, 2010 12:09am
Quoting Darkstar
Yes and yes. That pin bar occured over a period of about 10 seconds...
Wow, i see.
very interesting. thanks
  • #597
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:10am Mar 17, 2010 12:10am
Quoting Darkstar
There stops are immaterial. There probably defending a 100m option. Defending a 30 pip buffer, they can afford to commit up to 33 yards defending it before the defense costs them more then they would save with the option. They likely aren't committing that much (or anywhere close). I'd guess they have 4 or 5 yards committed to he task. Once they lose the 100m on the option, doing anything else is just throwing good money after bad. Their stops are hiding just beyond the option strike...
33 yards!?! I thought yards were billions..
  • #598
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:12am Mar 17, 2010 12:12am
Quoting Scotty B
Plus it's right above a massive consolodation area. Also, as DS already said, there is a ton of short interest right now. If you look at the COT it's makes you scratch your head a little bit with all the 'better' news out surrounding EU. Make you really give some creedence to that 95% stat.
I think the current COT stats give a lot of credence to what DS was saying about the scared money leaving the euro 1200-1300 pips ago. I read today that the greece bailout will likely go through and the COT looks pretty extreme bounds right now in short exposure. Wonder when it will turn .
  • #599
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:14am Mar 17, 2010 12:14am
There was so little trading (according to my T&S window) going on during that 5m pin that is really very meaningless - to me at least.
  • #600
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:18am Mar 17, 2010 12:18am
I cant find the post but someone mentioned IFR has a soverign selling euro at these levels. Thats strait up BULL SHIT. Why would a soverign step in here? If anything, soverigns like stability and were moving back INTO the longer term range. This is nothing more then whoever is defending the option (or some other player cought short) trying to keep longs on the sidelines.

IFR is great, but you still need to use your head.
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