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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #541
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:08pm Mar 16, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting AstonDan
Recycle Bin apparantly.
Wonder why I never said anything bad, who do I see about getting an explanation?

We are all capable of learning this stuff and being successful, don't put people on a pedestal, or be a sycophant. I thank DS for his posts but hes just someone who studied and invested time.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #542
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:16pm Mar 16, 2010 2:16pm
Please see my thread here.

Respond there to keep this thread clean.
  • #543
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:27pm Mar 16, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting Scotty B
It's nice to be able to back up the TA before you enter though.
Are you kidding, it would be great, probably the closest we'll ever get to the grail!

That's where I'm having a problem, confirmation using the tools mentioned. Any meaningful DOM doesn't exist for an OTC like spot forex, IFR as far as I can see is only a fraction of the information (a percentage of which is rumour) available to analysts who write commentary on places like Bloomberg. They, together with probably an army of other experienced analysts and economists, as well as market information which is probably unavailable to us, decipher it's meaning and market relevance in the context of a much broader picture, and who then publish (sometimes multiple) daily commentary. Even without the distinct disadvantage of only a fraction of the information and experience, where's the mileage in us trying to emulate them?
  • #544
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:42pm Mar 16, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting pipmutt
Are you kidding, it would be great, probably the closest we'll ever get to the grail!

That's where I'm having a problem, confirmation using the tools mentioned. Any meaningful DOM doesn't exist for an OTC like spot forex, IFR as far as I can see is only a fraction of the information (a percentage of which is rumour) available to analysts who write commentary on places like Bloomberg. They, together with probably an army of other experienced analysts and economists, as well as market information which is probably unavailable to us, decipher it's...
I find IFR very useful, not so much the commentary but the levels they publish, these option expiry's are given 1-2 weeks in advance and look how price reacts. Im not saying its a holy grail , but any clue to where orders are is useful.
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #545
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:47pm Mar 16, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting markmm
I find IFR very useful, not so much the commentary but the levels they publish, these option expiry's are given 1-2 weeks in advance and look how price reacts. Im not saying its a holy grail , but any clue to where orders are is useful.
Do they indicate which ones are more significant over others, and have you correlated the information with say Bloomberg? (Sorry to sound like an advert for Bloomberg but to me it's an invaluable free tool for active traders). Also do they put it in context or do you just get the raw info?
  • #546
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:48pm Mar 16, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting pipmutt
Are you kidding, it would be great, probably the closest we'll ever get to the grail!

That's where I'm having a problem, confirmation using the tools mentioned. Any meaningful DOM doesn't exist for an OTC like spot forex, IFR as far as I can see is only a fraction of the information (a percentage of which is rumour) available to analysts who write commentary on places like Bloomberg. They, together with probably an army of other experienced analysts and economists, as well as market information which is probably unavailable to us, decipher it's...
Even if you had DOM, what will you be watching for?
  • #547
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:53pm Mar 16, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting Scotty B
Even if you had DOM, what will you be watching for?
The same as you'd use it on any exchange traded instrument, there are a couple of youtube vids posted somewhere in this thread which demonstrate.
  • #548
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:57pm Mar 16, 2010 2:57pm
I think people shrug off the DOM because of the no central exchange. But I think it does have some use that is if you are using a dom from a institutional platform. I know that a lot of orders are said to be iceberged. But I've seen on the forum individuals who use institutional platforms like Hotspot regularly see 50-100 million orders get placed and executed. So i think if you looked at the DOM and studied it you could get a good idea of the available liquidity which I think would have definite uses. I'm sure there are a lot of other uses after you get used to it which are valuable when combined with other info.
  • #549
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:05pm Mar 16, 2010 3:05pm
Quoting markmm
I find IFR very useful, not so much the commentary but the levels they publish, these option expiry's are given 1-2 weeks in advance and look how price reacts. Im not saying its a holy grail , but any clue to where orders are is useful.
If those were the barrier prices then those options are dead. The idea is to beware of defensive selling as price approaches the levels. The larger the payouts the greater defense. Makes sense anyways. Once the levels are breached, the ambush is ended and in theory price can continue through the barrier prices if the market so chooses.
  • #550
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:08pm Mar 16, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting pipmutt
Do they indicate which ones are more significant over others, and have you correlated the information with say Bloomberg? (Sorry to sound like an advert for Bloomberg but to me it's an invaluable free tool for active traders). Also do they put it in context or do you just get the raw info?
They give the estimated volume (seen on my chart) usually is a very rough rounded to 100M. I don't check it with bloomberg, I correlate it with how price reacts to it, so far it has been pretty good, but its very early days.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #551
  • Edited 3:29pm Mar 16, 2010 3:18pm | Edited 3:29pm
Quoting Deusomega
I think people shrug off the DOM because of the no central exchange. But I think it does have some use that is if you are using a dom from a institutional platform. I know that a lot of orders are said to be iceberged. But I've seen on the forum individuals who use institutional platforms like Hotspot regularly see 50-100 million orders get placed and executed. So i think if you looked at the DOM and studied it you could get a good idea of the available liquidity which I think would have definite uses. I'm sure there are a lot of other uses after...
Who cares about iceberg orders? Do you guys realize why they exist? If there is a ridiculously large order sitting on a certain price, many traders won't touch it because the motives of the trader are probably foggy. Large pools of liquidity don't always mean it's an informed trader(s). Even if there is an iceberg though, you will see evidence of it else where. If the market can trade through it, look out. Size is valuable, especially to those who can afford it. Above size and you're on the rise, below size then demise. No secret. Spend some time reading MP stuff. There is valuable bits and pieces all over in many methods and ways of thinking to the whole puzzle you need to construct in your mind. It's putting it together that takes time. Repeating myself now, but I'm still putting mine together.

EDIT...To answer my own question about the existence of icebergs. The traders who issue them don't want to scare the market away from them without getting filled or partially filled..I don't know if there are fill or kill icebergs? They themselves are most likely informed traders, and so it becomes a game of cat and mouse between those who are well informed.
  • #552
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:27pm Mar 16, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting markmm
They give the estimated volume (seen on my chart) usually is a very rough rounded to 100M. I don't check it with bloomberg, I correlate it with how price reacts to it, so far it has been pretty good, but its very early days.
Still big chunks of data and information missing from the picture though such as implied volatility and heaven knows what else.

Don't get me wrong I'm not knocking what you're doing, but personally I can't see the practical value over what I've already mentioned.

Broker inefficiencies which fill orders 500 pips off market and let you keep the money, well now you're talking! If only....
  • #553
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:36pm Mar 16, 2010 3:36pm
Quoting pipmutt
Still big chunks of data and information missing from the picture though such as implied volatility and heaven knows what else.

Don't get me wrong I'm not knocking what you're doing, but personally I can't see the practical value over what I've already mentioned.

Broker inefficiencies which fill orders 500 pips off market and let you keep the money, well now you're talking! If only....
You get implied volatility data also, big offers/bids/stops also, this was just a sample of the data offered, Im not saying its even tradable yet but I am going to monitor it.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #554
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:40pm Mar 16, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting Scotty B
Who cares about iceberg orders? Do you guys realize why they exist? If there is a ridiculously large order sitting on a certain price, many traders won't touch it because the motives of the trader are probably foggy. Large pools of liquidity don't always mean it's an informed trader(s). Even if there is an iceberg though, you will see evidence of it else where. If the market can trade through it, look out. Size is valuable, especially to those who can afford it. Above size and you're on the rise, below size then demise. No secret. Spend some time...
Interesting post Scotty, I have to admit I haven't looked into DOM I was put off by people saying no central exchange and iceberg orders. Im wondering though how far up the book can you see i.e. can you see limit orders 200 pips away or is it only with 10 pips etc. I've never seen one live I might have a look. MP does that mean Market Participants?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #555
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:45pm Mar 16, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting markmm
Interesting post Scotty, I have to admit I haven't looked into DOM I was put off by people saying no central exchange and iceberg orders. Im wondering though how far up the book can you see i.e. can you see limit orders 200 pips away or is it only with 10 pips etc. I've never seen one live I might have a look. MP does that mean Market Participants?
On currenex it was configurable. I usually ran it on 25 pips either direction.
  • #556
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:46pm Mar 16, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting markmm
MP does that mean Market Participants?
I believe he was referring to Market Profile.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #557
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:50pm Mar 16, 2010 3:50pm
Quoting markmm
Interesting post Scotty, I have to admit I haven't looked into DOM I was put off by people saying no central exchange and iceberg orders. Im wondering though how far up the book can you see i.e. can you see limit orders 200 pips away or is it only with 10 pips etc. I've never seen one live I might have a look. MP does that mean Market Participants?
Don't ever put anything off unless you know it yourself to be useless. There are lots of canned answers to things around here. All DOMs I've seen/used show you the best 5 bids and asks. As the market ticks up or down you slowly see whats 'out there' on the edges. By MP I mean market profile.
  • #558
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:52pm Mar 16, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting pipmutt
Still big chunks of data and information missing from the picture though such as implied volatility and heaven knows what else.

Don't get me wrong I'm not knocking what you're doing, but personally I can't see the practical value over what I've already mentioned.

Broker inefficiencies which fill orders 500 pips off market and let you keep the money, well now you're talking! If only....
If you looked at IFR you would know they give IV too. Have you even looked at IFR?
  • #559
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:54pm Mar 16, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting Scotty B
Who cares about iceberg orders? Do you guys realize why they exist? If there is a ridiculously large order sitting on a certain price, many traders won't touch it because the motives of the trader are probably foggy. Large pools of liquidity don't always mean it's an informed trader(s). Even if there is an iceberg though, you will see evidence of it else where. If the market can trade through it, look out. Size is valuable, especially to those who can afford it. Above size and you're on the rise, below size then demise. No secret. Spend some time...
Yes I know what the purpose of iceberg orders are. I was saying it was one of the almost automatic responses whenever someone mentions a DOM in forex. "all big orders are iceberged" so DOM is useless is the usual response from FF.
  • #560
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:56pm Mar 16, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting Deusomega
If you looked at IFR you would know they give IV too. Have you even looked at IFR?
It's free if you have a real account with oanda. I don't know about demos. Plus, they offer other analysis from other data vendors as well. Most of it is crap, but sometimes it's at least interesting.
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