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anti-martingale by Lauriston Livermore

  • #21
  • Feb 21, 2010 5:27pm Feb 21, 2010 5:27pm
Quoting tiago
hanover,

i respect you bro, but i dont agree with you, i wish i can show you the way i do things and what i've come up with but im not at liberty to share it here on a public forum....if your interested pop me a pm and i can go over it with you....cheers

Phorex Phreak
Many thanks for the offer.

I don't want to debate semantics any further; everybody sees things differently. As I said in my previous post, if you've managed to prove that your strategy is profitable, then nobody can argue.

Many pips to you,
David
  • #22
  • Feb 21, 2010 5:33pm Feb 21, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting hanover
Many thanks for the offer.

I don't want to debate semantics any further; everybody sees things differently. As I said in my previous post, if you've managed to prove that your strategy is profitable, then nobody can argue.

Many pips to you,
David
Both ways of Martingaling work IF you use the right method at the right time which is the tricky part and know when to cut your losses on the averaging down sort.

So maybe the setup he trades his method works for but you look for a different setup and therefore it won't for that.



And both have downsides ofcourse!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #23
  • Feb 21, 2010 6:33pm Feb 21, 2010 6:33pm
Does position building work? Of course, if you are on the right side of a trend. On the wrong side, you lose. Hanover has stated correctly that MM alone cannot produce long term profits. Over a few weeks, or even months, yes---your particular MM style may well put you in profit. But it is not sustainable over the long term. I realize this notion rubs people the wrong way. I am not going to argure a well established mathematical fact. All I can do is advise this----"Spend your time and effort trying to be on the correct side of the trend, not your MM inside of the trend." If you are on the correct side, you will make money with any half-assed money management system. If you are on the wrong side---no money management system can save you. Good trades to all

Regards,
  • #24
  • Edited 7:14pm Feb 21, 2010 6:56pm | Edited 7:14pm
First of all, like i stated before it depends on how your doing it, and the whole idea is that when you do lose your only losing on a slither/fraction of a contract therefore the losses are really kept to the bare minimum....it rubs people the wrong way because in the simplest form your right, you will lose if you do it the conventional way, but there are a couple of ways and a few more caveats to this discussion that your not aware of that negate the negatives about position sizing that you believe....

cut losses short and let profits run is the golden rule, if you look and concenrate your efforts on the cut losses short part of it in terms of position sizing a la van tharp you'll start to realize and come to open your eyes the the negatives you speak of can be negated and therefore when you do have a winner that you ride and add on to it more than makes up for all the little losses, and this is what long term sustainability is all about, and with this type of system im also making the most out of my wins, so if a trade goes 100 pips in my favour instead of me making lets say 1000 dollars because i position sized correctly on that same 100 pips i make roughly 1700 dollars instead, so now when im losing i only lose a fraction of a contract at a very miniscule cost compared to the monster gains i make when i win.....

my trading didnt take off until i started to concentrate on position sizing in relation to cutting those losses short, i knew how to let profits run and build onto a trend but i had problems with that because when the market retraced and came back i lost money on the trade and the scale ins, then i started focusing on how i can scale in without being exposed to retracements and crashing the position sizing and therefore i started to concentrate more on the cutting losses short part of it and its made a huge difference in my trading performance, and in the end my friend the simplest mathematical fact you cant ignore is at the end of the month wheather your wins outweigh your losses....cheers

Phorex Phreak

Quoting FX-Petra
Does position building work? Of course, if you are on the right side of a trend. On the wrong side, you lose. Hanover has stated correctly that MM alone cannot produce long term profits. Over a few weeks, or even months, yes---your particular MM style may well put you in profit. But it is not sustainable over the long term. I realize this notion rubs people the wrong way. I am not going to argure a well established mathematical fact. All I can do is advise this----"Spend your time and effort trying to [b]be on the correct side of the trend,...
  • #25
  • Feb 21, 2010 9:58pm Feb 21, 2010 9:58pm
Now you guys (pipEASY, tiago) have made me feel guilty, because you've generously shared info when I'd decided to bow out of the discussion.

Actually, I think we're all pretty much agreed in principle here, even if we see things from different viewpoints. First and foremost, long term profit is the ultimate goal, and all math aside, it doesn't really matter how each one of us gets there.

What you guys (Tiago, pipEASY) appear to be doing is adding to positions in high probability situations, thereby increasing your winners, in which case your wins will outsize your losses. Hence, as you point out, you can come out ahead overall, even with a < 50% win rate. Believe it or not, that's actually in keeping with what I was saying: expectancy is the product of both win rate AND average win size (i.e. R:R). To state the obvious: the more heavily net long you are when price is rising, and net short when it's falling, the more $$$ you're going to make. That has to be an indisputable universal goal.

PipEASY, many thanks for posting your comprehensively annotated charts. Even though I'm a candle and S/R junkie myself, I nonetheless LOVE it when folk show how indicators can be used profitably, because I know that BOTH methods – or even a combo of the two – can be made to work profitably. It really bugs me whenever I read posts saying that "indicators are crap, PA is the only way to go". Having read the PDF in post #1 of this thread, it would seem that eohater uses indys extensively, and assuming that what I've read is true, he's one of FF's most profitable contributors. I know at least half a dozen other profitable traders who use indys, also.

Anyway, keep up the great work, guys. I wish you many more pips.
David
  • #26
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:18pm Feb 21, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting hanover
Now you guys (pipEASY, tiago) have made me feel guilty, because you've generously shared info when I'd decided to bow out of the discussion.

Actually, I think we're all pretty much agreed in principle here, even if we see things from different viewpoints. First and foremost, long term profit is the ultimate goal, and all math aside, it doesn't really matter how each one of us gets there.

What you guys (Tiago, pipEASY) appear to be doing is adding to positions in high probability situations, thereby increasing your winners,...
Your a much more trusting man than I am David. Although I fail to understand the reason why some of the people you mention would lie about their profits I can't bring myself to believe them.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #27
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:28pm Feb 21, 2010 10:28pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Your a much more trusting man than I am David. Although I fail to understand the reason why some of the people you mention would lie about their profits I can't bring myself to believe them.
Leon, if they are lying, then it's upon their own conscience, and it doesn't affect my own bottom line. Hence (and I'm sorry if this sounds uncaring or selfish) it doesn't really bother me.

There is a gent at our local TA group who trades very profitably using indys across multiple time frames. Without actually seeing audited results, I'm as sure as it's humanly possible to be, that he's for real.
  • #28
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:33pm Feb 21, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting hanover
Leon, if they are lying, then it's upon their own conscience, and it doesn't affect my own bottom line. Hence (and I'm sorry if this sounds uncaring or selfish) it doesn't really bother me.

There is a gent at our local TA group who trades very profitably using indys across multiple time frames. Without actually seeing audited results, I'm as sure as it's humanly possible to be, that he's for real.
Well, it sure would cut some time of the learning curve if everyone represented their methods and intentions honestly. But other than that, of course your completely correct.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #29
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:16pm Feb 21, 2010 11:16pm
hanover, leon

Thank you but if you have doubts please say directly.

Not the first time people doubted what I do.

Thought I share my insights today as position building within a trend is bread and butter for me.

Even though I have contributed earnestly I cant help but feel over stepped. Perhaps my lack of vouchers or posts affects my credibility. But its the very reason I stay out of forums. Nice words cannot cover the fact all this is just becomes one big genital measuring contest.

Everyone crying wolf and the real boy gets eaten; I usually spectate across the river just like my trading.

I have deleted all my posts and happy trading all

Regards,

pipEASY
  • #30
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:40pm Feb 21, 2010 11:40pm
Quoting pipEASY
hanover, leon

Thank you but if you have doubts please say directly.

Not the first time people doubted what I do.

Thought I share my insights today as position building within a trend is bread and butter for me.

Even though I have contributed earnestly I cant help but feel over stepped. Perhaps my lack of vouchers or posts affects my credibility. But its the very reason I stay out of forums. Nice words cannot cover the fact all this is just becomes one big genital measuring contest.

Everyone crying wolf and the real boy gets eaten; I...
I was speaking about people in general, that's why I didn't address my post directly toward you. If you have something you think would be of value to the people on this forum then by all means go ahead. I'll be just as interested as the next person if you have something interesting to say.

Regards, Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #31
  • Edited Feb 22, 2010 12:02am Feb 21, 2010 11:51pm | Edited Feb 22, 2010 12:02am
Leon

Now your making me look like as if I over reacted here.
Your last 3 posts between you and hanover was right after my detailed explanation.
Must say its a perfect timing to say such thing and not get the wrong idea.

Would you agree?

I also would like to say only post if you are contributing to the thread.

Your first post here is an assumption that everyone you don't know might be lying.
  • #32
  • Feb 22, 2010 12:21am Feb 22, 2010 12:21am
Quote
Leon

Now your making me look like as if I over reacted here.
Your last 3 posts between you and hanover was right after my detailed explanation.
Must say its a perfect timing to say such thing and not get the wrong idea.

Would you agree?

To be fair I hadn't read your post. I was replying to hanover.

Quote
I also would like to say only post if you are contributing to the thread.

Your first post here is an assumption that everyone you don't know might be lying.

Are you the OP? and that is an assumption I have the right to make.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #33
  • Feb 22, 2010 12:32am Feb 22, 2010 12:32am
Now I feel terrible.

When I replied to Leon, it was aimed generally about people possibly lying about their profit. There are folk here claiming consistent returns of 30% per WEEK. Like i said, it makes no difference to me if they are or they aren't.

PipEASY, I was 100% genuine when I said that I found indicator based charts a refreshing change from all of the PA. I'm really sorry if my comment prompted you to delete your posts. They were very informative, IMHO.

Looks like I should have left the thread some time back, when I said that I would.
  • #34
  • Feb 22, 2010 1:27am Feb 22, 2010 1:27am
hey hanover,

thanks for the comments....i believe we are all here to be better traders...i also believe this particular thread is one of the most important at the moment....there seems to be some bright cats on this forum who really love the business....if you guys are interested and the moderators here allow it i think we should have a private thread just for position sizing where a group of us hard core traders can share ideas and improve upon them, member invite only.....let me know guys, im willing to share but only to a members only private thread along with some skype calls...cheers

Phorex Phreak
  • #35
  • Mar 8, 2010 12:26pm Mar 8, 2010 12:26pm
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  • #36
  • Mar 8, 2010 12:44pm Mar 8, 2010 12:44pm
normal entry on gartley at 868 would give 51 pips
entry 2 at 698 would give 39 pips
entry 3 at 710 would give 27 pips
entry 4 at 713 would give 24 pips

with the anti-martingale the profit from the trade would be 141 pips,the profit from the first entry finances the other entrys

if the first position has no profit,the is nothing to finance the anti-martingale

other entrys explained

entry 2 shapiro illateration
entry 3 small dragon
entry 4 big dragon
  • #37
  • Mar 8, 2010 2:06pm Mar 8, 2010 2:06pm
Worth to try anti martingale during NY session and on some trending pairs like EURJPY, USDJPY, GBPJPY.
But a logic has to be applied also.
  • #38
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:38pm Mar 17, 2010 5:38pm
Another term for anti-martingale is reverse scaling. Also, here's an interesting way to figure how much to scale.
Given one has an edge, it would make sense to scale if one's reason isn't usually sharp enough to take into account a lot of moves between entry and exit, such as in a trade held longer and thus carrying through various interim levels.

Shorter holds often mean higher likelihood of reasoning being simple enough to handle. If the reason works sharply for the time the trade is held but is a bit weak at the moment, I just increase my usable margin or always keep it low enough for such times.
Flat like this is easier for me, in that it leaves time to focus on exiting with a low pip count if I'm wrong about the trade.
  • #39
  • Aug 22, 2010 12:16pm Aug 22, 2010 12:16pm
Given one has an edge,money management and position sizing take center stage.
lets look at the next 10 trades and see how they could be improved.

Trade plan

risk per trade is 200,this could be 1 unit with a 200 pip stop or 200 units with a 1 pip stop,however thinking in terms of R=1 and 1 is 200

we need at least 3 to 1 to have any chance in this game,so lets say the maximum stop will be 50 pips,this gives a position size of 4.
However if we can find a more elegant entry with a smaller stop ie,25
this gives a position size of 8,

Trade management

1 when the trade has moved stop distance,half off stop to brake even

2 use SAR

3 trail stop by market structure,lower lows,higher highs etc

4 look to add to a winning trade

5 ?

------------------------------------------------
So lets look for our first trade,we will look at various markets in various timeframes until we find a promising target,we will then study this market bar by bar,until we get near entry point,then we start dropping down time frames looking for that elegant entry.

Over 10 trades we expect to win 4 and lose 6,so the loss is going to be about 1200,

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  • #40
  • Aug 22, 2010 12:37pm Aug 22, 2010 12:37pm
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