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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #161
  • Mar 11, 2010 11:15am Mar 11, 2010 11:15am
Quoting Scotty B
I was hoping Darkstar would give some feedback as to why I was right or wrong.
One can never know if you’re right or wrong until after the fact. Looking at the euro I think shorting for any length of time is extremely dangerous. I can't tell you why but that daily chart looks like it wants to turn up. I see a 4200 print in our future.

The only thing that makes me cautious about taking the long is the crazy employees in Greece. The fate of the euro rests on Greece’s ability to maintain their austerity measures in the face of riotous union workers. If the austerity measures stand, money will flow back into Europe and we should eventually return to the November levels. If not, I don't know where (if?) there is a bottom to the fallout.

Don't take this the wrong way. This isn't any suggestion about an intrinsic value of anything. Orderflow trading is about using market mechanics to determine future prices. Oderflow 101 states that when money moves into a security the price will rise. The euro right now is a bet on whether the money that left the euro in the face of the Greek tragedy will return. That is by far the single biggest driver of the euro right now.
  • #162
  • Edited Mar 12, 2010 7:07am Mar 11, 2010 11:24am | Edited Mar 12, 2010 7:07am
Quoting Darkstar
One can never know if you’re right or wrong until after the fact. Looking at the euro I think shorting for any length of time is extremely dangerous. I can't tell you why but that daily chart looks like it wants to turn up. I see a 4200 print in our future.

[color=black][font=Verdana]The only thing that makes me cautious about taking the long is the crazy employees in Greece. The fate of the euro rests on Greece’s ability to maintain their austerity measures in the face of riotous union workers. If the...
There seems to be this fine line between orderflow trading here and fundamental trading. You say you are not trading intrinsic value, but rather the order flows into the market. Then you mention a fundamentalist issue (greece) as the cause of the order flow. Is this not just adding a step to the process? Of course money has to flow into the market for it to rise, and if a fundamentalist approach explains that movement then great. Order flow exists, but is it so precise as to even mention it in your trading style?

Being conscious of order flow is one thing, using it to trade seems to be entirely different.
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #163
  • Mar 11, 2010 11:29am Mar 11, 2010 11:29am
Quoting Scotty B
Plus, it's conveiniant to use real time
I agree, and I hate to 'toot my own horn' here, but I was right for a 30 pip bounce....to the pip

edit: lol, looked at a chart for first time in hours, just saw the up fake then the run down, ok, so I missed by 12...doesn't really matter, I didn't trade it...
  • #164
  • Edited 12:19pm Mar 11, 2010 12:05pm | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting Marsh
There seems to be this fine line between orderflow trading here and fundamental trading. You say you are not trading intrinsic value, but rather the order flows into the market. Then you mention a fundamentalist issue (greece) as the cause of the order flow. Is this not just adding a step to the process? Of course money has to flow into the market for it to rise, and if a fundamentalist approach explains that movement then great. Order flow exists, but is it so precise as to even mention it in your trading style?

[size=2]Being...
Exactly what I was thinking. The hard thing about figuring out what is "orderflow trading" and the orderflow mindset is forgetting the source of the posts that inspire this terminology.

Darkstar has a much higher understanding of fundamentals than a great majority of users on this forum. As he has previously stated he has watched cnbc and other financial sources for a very long time. So when we see posts like all you need is T+E and the orderflow mindset it focuses your attention fully on this amorphous idea of orderflow trading.

Idk I find myself feeling like I know nothing a lot of the times reading posts. Maybe thats good and will spur my growth but idk lol.

A lot of the things that have been said in this thread have been rehashed numerous times sadly without any "public" breakthrough. There have been posts in this thread saying that its a good and helpful thread. But I wonder why is it helpful? Alot of what Scotty has said is "obvious" as he has stated himself. Why is it such a great thread then? Like I said there is nothing new in this thread... lots of discussion but is it fruitful discussion? I'm not being negative here rather being a little introspective publicly. The cold hard truth is that this thread is probably more of a distraction than anything else. The cold hard truth is that this thread won't advance any of our skills as traders or advance us towards the goal of becoming "orderflow traders". Now in that statement I am referring to those of us who have read everything Osler has written and who have picked up copies of Trading and Exchanges. To new people who know nothing about orderflow etc.. well then this thread might help since it is recent but definitely not innovative.

To become orderflow traders we will either be lucky enough to find those who already trade via orderflow or struggle down the path of self discovery. That's the facts and that's the truth...
  • #165
  • Mar 11, 2010 12:26pm Mar 11, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting Marsh
Order flow exists, but is it so precise as to even mention it in your trading style?


Its a question of time. On an intraday basis stops/options/large orders are the biggest driver. On the longer timeframes macro factors play a bigger part. The mechanics don't change, but it DOES take a lot more activity to get somwhere. That means the reasons for movement have to be bigger.


Quoting Marsh
Being conscious of order flow is one thing, using it to trade seems to be entirely different.
As I said, orderflow trading is a mindset. To do it effectively you need to always be thinking about how and why money will be moving around the market.

Right now there is a lot of money waiting for any change in the Greek situation. It looks promising at the moment and that’s why you’re seeing bullish signals on the chart. There IS money flowing into the euro at present. How long it stays there is dependent on what happens in Greece.

Look at this in context. Is the euro economy doing better then the US? No. Is the threat of interest rate increases larger in the euro or the US? I would say the US. Implicit in these 2 answers is an assumption that in the future the US will perform better then the euro economy. That SHOULD be euro negative and a macro trader would be looking to short the euro on pullbacks.

As an orderflow trader I know that shit doesn’t matter in this situation. A massive amount of money escaped euro denominated assets because of the Greek tragedy. From the time it hit to now the euro is down ~1500 pips. It’s not a hard leap to assume that once the fear subsides that a good portion of that scared money will return to euro assets and there should be a nice retracement.

If you want to run an experiment to see how much different this is from the way most people think about the market, go start a thread in the systems subsection asking what is going to happen over the next month in the euro. Listen to their responses and try to glean their justification for their analysis. I think it will be a real eye opener.
  • #166
  • Mar 11, 2010 12:26pm Mar 11, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting Marsh
There seems to be this fine line between orderflow trading here and fundamental trading. You say you are not trading intrinsic value, but rather the order flows into the market. Then you mention a fundamentalist issue (greece) as the cause of the order flow. Is this not just adding a step to the process? Of course money has to flow into the market for it to rise, and if a fundamentalist approach explains that movement then great. Order flow exists, but is it so precise as to even mention it in your trading style?

[size=2]Being conscious...
Thoughtful post.

@Darkstar
To call yourself an order flow trader do you need to know where/who the orders are coming from? Any kind of trader could call themselves an orderflow trader if you consider knowledge of 'the trouble in Greece' as meaning there are 'less euro long orders entering the market' knowledge of orderflow.

This is the point that I have reached with regards to this...
Because knowledge of orders in the market isn't enough to trade on I have used fundamentals and those things reported by news services to gauge sentiment. This sentiment is supposed to act as the other half of the picture so I can judge if the orders/potential orders are large enough to make trading decisions by.

Another question. Since changing your method has your % of Break-evens/winners decreased? This info doesn't matter to me as such, I don't care about how much money you make. I suppose it's another question in disguise.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #167
  • Mar 11, 2010 12:35pm Mar 11, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting Deusomega
To become orderflow traders we will either be lucky enough to find those who already trade via orderflow or struggle down the path of self discovery. That's the facts and that's the truth...
This all comes down to how you want to trade. If you’re looking for an ea type of system that boils down to "if x do y" then you’re wasting your time with orderflow (and I would argue trading in general). I can't tell you why the euro chart says its going up. My experience tells me that I have seen that pattern before and that the result was an up move, but I can guarantee you that if you ran back tests on any or all of the bars in it that it has never happened before. So you can't quantify it. Orderflow is about feel.

There are a few simple premises to this. You can find the premises in a few of the books that have been mentioned in this thread or you can go back and glean them from my posts. You take those premises and you study the markets on a granular level looking for opportunities. They exist, I promise you, but that isn't even the point.

Every day that you spend looking and trying to find things, you gain market experience. You train your mind to see the market in a certain way. Then boom... you wake up one morning and it all makes sense. I guarantee that half of you have already reached this moment (I know Scotty has), but you just don’t buy it. You’re still stuck in the "if x then y" mentality. Let it go and just trade what you feel is going to happen. You will surprise yourself.
  • #168
  • Mar 11, 2010 12:43pm Mar 11, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting Darkstar
Orderflow is about feel.

Let it go and just trade what you feel is going to happen. You will surprise yourself.
Yup that's my point this thread is a distraction really more than anything. That's why it might "seem" helpful but in reality it's not to the people who actually take the time to read it(because usually they already know the vast majority of what will be said).

Darn I'm feeling like a grouch.. sorry everybody .
  • #169
  • Mar 11, 2010 12:44pm Mar 11, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting Darkstar
I can't tell you why the euro chart says its going up. My experience tells me that I have seen that pattern before and that the result was an up move, but I can guarantee you that if you ran back tests on any or all of the bars in it that it has never happened before. So you can't quantify it. Orderflow is about feel.


[color=black][font=Verdana]Every day that you spend looking and trying to find things, you gain market experience. You train your mind to see the...
Well, this post is a surprise. Feel the markets? Doesn't sound very objective. Maybe I understand why you say psychology is important now.

EDIT: You beat me to it Deusomega.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #170
  • Mar 11, 2010 12:48pm Mar 11, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Because knowledge of orders in the market isn't enough to trade on I have used fundamentals and those things reported by news services to gauge sentiment. This sentiment is supposed to act as the other half of the picture so I can judge if the orders/potential orders are large enough to make trading decisions by.
For me, it isn't that there isn't enough data intraday, its that I no longer want or need to spend my life sitting in front of my computer.

Nobody has ever asked me why I left FF long ago. I won't go into all the details but I will say that being a trader cost me dearly. Not in a money sense (that was great) but the rest of my life suffered. So while I CAN be a daytrader, I've found that there are some things that are far more important then money.

Which leaves us with where I'm at now. I trade for a few MINUTES a week. The euro analysis took me about 30 seconds to do (and an hour to write up on here...). I'm profitable and I'm content. More importantly, I can have a life outsde the chart.

I know you were talking about yourself, but you and I trade in an identical way. My reasons are different, but the solution is the same.

Quote
Another question. Since changing your method has your % of Break-evens/winners decreased? This info doesn't matter to me as such, I don't care about how much money you make. I suppose it's another question in disguise.

I can't remember a trade I've lost in the last year.
  • #171
  • Mar 11, 2010 12:49pm Mar 11, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting Scotty B
This makes sense to me Darkstar, but which ones? Yes, all of them or the sum of them could be the answer, but you are looking for something specific in what the market is doing or for a series of orders that are predictable to you. Sorry, I don't want to put words in your mouth, just thinking out loud here.

[color=black][font=Verdana]I had a thought a while back about stop orders and how often they affect prices, but as you have stated, most transactions on the interbank are not speculative, they are...

Hi Scotty, . The following is a quote from someone that can see the orders on the books.

If you (Scotty) is short, the operators
..." Buy ahead of your Buy stops, then sell to you."

If you (Scotty) is long, the operators..."Sell ahead of your Sell Stop, then buy from you"

Scottys physical stop or mental stop is the same as thousands of others stops below support, if long,or above resistence, if short, on the books. So if the support breaks they are "in quick" to ride the stops down as they trigger, and take profit @ your stops. "They buy your stops for their profit"
Very coldly, the person said "We win and you lose-very simple"

It works the opposite if Scotty is short.

Yes its the stop hunt game. You are invited to hunt with them. You do not have to actually see the stops. Just use your experience to get in quick at the break of Resistence or support with a Stop entry order. Take profits when you are @ the stop clusters. Do not be greedy.

If you already knew this. forgive me.
  • #172
  • Mar 11, 2010 12:55pm Mar 11, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting Deusomega
Yup that's my point this thread is a distraction really more than anything. That's why it might "seem" helpful but in reality it's not to the people who actually take the time to read it(because usually they already know the vast majority of what will be said).
Yeah I guess I've gone off on a tangent. The problem is you guys are asking me how I trade or what I think and we are at different places. I should just stick to commenting on other peoples thoughts...
  • #173
  • Mar 11, 2010 1:02pm Mar 11, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting Darkstar
Yeah I guess I've gone off on a tangent. The problem is you guys are asking me how I trade or what I think and we are at different places. I should just stick to commenting on other peoples thoughts...
On second thoughts, maybe some things can't be quantified, and feel is all we have.

We enjoy reading your posts, if you enjoy writing them then I see no problem.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #174
  • Mar 11, 2010 1:10pm Mar 11, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting Darkstar
Yeah I guess I've gone off on a tangent. The problem is you guys are asking me how I trade or what I think and we are at different places. I should just stick to commenting on other peoples thoughts...
Your posts have led me to great insights into the world of trading and have made me think.

So definitely keep posting.. I think I expressed myself ineffectively.
  • #175
  • Mar 11, 2010 1:16pm Mar 11, 2010 1:16pm
Eff it, 2m Eur/usd buy at 1.3673, tp at 1.4200, no stop. I'll put my money where my mouth is. Wish me luck...
  • #176
  • Edited 3:55pm Mar 11, 2010 1:24pm | Edited 3:55pm
Quoting Darkstar
[color=black][font=Verdana]This all comes down to how you want to trade. If you’re looking for an ea type of system that boils down to "if x do y" then you’re wasting your time with orderflow (and I would argue trading in general). I can't tell you why the euro chart says its going up. My experience tells me that I have seen that pattern before and that the result was an up move, but I can guarantee you that if you ran back tests on any or all of the bars in it that it has never happened before. So you can't quantify it. Orderflow is...
Hello,
This is my first post,but I have been around watching some time. I just have something to say here,because I feel some of you may be missing the point darkstar is saying. You have to understand that you think he is expresing himself vaguely,but there realy isn't any secret,you find it simple at the end.
Guys this is trading in its purest form.It is all about the feel,but you have to develop that through experience.Darkstar is pushing you,but you have to make the braketrough by yourself. It has to be YOU,that way it sinks in your mind and becomes a part of you.
But in addition to this there is one more thing or one more piece to the puzzle if I can put it that way that I think darkstar isn't telling but has great significance to like he says ''orderflow trading'' (I call it just ''trading'' ). TRADE MANAGEMENT!!! You have to excel at it.This is the most complex thing in trading.You may think it is just move you stop there when ''x'' happen,close when ''y'' happen,but there are whole palet of tactics that can be used and adopted to every situation.
You have to think,and think outside the box,by yourself,you will have small discoveries here and there that will sit in your head until one day...BUM!

Write this down!
Knowledge of TA + FA + knowing of big boys action (not necesserily in specific point in time) + trade management + market structure and characteristic + feel (experiance)= COMPLETE TRADER = massive $$$

good luck
  • #177
  • Mar 11, 2010 1:39pm Mar 11, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting Scotty B
[/list]I can't say that I'd want access to the interbank DOM because to be honest, all the DOMs I've seen change so fast that I have no idea what to even look for.
so good to read it. Because i was feeling lazy to simple ignore any study in this way

and about Fxnews, i gree with you. I can't see the information there showing any predicalbe result. Sometimes price reverse at the points, sometines there is a breakout, price stalls...

after the last posts i don't know if it is necessary more than OLHC charts+IFR or not.

thanks for the thread.
  • #178
  • Mar 11, 2010 1:42pm Mar 11, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting Darkstar
Eff it, 2m Eur/usd buy at 1.3673, tp at 1.4200, no stop. I'll put my money where my mouth is. Wish me luck...

Awww shit. I just got real up in this bitch.
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #179
  • Mar 11, 2010 1:46pm Mar 11, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting Darkstar
Eff it, 2m Eur/usd buy at 1.3673, tp at 1.4200, no stop. I'll put my money where my mouth is. Wish me luck...
haha Oh shit, if this gets out FF is liable to crash with all the queries for this thread!
  • #180
  • Mar 11, 2010 1:47pm Mar 11, 2010 1:47pm
Here comes the liquidity.......
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