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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #461
  • Mar 15, 2010 8:25pm Mar 15, 2010 8:25pm
Enough BS for me..

Asks are getting slammed as we speak. It will be interesting to see if price can break above 3680. Just saying.
  • #462
  • Mar 15, 2010 8:27pm Mar 15, 2010 8:27pm
So? That will only bring the market back to where it closed at 5:00 NY time.

Although I did get a TD Sequential buy @ 8:35 pm.
  • #463
  • Mar 15, 2010 8:40pm Mar 15, 2010 8:40pm
Quoting markmm
I have to disgree with you there pip, to spend 1000's of hours studying and finding out stuff that makes money, you wont just tell everyone.
I agree, and I wouldn't expect anyone to, it's just the way it's being put across that there's some secretive ingredient or deep understanding required and that people who don't 'get it' will somehow fail as traders. That's a crock!

If we're talking about watching price action, making educated guesses about where orders are or what players next moves are going to be and their motives behind them then fine, it's all interesting stuff and a good education but it's certainly not a prerequisite to consistent profitability. Personally I think for a technical trader, especially a novice one, this stuff can be more of a hindrance than a help because it's so subjective, at least with 'pure' TA there are definitive strategies which can be traded with hard and fast rules and which leave less to trader discretion.

I can't help wondering though, if it all boils down to guesswork, rumours, and personal interpretation then how is it any more reliable than any other (perhaps simpler) approach?
  • #464
  • Mar 15, 2010 8:54pm Mar 15, 2010 8:54pm
Quoting spekkiefx
It is funny that you class critisism as bs. Maybe that is why you have not been profitable.
Most of the 'critisism' is being directed at the fact that there is no system to be found in this thread as in hows and whys. I guess you're right in a way. Criticism involves knowing something to a degree that you could point out error or flaws in another's work. I said, and I guess I'll say it again, this is not a system thread. We are in agreement. I don't see what the problem is.

The funny thing is that orderflow to me is the anti-system. There is not a special algorithmic decision process where you just plug in the variables. It's piecing together a story of whats going on in the market. In a changing world, it's going to be different each time.
  • #465
  • Mar 15, 2010 9:14pm Mar 15, 2010 9:14pm
Quoting Marsh

This post here, describes the mindset on how one approaches an order flow based trade. This should answer many of your questions.
The market's view of fundamentals and significant technical levels? Seriously, is that what this has all been about? There are pages and pages of that stuff all over the net, for example here. Pick an analyst, personally I like Redeker from BNP Paribas, job done!
  • #466
  • Mar 15, 2010 9:14pm Mar 15, 2010 9:14pm
Quoting Scotty B
Most of the 'critisism' is being directed at the fact that there is no system to be found in this thread as in hows and whys. I guess you're right in a way. Criticism involves knowing something to a degree that you could point out error or flaws in another's work. I said, and I guess I'll say it again, this is not a system thread. We are in agreement. I don't see what the problem is.

The funny thing is that orderflow to me is the anti-system. [color=Red]There is not...
Scotty,

You already know this.......

Discretionary trading can't be quantified, although your daily log can be put to math, winners vs. losers, % ROI, ect.... there's no static formula for the trade equation. Each trade is based on several variables and while they may share a common approach, each is different. The discretionary trader's edge is his/hers brain and the ability to interpret the market.

That being said most will not accept the discretionary way, seeking out rather a system methodology, where future performance is anticipated by historical data, which places the decision making on a set of static rules, usually indicator based, to formulate the trade. In doing so the trader tries unsuccessfully to shift the accountability from themselves to the market, so you hear things like the market has changed, or the system doesn't perform will in range, blah blah blah ------never the trader failed when things go wrong.

There are some algo's that make money, but tis far better to train the brain.

"There is not a special algorithmic decision process where you just plug in the variables. It's piecing together a story of whats going on in the market. "

Bingo, good luck on your journey.
  • #467
  • Mar 15, 2010 10:04pm Mar 15, 2010 10:04pm
Much truth in the post above^^^^^.
Very well put.
  • #468
  • Mar 15, 2010 11:56pm Mar 15, 2010 11:56pm
Quoting spekkiefx
What you have learned is your own as DS has not given anything away. Some vague blablabla. It is like a placebo, it may have you given the believe(confidence). Many things in forex work.
DS has NOT given anything away?
possibly NOT explicitly, but he HAS given us thoughts/ideas to chew on ---then & now.
Worthless or not, it depends on you, your perspective &/or the amount of working brain neurons in your head.

vague blalabalala??
something IS vague when & if u dont understand what that something is.
BUT when u have at least an idea/knowledge about that something, then that something becomes/means several/many things.

PLEASE dont expect everything posted here in FF to be explicit. there are things that u have to figure out on your own.
IF u want things ALWAYS said explicitly to u, & IF u always want people to tell u what u need & dont need & what u need to hear, then things/businesses like Trading are NOT for u.
  • #469
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:11am Mar 16, 2010 12:11am
Quoting pipmutt
it's just the way it's being put across that there's some secretive ingredient or deep understanding required and that people who don't 'get it' will somehow fail as traders. That's a crock!
That's never been said and is only your interpretation because you don't have any reading comprehension. Stop lying about everything troll and stop hijacking the thread.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #470
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:12am Mar 16, 2010 1:12am
What's obvious and not obvious?

Well, there are about three types of people in this world.
1) Speculators: they speculate, they win big and lose big.

2) Semi-concrete: they speculate here and there. And they
end up losing because of the random speculations.

3) Concrete: they do what they see in front of them.
It is because that's all they got. And it is also the real thing.
Nothing is better than the real thing.

That's about sum it up. If you still end up losing, then you
are just no good.

It's about time to really check your passon.
Are you in this market because of greed? Don't lie now.
If yes, then that is the start of all your problem.
  • #471
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:51am Mar 16, 2010 3:51am
Quoting pipmutt
I agree, and I wouldn't expect anyone to, it's just the way it's being put across that there's some secretive ingredient or deep understanding required and that people who don't 'get it' will somehow fail as traders. That's a crock!

If we're talking about watching price action, making educated guesses about where orders are or what players next moves are going to be and their motives behind them then fine, it's all interesting stuff and a good education but it's certainly not a prerequisite to consistent profitability. Personally I think for...
No one is saying there is a secret. The TA hard and fast rules are the problem and the reason it will always fail, the market doesn't care about hard and fast rules based on a fib or a trend line or a pin bar. All these things do is tell you what happened in the past, or how much something retraced.

To have half a chance you need to be looking in the right direction at least.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #472
  • Mar 16, 2010 4:19am Mar 16, 2010 4:19am
Quoting markmm
No one is saying there is a secret.
No, after all that it turns out there isn't one (marsh's post 457), it's just the way it was coming across from certain posters. There's nothing to 'get' or not get, this seems to be mainly about fundamentals and making an eductated discretionary guess about how the market views them and is likely to trade, that's fine. Like I say there's plenty of that type of analysis around the net from some quite well-respected analysts. Most fundamental traders take note of significant technical levels and most technical traders take note of significant fundamentals, neither has to be exclusive.


Quoting markmm
The TA hard and fast rules are the problem and the reason it will always fail, the market doesn't care about hard and fast rules based on a fib or a trend line or a pin bar. All these things do is tell you what happened in the past, or how much something retraced.
I see, so basically trading solely TA with a definitive trading plan is a waste of time because it will always fail, is that what you're saying?


Quoting markmm
To have half a chance you need to be looking in the right direction at least.
Absolutely!
  • #473
  • Mar 16, 2010 4:35am Mar 16, 2010 4:35am
Quoting pipmutt
No, after all that it turns out there isn't one (marsh's post 457), it's just the way it was coming across from certain posters. There's nothing to 'get' or not get, this seems to be mainly about fundamentals and making an eductated discretionary guess about how the market views them and is likely to trade, that's fine. Like I say there's plenty of that type of analysis around the net from some quite well-respected analysts. Most fundamental traders take note of significant technical levels and most technical traders take note of significant fundamentals,...
I still don't agree with what you think this style of trading is about, its based on understanding the market structure, participants and their motives and then finding a way to trade profitably from that.

Trading from TA alone i.e. ma crossovers etc is a waste of time. Things like price patterns are different if although that depends on your understanding I think. Are you arguing that using a Fib or MA will give you an edge?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #474
  • Edited 4:53am Mar 16, 2010 4:49am | Edited 4:53am
Quoting pipmutt
Personally I think for a technical trader, especially a novice one, this stuff can be more of a hindrance than a help because it's so subjective, at least with 'pure' TA there are definitive strategies which can be traded with hard and fast rules and which leave.........
I can't help wondering though, if it all boils down to guesswork, rumours, and personal interpretation then how is it any more reliable than any other (perhaps simpler) approach?
I think you make a very valid point here, in the sense that this thread can be confusing and even harmful to a novice trader, which should definitely pay his dues first and spend and extensive period of time soaking in the basics of TA before getting himself into this kind of conversation.

To me, this thread is basically an advanced course in forex trading. First you learn all the basic TA, then you think you have enough to be profitable. After a while you become a more seasoned trader and you realize that all the basic rules of TA - while a useful and essential tool - are in no way enough to be consistently profitable, as the markets are much more complex than that.

Then you move on to the "next level". This is different for each person and in no way I believe that "their system" so to speak is the right one for everybody. There are as many systems as people trading forex. DS, Scotty and others have chosen one path, based on a series of personal choices/preferences/knowledge which works for them and it's clear that it's something more than pure guessing, and in that sense I find it more reliable than just any other simpler approach.

What I am trying to say, not very eloquently, is that, at the end of the day, any trading system you choose boils down to "guesswork, rumours, and personal interpretation", as nobody knows what price is going to do. Yeah, like the OP, this is really stating the obvious, but I feel this is a simple truth that often gets forgotten.
  • #475
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:14am Mar 16, 2010 5:14am
Quoting Tenshi28
I think you make a very valid point here, in the sense that this thread can be confusing and even harmful to a novice trader, which should definitely pay his dues first and spend and extensive period of time soaking in the basics of TA before getting himself into this kind of conversation.

To me, this thread is basically an advanced course in forex trading. First you learn all the basic TA, then you think you have enough to be profitable. After a while you become a more seasoned trader and you realize that all the basic rules of TA - while a...
Why waste your time doing all the TA stuff when is doesn't work. Waste of time you don't need it.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #476
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:22am Mar 16, 2010 5:22am
I'm sick and tired of people who say that it is impossible to trade profitable using TA. And therefore I'm going to ask a question. Are you saying it because you weren't able to find a consistent strategy or because you saw some mathematical proof?
If there is some proof then please show it to us. If not then keep in mind that it takes only one trader to prove that you're completely wrong.
  • #477
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:30am Mar 16, 2010 5:30am
Quoting Sauron
I'm sick and tired of people who say that it is impossible to trade profitable using TA. And therefore I'm going to ask a question. Are you saying it because you weren't able to find a consistent strategy or because you saw some mathematical proof?
If there is some proof then please show it to us. If not then keep in mind that it takes only one trader to prove that you're completely wrong.
Its based on logic and knowledge of what moves price. When I say TA I am talking about using MA crossovers fibs etc, and trading based on that. Sure if someone trades long enough using these they will get a feel for the market and maybe see patterns (not a pin bar or a H&S). Try trading pin bars without any other information.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #478
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:45am Mar 16, 2010 5:45am
Quoting markmm
Its based on logic and knowledge of what moves price. When I say TA I am talking about using MA crossovers fibs etc, and trading based on that. Sure if someone trades long enough using these they will get a feel for the market and maybe see patterns (not a pin bar or a H&S). Try trading pin bars without any other information.
Why don't you "google" TA before bla bla bla about what you think TA is.....
Trading is the game of fear and greed.
  • #479
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:52am Mar 16, 2010 5:52am
Quoting markmm
Its based on logic and knowledge of what moves price.
And as long the price is moving you can profit from its movements without knowing the WHO and WHY.
The WHO and WHY make the price non-random, creating inefficiencies. If you know what tools to use for measuring them than you have a profitable strategy.
  • #480
  • Mar 16, 2010 5:57am Mar 16, 2010 5:57am
I believe everything is in the chart.
The chart is the footprint.

Fundamental news can be a factor.
But you cannot hide it from the chart.
It shows through. It is all factored into the chart.

Players especially big players cannot hide their footprint.
As small players we just got to know what to do.

AGAIN, all things show up on the chart.
Don't expect to win all the time.

The chart can and will lie to us some time
BUT it cannot lie to us all the time.
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