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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #961
  • Mar 4, 2010 10:23am Mar 4, 2010 10:23am
hi guys and gals


my first post in this thread, but not new to ff and been following jackos and j16 thread for quite some time, i just dicovered this thread and must say Dan you doing a pretty fine job

if anyone can chip in and comment on my trade

didn't quite reach the 50% level
price rejection at 1.5100 and minor trend line
entry at 1.5075 as price came back down with 100 pip stop loss
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #962
  • Mar 5, 2010 10:06am Mar 5, 2010 10:06am
Hi Sohail,

I have been patiantly waiting for this pair to hit the 1.5180 - 200 area @ the 50% fib and closer to my TL.
Good luck with your trade i hope it comes back for you :-)

Quoting Sohail786
hi guys and gals


my first post in this thread, but not new to ff and been following jackos and j16 thread for quite some time, i just dicovered this thread and must say Dan you doing a pretty fine job

if anyone can chip in and comment on my trade

didn't quite reach the 50% level
price rejection at 1.5100 and minor trend line
entry at 1.5075 as price came back down with 100 pip stop loss
  • #963
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:47am Mar 6, 2010 9:47am
Quoting bez3000
Hi Sohail,

I have been patiantly waiting for this pair to hit the 1.5180 - 200 area @ the 50% fib and closer to my TL.
Good luck with your trade i hope it comes back for you :-)

hi bez
am in and out already for around +55, it didn't move as i expected it to, maybe the world waiting for NFP, so thats why i bailed before nfp, the nfp could set off a deeper retracement, maybe to the outer trendline

sohail
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gb.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #964
  • Mar 8, 2010 10:13am Mar 8, 2010 10:13am
Heads up Guyz & Gals....Yen Pairs seem ready to move.......anyone thinking the same....

Mainly lookin to
i.) Trend in direction of major trend;
ii.) Watch the Round Numbers;
iii.) Watch th 50% & 61.8% Fibs;
iv.) Watch Support / Resistance Areas/Zones; and
v.) Use Minimal Trendlines.........

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy (4-hr).gif Size: 20 KB
  • #965
  • Edited 1:23pm Mar 8, 2010 10:23am | Edited 1:23pm
Am already short the GBPCAD but saw this and hope someone took this trade....Fibs, Resistance & TL confluence.....shouldn't we just love Mondays and US Market open..................
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpsgd (4-hr).gif Size: 15 KB
  • #966
  • Mar 8, 2010 12:57pm Mar 8, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting Sohail786
hi guys and gals


my first post in this thread, but not new to ff and been following jackos and j16 thread for quite some time, i just dicovered this thread and must say Dan you doing a pretty fine job

if anyone can chip in and comment on my trade

didn't quite reach the 50% level
price rejection at 1.5100 and minor trend line
entry at 1.5075 as price came back down with 100 pip stop loss
Welcome aboard Sohail786,

Sorry I wasn't been able to reply sooner & thanks for the kind words!

Glad you took a profit out of that one – I agree with bez 1.5200 is (or was) my area for G/U. However price couldn't break the 50% level at 1.5177 so I took a short at 1.5150.

I am also short E/U from 1.3650.

Regards,

Dan
  • #967
  • Mar 8, 2010 1:00pm Mar 8, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting bez3000
Hi Sohail,

I have been patiantly waiting for this pair to hit the 1.5180 - 200 area @ the 50% fib and closer to my TL.
Good luck with your trade i hope it comes back for you :-)
Hi bez,

I imagine you took a punt on this today?

Keep us posted on how it turns out.

Regards,

Dan
  • #968
  • Mar 8, 2010 1:01pm Mar 8, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting Danku
Heads up Guyz & Gals....Yen Pairs seem ready to move.......anyone thinking the same....

Mainly lookin to
i.) Trend in direction of major trend;
ii.) Watch the Round Numbers;
iii.) Watch th 50% & 61.8% Fibs;
iv.) Watch Support / Resistance Areas/Zones; and
v.) Use Minimal Trendlines.........

cheers
I must admit I'm watching U/J thinking "are you going to drop"!? If it does I will be in on it!
  • #969
  • Mar 8, 2010 1:03pm Mar 8, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting Danku
Am already short the GBPCAD but saw this and hope someone took this trade....Fibs, Resistance & TL confluence.....shouldn't we just look Mondays and US Market open..................
Congratulations! GBP/CAD isn't one of my regulars but that looks to be a good trade!

Regards,

Dan
  • #970
  • Mar 8, 2010 1:13pm Mar 8, 2010 1:13pm
Quote
Welcome aboard Sohail786,

Sorry I wasn't been able to reply sooner & thanks for the kind words!

Glad you took a profit out of that one – I agree with bez 1.5200 is (or was) my area for G/U. However price couldn't break the 50% level at 1.5177 so I took a short at 1.5150.

I am also short E/U from 1.3650.

Regards,

Dan

Hi Dan,

Whats your TF for these shorts? Will you hold them for 1.30 (E/U) or 1.40 (G/U)...i mean longer TF or shorter TF?

Regards,

kingfisher.
  • #971
  • Mar 8, 2010 1:55pm Mar 8, 2010 1:55pm
Quoting kingfisher
Hi Dan,

Whats your TF for these shorts? Will you hold them for 1.30 (E/U) or 1.40 (G/U)...i mean longer TF or shorter TF?

Regards,

kingfisher.
Hi Kingfisher,

Well I would like to think they are both longer term trades however I will take whatever the market gives me! As I trail my stop I don't suppose I will see either of those two levels before I get closed! If that happens I will just enter at another discount (providing analysis supports the trend)!

Regards,

Dan
  • #972
  • Mar 8, 2010 2:37pm Mar 8, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting DanUK
Welcome aboard Sohail786,

Sorry I wasn't been able to reply sooner & thanks for the kind words!

Glad you took a profit out of that one – I agree with bez 1.5200 is (or was) my area for G/U. However price couldn't break the 50% level at 1.5177 so I took a short at 1.5150.

I am also short E/U from 1.3650.

Regards,

Dan
hi dan

thanks for the reply, just a few quick question

when you say that price couldn't break the 50% level, is it by a certain length of time you are waiting for the 50% level to break, e.g. price couldn't break the 50%level during london session so we go short with the trend? or are you just observing price action around the 50% level?

also i am not sure wether i place my fib right, meaning is it the right swing high/low

like in image 1? or right in image 2 the swing in image 2 lokks the most obvious to me

sohail
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #973
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:19am Mar 9, 2010 2:19am
Hi Sohail,

My simple answer, i have my Fibs the same as your first chart...........so you should be fine.......and as you can see price bounced off the 50%Fibs.....also you have some confluence on the 50%Fibs with the 1.5200 RN and which has acted as Resistance before.

Something interesting and just a thought, if i had a large account, i think i would already be done for the month if you took the following short trades.......GBPCAD, GBPUSD and GBPJPY................approximately over 550Pips in last 24hours................


Quoting Sohail786
hi dan

thanks for the reply, just a few quick question

when you say that price couldn't break the 50% level, is it by a certain length of time you are waiting for the 50% level to break, e.g. price couldn't break the 50%level during london session so we go short with the trend? or are you just observing price action around the 50% level?

also i am not sure wether i place my fib right, meaning is it the right swing high/low

like in image 1? or right in image 2 the swing in image 2 lokks the most obvious to me

sohail
  • #974
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:26am Mar 9, 2010 2:26am
Quoting Danku
Hi Sohail,

My simple answer, i have my Fibs the same as your first chart...........so you should be fine.......and as you can see price bounced off the 50%Fibs.....also you have some confluence on the 50%Fibs with the 1.5200 RN and which has acted as Resistance before.

Something interesting and just a thought, if i had a large account, i think i would already be done for the month if you took the following short trades.......GBPCAD, GBPUSD and GBPJPY................approximately over 550Pips in last 24hours................
Do you consider correlated risk though? I would be unlikely to be short sterling x3 without halving my position size. If one trade failed they all would, that is my concern.
Just wondering
Nicola
  • #975
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:23am Mar 9, 2010 5:23am
I made some pips on the gbp/usd (demo), but my problem is to know how long it will run for?
  • #976
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:36am Mar 9, 2010 5:36am
Good observation elitejets...........what a coincidence, i was discussing this same issue with another trader in another thread where he had placed shorts on gbpjpy, eurjpy, audjpy, nzdjpy and usdjpy, talk about risk x 5.....but his answer which i respect and admire is that he was in his comfort zone, trading his plan and that he knew some fundamental information on capital injection/cross over investments due to interest rates.

For me, correlation is a key element in my trading......" i definately would not magnify my risk that much.....i would instead just pack all my lots onto one of the pairs because as you say in the unlikely event something goes wrong then you would be hit big time...................good concern and no need to wonder................cheers

Quoting elitejets
Do you consider correlated risk though? I would be unlikely to be short sterling x3 without halving my position size. If one trade failed they all would, that is my concern.
Just wondering
Nicola
  • #977
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:45am Mar 9, 2010 5:45am
Thanks all good points.
I only ask because I get sucked in to it sometimes myself, its easy to do.
  • #978
  • Mar 9, 2010 7:46am Mar 9, 2010 7:46am
Quoting Sohail786
hi dan

thanks for the reply, just a few quick question

when you say that price couldn't break the 50% level, is it by a certain length of time you are waiting for the 50% level to break, e.g. price couldn't break the 50%level during london session so we go short with the trend? or are you just observing price action around the 50% level?

also i am not sure wether i place my fib right, meaning is it the right swing high/low

like in image 1? or right in image 2 the swing in image 2 lokks the most obvious to me

sohail
Hi,

I watch price action rather than time - although both are factors. If you take a look at an H1 chart you will see several candles attempt to make it past the 50% level (which to answer your second question I had at 1.5177, as per your first chart) but none could hold it past so I placed an order to sell below at 1.5150.

Hope that helps!

Regards,

Dan
  • #979
  • Mar 9, 2010 7:51am Mar 9, 2010 7:51am
Quoting Andy_G
I made some pips on the gbp/usd (demo), but my problem is to know how long it will run for?
Hi Andy_G,

I think it is fair to say that this is one of the biggest problems you will face in trading. The exit makes all the difference. I know some people will tell you that you can't go broke taking a profit but that is not necessarily true.

In my opinion the best thing you can do is to try the trailing stop method and see how you get on. If you follow the trend it is the easiest way to manage your trades. If you follow the rules it is a mechanical exit and will prevent you from allowing your emotions to interfere with your trade management.

Regards,

Dan
  • #980
  • Mar 9, 2010 12:46pm Mar 9, 2010 12:46pm
thanks danuk danku

clears things up
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