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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,121
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:18pm Mar 12, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting thadakman
Great job on reducing the emotional factor involved in trading... I'm still working on it! lol... 2 of the more recent books that I've read, "Trading in the Zone" and "Trading with your gut" have been very helpful... and it's very true that it shouldn't matter whether or not a trader is right or wrong on a trade, but instead how much a trader makes and loses on a trade, that's where the focus needs to be.

With that said, I agree CAD is a top performing currency and their economy seems very strong right now; but my overall trade plan is to...
Hey THAD: thank you for the insightful reply. You have a plan & that be the important thing for everyone to learn!

FOTO's posts are really educational. I agree that the USD has to eventually rise.
I just look @ the charts & await the sign that somebody has slipped Viagra into the US economy's diet.
  • #3,122
  • Mar 12, 2010 7:18pm Mar 12, 2010 7:18pm
beark-out finally, but what now?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #3,123
  • Mar 12, 2010 9:32pm Mar 12, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting shahab8b
beark-out finally, but what now?
If we do go to parity, we'll likely dip decently below and pop back over, then go under and back over... I'm predicting it'll play out much like the Pound did at the 1.50 handle... so there should be a few comfortable trades to catch there for 50-100 pip profits on the long and short side.
  • #3,124
  • Mar 13, 2010 3:11pm Mar 13, 2010 3:11pm
Shah: great Wkly chart ( its clarity assisted my thoughts) hope that my musings may help you make a decision.

1 triangle is broken to downside & you posted a TPP ( if memory serves me, said $ level was one that I posted (from a ScotiaBank report) Dec/Jan. Not boasting, only saying that it was info that made some sense wrt the technicals & should be filed as a POTENTIAL should the Loonie look bearish.
The same wrt FOTO's take on the USD strength: I have filed & earmarked Nov as an important fundamental point of interest(unless, the techs show a change earlier).

2 Your chart (weekly, I think) suggests to me that possible retrace could be to bottom of triangle.

3 My Wkly techs: W up TL was broken. MacD is <H2O & signal line.
However, $ is @ the lower BB-may suggest slight retrace ( NOT trend reversal)

4 Dly charts: MacD is down & < than H2O & signal.

5 CAD futures chart: MacD is up & > H2O & signal. STO is O/B ( slight retrace?). The 10 ema is > than the 25 & going up.
THE COMMs are increasing their short positions this past week.

6 My take on the macro-economy :
The Markets are MENOPAUSAL now!
There is no apparent rhyme or reason to the actions ( as could be seen pre 2008).

caveat emptor
  • #3,125
  • Mar 13, 2010 5:21pm Mar 13, 2010 5:21pm
I wonder what the possibilities of a gap down are?
Then again nothing goes in a straight line. Could bounce and then resume downtrend. I'm having a hard time gauging this one. A retrace would be logical unless oil decides to spurt up. I went long at 1.0170 but I think I'll close at open. Hopefully no gap down.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #3,126
  • Mar 13, 2010 5:52pm Mar 13, 2010 5:52pm
Quoting england33
I wonder what the possibilities of a gap down are?
Then again nothing goes in a straight line. Could bounce and then resume downtrend. I'm having a hard time gauging this one. A retrace would be logical unless oil decides to spurt up. I went long at 1.0170 but I think I'll close at open. Hopefully no gap down.
Hi england33, I think it may re-test the broken S line at 1.02-220 , the move in Aussie and Kiwi weren't drastic like this one , Gold and Silver didn't move much (actually Gold came down) and U/C COT is extremely bearish,the bear side is so crowded, it may go lower (or a gap on open) but it will come back for the re-test.
  • #3,127
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:16pm Mar 13, 2010 8:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi england33, I think it may re-test the broken S line at 1.02-220 , the move in Aussie and Kiwi weren't drastic like this one , Gold and Silver didn't move much (actually Gold came down) and U/C COT is extremely bearish,the bear side is so crowded, it may go lower (or a gap on open) but it will come back for the re-test.
I'm thinking a lower open is in the cards. We'll have to see.. I'm not very good a predicting these things. I'm only good at playing the charts as they go. Thing is if everyone thinks one thing usually a surprise happens but not always. Thanks for your response.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #3,128
  • Mar 14, 2010 5:48pm Mar 14, 2010 5:48pm
Inserted Video


Great read.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,129
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:11pm Mar 14, 2010 6:11pm
Quoting england33
have to see.. I'm not very good a predicting I'm only good at playing the charts as they go..
Angleterre33: Moi aussi. If you are on D or higher TFs then probability is short-according to chart "play".

If you have concern re: retrace (D MacD histo shows bullish div) then look to 0215 prev supp & then the down TL on the Wly chart (provided by Shah or Thad { sorry guys, I can't recall who provided the chart}.

As a confirmation of your decision to B/S you may wish to look @ the BEAVER.

I'm bearish the US/CAD ( for tek reasons),FOTO is bullish USD for fundamentals, I believe.

The MKT is cyclical. I shall be on the right side of the trade until I am wrong (the mkt changes direction). Then FOTO is on the right side of the trade ( I recall that FOTO was buying the dips),if that is the case, then FOTO shall have a heckuva lot of income tax to pay when the US/CAD changes trend!!!!!!
  • #3,130
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:25pm Mar 14, 2010 6:25pm
We traders trade based on different principles and therefore can be on opposite sides of the market at any time. In fact if thre is no opposite side to buy when we sell then there is no market. The most important thing is that we have a sound and profitable and complete system which would provide the edge that is needed to trade these markets. Whether usdcad goes up or down by the close of the day we will see at the close of the day. Someone will profit someone will not. However not profiting on this trade is not a negative as long as we learn from the trade and are prepared to trade again when the system gives another signal...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,131
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:51pm Mar 14, 2010 6:51pm
Quoting Duce
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNUGCu1hx88

Great read.
Heard a similar interview a few months ago. Apparently, this same sentiment has been suggested for a few years.

I would like to see this thought come to fruition.

High oil $ : ships coming to N/A & leaving empty are reduced.

: more likely for local produce to be found in the local store.
Unfortunately, this will not happen.
  • #3,132
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:10pm Mar 14, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting Olu
We traders trade based on different principles and therefore can be on opposite sides of the market at any time. In fact if thre is no opposite side to buy when we sell then there is no market. The most important thing is that we have a sound and profitable and complete system which would provide the edge that is needed to trade these markets. Whether usdcad goes up or down by the close of the day we will see at the close of the day. Someone will profit someone will not. However not profiting on this trade is not a negative as long as we learn from...
Wow; Olu; if you are not Canadian- you sure sound like you are.

  • #3,133
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:35am Mar 15, 2010 5:35am
Thanks Duce for the post. It supports a long term view that globalization was coming apart as nobody in the Western world really derived any benefits from it.

To Scarecru, there is still enough of America left that this Nation will not be sacrifised to those who believe that self flagellation has some devine inspiration. Where will Americans live, since the world hates us so? Those who would sell out America for a nickle, where will they run when they find the door slamed in their own faces over seas?

America and as being a part of North America is self suficent. The reality is that when it comes to energy America is a true giant with reserves that dwarf other global sources. It is political obstacles that inhibit access to those resources. Political obstacles can be overturned.

Current thoughts on the Fed this week. The Fed will signal that the move towards normalization is moving forwards.
This will test market conviction of recovery via equities. If equities hold or back up a small bit then the door is open for currency manipulation to be attached to China.
Higher rates in the U.S. will stabilize the USD and jobs will come back to the States for domestic consumption satisfaction.
This is one of the major tenents for the Bull case for the USD. That is to say that America which has the customers can supply those customers with domesticaly produced goods.

China thinks itself invincible, the loser will be China in this squabble. Their growth was supported by the worlds consumers and that is no longer the case. They have an overleveraged and unsustainable economic model that relies upon predatory currency practise to keep it afloat.

I am short the Aud/Usd based upon this thinking, as the break in Asian markets is a matter of time.

A non inflationary outcome in the US will trigger some pressure on commodities since they were run up in anticpation of monetization of the debt cycle. Will we have the $100/barrel as an ongoing situation, quite possibly. There remains substaintial deflationary forces in the U.S. to hold down inflationary consequences of high energy costs. The US has to transition to the new manufacturing by robotics world. It does not really need 1,000,000,000 cheap laborers.

This may be the start of the neo-isolationist economy but Americas hand is being forced in this matter.
  • #3,134
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:28am Mar 15, 2010 7:28am
Quoting Scarecru
Wow; Olu; if you are not Canadian- you sure sound like you are.

No I am not canadian. I am British though I feel I should be canadian the way the £ is going
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,135
  • Mar 15, 2010 11:00am Mar 15, 2010 11:00am
This post is for educational purposes.

Anyone who has access to the USD index charts should take a look right now. You will see what intervention looks like. Impossible to miss, especialy on the 1 minute bars.
Would venture the letter from congress got somebody upset.
  • #3,136
  • Mar 15, 2010 12:35pm Mar 15, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting foto
Anyone who has access to the USD index charts should take a look right now. You will see what intervention looks like...
Or even easier to see, check out the EUR/CHF as there have been some lovely SNB interventions over the past year +!
  • #3,137
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:44pm Mar 15, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting Olu
No I am not canadian. I am British though I feel I should be canadian the way the £ is going
Honourary Canadian status is hereby; bestowed upon you.

Admired the British domestic policy of +100 yrs ago. Sent the ambitious & adventuresome to Canada to get more wealth to England ( as well as keep the pesky frogs away) then sent the undesirables of society to Australia!
Simple, yet effective.
  • #3,138
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:46pm Mar 15, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting foto

This may be the start of the neo-isolationist economy but Americas hand is being forced in this matter.
FOTO: eloquently stated. I loved "...will not be sacrificed to those....self-flagellation has some divine inspiration."
I agree that there must be a return to the beliefs & values that resulted in N.A. flourishing.
Unfortunately, the aforementioned attributes have been eroded via the respective government policies these past few decades.
My take is the ANTS must now GIVE to the Grashoppers because the environment needs GHs in order to survive.
Await Nov & hope that you are right.

Now re: "higher rates in US..." I;also, want the higher %! However, B.O. has green-lighted Janet Yellin #2 in Fed Reserve. Doesn't she want rates to stay the same thru 2011?
My friend, I think that I shall remain USD bear not by choice; but, by teks for a while (until things get back to a norm experienced pre-recession circa 2007).
  • #3,139
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:05pm Mar 15, 2010 6:05pm
Quoting Scarecru
Honourary Canadian status is hereby; bestowed upon you.

Admired the British domestic policy of +100 yrs ago. Sent the ambitious & adventuresome to Canada to get more wealth to England ( as well as keep the pesky frogs away) then sent the undesirables of society to Australia!
Simple, yet effective.
Many thanks Scarecru.

Ii is with pleasure and gratitude that I accept this status. I want to thank my mother for making me possible. I want to thank forexfactory members escpecially Scarecru for all your help in getting this status I will forever cherish it...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,140
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:29pm Mar 15, 2010 6:29pm
great call shahab8b. I'll call the gaps and you call the retracement lol. we'll have to do this more often!
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
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