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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #218,121
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:29pm Mar 11, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting quecee5
yep the buy was at 1.020 area. . . support at 1.0245/30 test would be another entry. . .
price hasn't touch 1.020 yet, 1.0214 is the lowest since last year i think[correction since jaunary]. It looks like the comms are still net short on the CAD, so it may go a bit lower yet.

4hr chart looks to be showing a nice rounding bottom, giving me the idea we are getting ready to reverse, but of course that might be my own wishful thinking

In some sense, as it looks pretty obvious to get long on this triple bottom, Being cynical, I think they take out the longs first via a quick spike down, only then to rise. Time will tell.. I'm hold long 1.0285, 1.0238 and 1.0221... Will add on a break of 1.0320.. Stop 1.0160
  • #218,122
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:32pm Mar 11, 2010 3:32pm
Oh, I was using TD Sequential method on the daily chart for possible reversal
Last week post..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=217289

I bought on the dips and closed out on 38.6% level from last week trade setup


Now I bought again on the dips for a 61.8% level rally 139 level.





Quoting JhonMonsalve
Why do you count the red candles Rob? In your chart.
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  • #218,123
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:32pm Mar 11, 2010 3:32pm
long time members.

do you guys remmember a guy here on this website with the name of BREEZE . a hong kong monkey trader 2 years ago

wonder where is he . i dont know if he is still a monkey ,but that time he was .
  • #218,124
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:36pm Mar 11, 2010 3:36pm
Quoting crazy horse
long time members.

do you guys remmember a guy here on this website with the name of BREEZE . a hong kong monkey trader 2 years ago

wonder where is he . i dont know if he is still a monkey ,but that time he was .
I remember Breeze, he traded USD/JPY a lot. I think he might be over at the DailyFX forums still...
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,125
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:37pm Mar 11, 2010 3:37pm
The 4hr GJ chart broke the UTL and the ascending pattern looks bullish..

138 daily R3 and near the monthly PV maybe the stop before the pullback

139 been a support for weeks and now it is a strong resistance

Trade your charts..




Quoting quecee5
Yep we are on the same page. . . In order to see 139.25 we need a daily close above 136.55 and right now it looks like it was rejected on the 1st attempt this a.m. CST. . .

the daily swing suggest we may see a pullback to at least 134.30 area with a pitstop at DPP. . .

The move up is on extremely low volume and is being met with bearish divergence on the 1hr chart and relatively flat on the 4h hour chart. . .

Not sure how much longer this up move will last before we see a slap back down. . .

BTW - not expecting to see a significant...
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  • #218,126
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:39pm Mar 11, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting Cdawg
price hasn't touch 1.020 yet, 1.0214 is the lowest since last year i think[correction since jaunary]. It looks like the comms are still net short on the CAD, so it may go a bit lower yet.

4hr chart looks to be showing a nice rounding bottom, giving me the idea we are getting ready to reverse, but of course that might be my own wishful thinking

In some sense, as it looks pretty obvious to get long on this triple bottom, Being cynical, I think they take out the longs first via a quick spike down, only then to rise. Time will...
1.0211/14 was the buy point - thxs for correction - should have said 1.02 area. . . and yes it will reverse and reverse hard. . . ucad is in a nice range and has been for a couple years now. . . buying in this area for a 600 pip leg up is the way to go. . . not sure it will get any lower than the 1.02 area but anything is possible.

Accumulating slowly is the best strategy IMO. . .
  • #218,127
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:42pm Mar 11, 2010 3:42pm
From looking at charts only, it looks a great place now to start building longs.
  • #218,128
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:46pm Mar 11, 2010 3:46pm
Another 4hr chart setup

The shi-channel(green line),zig zag(yellow line) are both bullish.

The PA is above the 50ema.

The last two 4hr candles are pin bars( Reversal)

Looks bullish to me

Wait for the 136.50 for confirmation to run up..

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  • #218,129
  • Edited 4:09pm Mar 11, 2010 3:55pm | Edited 4:09pm
Quoting rgitt05
The 4hr GJ chart broke the UTL and the ascending pattern looks bullish..

138 daily R3 and near the monthly PV maybe the stop before the pullback

139 been a support for weeks and now it is a strong resistance

Trade your charts..

Not sure about those TL but looks good to me. . . But here is a simple naked chart that shows me a roadmap. . .

I used this road map for shorting all the way dn. . .
I would think it would be the same for the up moves. . .

As can be seen we would need a daily close above 136.56 and a test of that support on daily to ensure 139.25 test. . .

I guess we will see how it plays. . .

What I see now is price fluctuating right at daily R1 a failure here will retest DPP for sure and if taken down to S1 at 134.32. . . but anything is possible. . .

I'm not expecting to see a rise to and above 139.25 until later this year.
I think what we will see is ranging for the next few months until Q2-Q3 but that's just my opinion. . .

Lets see how it plays in the next couple of sessions. . .
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  • #218,130
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:09pm Mar 11, 2010 4:09pm
Daily GJ perspective

134 formed a base and 137 is the next pitstop for possible pullback before rally to the 139 UTL

IMHO

PA moves to the least resistance.



Quoting quecee5
Not sure about those TL but looks good to me. . .

Here was the road map I used for shorting all the way dn. . .
I would think it would be the same for the up move. . .

As can be seen we would need a daily close above 136.56 and a test of that support on daily to ensure 139.25 test. . .

I guess we will see how it plays. . .

What O see now is price fluctuating right at daily R1 a failure here will retest DPP for sure and if taken down to S1 at 134.32. . . but anything is possible. . .

I'm not expecting to see a rise to and...
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  • #218,131
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:15pm Mar 11, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting rgitt05
Daily GJ perspective

134 formed a base and 137 is the next pitstop for possible pullback before rally to the 139 UTL

IMHO

PA moves to the least resistance.

Bro least resistance is down. . . There is a lot of wood to chop to get to 139.25 with several pitstops on the way. .. but as you have stated we'll see how this plays shortly. . .

If we get a 4hr close above 136.56 with a test of that support I'm all in otherwise. . .
  • #218,132
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:24pm Mar 11, 2010 4:24pm
This is like Chart Heaven!
  • #218,133
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:27pm Mar 11, 2010 4:27pm
Monthly GJ perspective

Based on the DJ and the Greece bailout bias, this month might be all bullish.

UTL on the monthly is 146 zone

First pitstop 139.00 zone, 141 zone, 146 zone the UTL of the overall bearish trend.

Spring and summer is maybe consolidating before the freefall

IMHO

Wait and see..

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  • #218,134
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:32pm Mar 11, 2010 4:32pm
Government fundamentals will fk everything up..Look at last year when DJ drop to 6500 in march. '09 and GJ went up...No correlation anymore.

Government have more tricks to probably fool the market.

Government is in CONTROL!!!

There is alot of money on the sideline..

The DJ market volume is low and we will see how the government control this market once they put in place the new trading regulations..



Quoting quecee5
Bro least resistance is down. . . There is a lot of wood to chop to get to 139.25 with several pitstops on the way. .. but as you have stated we'll see how this plays shortly. . .

If we get a 4hr close above 136.56 with a test of that support I'm all in otherwise. . .
[
  • #218,135
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:52pm Mar 11, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting rgitt05
Government fundamentals will fk everything up..Look at last year when DJ drop to 6500 in march. '09 and GJ went up...No correlation anymore.

Government have more tricks to probably fool the market.

Government is in CONTROL!!!

There is alot of money on the sideline..

The DJ market volume is low and we will see how the government control this market once they put in place the new trading regulations..

BTW. when is the deadline for the new leverage , for approval ?
  • #218,136
  • Mar 11, 2010 5:16pm Mar 11, 2010 5:16pm
I am not sure when the deadline for trying to past this rule:


The proposed rules call for restricting leverage to 10:1, even for the most widely traded currency pairs.

To read the full fifty page text on the proposed rules please visit: http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/publi.../2010-456a.pdf.

Read more:

DailyFX - CFTC 10:1 Leverage Proposal - Reminder to Submit your Comments http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fxcm_ne...#ixzz0huemd5Wu


Read more: DailyFX - CFTC 10:1 Leverage Proposal - Reminder to Submit your Comments http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fxcm_ne...#ixzz0huemdzYU




http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...atestheadlines

http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-fight...ts-keep-it-up/

Quoting crazy horse
BTW. when is the deadline for the new leverage , for approval ?
[
  • #218,137
  • Mar 11, 2010 5:17pm Mar 11, 2010 5:17pm
Quoting rgitt05
Government fundamentals will fk everything up..Look at last year when DJ drop to 6500 in march. '09 and GJ went up...No correlation anymore.

Government have more tricks to probably fool the market.

Government is in CONTROL!!!

There is alot of money on the sideline..

The DJ market volume is low and we will see how the government control this market once they put in place the new trading regulations..

I Heard BOJ to intervene!?
  • #218,138
  • Mar 11, 2010 5:25pm Mar 11, 2010 5:25pm
Japan to boost forex intervention war chest

TOKYO, March 4 (Reuters) - Japan is set to raise its borrowing limit for foreign exchange intervention for the first time in six years, stirring talk the government may be signalling its willingness to intervene if needed to curb yen strength.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUST...pe=usDollarRpt

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62A14120100311




Quoting hindart
I Heard BOJ to intervene!?
[
  • #218,139
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:05pm Mar 11, 2010 6:05pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
From looking at charts only, it looks a great place now to start building longs.
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #218,140
  • Edited 10:02pm Mar 11, 2010 7:19pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting kuroro001
Rate hike from china is negative ?
If the Chinese economy is in fact overheating and that's already factored in as part of the worldwide growth today, a rate hike will temper inflation, but potentially result in less external purchasing by them, incl. commodities, high ticket items, & overall consumerism. Basically any China monetary policy tightening causes fears for the global recovery. Ironically, if inflation is allowed to occur, that also causes the yuan to rise against the US dollar. It's almost that no matter what they do, the long term result against the US dollar is not good, since their overall track is one of (significantly greater) growth against what was the strongest/fastest growing economy.


EDIT: OK, so, while I'm sure my writing above is correct (I swear I will find for you where it's documented), here is a posting from Ashraf Laidi, which may condradict. I'm unfamiliar with the correlation between UJ/GJ and USDCAD, so if it conflicts with my statement towards UJ/GJ above, make my statement irrelevant and let's hail Ashraf.

2010.03.11 18:11: USDCAD testing the Oct 2009 lows of 1.0220 as CAD soars against all major currencies, with the exception of AUD and JPY. Multi-decade highs in CAD vs. NOK and GBP. Tomorrows CAN Feb jobs report expected at 15K from 43K and the unemployment rate seen at 8.2% from 8.3%. Winter Olympics-related hiring may have helped in propping the Jan figures and could well again do so in Feb. In the event that the PBOC does raise interest rates (I see a 70% chance of a hike in the lending and deposit rates), risk appetite could be dealt a blow and USDCAD may be propped. PBOC decisions have usually been announced around 10:00-10:30 GMT. The combination of a PBOC hike and a disappointing CAN jobs report could fuel USDCAD to as high as 1.0370 and 1.0440. Another upside jobs surprise and no China hike risk driving USDCAD down to 1.0180. Once again the Dow and S&P500 unable to close at their 2010 highs, but NASDAQ faces no difficulties in breaking to new post-correction high at 2367.
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