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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #361
  • Mar 14, 2010 2:00pm Mar 14, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting pipmutt
I tried the lesbo course but it don't work 'cos I still ain't one. Guess I need a fish, or a rod, or something.....
Either one or the other. Can't be both.
  • #362
  • Mar 14, 2010 2:49pm Mar 14, 2010 2:49pm
One thing that DS said in another post was to fade stops, but if a stop turns into a market order then it will consume yet more orders in that direction causing more imbalance and triggering more stops... and so on. Would you not then want to push into stops? Or do we look for this move and wait for it then fade it back, in the knowledge it has caused a gap on open interest.?
  • #363
  • Mar 14, 2010 3:06pm Mar 14, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting pipmutt
I tried the lesbo course but it don't work 'cos I still ain't one. Guess I need a fish, or a rod, or something.....




http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/hsc3138l.jpg
Pipmutt do you try to subtly troll threads? I noticed this in the behind orderflow thread too.
  • #364
  • Mar 14, 2010 3:18pm Mar 14, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting pipmutt
Isn't the disadvantage that forex is an OTC, there's no meaningful DOM. DS seems to be suggesting there's a way of simulating DOM.
Futures.
  • #365
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:35pm Mar 14, 2010 6:35pm
Quoting mikkom
Futures.
this was said once, but there was another answer too.
  • #366
  • Edited 9:10pm Mar 14, 2010 8:47pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting chatzi
Just one question DS, if we the IFR data, and have it on our charts, and we watch how price reacts around areas and overtime develop a strategy based on this, is that a good direction to learn?

Does the expiry cut off time matter? (10am EST)?

Thanks for all your post.

Chatzi
If you develop a strategy around this then just trade it. It doesn't matter what DS thinks if it works it works for you. DS didnt ask if something worked he just did it. That's how he has got to where he is he just does it. And I have problems with this myself. Wanting to have confirmation or reassurance.

But we just have to do it and not worry about what someone else thinks. Maybe we figure out something DS doesn't know or hasn't thought about. We need no confirmation or reassurance other than our own results. I guarantee if DS was trading a certain way where the results were impressive even if someone who was a profitable trader told him they didn't think it was the right direction... that wouldn't matter at all to him. Results are all that matter.

And to be helpful ... the answer to your question is in his post history.
  • #367
  • Edited 11:16pm Mar 14, 2010 11:00pm | Edited 11:16pm
Quoting chatzi
One thing that DS said in another post was to fade stops, but if a stop turns into a market order then it will consume yet more orders in that direction causing more imbalance and triggering more stops... and so on. Would you not then want to push into stops? Or do we look for this move and wait for it then fade it back, in the knowledge it has caused a gap on open interest.?


Isn't that one of the purposes of stop-running, to add momentum in a desired direction?



Inserted Video



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  • #368
  • Mar 14, 2010 11:02pm Mar 14, 2010 11:02pm
Quoting giraia_br
this was said once, but there was another answer too.
Which was.....
  • #369
  • Mar 14, 2010 11:04pm Mar 14, 2010 11:04pm
Quoting Deusomega
Pipmutt do you try to subtly troll threads? I noticed this in the behind orderflow thread too.
Relax, I was replying to someone else's post
  • #370
  • Mar 14, 2010 11:50pm Mar 14, 2010 11:50pm
Quoting pipmutt
Isn't that one of the purposes of stop-running, to add momentum in a desired direction?

You are skipping too far ahead in your thinking. Stops become a utility to informed traders. Before you think about stops you have to ask, what is (for example) euro worth? Say price is at 1.3500 and you know that in a month it will be 1.4000 because eventually everybody else will figure out what you know.

Lets make it even more real.. We are all watching Greece right now. Lets say that you are Joe Schmoe and you have connections that tip you off to the fact that there is some genius recovery/stabilizing plan in the works. When the broad public see's the plan, buying will significantly push price up. Knowing this, you have absolute confidence to put your money on the line, but you want to get in now with as little price impact as possible.

A little further...So price is at 1.3500 and has been ranging in a 50 pip range for hours. Participation is mixed, but there is lots of buying going on because many traders are just guessing that greece will be alright and that price will soon rise - but they are not sure. They are good guessers albeit, but because they are not sure, many of them have stops set at 1.3480, with the bottom of the range being in the 1.3490 range. So their stops are right below range. You have access to this information and it's going to take a small fraction of your trading capital to activate those stops. What are you going to do?

Don't take this as a hard and fast rule, but this is how I have been thinking of stop manipulation. Plus, I beleive I've seen this enough times on the chart to reasonably say that's what's going on.
  • #371
  • Mar 15, 2010 12:00am Mar 15, 2010 12:00am
Quoting Scotty B
You are skipping too far ahead in your thinking. Stops become a utility to informed traders. Before you think about stops you have to ask, what is (for example) euro worth? Say price is at 1.3500 and you know that in a month it will be 1.4000 because eventually everybody else will figure out what you know.

Lets make it even more real.. We are all watching Greece right now. Lets say that you are Joe Schmoe and you have connections that tip you off to the fact that there is some genius recovery/stabilizing plan in the works. When the broad public...
Sorry, I took that as a given, if I want to buy Eur I want to get it as cheap as possible. Push price down, trigger long stops which adds momentum, then buy. Trigger short stops on the way back up as well hopefully!
  • #372
  • Mar 15, 2010 12:01am Mar 15, 2010 12:01am
Quoting pipmutt
Sorry, I took that as a given, if I want to buy Eur I want to get it as cheap as possible. Push price down, trigger long stops which adds momentum, then buy. Trigger short stops on the way back up as well hopefully!
But how are you going to buy?
  • #373
  • Mar 15, 2010 12:10am Mar 15, 2010 12:10am
It's not just about setting off the stops to see price rise as if you're lighting off a fire cracker. It's about strong arming valuable positions away from other traders.
  • #374
  • Mar 15, 2010 12:17am Mar 15, 2010 12:17am
Quoting Scotty B
But how are you going to buy?
Huh?

Quoting Scotty B
It's not just about setting off the stops to see price rise as if you're lighting off a fire cracker. It's about strong arming valuable positions away from other traders.
Scotty you're dramatizing and making a simple thing way too complicated in my opinion, these are very basic trading tactics which have been around since the Ark, in fact I'm surprised they work any more but I guess people still put stops in stupid places!
  • #375
  • Mar 15, 2010 12:27am Mar 15, 2010 12:27am
Quoting giraia_br
this was said once, but there was another answer too.
If you are talking about aggregators/pools/big ecn's then yes there are some services but I personally would prefer futures data.
  • #376
  • Mar 15, 2010 12:50am Mar 15, 2010 12:50am
Talking about set-ups, there was a good example of a 'Schlossberg' trade on Cable earlier on....

http://i43.tinypic.com/e5mkur.jpg
  • #377
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:47am Mar 15, 2010 1:47am
Quoting pipmutt
I'm surprised they work any more but I guess people still put stops in stupid places!


  • #378
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:26am Mar 15, 2010 2:26am
Quoting pipmutt
in fact I'm surprised they work any more but I guess people still put stops in stupid places!
corresponding ...

Presenting Empirical Evidence Of The Existence Of "Greater Fools"

... The underlying premise: the hope that another greater fool will emerge. And emerge they do, until they don't, [and markets collapse bidless.] ...
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #379
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:57am Mar 15, 2010 2:57am
Quoting Deusomega
If you develop a strategy around this then just trade it. It doesn't matter what DS thinks if it works it works for you. DS didnt ask if something worked he just did it. That's how he has got to where he is he just does it. And I have problems with this myself. Wanting to have confirmation or reassurance.

But we just have to do it and not worry about what someone else thinks. Maybe we figure out something DS doesn't know or hasn't thought about. We need no confirmation or reassurance other than our own results. I guarantee if DS was trading...
I was asking him to clarify something he said, if someone states something I am within my rights to ask for clarification, whether I get an answer is a different story. I am not trading this way I have other orderflow setups that I am testing out.
  • #380
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:30am Mar 15, 2010 4:30am
Quoting Scotty B
You are skipping too far ahead in your thinking. Stops become a utility to informed traders. Before you think about stops you have to ask, what is (for example) euro worth? Say price is at 1.3500 and you know that in a month it will be 1.4000 because eventually everybody else will figure out what you know.

Lets make it even more real.. We are all watching Greece right now. Lets say that you are Joe Schmoe and you have connections that tip you off to the fact that there is some genius recovery/stabilizing plan in the works. When the broad public...
Scotty that has been explained many times, but you explained it (very clearly) in a way that helps hit the message home even more.

Great post!
Thanks

Rob
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