USDCAD trend reversal?

FOTO : my feel is that your position shall profit. I am thinking 4th quarter
for change ( this follows your previous posts re: ant revolution).

Teks tonight: COT: USDX: MacD is going down <signal ( but > H2O )
sto is going down.

BUT, the COMMS are net short (USD) & are flat from Feb 16 - now.

CAD: comms are increasing their shorts (Cad +ve-US/CAD -ve).

Sorry for the dumb question, but what are COMMS? Thanks ... commodities?

Great to read you Cdawg! This definitely, is NOT a dumb ?- actually, an example of learning.

FOTO or Venge & a few others are probably better able to answer than I; however, they undoubtedly will correct my answer.

COMMs are the COMMERCIAL concerns reporting their trade positions each week ( for the COT report). My understanding is that they are generally PRODUCERS & these guys eventually determine the longer term trend.
The LARGE TRADERS (hedge funds etc) go opposite to the COMMs. They are the CONSUMERS of a product.

LTs buy when COMMs are selling.

What I look for in the COT report- if the COMMs are increasing the number of their short positions,then my thinking-the LTs are buying & I shall look for a long bias.
I don't trade COT, just look to see what the sharks are doing & hope to avoid becoming "bait" when they decide $ WILL change direction.

As of last Friday- the COMMs were still selling the AUD & the CAD.

Therefore: Aud/US long bias & US/CAD short bias

Scare, don't sell yourself short mate! Well explained. Cdawg, here are a couple of links. First one is a good write up on COT reports http://tuckerreport.com/indicators/cot-data/ and this last one has charts for the COT data http://www.timingcharts.com/. I haven't really used this one, but it looks interesting.

Cheers,

Veng.

Good morning all,

Scarecru as my trades are based upon macro themes, it may suprise you but I really do not follow what other positioners are doing.

It is a belief of mine that no one really knows why the market does what it does. We just put on trades based upon our perceptions of what we think is going on. Most of the newsprint is not really about producing informed decisions, it is about the selling of an idea for a fee to clients. Marketing makes money on wall street.

Thus your decision making process is just as valid as anyone elses because it works for you.

If somebody was so smart that they had the power of knowledge of the future then how did the debt crisis come to fruitition?

All that said, the question on my mind currently is where goes the future?
( This is how I trade, does not make me right. )

Are we at a major juncture in the markets that risk assumption is the place to be? The return of carry trades and economic stability is at hand?

Perhaps I am mistaken but if memory serves, overleveraging of the economy, sustained by easy money policies of central banks + governmental deficit spending created unsustainable debt loads that collapsed.

The solution, now being offered for recovery is releveraging of the economy by devaluing the currency ( Q.E.) + cheap money + enormous debt funded fiscal policies.

There is no effort let alone focus onto sustainable recovery based upon savings and investment and private sector job creation. The question going forwards for equities and growth prospects for major economies is: Do greater fools exist to make releveraging possible. Are the fools (possibly genius's as the savers will be defrauded) to be provided for by the funders (Banks) and given the wherewithall to allow the merry go round one more ride?

Rod Serling in his twilight zone, would have been unable to write a better script.
As has been said the Capt. of the Titanic is reappointed. The ghost ship rises again.

Since I choose to live by rational thought I believe that we have reached the end of the line in the insanity. If I am correct the tide is turning and the electorate has regained its' marbles. The culprits are to be evicted come November (at least in America)

I will continue to look for retracement opportunities in the USD and trade those as they appear (so I think) The market dollar bears have returned and so the downside will be limited on retracement trades as the market bias will be towards the oversold USD (long term)

There is a concerted effort underway to get people to believe that their money is useless (cash is trash) so buying the straw hat in winter comes to mind.

Watching this pair closely as it could be setting up for a correction within the next few days.

In regards to previous post. Weekly trade setting up.
Buy clear break/4H close of 1.0300 with primary target 1.0500, stops well below 1.0220.

Cheers,
S.

Venge: Thanks for the links.

I use timing charts for COT. I like the futures & COT graphs for the currency being on the same screen. The futures' PA & your choice of indicators give additional visual info.

Going to check out the tucker link.

Is USDX ready to retrace?

FOTO: thank you again for the valuable ( in my opinion) information.

I don't know about other viewers; but I read & later re-read the posts in order to further my education. There have been many nuggets that I missed on the first couple of reads.

I am still an "ANT" & utilize teks to bottom feed & build the nest egg.

I expect a 2nd leg down; however, I do not have the exact date of its starting. My guess is watch events leading to Nov ( as per your insight).

Loved the "re-appointing the Captain of the Titanic". According to recent news & mkts, it is SOooo appropo!{ What is the definition of insanity? Do what you did before & hope for different results}!

The media had us believing that a "swine flu" pandemic was certain.
People lined up at clinics for hours in order to receive protection.
News at its worst (sort of like fx news).

Thanks FOTO; we trade differently ( as our circumstances are different);
but, ultimately, I think that we are on the same (unpopular) consensus.

Mack: good clean chart & reasoning.Yeppers: grab your pips on your trade.

Yes, retrace possible with your parameters.

Hope you get your pips: but, I am longer term down.

You say you're longer term down, I'm curious what your longer term target is.

regarding the big triangle in U/cad - it's a good chance that it is developing into a reversal pattern, I look at weekly Top/bottom in U/cad and I found this :Top in 2002 , it was a triangle , which is usual for a topping pattern.
this view is in accordance with what I think of a top in A/U in a week or two and resumption of E/U downtrend

I think shahab is on to something. Inside his/her nice weekly triangle (thanks for the chart!) we have a nice down channel (hourly chart), which looks like a declining wedge on the daily chart. Note: declining wedge in a downt trend usually is followed by a bullish reversal. If we go out to the daily charts we see declining volume over the last 4-5 days which is also typically seen in the wedge pattern as selling pressure wanes.

On the CCI and MACD, nice bullish divergence. 24, 55 and 100 hr. SMAs are all clustered within about 25 pips of each other and 200 hr coming in at 1.0402. Top of the channel/wedge at 1.0304 and 100 hr. SMA at 1.0300.

Daily chart is a bit mixed. Indicators showing bullish divergences, yet both have broken through their respective trendlines... and long-term SMAs still bearish. MACD looks like downside could have a bit more to it as does CCI after getting close to resetting itself near the zero line ( got to ~ -29).

Yet with major supports so nearby at 1.0225 and 1.0207ish and selling pressure drying up, a buy on a break higher through 1.03 area could be a decent trade. If that were to happen, I would be watching PA around 1.0340 and 1.0440.

My view is that if we don't see a break to the downside in the next couple of days (end of this week at the very latest) then we should see a correction higher.

Eagerly awaiting this break of tedium in the USD/CAD, I am!

Happy trading

It broke 1.03. Wake up!

I've been watching the GBP/CAD and the EURO/CAD for signs they were bottoming. Do not have clear evidence yet of that happening. I think the heavy selling of these two pairs has contributed to the inability of the USD/CAD to sustain a rally.
In other words the selling out of Europe has been disporportional. Thus being a contributing factor to the CAD strength.

You will please forgive my idosycnchracies as believing government is not a strong suit.

EUR/CAD looks to be bottoming shortly (1.35-1.40), but GBP/CAD has never bottomed before, so I find that pair hard to gauge.

Still waiting for the close above the 03 level.
Cheers.

Well the bullish reversal has not yet come to fruition, and as Macky said - still waiting for a close above 1.03. Need to see it hold above and retest 1.03 which would need to hold as support. Didn't do that today, and barely managed to push into the 1.03s.

Pretty good sell off in the last little bit despite commodities getting smacked lower, and only very tiny risk appetite. Maybe higher yield differentials for CAD debt vs. falling US debt yields are helping the loonie out...

Noting some bullish CAD comments from Fin. Minister Flaherty. Still a lot of CAD buyers out there and CAD banks are seeing Asian, Middle Eastern and Russian names stocking up.

Personally, I am (still) waiting for a break of 1.02 to get short and 1.03 to get long. Luckily I am patient!

Maybe someone else wants to take a look at the following. The Euro/Usd pair has been trading in an confined area for the last four weeks. If you go to the weekly/10 year chart you may find the same thing I did. There is no other pattern configuration as is being experienced now. This tight series of the Doji candle.

The inference is that central banks have been intervening steadily to stabilize the Euro at these levels. So if your trading has been getting subject to whipsaws, you might reconsider how to approach the market.

The other inference, no longer in freely traded markets but currency controls are being used.

Hope this link comes up. From Bloomberg.com videos
"Mallaby says U.S. exports may suffer from Greece crisis" march 9

This scenario is the bullish USD case for what happens if the Euro falls. This may be the trigger for the long awaited commodity weakness.


http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...oJXRF8WQYc.asf

If there is intervention, this is where the fear comes from of the falling Euro