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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,941
  • Edited 9:50am Mar 14, 2010 9:39am | Edited 9:50am
Until someone do it well, here Google Translate to the lyrics.

The first:
http://lyrics.dreamnicky.com/singer180-1.html#lyric10


風雨同路- 徐小鳳

Rain go the same way

http://translate.google.com/translat...sl=zh-CN&tl=en

Second:

'm Looking for something wild to do
http://translate.google.com/translat...sl=zh-CN&tl=en

And 3rd:
http://translate.google.com/translat...sl=zh-CN&tl=en
  • #13,942
  • Mar 14, 2010 10:56am Mar 14, 2010 10:56am
Ok I am chinese, but my mandarin is really not up to it, let alone the dialects...my apologies....

Dear fti, good to see you again, I see you have been to our new playground ? We might had met.
  • #13,943
  • Mar 14, 2010 11:12am Mar 14, 2010 11:12am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Ok I am chinese, but my mandarin is really not up to it, let alone the dialects...my apologies....

Dear fti, good to see you again, I see you have been to our new playground ? We might had met.
mark
no la , was not in the que.i was hiding amongst untouchable sections. If i get caught would be another scandal la, banker's scandal not sex hor.

regards
  • #13,944
  • Mar 14, 2010 11:14am Mar 14, 2010 11:14am
Quoting j-pax
hey MY Tbo,

i am sorry i doubt your plan and what aiyahmarklah said.... i just agreed with hcong168 that Fti Mo is about being flexible... having a plan, IMHO, is not what dancing is about.

i hope my doubt makes you study hard.

kind greets, pax
My mandarin is lousy and my english is no better, flexibility, being able to adapt to changing market conditions ? Flexibility equals to no planning ? Thing I am trying to say here is that he has to define certain parameters for himself, otherwise, time will be a big problem (for most people here), flexibility requires time, and if one do not have suffcient time and yet tries to be flexible, most likely than not he will bail out at the worst possible price.

With that, I do not mean he should not be flexible, just be flexible about being flexible.

Regards
  • #13,945
  • Mar 14, 2010 11:19am Mar 14, 2010 11:19am
Quoting fti
mark
no la , was not in the que.i was hiding amongst untouchable sections. If i get caught would be another scandal la.

regards
Oh ? untouchable sections ? means no crowd ? thats cool.....has it met your standards ? I think they still have some lengths to go compared to macau. Feels like a singapore version of ocean park. But then again its made for tourist...
  • #13,946
  • Mar 14, 2010 11:22am Mar 14, 2010 11:22am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Oh ? untouchable sections ? means no crowd ? thats cool.....has it met your standards ? I think they still have some lengths to go compared to macau. Feels like a singapore version of ocean park. But then again its made for tourist...
sentosa and kokthay's genting has little diff. except chip stack is 4x more expensive, Sands may be interesting, Still waiting. Keppel's dining is nice.


regards.
  • #13,947
  • Mar 14, 2010 11:32am Mar 14, 2010 11:32am
Quoting fti
sentosa and kokthay's genting has little diff. except chip stack is 4x more expensive, Sands may be interesting, Still waiting. Keppel's dining is nice.


regards.
yeah looking forward, have a good week ahead sir...
  • #13,948
  • Mar 14, 2010 11:42am Mar 14, 2010 11:42am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
yeah looking forward, have a good week ahead sir...
what weekend, waiting for opening soon.
may be big hor. Fun starts if gap opening


regards
  • #13,949
  • Mar 14, 2010 11:52am Mar 14, 2010 11:52am
Quoting fti
what weekend, waiting for opening soon.
may be big hor. Fun starts if gap opening


regards
Sir, I said week lah, I am all rested waiting for the fun too...haha
  • #13,950
  • Mar 14, 2010 12:04pm Mar 14, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Sir, I said week lah, I am all rested waiting for the fun too...haha
sorry m old man reading not good.
Have a good one.
Use your Nitro 700 Express hor, no give chance.

regards
  • #13,951
  • Edited 1:07pm Mar 14, 2010 12:53pm | Edited 1:07pm
the winds on usd is changing, this may be BIG. Bias however is still only that, dance well.
[/quote]

I have to say Im learning to respect the fact that you leave your bias at the door as every where the dollar is showing weaker except on the reports you hear from the government that the market is turning around.

Im surprised that the usd index made it above 80 but it did so my bias is checked and trading what I see on the charts.
last week
81.423
81.513
79.603
areas of interest for usd index this week
81.085
80.240
78.395- 79.603 eyes open
  • #13,952
  • Edited 5:34pm Mar 14, 2010 3:33pm | Edited 5:34pm
Quoting lilpip
the winds on usd is changing, this may be BIG. Bias however is still only that, dance well.


I have to say Im learning to respect the fact that you leave your bias at the door as every where the dollar is showing weaker except on the reports you hear from the government that the market is turning around.

Im surprised that the usd index made it above 80 but it did so my bias is checked and trading what I see on the charts.
last week
81.423
81.513
79.603
areas of interest for usd index this week
81.085
80.240
78.395- 79.603 eyes open...
becareful of crystal ball paralex errors.
Be in the now, not past not future.
Old scorpions from the past?
Good Fortune.

regards
  • #13,953
  • Edited 5:12pm Mar 14, 2010 4:50pm | Edited 5:12pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
the Thing I am trying to say here is that he has to define certain parameters for himself, otherwise, time will be a big problem (for most people here), flexibility requires time, and if one do not have suffcient time and yet tries to be flexible, most likely than not he will bail out at the worst possible price.

With that, I do not mean he should not be flexible, just be flexible about being flexible.

Regards
hello aiyahmarklah,

i quit trading my modified way, dirived from fti's thread; modified because off my lack of time...
i said this is a system because there are some ridgit rules in fti's teachings.... like switch to higher TF for rescue and many more. that make this MO imposible for many here.

we have to be flexible how we look at the markets/dance but not be flexible about the framework so generously shared by fti.....

many generous people like you "helped" me and others with suggestions and i am thankfull for the effort, but the end result was: this is a proffesional way/system of trading and i cannot be FLEXIBLE enough.... Fti told me and i believe him.

you said: With that, I do not mean he should not be flexible, just be flexible about being flexible. " being flexible about being flexible" sounds like: "being rigid" this could be a good thing.

i know i sound negative but i mean well...

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #13,954
  • Mar 14, 2010 5:53pm Mar 14, 2010 5:53pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
I apologize if this has been asked before or if I am moving away too much from FTI MO/MM, but I would really appreciate input from anyone and of course from FTI if he desires so.

I am wondering does it make sense or not, instead of rescuing our position, we close it and "rescue" it at a next opportunity for entry. In charts attached I have tried to show 2 "scenarios".

The first "scenario" is staying with the scout and rescuing it. In this example it needed about 20 pips for B/E at the second (S3) rescue attempt.

In the second "scenario" we close our scout at loss, but enter with "rescue" size at the same place where we would rescue our scout if left to run. (We might be handicapped and not feel the market without the scout in). Now market needs to move less for B/E (only about 4-5 pips at S3 level ...... or we could have gotten out at S2 level with about 7 pips drop)

Also ....... drawdowns are much smaller for second scenario ( 20 vs 170), and naturally less time is needed to reach B/E level ...... and there could be earlier chances for B/E (e.g. at S2 level).

Of course we don't have to get to B/E ..... we could have "squared" all our positions for loss after prices started moving against us after S2 rescue.


P.S. In both scenarios a trader could flip and went long, but for the sake of presenting these 2 options ...... I left that out.


Thanks for reading :-)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rescue - vhands 1.jpg Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: rescue - vhands 2.jpg Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: rescue - vhand report 1.JPG Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: rescue - vhand report 2.JPG Size: 36 KB
  • #13,955
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:29pm Mar 14, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting acim
I apologize if this has been asked before or if I am moving away too much from FTI MO/MM, but I would really appreciate input from anyone and of course from FTI if he desires so.

I am wondering does it make sense or not, instead of rescuing our position, we close it and "rescue" it at a next opportunity for entry. In charts attached I have tried to show 2 "scenarios".

The first "scenario" is staying with the scout and rescuing it. In this example it needed about 20 pips for B/E at the second (S3) rescue attempt.

In the second "scenario"...
Acim,

Before you search for your answer first define the purpose of the scout.

You look for a pat answer for all charting scenarios, unfortunately each is different, trend, range, position inside the trend, trends current state many more all play a part in decision.

Think for a minute, if you are in a position with the main trend, then if your scout is in negative territory, your entry is mistimed, not necessarily wrong for the moment, one factor working against you is that you do not know how far it will go against you, but you do know how far it can go before it shows a reversal, but at the same time as you do not know how far it can go, you also do not know if the next moment it will stop and go in your direction. All you know at the moment is "yes or no" your are in the main trend direction. Once the position is booked for a loss, it is just that, a loss regardless of the next trade, overall profitability is the goal but the scout is entered for feel of the market, subsequent entries are based off its information gathered attack or rescue (or attack from a better position).

All that being said, each needs to find his/hers own balance between mental and financial risk aversion, what works for one, may not for the next, but just my thoughts, if the market is pushing your buttons, you need to reduce size, before you get into the habit of being squeezed out of the market just before the next run starts.

regards
  • #13,956
  • Edited 8:07pm Mar 14, 2010 6:34pm | Edited 8:07pm
Quoting j-pax
hello aiyahmarklah,

i quit trading my modified way, dirived from fti's thread; modified because off my lack of time...
i said this is a system because there are some ridgit rules in fti's teachings.... like switch to higher TF for rescue and many more. that make this MO imposible for many here.

we have to be flexible how we look at the markets/dance but not be flexible about the framework so generously shared by fti.....

many generous people like you "helped" me and others with suggestions and i am thankfull for the effort, but...
Hi pax,
yes i can fully understand your decisions and the frustration you may be experiecing in your quest.

Generally, close to 95 % of traders books are in the red. Whatever I am trying to do I would be happy if i could turn around 1% of that 95.

To trade professionally and profitably, all components of the mix of skills , mindset and personality is at play. And at different phases of the market, some of these components are stressed to very high extremes.

In the presentation of the required , i had try to highlight some of the dark side components and all should be aware that it is not exhaustive. But for some of the incumbents, they may not even have luxury to the minimum basic requirements. And for them I am of very high apology that there is little that i can suggest to pull them out of the quicksand.

the video i am about to present is not intended as punt.
But to show that all of us may have differing levels of lack in the required mix, but some are really beyond the scope of being trained, due to localised conditions within the personality or experience or skill or mindset or financials or time and commitments. Some lacks can, over long tenure, with effort, can be corrected. Just that the timing is not now.

Also read my response to acim about choices, coming up after thios post.

regards

Inserted Video


PS:it is difficult to go to a pay phone with 9 cents and expect to make a call. I respect that you are prudent to know yourself and your limits. It tells me you have a good head on your shoulders.
  • #13,957
  • Edited 8:17pm Mar 14, 2010 6:54pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting acim
I apologize if this has been asked before or if I am moving away too much from FTI MO/MM, but I would really appreciate input from anyone and of course from FTI if he desires so.

I am wondering does it make sense or not, instead of rescuing our position, we close it and "rescue" it at a next opportunity for entry. In charts attached I have tried to show 2 "scenarios".

The first "scenario" is staying with the scout and rescuing it. In this example it needed about 20 pips for B/E at the second (S3) rescue attempt.

In the second "scenario"...
Hi acim,
I understand where you coming from on this question.
But consider this, that you will not know what is coming at you always, only from hindsight can you see better strategies.

Your suggestion of trasvesing time and levels, is only valid only from the perspective of hindsight to expectations. Having bias and expectations is already bad , but mostly unavoidable. But to suggest ability to traevest time becomes bad mindset altogether.

Also note that interbank spot players, mostly are unleveraged, Thats why it is called spot trading. Actual cash is transfered between the participants. So in fact the finacial institutions players always have an exposure, unlike speculative players who trades on margin.

Another perspective is that, mostly all who trades have an exposure always,. Aside is a position. There is also risk, risk of opportunity loss, which is opportunity cost.

On the question of rescues. Such must only be done in accord to the strength of the book as well as the sigma , of that the position will damage the book. Generally when rescues are drawn out into higher tenures, not only price risk must be considered. This is because time risk , begins to be a factor to the positions. That is why you are not taught to go fight rescues against the trend.

Generally when to daily tenures, your volatility risk by average of time pricing is about 10 to 15 % historically. So traders that carry into daily tenures, and who use leveraged positions must realise that their 2 to 5 % margins deposited for the position have no chance at all to survive , even a normal distribution of the general average volatility. You carry your positions into daily rescues at your own peril.

I suspect that you had not read the thread carefully. That you may have misconstrued that which is being taught.

For leveraged accounts, even the attempt into hourly battles already is most dangerous. But if you insist to fight trends and rescue "dead in water" situations, then you are in most dangerous mindset.

Always you must match book risk to book's ability to allow the risk.

I hope you understand.
regards

A word about overtrading.
You see what the CFTC had realised was the risk many traders are over exposed to in 100:1 leverages.
Generally , 10:1 is already high leverage, that can lead to overtrading.
But of course they are wrong to apply lower leverage across the board, because prudent traders, normally use the high leveraged marginings, but their var (value at risk) is kept to low , or their tenure of exposure is taken only on the short tenure to mitigate the higher volatility risk of long tenure positions. The high leverage is used as vehicles to keep cost of funds low.

The overtrading (over gearing) is whats killing many inexperienced traders.

Another factor is fixed ticket sizes. This takes away from weaker funded traders the ability to mitigate the risk to their acceptable and managable levels. This is one plus i respect Oanda for. Their trade even $1 policy. Makes for flexibility in the var management.
  • #13,958
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:06pm Mar 14, 2010 9:06pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
Quoting auxesis
Acim,

Before you search for your answer first define the purpose of the scout.
Hi Auxesis, thank you for your response. I did mentioned in my post ...... "(We might be handicapped and not feel the market without the scout in)"

On the other hand ....... if my position is a few levels deep rescuing ..... I could close with loss all but scout and then attempt another rescue or flip if I feel market is changing direction.

[auxeis: "You look for a pat answer for all charting scenarios"] ..... I understand your concern .... and I agree when you say for scenarios :"each is different, trend, range, position inside the trend, trends current state many more all play a part in decision."

[auxeis: "you do not know " ]...... has been repeated I think 4 times ...... that was a reason for my post ...... we do not know what the market will do next .... so instead of waiting for a next opportunity to rescue with all your positions in the market (and "trend" still valid) ...... I was just curious does it make any sense to at least reduce the size (to scout or larger) and rescue again at the "better" level/price. If PA shows us trend reversal as it moves, my loss is only a scout and not much larger "scout + rescue levels" position. There is a chance market will not turn back with "trend" at the level we feel it should ...... so why "wait and see". If it does go back with our trend we can attack ..... if it doesn't ..... we have a small scout loss ???

I am not sure if I have expressed my thoughts clearly ...... but again .... thank you auxeis for taking time to respond :-)
  • #13,959
  • Edited 10:00pm Mar 14, 2010 9:26pm | Edited 10:00pm
Quoting acim
Hi Auxesis, thank you for your response. I did mentioned...
Acim,

I understand what you are trying to get at, to me the scout is just a part(small part) of the overall position. When I get myopic in my entry level analysis (trying to pinpoint exactly the turn ) then I tend to get very attached to the bias.

(that being said there are times when I view the chart and my thoughts would lead me to believe that certain points should offer a reaction, when they don't it makes me rethink)

Generally the scout, initial entry size goes in and I start to position from there, depending on how the following PA unfolds.

I would refer you to FTI's answer above for a better understanding.

regards

To add: once I attack, I will not drag my attack level "once positive" into negative territory if at all possible, there are times when price would whip back, I'll be dumping my adds as fast as I can and reevaluate the remaining position. But trying to feel the turn of the retrace looking for the next thrust , I'm not real worried if my 1st entry doesn't find the exact spot, it's when price retraces back past the prior turn when I find myself in trouble. More often than not this happens trying to enter a position after the current directional move has been going on for a while. Ideally we want to stay in the market, obviously we can't due to the need of sleep and family obligations. When coming back into the market, you have to be careful trying to enter midtrend, might be better to wait for the move to finish before engageing. Offering a better oppertunity to establish your base and protecting it.

fwiw, regards
  • #13,960
  • Mar 14, 2010 10:02pm Mar 14, 2010 10:02pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
Quoting fti
Hi acim,

But consider this, that you will not know what is coming at you always, only from hindsight can you see better strategies.
FTI, I really appreciate your answers and inputs. I again apologize for my "rambling" in my previous and this post, which might come from years of losses in the markets.

With my post I was just curious has anyone tried this "strategy" but wasn't successful or didn't like it, or too confusing...... precisely because .... as you put it ......["you will not know what is coming at you always"]


[fti:"risk of opportunity loss"] ....... I have no problem jumping back in ..... if I got out ..... and market goes back to trend. But sometimes it's not possible .... market moves fast .... and one can't back in ..... I can live with that.


[fti:"You carry your positions into daily rescues at your own peril."]
The chart I posted was for "illustration" only (for "levels")....... I don't have time or "book" to try to prolong rescue into days.


[fti:"I suspect that you had not read the thread carefully. That you may have misconstrued that which is being taught"]
I have read both threads only ones (and reading it for a second time) ..... so it's quite possible ....


[fti:"But if you insist to fight trends and rescue "dead in water" situations, then you are in most dangerous mindset."]
This is one of the reasons I was contemplating about "second scenario/strategy" ....... because I don't like to be "wrong" (which is wrong mindset) ..... so I rescue when I shouldn't .... and (if I have noticed correctly) other fellow traders in this thread sometimes do that as well. So I was thinking this second approach might be better for me. On the other hand ...... maybe no approach can help me ....lol


Thank you again fti for your reply and for all of your other <almost 4000> posts :-)
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