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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #217,701
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:17pm Mar 8, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting witsnpips
hehe, i'm tuned alright!
Well if you are y'd better catch the dip on GU this week or next because this is the last time u will see 1.48/1.49 area for a while. . . (months. . .)
  • #217,702
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:36pm Mar 8, 2010 5:36pm
Hey guys I would like to join in if that is ok?


riggot is absolutely spot on.The carry trade has unwound and for this trend to reverse to the up side would be highly unlikely (would take an extreme amnt of effort), that being said I had several positions from the 150-151 and holding one small position for the test of the lows, I am anticipating a rather large retrace but will not be daily trend reversal. I have given up yrs ago on predicting the exact pnt it will retrace to so I am going to get out my shot gun and be ready. First entry is very small 135 area short(hope i am wrong), second 136.5 short (hope i am wrong)3. 137.75 short (hope i am right) cut all trades @ 140.23. break your risk up. not glamorous but works

I love the gbp, the news is bs and the longs will soon find out, are we due for pull back (oh yes) how much of one? I dont exactly know, but the 157-160 area would be a lovely area to restack shorts, I cant stomach the longs and may miss out on a lovely retrace 500-800pips, but Ill wait... I just took profit last week (a little early i admit) and still holding one small position. as i said earlier the carry trade has unwound and much to hard to reinvigorate in these economic conditions, down is the path of least resistance..

quecee, no disrespect...
  • #217,703
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:46pm Mar 8, 2010 5:46pm
what conditions are those then

DJ all bad news dips being bought

Joke here In Vancouver Canada is ' if this is recession cannot wait till the good times ocme' here they LINE up to buy 600 k houses andp ay over aksing.

I always thought that the cold weather up here froze those Canucks's brains ...lol

Quoting mr-T
Hey guys I would like to join in if that is ok?


riggot is absolutely spot on.The carry trade has unwound and for this trend to reverse to the up side would be highly unlikely (would take an extreme amnt of effort), that being said I had several positions from the 150-151 and holding one small position for the test of the lows, I am anticipating a rather large retrace but will not be daily trend reversal. I have given up yrs ago on predicting the exact pnt it will retrace to so I am going to get out my shot gun and be ready. First entry is very...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #217,704
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:49pm Mar 8, 2010 5:49pm
.....but not really...

Has anyone else been looking at the COT reports for Sterling? As of 5th March, large traders were net short to the tune of -67k. Ordinarily, I don't pay too much heed to COT reports as they are 4 days out of date. BUT, look at the corresponding PA during the period when large traders were increasing their short positions; Sterling strengthened against Yen and USD.
The following chart also shows the volumes during the 4th March rally. Note the high volume rejection of higher prices.

Big boys still look short to me, but I could be wrong. Hmmmm

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rejection.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #217,705
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:50pm Mar 8, 2010 5:50pm
Quoting quecee5
Well if you are y'd better catch the dip on GU this week or next because this is the last time u will see 1.48/1.49 area for a while. . . (months. . .)
Queecee, what do you expect for GY? 148?
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  • #217,706
  • Edited 6:09pm Mar 8, 2010 5:58pm | Edited 6:09pm
Quoting quecee5
Well if you are y'd better catch the dip on GU this week or next because this is the last time u will see 1.48/1.49 area for a while. . . (months. . .)
yup....ONE LAST dip..AM WAITING for....

Looking to buy POUND soon wherever I can..all PAIRS...

Its sterlings turn to SHINE....

G/U...last low is gonna go as well.. Dont think it will hold (147.xx)
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #217,707
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:59pm Mar 8, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting malcolmb14
what conditions are those then

DJ all bad news dips being bought

Joke here In Vancouver Canada is ' if this is recession cannot wait till the good times ocme' here they LINE up to buy 600 k houses andp ay over aksing.

I always thought that the cold weather up here froze those Canucks's brains ...lol

The kind where at any moment in uncertain times you could get your shorts taken from you, better plan.... "lets keep #'s and sentiment as positive as possible without looking too obvious" when the dealing is done can you say "trapped"

believe it or not the uptrend from the lows was profit taking and small position discount buying, the positions now have been reloading of shorts.

when will it happen? not exactly sure, how fast will it be? not exactly sure. will you know when it happed after the fact? of this I am very sure.
  • #217,708
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:03pm Mar 8, 2010 6:03pm
actualy the move of GJ last Friday was driven by UJ .....which in turn was driven by the effort to drive DJ up to resistance. This week will be a choppy week for sure ....until eaither s &p is rejected or a break through occurs . Todays move in eu and gu were both down moves on very low volume driven by the decline in gold.

FTSE has a bit of room to resistance and LOndon maybe the easier session to trade.

Quoting mr-T
The kind where at any moment in uncertain times you could get your shorts taken from you, better plan.... "lets keep #'s and sentiment as positive as possible without looking too obvious" when the dealing is done can you say "trapped"

believe it or not the uptrend from the lows was profit taking and small position discount buying, the positions now have been reloading of shorts.

when will it happen? not exactly sure, how fast will it be? not exactly sure. will you know when it happed after the fact? of this I am very sure.
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  • #217,709
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:17pm Mar 8, 2010 6:17pm
mal, sorry i didnt clarify, I am a long term trend trader who builds positions, some of the trade may last months and some a day,

I am saying that the "overall" picture is down we may have a retrace as high as 146-148 on gbp and as high as 160 on gu, but that regrouping and positioning long on the gbp, just aint going to happen, until there is a real fundamental change. Maybe we will find a bottom in the next yr or so, but if basic structure doesn't change you can hold your shorts for a long time.
  • #217,710
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:20pm Mar 8, 2010 6:20pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Queecee, what do you expect for GY? 148?
1st target 140.50 area. . . Will zip thru 138.23/139.24 straight to 140.50. . . Then 144.50 next target. . . Wait for a pull back 133/134 area. . if it gets dn there. . .
  • #217,711
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:21pm Mar 8, 2010 6:21pm
135.50 target met
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  • #217,712
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:23pm Mar 8, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
.....but not really...

Has anyone else been looking at the COT reports for Sterling? As of 5th March, large traders were net short to the tune of -67k. Ordinarily, I don't pay too much heed to COT reports as they are 4 days out of date. BUT, look at the corresponding PA during the period when large traders were increasing their short positions; Sterling strengthened against Yen and USD.
The following chart also shows the volumes during the 4th March rally. Note the high volume rejection of higher prices.

Big boys still look short to me, but...
Net speculative positioning on the British Pound is quite similar to that of the Euro, with Non-Commercial traders very much net-short the GBP/USD. Similar one-sided extremes in forex options risk reversals suggest that the GBP/USD may consolidate through the near-term in the context of a broader decline. FX Options risk reversals likewise show that traders have quite aggressively bet on further British Pound weakness. The clear difficulty is placing any GBP/USD short trades. Risk/reward warns that the GBP/USD could bounce noticeably before continuing its decline.


Read more: DailyFX - US Dollar at Risk of Further Declines On One-Sided Positioning. . .


  • #217,713
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:27pm Mar 8, 2010 6:27pm
http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/c...f-traders.aspx
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  • #217,714
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:31pm Mar 8, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
I'm agree!

I'd like to see 135 first, maybe we could see a spike down until 134.5 area, and then 139.
Hmm! Geppy is breaking 135.7x area, next parade @135

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy1h.gif Size: 21 KB
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #217,715
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:33pm Mar 8, 2010 6:33pm
Quoting mr-T
mal, sorry i didnt clarify, I am a long term trend trader who builds positions, some of the trade may last months and some a day,

I am saying that the "overall" picture is down we may have a retrace as high as 146-148 on gbp and as high as 160 on gu, but that regrouping and positioning long on the gbp, just aint going to happen, until there is a real fundamental change. Maybe we will find a bottom in the next yr or so, but if basic structure doesn't change you can hold your shorts for a long time.
Doesn't hurt to build a position long just in case. . .
Here is what I see. . . Q1 = 1.53, Q2 = 1.60, Q3 = 1.63 and Q4 = 1.63/1.62 or (flat). . . Could it be possible that the turmoil is somewhat priced in? Also, don't they too have to watch for inflation with such low currency rates?

Lots of things to take in consideration here when talking forex rates. . .
  • #217,716
  • Edited 6:58pm Mar 8, 2010 6:45pm | Edited 6:58pm
you just hit the nail on the head. COT reports are the only information on how large traders are positioned, therefore, what is the long term trend - it doesn't matter if they lag 4 days or so.
pound is being sold, but right now they want a better price to reload shorts, hence the rally.

take a look at yen-globex as well and see what's going on there.

so, you are not wrong. big boys are already positioned for shorts, but are cashing profits and waiting for a better price.


Quoting ukdaytrader
.....but not really...

Has anyone else been looking at the COT reports for Sterling? As of 5th March, large traders were net short to the tune of -67k. Ordinarily, I don't pay too much heed to COT reports as they are 4 days out of date. BUT, look at the corresponding PA during the period when large traders were increasing their short positions; Sterling strengthened against Yen and USD.
The following chart also shows the volumes during the 4th March rally. Note the high volume rejection of higher prices.

Big boys still look short to me, but...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #217,717
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:50pm Mar 8, 2010 6:50pm
Quoting quecee5
Doesn't hurt to build a position long just in case. . .
Here is what I see. . . Q1 = 1.53, Q2 = 1.60, Q3 = 1.63 and Q4 = 1.63/1.62 or (flat). . . Could it be possible that the turmoil is somewhat priced in? Also, don't they too have to watch for inflation with such low currency rates?

Lots of things to take in consideration here when talking forex rates. . .

small rundown: the only way to pay these massive debts is with cheap money (ie inflation). China, the largest holder of usd holds all the cards to some degree. The dollar has to strengthen with great sentiment inorder to unload. They will not loan anymore money (except superficially) until their position is in check. I also see gold coming down over the next yr or so. guess what they will be exchanging their dollar for? America checkmate...

This shouldn't surprise anyone they told us exactly how they would defeat us.

I would go real deep, but I am just not very articulate at displaying my thoughts, The BOE (ie Rothschilds) and the fed know exactly how this has to play out. NWO.
  • #217,718
  • Mar 8, 2010 7:31pm Mar 8, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting mr-T
small rundown: the only way to pay these massive debts is with cheap money (ie inflation). China, the largest holder of usd holds all the cards to some degree. The dollar has to strengthen with great sentiment inorder to unload. They will not loan anymore money (except superficially) until their position is in check. I also see gold coming down over the next yr or so. guess what they will be exchanging their dollar for? America checkmate...

This shouldn't surprise anyone they told us exactly how they would defeat us.

I would go real deep,...
Yea we can go there New World Order, Illuminati, Brotherhood. . . but in the end. . . things happen in cycles and we are in that sideways cycle for now.
This time last year no one was talking NWO just enjoying the massive bull run 4K pips. . . Anyway, overall trend is down but it won't happen in a straight line we do agree on that. . .
  • #217,719
  • Mar 8, 2010 7:46pm Mar 8, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Hmm! Geppy is breaking 135.7x area, next parade @135

Attachment
What's next?
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #217,720
  • Mar 8, 2010 7:50pm Mar 8, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
What's next?
I was just wondering the same.
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