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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #218,061
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:58am Mar 11, 2010 7:58am
It was really weird for me to see GBPJPY moving up so fast ... i think in long term we are still heading down
  • #218,062
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:03am Mar 11, 2010 8:03am
On one of my charts sorry not allow to show it because of the rules of the course I took..anyhow I have special fibs lines that move with the PA and there is a strong one right on 136.20 if we can break that I think we will go straight up for a while longer..
Dean
  • #218,063
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:06am Mar 11, 2010 8:06am
Quoting Amaze
It was really weird for me to see GBPJPY moving up so fast ... i think in long term we are still heading down
As stated 1hr divergence should play out. . . But let's see what happens.

  • #218,064
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:35am Mar 11, 2010 8:35am
Quoting quecee5
As stated 1hr divergence should play out. . . But let's see what happens.



I think if RSI can pop it's head into o/b territory on the 1hr TF.....

Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr gy.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #218,065
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:39am Mar 11, 2010 8:39am
Much inconclusive PA & H1/H4 charting ... trying a short scalp from 136.32 for 50+ pips. NY volume will start to fall off, London's closed, GU, UJ up against resistance - let's see where it goes.
  • #218,066
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:44am Mar 11, 2010 8:44am
I'm guessing we're going to see some slight up and down action and overall sideways trading for the next 12-16 hours. We had a great blast up from the 135 zone last night to put us trading well into 136 this morning. Some consolidation is definitely needed before the next leg up.

I'm not sure I'll be buying anymore during this consolidation as I was able to get some good additions during the most recent retracement. But if I hadn't I'd be looking to accumulate some longs.

I'd expect the next up leg to put us near the most recent highs in the 137.50 area. I may take some of my position off the table there and pick them up again a bit lower just like I did with this last move (lather, rinse, repeat...). I don't see us cracking those highs on the first attempt and honestly would be surprised to see us do it before next week. So if you're long and don't want to hold through the weekend... perhaps look to take them off in the 137.30-50 area.

All just opinions, other views are always welcome.
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  • #218,067
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:01am Mar 11, 2010 9:01am
Intraday Market Thought - from Ashraf Laidi

2010.03.11 09:41: Markets are increasingly tying last nights stronger than expected China inflation to rising chances of a tightening decision from the PBOC tomorrow (higher reserves requirements, rate hikes or more cutback in bank lending). Any further tightening action from China would crimp the risk trade to the benefit of the US dollar. This may help explain golds retreat towards 1100 despite the fact that the metal began falling in NY Wed afternoon trade. Readers of this website were warned 1 day before the Feb 12 increase in reserve requirements by the PBOC when the media was abuzz with Greece. Our rationale for alerting the RR hike was based on stronger than expected Jan banking loans data (and not on CPI which was softer than expected). Today, the media is more mature in these matters, expanding its coverage of a possible tightening as early as tomorrow (40% possible). GBPUSD fails at 1.5048, eyeing 1.4930, CAD broadens losses , eyeing 1.0345 and 87.20 in USDCAD and CADJPY respectively.
  • #218,068
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:08am Mar 11, 2010 9:08am
Does anyone know what time tomorrow PBoC is supposed to announce whether or not they would tighten? Thanks!
  • #218,069
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:10am Mar 11, 2010 9:10am
Quoting Geppy
I'm guessing we're going to see some slight up and down action and overall sideways trading for the next 12-16 hours. We had a great blast up from the 135 zone last night to put us trading well into 136 this morning. Some consolidation is definitely needed before the next leg up.

I'm not sure I'll be buying anymore during this consolidation as I was able to get some good additions during the most recent retracement. But if I hadn't I'd be looking to accumulate some longs.

I'd expect the next up leg to put us near the most recent highs in the...

Looks like distribution to me but I guess we will soon find out. . .
  • #218,070
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:14am Mar 11, 2010 9:14am
Quoting quecee5
Looks like distribution to me but I guess we will soon find out. . .
agree with q.
the move up from 132 looks like a correction to me.
  • #218,071
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:14am Mar 11, 2010 9:14am
Quoting quecee5
Looks like distribution to me but I guess we will soon find out. . .

whats your outlook on cable Q

thanks
by Thich Nhat Hanh "Smile, breathe and go slowly."
  • #218,072
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:19am Mar 11, 2010 9:19am
Quoting Farmboy
whats your outlook on cable Q

thanks
Overall I'm bullish cable above 1.4850. . . we will see 1.60 by Q2 but a test of the low (1.4870) or at least near it is not far fetch. . . But I don't think the absolute low (1.4780) wil be taken
  • #218,073
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:20am Mar 11, 2010 9:20am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=218070



Not that it happens enough though..once she broke through my Fibs at 135.20 I said should go straight up and close to 100 pips later there she is..
Banking my profit from long at 134.70 and calling it a day..
Happy trading
Dean
  • #218,074
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:22am Mar 11, 2010 9:22am
Quoting pkimnyc
agree with q.
the move up from 132 looks like a correction to me.
Also agree with this overall (long-term bearish here). But I think the correction still has a ways to play out. I won't be looking to short until 138.50-141 area.

That being said, I recognize the need to be very careful. I'm essentially counter trend trading the major trend (down) and know it's important to watch support levels more than resistance ones. But again, I see this correction having more room to run and I'd rather be taking some pips from it than watching from the sidelines.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,075
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:24am Mar 11, 2010 9:24am
Quoting quecee5
Overall I'm bullish cable above 1.4850. . . we will see 1.60 by Q2 but a test of the low (1.4870) or at least near it is not far fetch. . . But I don't think the absolute low (1.4780) wil be taken
not sure we will see 1.6 in Q2. election will be May 6th and pound should remain weak until after that.....unless the polls start to show a likely conservative victory. in that case we might see 1.6. the more the polls indicate a hung parliament the weaker the pound will get.

what you think of audjpy though? I favour a retest of the 86 high? if gj is going to head to 140 area, hard to see how audjpy isnt going to head towards 86 with it?
  • #218,076
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:31am Mar 11, 2010 9:31am
Quoting Geppy
Also agree with this overall (long-term bearish here). But I think the correction still has a ways to play out. I won't be looking to short until 138.50-141 area.

That being said, I recognize the need to be very careful. I'm essentially counter trend trading the major trend (down) and know it's important to watch support levels more than resistance ones. But again, I see this correction having more room to run and I'd rather be taking some pips from it than watching from the sidelines.
Agreed but I think if we see above 139.25 that would spell reversal as 139.25 would become significant support once again. . . but I'm not so convinced we will see those levels until I see last weeks high taken. . . and we have one more day to do so - if it isn't taken this week that would leave a lower high for the week. . .
  • #218,077
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:39am Mar 11, 2010 9:39am
yes, very good observation !

Quoting quecee5
Agreed but I think if we see above 139.25 that would spell reversal as 139.25 would become significant support once again. . . but I'm not so convinced we will see those levels until I see last weeks high taken. . . and we have one more day to do so - if it isn't taken this week that would leave a lower high for the week. . .
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #218,078
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:44am Mar 11, 2010 9:44am
Quoting quecee5
Agreed but I think if we see above 139.25 that would spell reversal as 139.25 would become significant support once again. . . but I'm not so convinced we will see those levels until I see last weeks high taken. . . and we have one more day to do so - if it isn't taken this week that would leave a lower high for the week. . .
138.30-139.30 is definitely going to be a big decision zone. It's pretty easy to see by connecting the three lower lows on a daily. I have a hard time seeing us getting above that resistance zone but won't discount anything yet. You can be sure I'll be scrutinizing it as we get even closer. Testing that support turned resistance and dropping like a rock would be a classical trade and I'll gladly jump on that boat!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,079
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:45am Mar 11, 2010 9:45am
Quoting dean walker
On one of my charts sorry not allow to show it because of the rules of the course I took..

What rules?
  • #218,080
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:49am Mar 11, 2010 9:49am
Rules of not posting templates..Max Tiger rules

This system along with Market profile is working very well.
Dean

Quoting direct-trade
What rules?
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