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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,101
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:31pm Mar 11, 2010 6:31pm
Attached Image
  • #3,102
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:12pm Mar 11, 2010 7:12pm
good evening,
The numbers keep coming out good for Canada. Domestic spending is up from a low interest rate environment and the strong currency helps consumption.
The capacity utilization #s today show that there remains a lot of unused productive entities available. The trade #s were skewed by commodities.

The housing has been good which might indicate job availability is there.
Lot of bullish sentiment towards a stronger Cad is built into the price.
If fridays employment is better then expected the push towards parity is bound to occur. If it is weak from the strength of the currency then may get that much anticipated close above 1.03
  • #3,103
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:33pm Mar 11, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting foto
good evening,
The numbers keep coming out good for Canada. Domestic spending is up from a low interest rate environment and the strong currency helps consumption.
The capacity utilization #s today show that there remains a lot of unused productive entities available. The trade #s were skewed by commodities.

The housing has been good which might indicate job availability is there.
Lot of bullish sentiment towards a stronger Cad is built into the price.
If fridays employment is better then expected the push towards parity is bound to occur. If...
Evening FOTO: The US news might be factored into the traders' decisions tomorrow as well.

Risk-aversion or carry trade? I shall stay out until the dust settles ( as mentioned prior to last week's NFP).

My interest is the release of the COT to see how the comms decided.

To all; whether bull or bear positioning - may the PIPs be with you.
  • #3,104
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:36pm Mar 11, 2010 7:36pm
i simply can't pass up a buying opportunity on a triple bottom- also goes with my bullish usd view. also, an upside down h&s may be forming on 1HR, with neckline around 1.0320
  • #3,105
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:01pm Mar 11, 2010 8:01pm
Looks like it ... SnH ... forming
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd-cad.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #3,106
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:14pm Mar 11, 2010 8:14pm
Quoting foto
good evening,
The numbers keep coming out good for Canada....
Anothr sign of protectionism ? Looks like the US is offering other countries more money than Canada is in order to keep jobs up here.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1497544/

Yeah...our government is doing a great job....NOT !
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,107
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:41pm Mar 11, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting Clouds
i simply can't pass up a buying opportunity on a triple bottom- also goes with my bullish usd view. also, an upside down h&s may be forming on 1HR, with neckline around 1.0320
I'm with you on this one, especially with the bullish USD... I have a feeling the USD can gain some real good strength against the commodity currencies soon; we just need that overall US stock market correction though.

The 1150 close on the S&P with financial stocks rallying has me a worried this bull market rally may keep pushing higher... but it's also a double top on the S&P, which can finally give us the reversal... I'm just going to slowly add to my long USD position for the time being if need be and try to catch a few small trades short USD if need be in the meantime so the account doesn't wither away too quickly lol.
  • #3,108
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:41pm Mar 11, 2010 8:41pm
Heh Duce,
Will make a quick post then got to get some sleep.
I'm with you. The jokers that run our Fed shirked their duty before the crisis. They now shirk their duty afterwards by devaluing the USD intentionaly under the guise of Keynesian economics.
The US is now engaged in throwing its own garbage into everyone elses backyard.
As an American I apologize to you for what is going on. That does not make it better but be assured the groundswell is gaining in America to hold these jerks accountable in November.
People are absolutely livid here in the States. Don't believe the whitewash in the controled press.
The bumper stickers for King O are not to be seen anymore. Thats the bumper sticker poll.
  • #3,109
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:56pm Mar 11, 2010 8:56pm
I don't want to trivialize the global economic recession, nor do I know whether the greenback will gain strength or continue to drop in the coming days, weeks, months, but WHY would the US government want a strong or rebounding USD? They don't and they are showing us that they are quite content with a week dollar. I think I see the big picture, and it will take years for the US to recover, but make no mistake, they are in recovery mode. If the US is the heart of the economic world, and I think they are, they are showing us that they have no trouble amputating a finger or two (Canada) or maybe even a limb (China / Europe) in order to save the whole. They remind me of this....

Inserted Video


We can rebuild. We have the technology. Bigger. Faster. Stronger.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,110
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:21am Mar 12, 2010 12:21am
nice support line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily_120310.png Size: 64 KB
  • #3,111
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:15am Mar 12, 2010 5:15am
Quoting DonDoggy
nice support line
I don't like trading this pair- it is such a pig to me-----that being said it looks like they are waiting for some numbers today and i bet they will wing it north quite a bit----- just my opinion of course-
  • #3,112
  • Mar 12, 2010 7:02am Mar 12, 2010 7:02am
Well at least the Euro/Cad shorts are performing. Don't know how Canadian economy will do with a strong Cad, but that appears to be what will happen.
  • #3,113
  • Mar 12, 2010 8:24am Mar 12, 2010 8:24am
I mean this in the most respectful way...but what is it about that chart that says buy?
Cheers
CanuckCT


Quoting DonDoggy
nice support line
  • #3,114
  • Mar 12, 2010 9:14am Mar 12, 2010 9:14am
No love fest for the Euro, which is suprising. All the macho talk out of Germany does not heal the wounds of division.
The South may exit the Union as they are being offered no alternative and a tongue lashing to boot.

Days not over yet though. Still have the typical USD bear attack this afternoon to most probably have to deal with.

I still prefer trading end of day data, as by the end of the day everyone has spoken in the market. This way intraday volatility is not confused with trend. I prefer trading market direction.
To all the short term traders God bless.
  • #3,115
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:40am Mar 12, 2010 11:40am
shorted the GBP/USD on the rise above and then break of the 152.00 level. Short at 151.87
Equities are not rallying with the retail numbers
AUD/USD is exhibiting profit taking.
USD Index is at support.

Have a good weekend
  • #3,116
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:02pm Mar 12, 2010 12:02pm
I'm going out on a limb here and saying we'll see 1.05 before parity! I think too many people were long on that triple bottom and shooting under 1.02 took a lot of them out... now that it seems parity is in the cards and the obvious play would be short USD/CAD, I think we shoot back up and we'll see that the 1.02 was a false breakout.

Just a gut feeling... but who knows, oil may keep shooting upwards, which will help the CAD gain ground and the overall US stock markets may keep continuing to climb and therefore cause the USD to weaken.
  • #3,117
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:15pm Mar 12, 2010 12:15pm
The region between 1.02 and 1.03 did offer up some resistance, but no serious bounce this time. I entered short on the break below 1.02, and now have stop set to keep a hair of profit above break even.

I'm looking for possible support points, and can not find anything since parity, which was seen in July 08. I'm thinking of taking profits at 1.01, and am curious if anyone else has price points they'd like to share?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,118
  • Mar 12, 2010 6:33pm Mar 12, 2010 6:33pm
Quoting thadakman
I'm going out on a limb here and saying we'll see 1.05 before parity! I think too many people were long on that triple bottom and shooting under 1.02 took a lot of them out... now that it seems parity is in the cards and the obvious play would be short USD/CAD, I think we shoot back up and we'll see that the 1.02 was a false breakout.

Just a gut feeling... but who knows, oil may keep shooting upwards, which will help the CAD gain ground and the overall US stock markets may keep continuing to climb and therefore cause the USD to weaken.
Yo Thad: no longer a triple bottom.
Could see 05 afore parity. Doesn't matter to me as I trade any way the fx winds blow.

I used to try to determine what the traders were thinking. Realized that I was inadequate in that task. So I just further scrutinize the indicators
for hints to possible movement.
I (finally) have reduced my emotion factor in making trade decisions.
I do not NEED to be right in this thread - I only NEED to be correct when a trade goes to +ve pips.
I agree that a retrace is a possibility. Will it retrace before parity-maybe/maybe not.
Will cad pair go lower than parity & by how much? The "loonietek's 3 D's"

Don't know
Don't care
Don't lock into an emotional trade in order to prove that you are right!

CAD is top performing currency re: USD ( compared to OZ, Kiwi; Euro, GBP). If that begins to change, then re-think strategy.

Good pipping
  • #3,119
  • Mar 12, 2010 6:59pm Mar 12, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting Scarecru

I (finally) have reduced my emotion factor in making trade decisions.
I do not NEED to be right in this thread - I only NEED to be correct when a trade goes to +ve pips.

Will cad pair go lower than parity & by how much? The "loonietek's 3 D's"

Don't know
Don't care
Don't lock into an emotional trade in order to prove that you are right!

CAD is top performing currency re: USD ( compared to OZ, Kiwi; Euro, GBP). If that begins to change, then re-think strategy.

Good pipping
Great job on reducing the emotional factor involved in trading... I'm still working on it! lol... 2 of the more recent books that I've read, "Trading in the Zone" and "Trading with your gut" have been very helpful... and it's very true that it shouldn't matter whether or not a trader is right or wrong on a trade, but instead how much a trader makes and loses on a trade, that's where the focus needs to be.

With that said, I agree CAD is a top performing currency and their economy seems very strong right now; but my overall trade plan is to catch this overall market correction from the beginning and slowly scale in on the long USD side until it happens... I believe when the move comes it'll come quick and in my opinion the CAD and AUD have a lot farther to fall than some of the other currencies, which have already fallen.

But after this happens, I'm definitely going long AUD an CAD!

Good luck in your trading.
  • #3,120
  • Mar 12, 2010 7:01pm Mar 12, 2010 7:01pm
Recent information has shown that there is a SERIOUS decline in the
population of the Loonie Bear.

Environmentalists suggest that one of the main reasons may be due to
the invasion of usbulls into the fxecosystem.

If you should wish the Loonie Bear to survive, it is suggested that a truly attractive female be provided for procreation ( & thus ensuring survival of this species).
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