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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #281
  • Edited 11:43pm Mar 13, 2010 11:42pm | Edited 11:43pm
Quoting Scotty B
It's not there to distract. I think a better analogy would be to say it's a language all it's own. The hard part is learning how to read it and find the message. It just takes time. I have a ways to go still myself, but accepting this is the first step.
i would have to question that answer in that do you really find value in any of the bells and whistles (fib, gann, ma, even volume itself, etc etc) to be useful? for what seems to always be subjective interpretation, such exacting tools hold no value when you can eyeball the same info and get a subjective answer to the question these 'tools' provide answers for.

i suspect perhaps you misinterpreted my post as meaning something else. otherwise i'm really up a creek without a boat, but i have a paddle.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #282
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:56pm Mar 13, 2010 11:56pm
Quoting nubcake
i suspect perhaps you misinterpreted my post as meaning something else. otherwise i'm really up a creek without a boat, but i have a paddle.
Those that will know, won't tell. Those that will tell, won't know.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #283
  • Mar 14, 2010 12:00am Mar 14, 2010 12:00am
Just wanted to say thank you to ScottyB for starting this thread, it's been interesting.

Thank you Darkstar and Mbqb11 for your takes on the Eur/Usd order flow.

And Thank You to everyone else that contributed.

.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #284
  • Mar 14, 2010 12:00am Mar 14, 2010 12:00am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Those that will know, won't tell. Those that will tell, won't know.
DAMNIT GOOSE IT'S A SUNDAY OVER HERE AND I JUST FINISHED WORK AWHILE AGO...

chinese mind-games messing with my damn sunday no sleep-in gotta work tomorrow messing with my head speaking riddles .... DAMNIT

HULAUGLAUGHA.

*ahem* that is all.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #285
  • Mar 14, 2010 1:20am Mar 14, 2010 1:20am
I dunno, this whole order flow tape reading time and sales volume approach, shrouded in mystery and intrigue by those who won't (or can't?) spit out exactly what they mean seems to be just as subjective and open to individual interpretation as any other analysis, after all it's based on nothing more than the same data visually represented on a chart. Attempting to see into the minds of players to try and understand their motives and predict their next move is like trying to read a poker player I imagine, they'll only tell you what they want you to know (candle painting etc) for obvious reasons. As far as predictions based on fundamentals, it's again subjective and open to any number of interpretations and contexts, just tune into Bloomberg to hear conflicting views from some well-respected analysts and economists.

If it works for you then great, there are endless ways to skin this banana, but I get the impression from threads like this from the "I know but I ain't telling" brigade that in actual fact there really isn't anything new or secretive to tell after all, it's all just the same old same old, trading is trading!
  • #286
  • Edited 1:33am Mar 14, 2010 1:25am | Edited 1:33am
Well, 95% traders will lose.
Why?

It all boils down to ignorance, lack of experience.
Think of Forex as game like in Blackjack or Poker.

Who are really on the opposite side? It is the brokers and the bankers.
Think of them as the house.

They can break you or make you.
If they go with your trade, you win.
If they go against your trade, you lose.
They have your order; they can act with or against you.

What you need to understand is game theory.
Make sure you end up with POSITIVE EXPECTANCY regardless
what the house can throw at you.

If you can survive with POSITIVE EXPECTANCY or net profit
in the long run, you are the champ!

Why am I giving the secret away? Because I am sick and tire of people
being poor and complaining and whining.

NOTE: I have a system that is winning. And believe me, the broker have been
giving me hard time with all kinds of excuses. But who cares. I know I will keep on winning.
I will stay with them until they banned me.
  • #287
  • Mar 14, 2010 1:36am Mar 14, 2010 1:36am
Oh gee, looks like it's happy hour.....
  • #288
  • Mar 14, 2010 1:48am Mar 14, 2010 1:48am
Quoting pipmutt
I dunno, this whole order flow tape reading time and sales volume approach, shrouded in mystery and intrigue by those who won't (or can't?) spit out exactly what they mean seems to be just as subjective and open to individual interpretation as any other analysis, after all it's based on nothing more than the same data visually represented on a chart. Attempting to see into the minds of players to try and understand their motives and predict their next move is like trying to read a poker player I imagine, they'll only tell you what they want you...
pipmutt, you nailed it. Best post on the thread.
  • #289
  • Mar 14, 2010 3:00am Mar 14, 2010 3:00am
Yes, there are many roads to success in Forex.
Order flow can be a possible route.

Just make sure you end up net positive as a winner and not a loser.
  • #290
  • Mar 14, 2010 3:10am Mar 14, 2010 3:10am
Quoting pipmutt
Oh gee, looks like it's happy hour.....
I could tell you...but then I'd have to kill you.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #291
  • Mar 14, 2010 3:52am Mar 14, 2010 3:52am
Quoting Four Kids
pipmutt, you nailed it. Best post on the thread.
This guy I like

Joking aside, I think there are some accomplished traders in this thread but if they want to share their approach I wish they'd just get on and do it in it's entirety rather than dangle carrots of obscure sound bites!
  • #292
  • Mar 14, 2010 3:54am Mar 14, 2010 3:54am
Quoting The Fool
I could tell you...but then I'd have to kill you.
Wow that's some risk:reward, let me think about it.....
  • #293
  • Mar 14, 2010 5:13am Mar 14, 2010 5:13am
Quoting pipmutt
after all it's based on nothing more than the same data visually represented on a chart
Charts themselves can't tell the WHOLE story though. Mike qualified this issue when he says not all pin bars are the same. There are other factors that need to be given your attention. It's simply a comprihensive approach that these guys are talking about. Sometimes it doesn't make logical sense to take a trade even though the chart is screaming at you.
  • #294
  • Mar 14, 2010 5:19am Mar 14, 2010 5:19am
Quoting pipmutt
I dunno, this whole order flow tape reading time and sales volume approach, shrouded in mystery and intrigue by those who won't (or can't?) spit out exactly what they mean seems to be just as subjective and open to individual interpretation as any other analysis, after all it's based on nothing more than the same data visually represented on a chart. Attempting to see into the minds of players to try and understand their motives and predict their next move is like trying to read a poker player I imagine, they'll only tell you what they want you...

There are, so to speak, two types of order flow trading as i understand. One is the short-term noise trading and the other one is a longer term sentiment (or flow) grasping.

The first one is your so called "I know but I ain't telling" type of approach. And when you think about it, how could it be otherwise when it's directly (stops) based on a premise that if I expect to win YOU have to lose. The strategy should be pretty clear cut, so if you throw something like that along with the source to the public you no longer find the losers easily. That, coupled with loads of imitators and you have yourself an useless strategy where your expectations are already discounted. (let me know if i'm too conspiracy driven here).

I have always thought to myself that the above noise trading is what made the whole order flow approach so appealing in the first place. And why wouldn't it be when you have a direct relationship with big players (large orders), losers (stops) by your side. These are concrete figures not blurry technical bullshit. Now you can figure it out WHY it sounds like a "get rich quick scheme". It doesn't even matter that the majority here fails to account the fact that (putting it in Darkstar words) "...even having the above you're still going to fail without the feel for the market..." which leads me to the other type of order flow.

As you might already figure out, it's the boring-difficult-experience needing - type of trading. It's not so much the noise and 20 pip trading as it is figuring out true places of the so called oversold, overbought situations. Like Darkstar said, you know it but you just don't buy it. And it is Difficult to buy it when previously in your trading career you have been acting probably the exact opposite. I know i have. I have seen tons of situations, even on the 5min chart where price goes up and up...then consolidates for a second and then goes uuuppp and at that point i feel certain that at these levels with the degree of buying it can't continue. But i'm not "buying" it (i do feel the graaaaadual change now) and probably for the previous reasons.

So, Putting it in the words of Skfx: you have to be ready to get it. And, as Dr. Geppynius have said: you need shitload of screentime to get a feel for it. (experience)

and finally (maybe the most important ? well, it's up to you to figure it out) in Darkstar's words: your pchycological issues completely resolved. (difficult). And those arise, belive me. You gotta have a sick self confidence to put your money where your mouth is at places where you FEEL IT but are just not "buying" it.

Trading should be boring and stressless but rarely anyone acknowledges that. Why most start at forex ? Because they like the thrill, excitement and casino. Getting rich quick is the name of the game not the boring concept of maximising profits in the long run. Why did you start smoking at the first time when you were underaged ? Did you felt that: "i'm 15 years old and i really need to smoke...and it has nothing to do with me being cool or anything!!"

Finally, there's this one thing i'd like to point out. Darkstar said that he has sacrafied a lot when he was glued to the chart in the earlier days AND that there are other MORE IMPORTANT things in life than forex, money and charts. True. No arguing there.

However, what we are dealing here is the most aggressive and competetive business in the world. And i believe that a big part of your success is precisely thanks to the heavy screen time that you have sacrified. You have to gain an edge somehow. And you can't get it by treating the business with a "dick half hard".

Also, it's a pure progress of human mind to eventually switch from daytrading to long term trading. It's the course of maturity in life as well as in trading. But until then vast screen time will do you no harm (in terms of developing trading skills.)

just my 2 cents,

lumesh
  • #295
  • Mar 14, 2010 5:37am Mar 14, 2010 5:37am
Quoting Scotty B
Charts themselves can't tell the WHOLE story though. Mike qualified this issue when he says not all pin bars are the same. There are other factors that need to be given your attention. It's simply a comprihensive approach that these guys are talking about. Sometimes it doesn't make logical sense to take a trade even though the chart is screaming at you.

indeed!

thats way I'm in opinion that everyone must get the concept of market structure right to understand the charts. Only than one man can skip trades that may scream to us to take them. I always have preach this.

After doing this for several time and with a mindset all this stuff will be part of yourself.

Your subconscious will know that every time price move up or down,even by one pip,then someone for any reason is participated in the market.Price behave like it does because of some reasons, the move is reasoned.

So, to rationalize the market, it is my belief that you must know why price is moving.

If you can understand even one reason why price will behave a certain way at a certain point or at a certain time, and you can profit from it,you are already a step further in achieving your consistency

its just my point of view

all the best!!

ps: you have done a great work by starting this thread
  • #296
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:05am Mar 14, 2010 6:05am
Quoting lumesh

just my 2 cents,

lumesh
This post is in-line with my beliefs.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #297
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:06am Mar 14, 2010 6:06am
I agree.


You must understand the chart, the price movement.
Why does it move in a certain way?
Is it a setup or a trap to make me lose money.

Am I willing to lose money eventhough it could be a setup?
Once you are ready beyond the doubt, I say go for it.

Make sure you end up positive in the long run.
Again, it is the POSITIVE EXPECTANCY that counts
regardless of what people may say.
  • #298
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:07am Mar 14, 2010 6:07am
Quoting Scotty B
Charts themselves can't tell the WHOLE story though. Mike qualified this issue when he says not all pin bars are the same. There are other factors that need to be given your attention. It's simply a comprihensive approach that these guys are talking about. Sometimes it doesn't make logical sense to take a trade even though the chart is screaming at you.
I see at least three different levels of knowledge (i.e. analysis) here. OK, let's use the good ole pinbar as an example.

Level 1. The most primitive form of knowledge is merely candle-based, i.e. a pinbar of a certain shape and size is a bullish or bearish setup.

Level 2. The next level looks at the chart-based context of the pinbar, i.e. its position in relation to the current move, relative to key levels like support/resistance, the time of the day, and possibly other factors. So far, all of this information can be derived directly from a price chart, and allows a fairly objective case to be made, in terms of the validity of the setup.

Level 3. The most sophisticated level attempts to understand, both from the price chart, and possibly from other known data, what is going on behind the chart, in terms of order-based supply and demand. For example, certain patterns might indicate stop hunting, sell offs by heavyweight players, etc. There are expensive charting applications capable of showing buy and sell volumes at each price level (I assume that they plot futures data). Our pinbar merely denotes high-momentum rejection of a certain price level; an orderflow mindset seeks to ascertain WHY the level was rejected. Other data (options placement, open interest, etc) can provide an further insight as to WHO and WHY. We are heading into increasingly subjective analysis with some of this.

'Pure' TA can get us to level 2, and parts of level 3 can be gleaned merely from the price chart, i.e. a certain pattern in a certain context leads to a subsequent (on-balance) directional bias. As has been pointed out, the technical trader may be incorporating orderflow concepts into his analysis, without actually realizing that he's doing so. (For example, S/R levels are a product of order placement and flow).

Knowledge-wise, I'm miles behind where Scotty, Mike and many others are, but I don't necessarily believe that it places me at a severe disadvantage. Pure guesswork will see us right 50% of the time, and beyond that there's only the spread that stands between us and the attainment of positive expectancy. Given high enough transaction frequency and the 'magic' of compounding, a small edge (backed by sensible MM) is all that's needed to deliver significant monthly gains.
  • #299
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:13am Mar 14, 2010 6:13am
Yes, there are many roads to Forex success.
5% winners compared to 95% losers may seem scary.

But here is a quote from my forex club site for all to think about:

"To be wealthy, you got to be willing to go the extra miles and take the path where 95% of majority fail."
  • #300
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:26am Mar 14, 2010 7:26am
footnote :

i think it's time we stop talking about 5% winners 95% losers. firstly, i haven't seen a comprehensive study done to show this to be the case, but I don't discount it's possible existence. secondly, would it perhaps be more fitting to rephrase it to 'there are 5% who persevere until success, and 95% who do not'?

YOU SUNK MY BATTLESHIP!
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
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