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MTF Trend-Pullback Trading

  • #61
  • Mar 7, 2010 6:45pm Mar 7, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting stunna29
Hey Jesper,can you show me where you enter on this trade?..nice system BTW
Please refer to post #49 for charts and entry time; I sold Friday at 1.35767:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...0&postcount=49

Jesper
  • #62
  • Mar 9, 2010 12:04am Mar 9, 2010 12:04am
Hi Jesper,

I wanted to ask you what your take on pivots is. Do you look at them only if you are near them, or are they always considered? What are some of the things you look for?

Thanks for your efforts.
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.
  • #63
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:29am Mar 9, 2010 2:29am
Quoting Bwana
Hi Jesper,

I wanted to ask you what your take on pivots is. Do you look at them only if you are near them, or are they always considered? What are some of the things you look for?

Thanks for your efforts.
Hi,

I don't use pivots. The levels drawn on the chart depend on your broker's time-zone, the pivot method used, and apparently the indicator itself. So I find them totally artificial. Same in my book with Fibonacci retracements or extensions -- there is too much subjectivity in picking highs and lows when drawing them to assume that those are levels most market players are looking at. I also don't rely on diagonal support or resistance lines for the same reason -- I tend to fit them to where I want them. So I've come back time and again experimenting with pivots, Fibonacci etc., but I can't make them work for me.

The only thing I trust are plain and simple horizontal support and resistance lines on H1 and up. I can't really say exactly what I'm looking for, but I'm watching them.

I look at the Gann indicator which I use for the system here not as objective support or resistance, but simply as confirmation that the direction of price action has visibly changed.

Jesper
  • #64
  • Mar 9, 2010 7:58pm Mar 9, 2010 7:58pm
The EURUSD short of last week (post #49) is still alive but not doing too well. It dipped briefly into profit yesterday and is now again showing a loss of about 20 pips.

Other trades I have open but which are not posted here are a long on AUDUSD (H1/M5, entered yesterday, stop already trailed to break-even); this one is doing well and may provide some chances to add on, so I wish I had posted it here from the start for demonstration purposes.

I just went short on GBPUSD H1/M5 (the quicker timeframe pairing works better in the somewhat ranging markets of recent days). H1 trend gave me a fresh Heikin-Ashi and Gann signal, which was strongly confirmed by MACD crossing back under the 0 line. I sold at 1.4972, stop level to watch is 1.5030 above recent H1 highs as shown by Gann and Bollinger Bands.

Jesper

Charts are H1 trend at time of entry, M5 entry chart at time of entry, finally the M5 exit template showing point of entry (on the candle to the right of the green vertical line, vertical line is the price).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #65
  • Mar 10, 2010 1:29am Mar 10, 2010 1:29am
Quoting jesperweber
[...]

I just went short on GBPUSD H1/M5 (the quicker timeframe pairing works better in the somewhat ranging markets of recent days). H1 trend gave me a fresh Heikin-Ashi and Gann signal, which was strongly confirmed by MACD crossing back under the...
I trailed my stop to 1.4965 (see highlighted Gann dot on chart). If things go well, I should be able to add to the position when MACD turns red again.

Jesper
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #66
  • Mar 10, 2010 1:43am Mar 10, 2010 1:43am
Quoting jesperweber
I trailed my stop to 1.4965 (see highlighted Gann dot on chart). If things go well, I should be able to add to the position when MACD turns red again.

Jesper
Trailed further to 1.4950 (highlighted)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #67
  • Mar 10, 2010 1:53am Mar 10, 2010 1:53am
Quoting jesperweber
Trailed further to 1.4950 (highlighted)
Added to the short position at 1.49122 with a tight stop at 1.4945 (three Gann dots back); add-on entry is on the right-most candle of the attached chart, when MACD reverted to red. Stop of original position is also at 1.4945 now. If they go down, they go down together (either way ).

Jesper
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #68
  • Mar 10, 2010 2:04am Mar 10, 2010 2:04am
Quoting jesperweber
Added to the short position at 1.49122 with a tight stop at 1.4945 (three Gann dots back); add-on entry is on the right-most candle of the attached chart, when MACD reverted to red. Stop of original position is also at 1.4945 now. If they go down, they go down together (either way ).

Jesper
Stop is now at 1.4935.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #69
  • Mar 10, 2010 2:56am Mar 10, 2010 2:56am
Quoting jesperweber
Stop is now at 1.4935.
My short GBPUSD positions were stopped out at 1.4935. My first trade was two lots, so [1.49721 - 1.49350 = +37.1 pips; 2 lots makes +74.2 pips], the second was one lot, so [1.49122 - 1.49350 = -22.8 pips]. Netto the trade was +51.4 pips on a single lot.

Jesper
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #70
  • Mar 12, 2010 6:46pm Mar 12, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting jesperweber
Bit risky with NFP coming up later today, but still believing in the fundamentals behind the trade (spell G-R-E-E-C-E).

  1. [...]

Knock on wood.

Jesper

Gee, what a sucker I bet nobody was thinking about this trade anymore (entered in post #49, previous page of this thread), but mum taught me to be honest, so here is the final-RIP-update.

After a week, my EURUSD trade got stopped out. It never showed a good-enough profit to close it, but seemed to start performing a couple of times so I left it alone. Not for the better, it turns out.

I don't have my charts right now as the markets are closed and they are doing some maintenance, and there is not much worth looking at anyways. This was a badly managed trade, my only "excuse" is that I used a very small position size so it didn't hurt my account equity.

Enjoy your weekend!

Jesper
  • #71
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:51pm Mar 13, 2010 8:51pm
Quoting jesperweber
My short GBPUSD positions were stopped out at 1.4935. My first trade was two lots, so [1.49721 - 1.49350 = +37.1 pips; 2 lots makes +74.2 pips],

Jesper
hello Jesper,
with due respect, i differ from the way u calculated ur earning pips in the post.

1.49721 - 1.49350 = 37.1 pips, irrelevant of the number of lots u trade with.
it can b quite a misleading info if we multiply our lot size with the price movement per pip.

suppose we trade with 100 lots..
1.49721-1.49350 = 37.1 x 100 = 3710 pips . (not true)

or if we place a trade with 0.1 lots..
1.49721-1.49350= 37.1 x .1 =3.71 pips. (false)

as we c, none of the above can b true.
any1 who will read 1.49721-1.49350 wud end up calculating .0037.1 or 37.1 pips.


well, keep it up with good work.. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
and yeh,
Honesty is the Best policy. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

Khaira.
  • #72
  • Mar 14, 2010 8:14pm Mar 14, 2010 8:14pm
Quoting King Singh
hello Jesper,
with due respect, i differ from the way u calculated ur earning pips in the post.

1.49721 - 1.49350 = 37.1 pips, irrelevant of the number of lots u trade with.
it can b quite a misleading info if we multiply our lot size with the price movement per pip.

suppose we trade with 100 lots..
1.49721-1.49350 = 37.1 x 100 = 3710 pips . (not true)

or if we place a trade with 0.1 lots..
1.49721-1.49350= 37.1 x .1 =3.71 pips. (false)

as we c, none of the above can b true.
any1 who will read 1.49721-1.49350 wud end up calculating...
This thread not being a trading journal I was not trying to post trading results to have them scrutinized. I just showed the pip movement on my initial and add-on positions -- as the gross value in pips. For reference I then in a second step calculated the net profit this particular trade made for me.

As I am not selling a system or signals or anything else, I would have no interest whatsoever in tweaking results in my favor (and, frankly, do not see what your motivation for lecturing me on honesty is, but never mind).
  • #73
  • Mar 16, 2010 8:53am Mar 16, 2010 8:53am
I count this way: "pips per order". This way shows the history file, too.

The rest is only MM and RM.

crackjack
  • #74
  • Mar 16, 2010 8:57am Mar 16, 2010 8:57am
so if you make 1 EURUSD 1.3700 - 1.3724 = 24 pips with 1 lot.

at the same time you trade 5 x orders à EURUSD 1.3700-1.3724 = 24 x 5 pips with 0.2 Lot.

add all together makes: 24 + 24 + 24 + 24 + 24 + 24 .

this shows the history file, too.

The rest is MM and RM again.

crackjack
  • #75
  • Edited 9:33pm Mar 17, 2010 9:32pm | Edited 9:33pm
Hello all,

Could someone elaborate what this is please? what are your experiences with it and how does it come to be?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 87 KB
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.
  • #76
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:46pm Mar 17, 2010 9:46pm
Quoting Bwana
Hello all,

Could someone elaborate what this is please? what are your experiences with it and how does it come to be?
Is this related to MTF trading? Just from the attached image I almost thought you might have intended this for a different thread...
  • #77
  • Mar 18, 2010 1:31am Mar 18, 2010 1:31am
Quoting Bwana
Hello all,

Could someone elaborate what this is please? what are your experiences with it and how does it come to be?
If you mean that huge doji candle then it usually means - do not trade or be careful at least.
  • #78
  • Edited 8:57am Apr 20, 2010 8:25am | Edited 8:57am
I know this is not meant to be a journal
but if you could post some of your
recent trades, it might really help
people with this method.

I personally greatly prefer the 1hr/5min because
I simply refuse to trade big stops and second
it should work in more markets ie ranging
and trending not just the stronger
trends you need for a 4 hr signal to
keep trending.

Also I think the 1hr/5min success ratio
should be as high or higher over time
especially if you are willing to take
10 pips when the market shows thats all
it wants to give right then and close out
and look for a new trade instead of hold hard
targets the market may not be ready to shoot
for yet...ie more flexible fluid targets for each
trade.

Brian

Quoting jesperweber
Hi Ed,

Welcome to the thread! Feels good to see the first post by somebody joining So let's hope that many more a coming to form a good group. Please never hold back with feedback, questions and suggestions just because you might think you are still learning. Any input will help the group deepen our understanding and to become better at trading.

Jesper
  • #79
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:56am Apr 20, 2010 8:56am
I have asked this before but.. does anyone have a good
stochastic level cross alert? Not an alert when the
stochastic lines cross, got that... but an alert
for when the stochastic crosses 25/75 or 50...
where you can enter the alert level(s)?

If not...can someone help put that together..
really helpful for 5 min entries!

Brian
  • #80
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:59am Apr 20, 2010 8:59am
Quoting golden1
I know this is not meant to be a journal
but if you could post some of your
recent trades, it might really help
people with this method.

I personally greatly prefer the 1hr/5min because
I simply refuse to trade big stops andsecond
it should work in more markets ie ranging
and trending not just the stronger
trends you need for a 4 hr signal to
keep trending.

Also I think the 1hr/5min success ratio
should be as high or higher over time
especially if you are willing to take
10 pips when the market shows thats all
it wants to give right then and...
Hi Brian,

Wow, I honestly felt honored to see that somebody is still checking in and cared to post! I kind of got the feeling that the method had been described and (hopefully) understood, not needing further discussion.

I apologize for not being able to show recent trades -- this method is one of a couple of approaches I use; MTF trading is the constant, but due to recent time constraints I was really looking more for quick hits than trades that need nurturing. So pretty much like you said in your post, I was scalping the M5 (and sometimes M1) charts without being to picky about perfect setups on the longer timeframes, just going with the overall flow. M1 is usually too fast to take screenshots...

Without going into a lot of detail, I have a pretty good success ratio with entries on USDJPY M1 charts, using fixed 10 pips targets and 20 pips stop-losses. Leaves a lot on the table, but is fairly high probability when a good entry presents itself in the direction of the hourly trend.

Cheers!
Jesper
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