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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #421
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:42pm Mar 15, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting mikkom
There are some services that allow you to see retail stops. Oanda for example publishes the stop levels they have.

I don't need to be cryptic so here are few links

http://fxlabs.oanda.com/products/his...onhistory.html

http://fxlabs.oanda.com/products/his...erhistory.html
lol, thanks for being uncryptic

Not being funny but could/would you use that data to influence a trade decision?
  • #422
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:47pm Mar 15, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting pipmutt
Wouldn't it depend on how the broker/marketmaker queues orders, and where in the queue an order ends up?
Yeah I mean in terms of Market order vs stop orders triggered by the Market Order taking out its trigger price. Assume this is a simple market with one order coming in and one stop at each level.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #423
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:08pm Mar 15, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting FXEZ
If that's the case, why not just state it outright so those who are decoding the fisherman's riddles may get on with threading their pole with the right type of line and bait instead of bantering about the mystical beauty of the master baitsman's pole. I'll let you guys get back to polishing your poles.
lol, very dry
  • #424
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:09pm Mar 15, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting markmm
Yeah I mean in terms of Market order vs stop orders triggered by the Market Order taking out its trigger price. Assume this is a simple market with one order coming in and one stop at each level.
Can I have 50/50 or call a friend?

I have no idea is my final answer, let's ask the audience!
  • #425
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:16pm Mar 15, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting pipmutt
Can I have 50/50 or call a friend?

I have no idea is my final answer, let's ask the audience!
Ok to find out I will place a buy stop 3 pips above current price on EUR, and you can market buy with you whole account which must be a few million. See whos gets filled last.

Never mind Ill assume a) until told otherwise.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #426
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:31pm Mar 15, 2010 5:31pm
Please, read this study betweeen pages 12 and 17.

I think that, combining charts analysis and understanding the concepts of order flow only gives more "power" to a discretionary trader.

When I say the above, I don't mean that being only chartist or order flow trader isn't enough to be successful in this business.

In fact, and just based on my 2 years experience, psychological factors are what separate the winner trader from the loser.

Now, wouldn't a PB look more attractive if you had access to reuters or ebs book and it showed that the orders placed reinforce the PB signal?

Hey, just a theory. Never traded that way because by no mean I have capital to access those systems.

Best
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File Type: pdf Foreign Exchange Microstructure - A Survey.pdf   415 KB | 2,041 downloads
  • #427
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:58pm Mar 15, 2010 5:58pm
Quoting pipmutt
You know I'm not so sure, it's all so vague and incomplete, the information (if there actually is any information!) is so subjective and open to any number of interpretations, and none of it could be relied upon, it could be bluff and double bluff for all we know.

If it can be shown to have a practical benefit and be more effective over some extremely simple strategy like say a breakout strategy then sure, but so far there's nothing tangible to suggest it's anything more than smoke.....in my opinion.

Fundamentals also seem to be being...
Pip man, there are no mantees here that need saving. You don't need to go all passive-aggressive on the thread. Some people see value in whats being discussed and I'm sure there are lots of people who don't. If you can make money doing S/R breakouts, then good on you.

One thing we can be sure of is that nobody is going to lose any sleep if you can make money doing something else.
  • #428
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:28pm Mar 15, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting Darkstar
Pip man, there are no mantees here that need saving. You don't need to go all passive-aggressive on the thread. Some people see value in whats being discussed and I'm sure there are lots of people who don't. If you can make money doing S/R breakouts, then good on you.

One thing we can be sure of is that nobody is going to lose any sleep if you can make money doing something else.
What's the line in that movie, "I always worked under the assumption that Bob's problem was he just didn't get it, but his problem isn't that he doesn't get it, it's that he can't sell it!"

Anyway, like I said it's an interesting topic, I'm just waiting for something other than conjecture, guesswork, and fundamentals, something of substance that could be of practical use to a forex trader but it doesn't seem like that's going to happen by the looks of it.
  • #429
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:30pm Mar 15, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting markmm
Ok to find out I will place a buy stop 3 pips above current price on EUR, and you can market buy with you whole account which must be a few million. See whos gets filled last.

Never mind Ill assume a) until told otherwise.
Hardly scientific!
  • #430
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:36pm Mar 15, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting pipmutt
Anyway, like I said it's an interesting topic, I'm just waiting for something other than conjecture, guesswork, and fundamentals, something of substance that could be of practical use to a forex trader but it doesn't seem like that's going to happen by the looks of it.
You're right it isn't going to happen so leave you loser troll. Stop hijacking the thread.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #431
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:40pm Mar 15, 2010 6:40pm
I just got through reading this thread. I, in so many words, have been trying to say what Darkstar has been saying. Are there ways to exploit short term inefficiencies? Absolutely
see this is really what all you are after... you want to drive the race car, but only have your learners permit. Hell, Ive been trading for over 15yrs and I dont want to drive the race car. Why? because I cant Handel it, especially with a wife and 4 kids. This thing you seek takes more time than you have invested in all your TA learning career. And if you where shown exactly what to do if x then y, you wouldn't be able to capitalize with out the "zen". No mystery or riddles, Try it. find pnts of low liquidity and a bushel of stops, trade into them or fade them through in a options defense and wow you are now a "orderflow trader". Ill tell you this before you $#$@ your pants, if you dont understand the orders and Micro structure you've wasted your time.

Why dose a professional boxer step down to commentate? does he still know how to box? Or is it that his body cant take anymore abuse?

To be what you are looking for you have to know what your limitations are. can you make some money short term? yes, but chances are you cant keep up that level of focus. And you damn sure cant if you haven't even done the conditioning Darkstar is saying you MUST do before you try to run with the pros.

as i reread this post I wanted to add: My father is a absolutely phenomenal trader so I see first hand and can tell you I cant Handel the race car,,

I also realize what I can or cant handle may or may not fit all of you, so It came off arrogant that all of you can only handle what "I" can. I just want to say that there are prerequisites.
  • #432
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:40pm Mar 15, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
You're right it isn't going to happen so leave you loser troll. Stop hijacking the thread.
Tsk Tsk, bit abusive. People have the right to ask questions and debate. I a, not expecting DS or anyone to hand it to me, but its good to discuss this stuff and hear all opinions.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #433
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:43pm Mar 15, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting markmm
Tsk Tsk, bit abusive. People have the right to ask questions and debate. I a, not expecting DS or anyone to hand it to me, but its good to discuss this stuff and hear all opinions.
The guy is a broken record. The info here is useless for him then he should leave.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #434
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:51pm Mar 15, 2010 6:51pm
Quoting mr-T
I just got through reading this thread. I, in so many words, have been trying to say what Darkstar has been saying. Are there ways to exploit short term inefficiencies? Absolutely
see this is really what all you are after... you want to drive the race car, but only have your learners permit. Hell, Ive been trading for over 15yrs and I dont want to drive the race car. Why? because I cant Handel it, especially with a wife and 4 kids. This thing you seek takes more time than you have invested in all your TA learning career. And if you where shown...
All I get from this post is your father is a better trader than you.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #435
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:53pm Mar 15, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting markmm
Tsk Tsk, bit abusive. People have the right to ask questions and debate. I a, not expecting DS or anyone to hand it to me, but its good to discuss this stuff and hear all opinions.
I agree, and I've found most genuine people welcome challenge because it tests their theory and either exposes flaws/weaknesses or strengthens their resolve. If an idea or approach can't stand up under scrutiny then it's not going to fare too well under the pressures of trading.

(Resorting to abuse says more about the author than the recipient, most times it's not even worth replying to!)
  • #436
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:08pm Mar 15, 2010 7:08pm
Lets quantify, Better? in this case I will digress and say yes he is. My pnt was, without bragging, is that i am a very consistent trader, using Macroeconomics and orderflow over days and weeks to confirm my position... I average in and average out, But I am also saying that this "dream" everyone is after is short term trading, and having done it myself (if that makes you feel better) because i have and traded that way for almost 2yrs. is unsustainable. I dont want to put words into DS's mouth, but he has even told you , I can box with the pros. if i want, but there are things more important to spend every moment of time on of which i include MENTAL conditioning. And even more importantly, If you dont do the due diligence you dont have a chance because its not if x then y.

I am even seeing this now as people are thinking there is no "magic bullet" they are discounting its existence.

Put the time in worry about being better and being bigger will take care of itself.
Tell me to shut up and Ill go back to my hole!!
  • #437
  • Edited 7:18pm Mar 15, 2010 7:17pm | Edited 7:18pm
Quoting mr-T
Lets quantify, Better? .. you dont have a chance because its not if x then y.
lets blow your mind...

if x then
if z
then a
else y

no magic.
  • #438
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:21pm Mar 15, 2010 7:21pm
Quoting mr-T
Lets quantify, Better? in this case I will digress and say yes he is. My pnt was, without bragging, is that i am a very consistent trader, using Macroeconomics and orderflow over days and weeks to confirm my position... I average in and average out, But I am also saying that this "dream" everyone is after is short term trading, and having done it myself (if that makes you feel better) because i have and traded that way for almost 2yrs. is unsustainable. I dont want to put words into DS's mouth, but he has even told you , I can box with the pros....
Your posts a a rambling mess of bits of things DS has said and tooting your own horn with some over quoted trading clichés. Your past posts haven't been much better either.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #439
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:21pm Mar 15, 2010 7:21pm
Hey guys. It's all good here. This thread is ground breaking in what HAS BEEN shared already! It's not like the information contained here is going anywhere. Keep studying on your own, you won't get it until you have all the basics down. Judging by some of your comments it's blatantly obvious that you don't even have the basic micro structure stuff down yet. This is not a bad thing, beleive me, go look over most of my old posts- I didn't have a clue for a long long time and as I've been saying, I'm not all the way there yet. Most of my old posts are just embarrassing really.

Old Scotty lost a good chunk of change in the process too. In late spring last year I thought about it and realized I was an utter fool if I thought things were ever going to change if I didn't get serious. I'll quit with the personal testimony here, just refer to post # 1 of this thread to see where I've ended up since that time.

The answers you guys are looking for are really pretty simple. If I began showing what I was doing, many of you would probably say "oh... that's it scotty?" This is if you had the market structure stuff down. Many of you would have no clue what the significance was because you're just not there yet. Plus, I don't want to start a system thread. Chances are that I'm misusing the data that I do have. I have not yet verified any of it with anyone who actually knows what they are doing. I'm just doing what makes sense to me and it works.

I can honestly say that It was a trail of common sense after a lot of reading. The harris book, research papers, screen time, thinking and almost pulling my hair out. Most of this has all culminated in my mind this week. Darkstar's and Mike's posts finally cleared things up for me. They cleared things up because they told me what order flow trading IS NOT. That's all I needed.

You guys need to stuff your heads with lots of crap, get a rough idea of whats going on and then come back and read DS's and Mike's posts. You'll get it. When you do, I expect you to keep it to yourselves. Don't rob your fellow trader of taking the long hard road. It's worth taking for more reasons than being able to make a buck. In the end though, if you are profitable anyways, then why waste your time with this stuff? I don't beleive for a minute that this is the only road, it's just the road that makes sense to me.

If you want to cry and beg, fine, but you could be doing productive things with your time and taking baby steps to get started on your way.

Sorry if what I've said rubs you the wrong way. It is what it is.

I encourage the productive questions though, some of you have had some good ones. Market mechanics is a passion of mine. I like thinking the puzzles through.
  • #440
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:28pm Mar 15, 2010 7:28pm
Quoting pipmutt
I agree, and I've found most genuine people welcome challenge because it tests their theory and either exposes flaws/weaknesses or strengthens their resolve. If an idea or approach can't stand up under scrutiny then it's not going to fare too well under the pressures of trading.

(Resorting to abuse says more about the author than the recipient, most times it's not even worth replying to!)
I think the problem is in the way you phrase your challenges. There is a lot of passive agressive behavior in your writing. Its almost like your angry that nobody has noticed how much wiser and smarter you are then everyone else. Your not actually saying that; your implying it by the way your questions and comments are phrased.

I have no way of knowing if thats what you actually think or intend, but thats they way your posts sound (to me anyway) and its very annoying.

Now, if you want to say that its all BS then just say that its all BS and lets move on. Were all adults here and can take genuine criticism. We can also deal with genuine scepticism and questioning. What ISN"T going to work are passive agressive snips that lead to a flame war.

NOTE:// I'm not trying to get into an arguement with you. I'm just sharing my impression of your posts and why I think they provoke the responses they do. Do with it as you wish.
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