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Attachments: Commodity Currencies: AUD, CAD and NZD
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Commodity Currencies: AUD, CAD and NZD

  • #81
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:15pm Mar 16, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Yes, and I'm waiting...I have ma support at 9180
good, it dropped 20 pips in one touch of the R1 at .9211
  • #82
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:16pm Mar 16, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
good, it dropped 20 pips in one touch of the R1 at .9211
How did you calculate that R on the weekly chart? I can't seem to duplicate.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #83
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:17pm Mar 16, 2010 5:17pm
I dont expect N/U gets to R2 at .7163 without falling 20-30 pips first from 50% fib level at current price (.7130)
  • #84
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:20pm Mar 16, 2010 5:20pm
Quoting MarcVUM
How did you calculate that R on the weekly chart? I can't seem to duplicate.
I just use a weekly pivot indicator for that
you can use that inidcator or use this site:
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/
  • #85
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:26pm Mar 16, 2010 5:26pm
Quoting shahab8b
I just use a weekly pivot indicator for that
you can use that inidcator or use this site:
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/

Nice. Do you only use the weekly points or do you use lower TF points? Are hourly too low to use?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #86
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:28pm Mar 16, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Nice. Do you only use the weekly points or do you use lower TF points? Are hourly too low to use?

I used to put my orders at daily Pivot or S/R , but now I think weekly pivot and R/S are the most important one- even more than monthly IMO, I think thats due to lots of orders setting around them, make them significant

a S/R level is a place where there are lots of order set (buy order for S/ sell order for R) that make them S/R, if there isnt any order they dont have a significant, and I think big traders use weekly R/S so their orders may chnage the direction even if it is for 30-40 pips
  • #87
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:34pm Mar 16, 2010 5:34pm
Quoting shahab8b
I used to put my orders at daily Pivot or S/R , but now I think weekly pivot and R/S are the most important one- even more than monthly IMO, I think thats due to lots of orders setting around them, make them significant a S/R level is aplce where there are lots of order set (buy order for S/ sell order for R) that make them S/R, if there isnt any order they dont have a significant, and I think big traders use weekly R/S so their orders may chnage the direction even if it is for 30-40 pips
Interesting. I will keep this in my head! Thank you.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #88
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:34pm Mar 16, 2010 5:34pm
if you really interested to use S/R you need to look at the previous S/R which is broken then put an order when the price re-test that level
like what we did here for U/Cad S>R at 1.0220
  • #89
  • Mar 16, 2010 6:24pm Mar 16, 2010 6:24pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
my short N/U order at .71300 got filled I'll add up to short at weekly R2 at .7163 if it get there, SL=.7180
I took that one as well.. Today I won't mess around with my stops
Long U/C still pending. could be filled soon (while U/CHF still some space left)

my bed is calling.. so let's see what I will see tomorrow morning.. (what Asia session will bring)

Happy pippin to you all!

-Tuner-
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #90
  • Mar 16, 2010 10:28pm Mar 16, 2010 10:28pm
Gold sell limit order at 11150-55 R zone,
reason :
TL
61% fib
R
good RRR
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  • #91
  • Mar 17, 2010 8:30am Mar 17, 2010 8:30am
Hello Shahab,

Lataly I’ve been reading your threads often, very interesting analysis. I’ve been wondering what you think of USDCAD, do you think it is headed below parity? Or could the 1.0100 actually hold and we’ll see a move back up?
Thanks,
Chantal

  • #92
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:52am Mar 17, 2010 10:52am
Quoting Chantalb
Hello Shahab,

Lataly I’ve been reading your threads often, very interesting analysis. I’ve been wondering what you think of USDCAD, do you think it is headed below parity? Or could the 1.0100 actually hold and we’ll see a move back up?
Thanks,
Chantal

thanx for your comment,
take a look at this chart, technically it could go not just to parity but to an all time low around .8500 , sounds crazy, but that's the chart.
this monthly candle if closes like this, then the parity and beyond .
but , I think this monthly candle wont close like this ,
if you like to trade longs try it on weekly S levels like, 1.01230 , 1.0055 , you may catch around 20-30 pips bounce each time, and if it wants to turn around you have a good entry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #93
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:15am Mar 17, 2010 11:15am
Kiwi short trade at .7130 didnt work well, however I closed my trades with +20 pips but the entry wasnt good, I took another shot at Weekly R2 at .7163, then I'll try another shot at fib level at .7220
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  • #94
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:21am Mar 17, 2010 11:21am
wow U/Cad is going crazy
watching U/Cad acting like this I think we will see .9400 in A/U to be taken out in a couple of days

next S level is 1.0055

as a side note, I got a margin call in Nov 2007 because of U/Cad, when it went below 1.00 I said it could not go more down, then I said again it couldnt go lower , and each time I added more long, finally I got a margin call .that was a big experience
  • #95
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:46am Mar 17, 2010 11:46am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
wow U/Cad is going crazy
watching U/Cad acting like this I think we will see .9400 in A/U to be taken out in a couple of days

next S level is 1.0055

as a side note, I got a margin call in Nov 2007 because of U/Cad, when it went below 1.00 I said it could not go more down, then I said again it couldnt go lower , and each time I added more long, finally I got a margin call .that was a big experience
Hey there Shahab...
CAD looks really strong now. My pending order got filled @ 1.0123. doesn't look too good at the moment (-30) and was close to my SL (1.0080)
N/U looked good at first. but went straight up now.
Hope we see the turn-around soon.
My third trade I got running currently makes almost up for the losses of the 2 others (Short AUD/JPY from 83.60) so overall around +/- 0 pips at the moment
pretty unsure what to do now..

Any idea what boosted NZD and CAD today....as Gold went down?
- For CAD I think near parity works like a magnet...

are you long in U/C as well.. or still holding your last short?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #96
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:02pm Mar 17, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab...
CAD looks really strong now. My pending order got filled @ 1.0123. doesn't look too good at the moment (-30) and was close to my SL (1.0080)
N/U looked good at first. but went straight up now.
Hope we see the turn-around soon.
My third trade I got running currently makes almost up for the losses of the 2 others (Short AUD/JPY from 83.60) so overall around +/-...
sorry to hear your U/Cad stopped out,
when I closed my N/U with 20 pips I should have posted here but I was so exhausted I just closed that one and went to bed ,
I still have the last short U/Cad , but I
took long U/Cad at another account- now they are -30 pips , I'll close them at B/E or -10/15 pips , I expect that to re-touch the broken weekly S
or comes close that.

as you said U/Cad is heading for parity and below

you asked for the reason,
here is the reason:
stocks are going to the moon
it seems the all worst financial crisis was just a joke, we are not even in the fib zones anymore
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  • #97
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:12pm Mar 17, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting shahab8b
as a side note, I got a margin call in Nov 2007 because of U/Cad, when it went below 1.00 I said it could not go more down, then I said again it couldnt go lower , and each time I added more long, finally I got a margin call .that was a big experience
I remember that well. I tried to pick the bottom in the 1.09 area, then added around the low 1.07's and gave up adding to it after that. I didn't get a margin call but it took about a year to come back to me (from memory) That's why I don't like trading it - always got the direction wrong. It's like dejavu all over again.

You're a busy bee with your threads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #98
  • Mar 17, 2010 12:20pm Mar 17, 2010 12:20pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
sorry to hear your U/Cad stopped out,
when I closed my N/U with 20 pips...
Now as I am writing my SL for the U/CAD long was hit.. happens
what a rally!
My N/U short might follow soon I think..
There are those days
One trade still in profit. AUD/JPY short.. but that one turned up as well now.
let's see.. sure there will be more opportunities

thanks for the explanation. stocks indeed seem to rally. Lets see how it goes on.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #99
  • Mar 17, 2010 6:47pm Mar 17, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting shahab8b
hi bsupreme,
generally speaking your are right about the strength of commodity currencies , as gold and silver and oil have been rising since feb/march 09,
but going long or short depend on your time frame beside your entry level
my point...
Hi shahab8b.

True different strokes for differrent folks. Personally I perfer contextual analysis picking my side on fundamentals and waiting for the technical setup. I use to trade purely technical trying to play both sides to squeeze every pip I could and had a very expensive lesson as I'm sure most of us have had. lol

I don't mind being patient the market will always be here but my account will not if I'm irrational and always flipping my position. I guess that was my lesson.

I only watch 1h and daily charts now. I use my downtime to scalp USD/JPY long positions and try to read up as much as I can my currencies of interest.

The real question is will a high CAD last. (I got in at 1.0200 USD/CAD short)

I found these to be interesting this week.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/mark...utm_medium=rss

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1502963/
  • #100
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:17am Mar 18, 2010 12:17am
I remain bullish sentiment on NZDUSD because all of higher time frames shows bullishness and usually NZDUSD has correlation with AUDUSD strength
http://myinvest888.files.wordpress.c...ng?w=484&h=248
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