Is FOREX predictable ? | Forex Factory

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Is FOREX predictable ?

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 10, 2010 11:45am Feb 10, 2010 11:45am
Hi guys,

I will post here my analyses and forecasts for some of the most traded currencies (Euro, US Dollar, British Pound, Swiss Frank, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar.

I use technical analysis and Elliott wave Principle, as well as some sentiment indicators.

Hope to be useful.
Good luck.
  • #2
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:54am Feb 10, 2010 11:54am
An example how to manage your trades using Elliott wave Principle.
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  • #3
  • Feb 10, 2010 11:59am Feb 10, 2010 11:59am
I think we're gonna see here some corrective downturn.The first targets that I would point are at 0.71800 and 0.71300. Important support line is the channel's lower shoulder. (Related to the first NZDUSD chart)
After the market made another two thin highs, it reversed and went straight to the target we've set. I hope you've taken this profits. (Related to the second NZDUSD chart)
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  • #4
  • Feb 10, 2010 12:06pm Feb 10, 2010 12:06pm
how can you see the landscape looking your feet ?

how the stream is drawn ?
start with high timeframes, then look on shorter.
  • #5
  • Feb 10, 2010 12:09pm Feb 10, 2010 12:09pm
This USDCHF forecast was made on January 24.
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  • #6
  • Feb 10, 2010 12:12pm Feb 10, 2010 12:12pm
Almost the same happened with US Dollar Index. This analysis was published on the same day (January 24)
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  • #7
  • Feb 10, 2010 12:16pm Feb 10, 2010 12:16pm
A lot more to the downside. Target at 1.2800. Quite a brave forecast, but that's what my analysis shows.
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  • #8
  • Feb 10, 2010 12:36pm Feb 10, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting dinofx
how can you see the landscape looking your feet ?

how the stream is drawn ?
start with high timeframes, then look on shorter.
Yep, sorry. These were only some excerpts of previous forecasts. Of course, you're right. You can not forecast on 30 min. chart, if you haven't seen the ladnscape (daily or weekly chart) before that.
  • #9
  • Feb 10, 2010 3:13pm Feb 10, 2010 3:13pm
great forcast

but more explanesation would be apprecisted

looking forward to more posting
  • #10
  • Feb 12, 2010 5:47pm Feb 12, 2010 5:47pm
Quoting elliottician
Hi guys,

I will post here my analyses and forecasts for some of the most traded currencies (Euro, US Dollar, British Pound, Swiss Frank, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar.

I use technical analysis and Elliott wave Principle, as well as some sentiment indicators.

Hope to be useful.
Good luck.
Good to see you finally started the thread
And I hope you don't mind if I drop by from time to time

Since I obviously know you and your analysis well I will allow myself to address a few words to those peaking here for the first time: Make a note when you see a forecast and then come back some time later to cross check the results - you will find the guy having the habit of being right more than 80% of the time... Which I find quite annoying

Anyway, I know there are lots of guys that enjoy and practice the EW on the factory so I'm sure you will have lots of people to discuss the waves with. Maybe even myself every now and then

Best of luck mate
  • #11
  • Feb 22, 2010 6:59am Feb 22, 2010 6:59am
Thanks mate All I'm trying is to help people who find elliott wave principle and technical analysis useful.

Cheers !
  • #12
  • Feb 22, 2010 7:05am Feb 22, 2010 7:05am
Ok. Now, let's see what are the possibilities to do our profitable mid term trade.

First, it is neccessary to define what the wave pattern is. In our case I call it to be a double ZigZag. And it looks like wave X is done. What we're looking for is a renewed bull market, which is supposed to reach levels above the top of wave W. This is where our forecast begins.

Second, the trendline from the top of wave b is passed. The market topped (wave i) and now it is near its previous bottom at 1.0211. We define that level as a critical. In other words - our stop level.

Third, we should have a confirmation signal, which will give us confidence that our scenario is under way and we can open a long position. That kind of confirmation is a breakthrough of the top of wave i.
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  • #13
  • Feb 22, 2010 7:28am Feb 22, 2010 7:28am
One thing I can predict is that 90% of forex traders lose money....

Other than that? You cannot predict FOREX.

NO WAY NO HOW. I have been there, done that. Automate my trading rules without emotion and still EAs fail mid-long term.
Indicators, Patterns, whatever - all same crap!
  • #14
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:36am Feb 22, 2010 8:36am
Quoting BurgerKing
One thing I can predict is that 90% of forex traders lose money....

Other than that? You cannot predict FOREX.

NO WAY NO HOW. I have been there, done that. Automate my trading rules without emotion and still EAs fail mid-long term.
Indicators, Patterns, whatever - all same crap!
In a way I agree with you. Forecasting methodology that never makes mistakes does not exist. I also agree that most of the forex traders are long term money wasters But buddy, please, if you lose your money so easy, don't think that everyone is doing the same, or with other words - if you can not win, nobody can. But with the rest, again, I totally agree.

Good luck.
  • #15
  • Feb 22, 2010 10:38am Feb 22, 2010 10:38am
I've reported this thread for violation of Rule #3.

Pertinent part below:

"Commercial agendas tend to compromise the integrity of forum discussions and are therefore not permitted. If you make money by servicing Forex traders in any way, shape, or form, or have any commercial agenda whatsoever, you are NOT permitted to post in the forums regardless of whether your posts are promotional or not.

Your charts and profile both reference your website. On the website is subscription services. Therefore your obvious primary agenda is one of a commercial nature.
  • #16
  • Feb 22, 2010 10:56am Feb 22, 2010 10:56am
No, never, nada, in no circumstances - probailities staked in your favour will let you down. You need a plan of attack and defence that works for you that you trade consistently, sang froid and faultless money management.
  • #17
  • Feb 22, 2010 12:26pm Feb 22, 2010 12:26pm
This will be the first and last time I make commentary out of financial markets.

All the charts in this thread are property of the web site. Here we talk about legislation and copyrights.

The forexfactory profile options allow user's website info. The options give you that right. If we consider the forum's options to be a violation...then it is a lovely story

You will not find any links in my thread. The purpose of this thread is not advertising. And if you take a look at the posts you'll see that.

Anyway, legislation, user profile's options and no links. And we talk about commercial purpose funny. But leave it there...this is all crap. The point of the thread is to present forex analysis and forecasts. People who are interested in other things are everywhere. They should find their happiness somehow

Best regards
  • #18
  • Feb 24, 2010 1:37pm Feb 24, 2010 1:37pm
The chart and the forecast that you're gonna see were made only using technical analysis and Elliott wave Principle. No news, no Central banks's statement.

Having this chart by our side, gave us a forecast, scenario, stop level and a confirmation, which was suppose to show in which moment the scenario is confirmed and to give us more confidence that our forecast is about to come true.

Two days later USDJPY fell and hit the target. 460 pips in two days.
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  • #19
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:48am Mar 8, 2010 3:48am
You can find rallies even in messy corrections. You'll be able to that only if you follow the market in every step, adjust your analysis and wait for so called risk-free opportunities. Of course there is nothing like risk free thing in our life, but we, technicians have a special sentiment to third waves. They are the strongest, the most volatile, and of course - the most profitable opportunities on the market.

Thursday, March 04. A forecast (chart 1).
US Dollar Index - Rally.
It seems that the market is headed for another rally. Target at 80.90. Critical level at 79.83.

Brief, but exact. It was one of those opportunities, that have only 10% risk. We've had wave i (five waves in it), then appropriate three-waves correction for wave ii, and a breakthrough of the top of wave i. In the language of conservative elliotticians that means that wave iii is in action. And we don't miss them.

That is what happened. The market reached our target (chart 2).

Good luck.
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  • #20
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:14am Mar 8, 2010 6:14am
Quoting Deusomega
I've reported this thread for violation of Rule #3.

Pertinent part below:

"Commercial agendas tend to compromise the integrity of forum discussions and are therefore not permitted. If you make money by servicing Forex traders in any way, shape, or form, or have any commercial agenda whatsoever, you are NOT permitted to post in the forums regardless of whether your posts are promotional or not.

Your charts and profile both reference your website. On the website is subscription services. Therefore your obvious primary agenda is...
Yeah great job there Douchemega...got this gem moved to a forum where so few new traders could ever learn something so valuable.

God.. people like you man. Where do u get off?
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