What Market Analysis to use? | Forex Factory

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What Market Analysis to use?

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 3, 2010 10:57am Mar 3, 2010 10:57am
so i am back to the drawing board. Before learning any sort of mechanical trading systems, I would like to adopt ways of market analysis, What I liked about Elliott Wave is that it provide a context of market analysis, it is a filter that you use to view the market, and come to conclusion about future price movement. what other sort of market analysis are out there that are accurate and stood the test of time? wolfe wave, harmonics etc? price action?

thank you.

*** I have studied elliott wave intensely for the past 3 months, finished reading the book and other dvd on it and made notes. I signed up with EWI currency specialty service as well as short term market forecast. but so far my result have been mediocre, and EWI forecasts hasn't been satisfying either. Still though i will not give up the analysis, since patience and discipline is needed to succeed in this analysis, when some said Elliott Wave is not the holy grail, they weren't kidding AT ALL
  • #2
  • Mar 10, 2010 6:55pm Mar 10, 2010 6:55pm
Can you post your brief description-conclusion of
what you got about EW so far.
Do you believe that new wave started even if 1 pip breakout?
  • #3
  • Mar 10, 2010 8:43pm Mar 10, 2010 8:43pm
Quoting halfstep
so i am back to the drawing board. Before learning any sort of mechanical trading systems, I would like to adopt ways of market analysis, What I liked about Elliott Wave is that it provide a context of market analysis, it is a filter that you use to view the market, and come to conclusion about future price movement. what other sort of market analysis are out there that are accurate and stood the test of time? wolfe wave, harmonics etc? price action?
You may want to look into Market Profile. You can reference the official book by Peter Steidlmayer - "Trading with Market Profile" and/or the book I studied and many prefer by James Dalton - "Mind over Markets". The CMEGroup also has online tutorial videos available for free to get you started. MP is used by futures traders however the methods apply to all markets. I use it for index futures and currency trading. Good luck with your trading.
"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #4
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:45am Mar 11, 2010 9:45am
Quoting Tradester
You may want to look into Market Profile. You can reference the official book by Peter Steidlmayer - "Trading with Market Profile" and/or the book I studied and many prefer by James Dalton - "Mind over Markets". The CMEGroup also has online tutorial videos available for free to get you started. MP is used by futures traders however the methods apply to all markets. I use it for index futures and currency trading. Good luck with your trading.
thank you tradester for the advice, i will check it out.
  • #5
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:11pm Mar 11, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting MarketPips
Can you post your brief description-conclusion of
what you got about EW so far.
Do you believe that new wave started even if 1 pip breakout?
All i can say is that I am still a amatuer student when it comes to using elliott wave. but beware, because this form of analysis requires alot of intuition, and only experience could make you become better at using the analysis. sometimes a wave could be counted with all the guidelines and rules fitting only to find that the wave is a wrong count. feel is really important, and it is a very discretionary form of analysis. stick with the basic 5 and 3s, and any wave counts should not be "forced", but easily identifiable on a chart.
  • #6
  • Mar 12, 2010 10:33am Mar 12, 2010 10:33am
I studied EW too.
I count, for example, that consolidation may be counted as 2 corrections.
And then the trend continues, especially when market has high volatility.
What do you think on this point?
  • #7
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:06am Mar 13, 2010 11:06am
Quoting MarketPips
I studied EW too.
I count, for example, that consolidation may be counted as 2 corrections.
And then the trend continues, especially when market has high volatility.
What do you think on this point?
when you are counting impulse wave, there is no need to count wave 1, wave 2 etc. just count the number of waves, if you have 5, 9, 13, etc. you know one impulse wave might be finishing, and there is a chance for a big reversal. if you are counting 7 waves in one direction, doesn't matter which impulse wave is extending, all you need to know is that the impulse wave is not finished.

when counting correction, stick with ABC, and when a 4th wave is sideway action, there is no need to count which one is A or flat B etc. most correction becomes apparent after the correction is complete. all you need is the big picture. and let price action tell you when the sideway action might be finishing etc.

here is an euro chart for recently. notice that the proposed 4th wave is horiztonal action, typical 4th tendency. without going into the nitty gritty, isee that price is at a resisitence, and a fib level. this tells me that i should be watching the price carefully, and look for reversal patterns. maybe a pin bar or shooting star.

please click on the chart so you can see more clearly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro D1 Mar12.jpg Size: 127 KB
  • #8
  • Mar 13, 2010 5:02pm Mar 13, 2010 5:02pm
Thanks for sharing.
  • #9
  • Mar 13, 2010 5:36pm Mar 13, 2010 5:36pm
I believe that Fibonacci can be used with EW.
The normal way of fibonacci is 61% retracement and 161% extension.
And this is when volatility is average. This numbers are distorted
if too high volatility. But when these two analysis are combined,
they are of a great help.
  • #10
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:09pm Mar 15, 2010 1:09pm
any other suggestions for market analysis methods?
  • #11
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:36pm Mar 15, 2010 2:36pm
One guy told once that the more indicators you use, the more successful you are.
  • #12
  • Last Post: Mar 15, 2010 3:01pm Mar 15, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting halfstep
any other suggestions for market analysis methods?
Study what moves the market and what is the market structure. Never forget that most analysis methods are designed for centralized markets (NYSE for example) and FOREX is an OTC marketplace. In combination with a smart head, enough patience and a pair of cojones you will become what you want to be. Or not. The other read I recommend is Sun Tzi's "Art of War". Check my signature for additional guidance.
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