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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,901
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:22am Mar 11, 2010 8:22am
Quoting maheswara
try waiting for retracements before adding , self control / discipline is key ...
I understand you maheshwara, that's actually what I'm trying to do since after the first few(3-4) attack failures. Although sometimes this retracements turn out to be the beginning of reversals and I don't see at as a reversal untill the 1-2 rescue attempt. I tend to overstay with my rescues instead of flipping ( my rescues are the same size as the initial posiotion although I have more than enough troops to make a 3x or 10x rescue but I'm still learning so confidence is low )

Today I danced the US economic figures pretty well I faded the stop hunt above the range and exited at just below the range. I didn't have the gut to hold my shorts until the stop hunt below and then even fade it for some 10-15 pips. I tried not to be greedy
  • #13,902
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:46am Mar 11, 2010 9:46am
Happy trading day to everyone. Been a great trading day so far and time for a break, so checking on the thread to find only a few posts. I hope this is an indication that everyone is focused on trading and trading well. Perhaps the thread is becoming a location for more mature and experienced traders. Hope this pleases fti! Well, back to the grindstone!
  • #13,903
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:58am Mar 11, 2010 9:58am
Quoting GEfx
Happy trading day to everyone. Been a great trading day so far and time for a break, so checking on the thread to find only a few posts. I hope this is an indication that everyone is focused on trading and trading well. Perhaps the thread is becoming a location for more mature and experienced traders. Hope this pleases fti! Well, back to the grindstone!
Hello GEfx. Working with Maheswara's extract, practissing, walking throw the whole thread, trying to respect fti's teaching... A lot of work ....
  • #13,904
  • Mar 11, 2010 5:14pm Mar 11, 2010 5:14pm
Quoting Fana
Hello GEfx. Working with Maheswara's extract, practissing, walking throw the whole thread, trying to respect fti's teaching... A lot of work ....
hey fana,

i feel what i highlighted in red is the hardest work... thinking back to the lessons, there are a lot of essential ellements to FTI's MO. i disrespected them to suit my mindset, time restictions, capital etc.

when i have reread the thread and notes again, i see some very clear "rules" formed by his experience. not respecting these rules leaves you with 2 options: go respect Fti's teachings or find new rules.

https://www.bsp-capital.com/documents/turtlerules.pdf

this is a free (mechanical) system Fti posted early in this thread.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=427

it's for futures and not spot-forex but it has good lessons on volalitity adjusted positions.... very important in FTI MO. .... imho

i think fti way is a complete system so make sure you read "the components of a complete system"


kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #13,905
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:24pm Mar 11, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting j-pax
https://www.bsp-capital.com/documents/turtlerules.pdf

this is a free (mechanical) system Fti posted early in this thread.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=427

it's for futures and not spot-forex but it has good lessons on volalitity adjusted positions.... very important in FTI MO. .... imho

i think fti way is a complete system so make sure you read "the components of a complete system"
Just to share that in Jan 2010 issue of "Currency Trader", there is an article about using Turtle Trading System on spot FX. Here is the final conclusion of that article:

"Because the big trend moves the Turtle system relies on don’t happen frequently, traders must be prepared to weather extended drawdown periods — up to two years — before being rewarded with substantial profits. The original Turtle system didn’t perform terribly in this currency portfolio, but making a simple, unoptimized adjustment of cutting the exit threshold in half improved results notably, shrinking the drawdown and boosting profits. Further modifications may reveal additional insights."

I don't mechancially trade, and I still think fti's teaching is far more flexible.
  • #13,906
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:31pm Mar 11, 2010 8:31pm
OK, in a rare Tokyo trade for me, I shorted the GBP/$ at 1.5071 about 2.5 hours ago and am protecting 1.5066 for now. Will take trade off at 1.5021, but am running out of energy...need sleep. Hope you are all trading well and good luck tomorrow at the opens. Good night everyone.
  • #13,907
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:33pm Mar 11, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting MyTbo
Today I danced the US economic figures pretty well I faded the stop hunt above the range and exited at just below the range. I didn't have the gut to hold my shorts until the stop hunt below and then even fade it for some 10-15 pips. I tried not to be greedy
MyTbo,
Congrates on your pips on fig! But since you posted some question about rescue and attack, I would suggest another way to think about this trade.

Hourly trend was up yesterday, upside was capped but sentiment was very long eur, everybody wait for fig to crack top(it's still so today). When fig out, Swiss Private bank used the fig volatility to sell, but market absorbed him within 2 hours.

If you go short and got caught by the white bar, you have to wait the seller successfully defend his level, or wait hourly melt down, to rescue. Or, wait roof crack to kill you.

If you go long and got caught by the selling, you are with the flow, much easier to get chance to rescue or attack.

Another problem you mentioned is the retrace turning into reversal. If you consistantly attack on retrace, there's only one attack get caught by reversal at the end of trend. The money you made on the attacks along the trend should be more than the final loss on reversal.

When you worry about "retrace turning into reversal", remind yourself this question---
"Are we still going up?" --- fti
"Are we still going down?"-- fti
Take a look at hourly, if the answer is "yes", it is retrace.
  • #13,908
  • Edited 10:08pm Mar 11, 2010 9:38pm | Edited 10:08pm
along with 3 kingdoms eyes on a/u 9151 .

looking at daily time frame, areas of extra interest for e/u.
3723
3640
3556

first things first eyes on 3694-3702
  • #13,909
  • Mar 11, 2010 10:31pm Mar 11, 2010 10:31pm
Quoting GEfx
OK, in a rare Tokyo trade for me, I shorted the GBP/$ at 1.5071 about 2.5 hours ago and am protecting 1.5066 for now. Will take trade off at 1.5021, but am running out of energy...need sleep. Hope you are all trading well and good luck tomorrow at the opens. Good night everyone.
this is what I was looking at for g/u areas of extra interest.
1.5114
5043
4900
5086-88 would be my 1st attempt at rescue, of coarse depends on how 3 kingdoms are acting when in the area.

fortunately im heading the other way.
  • #13,910
  • Mar 12, 2010 2:00am Mar 12, 2010 2:00am
Quoting j-pax
hey fana,

i feel what i highlighted in red is the hardest work... thinking back to the lessons, there are a lot of essential ellements to FTI's MO. i disrespected them to suit my mindset, time restictions, capital etc.

when i have reread the thread and notes again, i see some very clear "rules"...
Hi J-Pax. Correct! This is really very important to have it all together and use it as a complex. fti is very unique in providing such completeness. In this, only a few traders (they are mostly from this gang), are like him.

Hold on man, here we dont need to bet.... Regards. Fana
  • #13,911
  • Mar 12, 2010 3:37am Mar 12, 2010 3:37am
Quoting lilpip
this is what I was looking at for g/u areas of extra interest.
1.5114
5043
4900
5086-88 would be my 1st attempt at rescue, of coarse depends on how 3 kingdoms are acting when in the area.

fortunately im heading the other way.
Hi lilpip, yea I got out of the short trade about 30 mins after my post and went to bed. I can not trade for long periods like fti, and must get some rest each night. Looking for a pull back before going long now. Good trading everyone!
  • #13,912
  • Mar 12, 2010 4:06am Mar 12, 2010 4:06am
Sentiment is turning to euro bullish lately. A couple of weeks ago everyone was talking about E$ going for 1.25 and look at it now - cable is already leading the way. Bulls smelled weakness in green money and are looking for blood. Time to dance. It's gonna get choppy, stay nimble, don't be pigs.
  • #13,913
  • Mar 12, 2010 4:18am Mar 12, 2010 4:18am
Howdy everybody, who let the Bulls out?

If you zoom out and look at the consolidation over the last few weeks, it has a rounded bottom look. Dance well everyone.

Came across this song on you tube the other day, can't get it out of my head, a very simple, yet beautiful arrangement of a hymn,

enjoy.

Inserted Video
  • #13,914
  • Mar 12, 2010 4:20am Mar 12, 2010 4:20am
On daily chart, I am targeting .4200 areas, looks like a lot of upside.....
  • #13,915
  • Mar 12, 2010 4:22am Mar 12, 2010 4:22am
Quoting auxesis
Howdy everybody, who let the Bulls out?

If you zoom out and look at the consolidation over the last few weeks, it has a rounded bottom look.
ok now I am worried, browsing through the forum...seems like most people are bull too....blah....just dance....
  • #13,916
  • Mar 12, 2010 4:28am Mar 12, 2010 4:28am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
.......just dance....
  • #13,917
  • Mar 12, 2010 4:32am Mar 12, 2010 4:32am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
ok now I am worried, browsing through the forum...seems like most people are bull too....blah....just dance....
Lol, just stating he obvious.

Even with the large eyeballs you still gotta dance it.

regards,
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  • #13,918
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:10am Mar 12, 2010 5:10am
think we r still in usd bull overall ... this kind of rally is not good enuf to turn around a trend ... off course I cld be wrong anyway , is ff really slow today ? page is opening after a minute or more ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #13,919
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:36am Mar 12, 2010 5:36am
Quoting maheswara
is ff really slow today ? page is opening after a minute or more ...
Mashes,
It's not ff's problem. I had this problem for a long time, some weeks simply couldn't open ff. After trying out all the troublshooting, I finally solved it by changing to Open DNS.

"If a DNS server becomes overloaded, it will results in XP cache unsuccessful DNS lookup attempts, and you may be unable to view some or all websites."

Upon the moment I changed to Open DNS, ff works fast and perfect.

Here's a link for Open DNS: http://www.opendns.com/
But the best is to find an Open DNS near your location.
  • #13,920
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:52am Mar 12, 2010 5:52am
Quoting imjscn
Mashes,
It's not ff's problem. I had this problem for a long time, some weeks simply couldn't open ff. After trying out all the troublshooting, I finally solved it by changing to Open DNS.

"If a DNS server becomes overloaded, it will results in XP cache unsuccessful DNS lookup attempts, and you may be unable to view some or all websites."

Upon the moment I changed to Open DNS, ff works fast and perfect.

Here's a link for Open DNS: http://www.opendns.com/
But the best is to find an Open DNS near your location.
oh I see , that makes sense ... only FF is problematic today , I streamed an anime with no problem , guess its the DNS thing... lemme read into it , will try it in the weekend , thanks
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
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