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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #201
  • Mar 12, 2010 2:51am Mar 12, 2010 2:51am
Speaking of longer term trades. Has anybody else been looking at nzdusd? I wouldn't be surprised to see .5 by Christmas. Just a thought. With a little patience, leverage, and compunding just a few times you could be sitting real nice by the time you're drinking egg nog again. Just a thought.
  • #202
  • Mar 12, 2010 3:04am Mar 12, 2010 3:04am
Quoting Scotty B
Really though, when you start frying your retnas/brain/life/family for those 30 pips a day, it's not worth it. Just ride the trends so you can free yourself to go out and work on your rental properties, reasearch other investments, get out of the house ect; hence the purpose of this thread.

Thank you everyone for thoughtfully participating here.

Scotty
I think a more long term approach is definitely the way to go once you have a good capital base. From the sound of your posts things are starting to fall together for you Scotty and that's definitely a good feeling I'm sure . I think for me I'm far away from approaching the market using longer term trades.

For me at least I'm going to have to start with the daytrading because I think its easier to see cause and effect from that perspective in regards to orderflow.
  • #203
  • Mar 12, 2010 3:09am Mar 12, 2010 3:09am
Scotty and Darkstar, you guys clearly know what you're doing and you're posting some of the best stuff I've seen on this site, thanks for sharing and hopefully we can all get to the major leagues like you guys.

Just wanted to say that.
  • #204
  • Mar 12, 2010 3:46am Mar 12, 2010 3:46am
Quoting Tenshi28
Scotty and Darkstar, you guys clearly know what you're doing and you're posting some of the best stuff I've seen on this site, thanks for sharing and hopefully we can all get to the major leagues like you guys.

Just wanted to say that.

Thanks man, but I'm far from the majors. I'm just working on getting somewhere meaningful. I'd agree with you about Darkstar though.

-----

Deusomega..You don't need to have a huge capital base to trade longer term. Trading intraday will most likely end very badly anyways. Very few can pull off the intraday stuff, but the good news is that you don't need to. The best thing about being a day trader is the title. To me, the term 'day trader' is kind of ironic because that's literally what you are doing to yourself and your time. So you want to pay the spread over and over and over. At least your broker will be happy because you won't have enough time to be. Just my 2 cents.

Consider this again though. Say NZD does make it to the .5 level. The value of NZD will depreciate 28.5%. If you can thoughtfully and carefully enter the market @ 20:1 leverage, even if it takes you a few tries, that 28.5% is now 570% gain on your money. Do the math, play with the numbers. How many traders do you know who pulled that kind of gain from the market by frying their eyes and screwing up the old sciatic nerve? That example is with only one good position. Add to the position once or twice along the way and the numbers get even more ridiculous.
  • #205
  • Mar 12, 2010 4:12am Mar 12, 2010 4:12am
Quoting Scotty B
[color=black][font=Verdana]Deusomega..You don't need to have a huge capital base to trade longer term. Trading intraday will most likely end very badly anyways. Very few can pull off the intraday stuff, but the good news is that you don't need to. The best thing about being a day trader is the title. To me, the term 'day trader' is kind of ironic because that's literally what you are doing to yourself and your time. So you want to pay the spread over and over and over. At least your broker will be happy because you won't have enough time to be....
So simple and so true, yet so hard to follow. I find myself overtrading over and over again, and even when doing it succesfully, it really is not the way to be making large profits in the long term.

It takes lots of time and experience to really let it soak in, but in this case, less is more.
  • #206
  • Mar 12, 2010 4:15am Mar 12, 2010 4:15am
Quoting Darkstar
Eff it, 2m Eur/usd buy at 1.3673, tp at 1.4200, no stop. I'll put my money where my mouth is. Wish me luck...
I don't know about luck, but your entry probably had a 10 pip draw down before going your way?
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #207
  • Edited 8:57am Mar 12, 2010 7:34am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting LasVahGoose
I don't know about luck, but your entry probably had a 10 pip draw down before going your way?
Possibly luck, but there has to be some solid information more than 'feel' and fundamentals if it's not. Interested to hear what the average loss compared to average win is for is for this 'type' of trade, if a type exists.

EDIT: Average Drawn-down is an interesting stat as well.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #208
  • Mar 12, 2010 9:16am Mar 12, 2010 9:16am
According to the price action on the EURUSD H4 chart his entry price is nothing more than a close of a candle which showed that the bears don't have enough power to push the prices down. For the moment 1.3800 has been completely rejected and my opinion as an european is that the problems of Europe are not over at all so 1.4200 seems a fantastical target.
  • #209
  • Mar 12, 2010 9:31am Mar 12, 2010 9:31am
Quoting Sauron
According to the price action on the EURUSD H4 chart his entry price is nothing more than a close of a candle which showed that the bears don't have enough power to push the prices down. For the moment 1.3800 has been completely rejected and my opinion as an european is that the problems of Europe are not over at all so 1.4200 seems a fantastical target.
Ahh, so it's the close of the 4hr candle told him that? It sucks to be a GMT trader, missing out on these wonderful trades.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #210
  • Mar 12, 2010 9:53am Mar 12, 2010 9:53am
LOL... or maybe it could just be that I was talking up a euro long and threw a trade on to make my point. I don't even know what the candle looked like when I put it on.
  • #211
  • Mar 12, 2010 10:00am Mar 12, 2010 10:00am
Quoting Sauron
According to the price action on the EURUSD H4 chart his entry price is nothing more than a close of a candle which showed that the bears don't have enough power to push the prices down. For the moment 1.3800 has been completely rejected and my opinion as an european is that the problems of Europe are not over at all so 1.4200 seems a fantastical target.
Well for one on the subject of candles... Nison and Pring both state that price action patterns alone should never dictate whether we take a trade or not. So even from a candlestick trader point of view your justification is weak.
  • #212
  • Mar 12, 2010 10:17am Mar 12, 2010 10:17am
Quoting t2l&l2t
I wish darkstar would write a book!
I didn't want to comment until I talked to twee about the rules, but he's either slacking or ignoring me. Yeah as has been pointed out, I'm contemplating doing just that. If you have feedback on the subject I would interested in hearing your thoughts. There is a form on my website where you can submit them.

PS- if anyone knows the current rules on posting links here at FF, I would appreciate the info...
  • #213
  • Mar 12, 2010 10:25am Mar 12, 2010 10:25am
Quoting Darkstar
I didn't want to comment until I talked to twee about the rules, but he's either slacking or ignoring me. Yeah as has been pointed out, I'm contemplating doing just that. If you have feedback on the subject I would interested in hearing your thoughts. There is a form on my website where you can submit them.

PS- if anyone knows the current rules on posting links here at FF, I would appreciate the info...
Reference: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ks#post1947960

Summary: Links are fine as long as they don't violate Rule #3:

Rule #3:
Commercial agendas tend to compromise the integrity of forum discussions and are therefore not permitted. If you make money by servicing Forex traders in any way, shape, or form, or have any commercial agenda whatsoever, you are NOT permitted to post in the forums regardless of whether your posts are promotional or not.

Members with less than 100 posts should refrain from asking about or discussing commercial Forex products, services, or websites. This includes both positive AND negative discussions. A new member discussing or asking for opinions about a commercial Forex venture is the first warning sign of a hidden agenda. Without a posting history, it's hard to determine your credibility, so your post may be mistaken as promotional. If your post or thread is moved (to the Recycle Bin) it's most likely because it was suspected as spam. Please don't take this personally as the Site Managers deal with a high volume of spam and don't have time to thoroughly investigate every instance. Once you develop a track record on the forums it'll be easy to see that you have no hidden agenda and you'll be free to join discussions related to products, services, and websites.

An exception to this rule is made for FF Advertisers.
  • #214
  • Mar 12, 2010 10:27am Mar 12, 2010 10:27am
Quoting Deusomega
For me at least I'm going to have to start with the daytrading because I think its easier to see cause and effect from that perspective in regards to orderflow.
For anyone who is trying to parse my "feel" tangent, this is a critical component. I don't think you can get any real feel from the market unless you passionately look at a ton of charts. The only way to get that done in any resonable amount of time is to daytrade. After 2-3 years of staring at charts with money in the market every day, you build that subconscious map of how things tend to play out.

I had no idea the euro was gonna pop 100+ pips within a few hours of taking the trade, but I DID see that pattern before and knew at some point in the near future it was going up. I may have gotten lucky on the news but the eventual profitability of that trade will come down to experience.
  • #215
  • Mar 12, 2010 10:31am Mar 12, 2010 10:31am
Quoting Scotty B
Speaking of longer term trades. Has anybody else been looking at nzdusd? I wouldn't be surprised to see .5 by Christmas. Just a thought. With a little patience, leverage, and compunding just a few times you could be sitting real nice by the time you're drinking egg nog again. Just a thought.
It's starting to curve, but thats one nasty looking chart. Could go either way so I'm gonna stick with "no comment".
  • #216
  • Mar 12, 2010 10:35am Mar 12, 2010 10:35am
Quoting LasVahGoose
I don't know about luck, but your entry probably had a 10 pip draw down before going your way?

11 pip
  • #217
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:04am Mar 12, 2010 11:04am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Possibly luck, but there has to be some solid information more than 'feel' and fundamentals if it's not. Interested to hear what the average loss compared to average win is for is for this 'type' of trade, if a type exists.

EDIT: Average Drawn-down is an interesting stat as well.
As I pointed out earlier I can't think of a single trade I've lost in the last year. Thats a bit misleading though because I just don't take losses. We would be getting into some really advanced trade management concepts so I don't think I want to get into it here, but I frequently average down.

Looking at my average win and max unrealized drawdown would be irrelivant because I run high leverage. The risk adjusted return is over 5:1 though.
  • #218
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:08am Mar 12, 2010 11:08am
Quoting Darkstar
As I pointed out earlier I can't think of a single trade I've lost in the last year. Thats a bit misleading though because I just don't take losses. We would be getting into some really advanced trade management concepts so I don't think I want to get into it here, but I frequently average down.

Looking at my average win and max unrealized drawdown would be irrelivant because I run high leverage. The risk adjusted return is over 5:1 though.
I hate you haha jk It's so refreshing to see what IS possible rather than all the naysayers. It's just a matter of how driven one is.

I've read that

1:1 represents "good"
2:1 represents "very good"
3:1 and above represents "outstanding"

According to sharpe ratio ratings.
  • #219
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:13am Mar 12, 2010 11:13am
Quote
As I pointed out earlier I can't think of a single trade I've lost in the last year. Thats a bit misleading though because I just don't take losses. We would be getting into some really advanced trade management concepts so I don't think I want to get into it here, but I frequently average down.

Add the bold above to the list of recommended topics I submitted on your site earlier. The more you speak, the more complicated and discretionary you paint the picture of orderflow trading to be.

Quote
Looking at my average win and max unrealized drawdown would be irrelivant because I run high leverage. The risk adjusted return is over 5:1 though

Not really. I would have made a comparison between the two (average win and average DD) to gauge the kind of risk/return you were working with. I'm guessing risk adjusted return is a variation on that, not sure about the calculation, I'll check it out.

Cheers, Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #220
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:24am Mar 12, 2010 11:24am
Quoting grkfx
Is it subjective because like Darkstar said orderflow trading is a mindset. Even if you are an orderflow trader you still need to mold that style of trading to fit your personality.
I don't disagree with anything in your post and I recognize that you can have a "subconscious feeling" of the market. What I'm opposed to is that "order flow" cannot be quantified. Naturally it can - it's being used heavily as input to quant models, e.g. for market making.

It also surprises me that even highly skilled traders like DS seems to confuse auto/system trading with the rubbish found in most of the "EA" section of this forum.

Anyway - an upcoming book on order flow trading sounds pretty interesting. If its written in usual Darkstar style it will really be worth a read
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