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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #217,621
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:00pm Mar 5, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting dean walker
Ok fellows give the monster hell made my 81 pips and getting out not to piss this big boy too much..
Happy trading
Dean
Who are you trying to fool? The maximum retracement was 60 pips, so with your 7 pip spread the maximum you could have is 53 pips.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #217,622
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:11pm Mar 5, 2010 1:11pm
they already had support in place @ 132.95/133.15 since early tuesday... what we have seen for the rest of the week was classical accumulation. confirmation for longs was break of 133.80 from wednesday.

we are heading up for now. support is currently @ 133.15/133.45... but will move up slowly next week, and i do not intend to short until i see signs of distribution. if it's 139... 141... or even 148, remains to be seen.

bottom line is, geppy is in bullish mode for now. so "buy all dips" is the word .

Quoting ukdaytrader
Congrats to all longs, but there is bugger-all volume in this upmove. This means one of 2 things:

1, Big dogs offloaded their shorts last week and went long at higher prices as GY fell.

OR

2, Big dogs exited their shorts last week and went into wait and see mode.

I would vote 2, which flies in the face of this PA, but I would not risk longs right now.

As RG has been saying, looks like a case of big boys wanting a better price to short from.

Let's see..
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #217,623
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:41pm Mar 5, 2010 1:41pm
okay.
Quoting Scrat
they already had support in place @ 132.95/133.15 since early tuesday... what we have seen for the rest of the week was classical accumulation. confirmation for longs was break of 133.80 from wednesday.

we are heading up for now. support is currently @ 133.15/133.45... but will move up slowly next week, and i do not intend to short until i see signs of distribution. if it's 139... 141... or even 148, remains to be seen.

bottom line is, geppy is in bullish mode for now. so "buy all dips" is the word .
  • #217,624
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:46pm Mar 5, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting Scrat
they already had support in place @ 132.95/133.15 since early tuesday... what we have seen for the rest of the week was classical accumulation. confirmation for longs was break of 133.80 from wednesday.

we are heading up for now. support is currently @ 133.15/133.45... but will move up slowly next week, and i do not intend to short until i see signs of distribution. if it's 139... 141... or even 148, remains to be seen.

bottom line is, geppy is in bullish mode for now. so "buy all dips" is the word .
Normally I would agree, but volumes this week have been considerably lighter than last. We do have a base just below 133 and the PA doesn't lie. Neither though does the volume.

I sometimes use your Market Profiler in conjunction with volume and although 134 has indeed been this week's action area, the volumes there have been thin. To me, looks like big players stepping aside temporarily.....

Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: scrat.gif Size: 23 KB


But you're right, for now buy dips is the way to go.
  • #217,625
  • Mar 5, 2010 4:46pm Mar 5, 2010 4:46pm
i always use market profiler, but am only interested in pvp and vwap.

as per your observation about volume: yes, they are lower comparing to other weeks. but keep in mind that we are trading "intra-week", so from my point of view we should only look back to the beginning of the week.

so... the profile for current week showed that a support was put in place early tuesday (look at the weekly pvp, it jumped straight to 132.98, then 133.15...), and a possible retrace would follow to the upside. which happened. now, where does it stop? we'll see next week. but first we need to see another period of distribution/accumulation for the intra-week profile - or at least a day with a huge volume distribution at its high... and then we'll know resumption of downtrend is around the corner.

i am attaching two charts, profile for the current week + profile for the current day. my vote would be for continuation of rally. 139... 141... 148 - i'll know when i see peaks on volume histogram.
however, today's profile is a little tricky - tick histogram shows a peak @ 136.70, so i would be careful going long from here.
- if price goes below that area, then i would go for a test of 133.80 and then we'll see from there.
- if price continues up, then 139 and 141 are next.


Quoting ukdaytrader
Normally I would agree, but volumes this week have been considerably lighter than last. We do have a base just below 133 and the PA doesn't lie. Neither though does the volume.

I sometimes use your Market Profiler in conjunction with volume and although 134 has indeed been this week's action area, the volumes there have been thin. To me, looks like big players stepping aside temporarily.....

Chart
Attachment

But you're right, for now buy dips is the way to go.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g-j_weekly_profile.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: g-j_daily_profile.gif Size: 20 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #217,626
  • Edited 5:29am Mar 6, 2010 4:13am | Edited 5:29am
Quoting Scrat

however, today's profile is a little tricky - tick histogram shows a peak @ 136.70, so i would be careful going long from here.
- if price goes below that area, then i would go for a test of 133.80 and then we'll see from there.
- if price continues up, then 139 and 141 are next.
i hope it does drop from there or im screwed. got stuck in short from 134.25 and 135.35 and dont have the room for it to go to 139.

so im praying for some sort of real bad news to come out over the weekend to send the pound down, cos complete lack of significant pound news next week will probably see it continue up more on the 'no news is good news' basis than anything else.

Pivot will be at 135.79 for Sunday so even a test of that and ill probably ditch it and go long from there, (gotta be a decent chance right??? but thats a good 80 pips down from where it closed and 120 from the high ). if it goes straight up im fukd.
  • #217,627
  • Edited 8:03am Mar 6, 2010 6:21am | Edited 8:03am
Just thinking out loud here: I have been watching the VIX (Volatility S&P 500) where it is currently at 17.42 and had not been except briefly in January before the Greek mess, and before early 2008. This is a good indicator on future risk sentiment so I find this at an important level.

Now the USD because of it's low interest rate and safe-haven status seemed to complement the JPY as a carry currency. That seems to be changing as perceived interest rate hikes for USD in the next six months to a year is starting to be factored in...which could signal the carry trades in USD will start being scaled back and replaced with JPY once again. USD/JPY will look to start strengthening bringing along JPY crosses that produced alpha in a risk-appetite market. So what does this mean? Well for me I would look at some of the medium-term trends in bearish JPY crosses to reverse the bear to bull trends this year....But before this I would expect PA to overextend itself to new lows before position accumulation to occur for the new bull run in the JPY crosses...

Concerning GBP/JPY, I see our medium-term bear trend is still happening so I will position myself accordingly but I am starting to accumulate very small bullish positions in USD/JPY and in GBP/JPY when it gets around 130. Previous PA has shown that these levels were reached only in 1995 and 2009 so probabilities favor a rise from these levels unless we have another sigma9 event which even then PA spike low to 120 on Jan. 2 last year...

For the short-term we might see GBP/JPY in the next few days reach 138.5 or 140, with a new bear swing down to 1.30....

Just some thoughts...
Traderdesk -
  • #217,628
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:20am Mar 6, 2010 9:20am
Quoting Scrat
they already had support in place @ 132.95/133.15 since early tuesday... what we have seen for the rest of the week was classical accumulation. confirmation for longs was break of 133.80 from wednesday.

we are heading up for now. support is currently @ 133.15/133.45... but will move up slowly next week, and i do not intend to short until i see signs of distribution. if it's 139... 141... or even 148, remains to be seen.

bottom line is, geppy is in bullish mode for now. so "buy all dips" is the word .
.
history is at work bro
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #217,629
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:22am Mar 6, 2010 9:22am
Quoting ewokuk
i hope it does drop from there or im screwed. got stuck in short from 134.25 and 135.35 and dont have the room for it to go to 139.

so im praying for some sort of real bad news to come out over the weekend to send the pound down, cos complete lack of significant pound news next week will probably see it continue up more on the 'no news is good news' basis than anything else.

Pivot will be at 135.79 for Sunday so even a test of that and ill probably ditch it and go long from there, (gotta be a decent chance right??? but thats a good 80 pips down...

if u use higher tf u wont have entered that short..daily was oversold with historical support...just close at entry point some more room to go up IMHO...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #217,630
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:48am Mar 6, 2010 10:48am
Quoting donfriday
if u use higher tf u wont have entered that short..daily was oversold with historical support...just close at entry point some more room to go up IMHO...
close at entry point?!?! id love to, it has to get there first and thats 200 pips down!
  • #217,631
  • Mar 6, 2010 11:06am Mar 6, 2010 11:06am
Dear trader,

do any one know where I can find chart software contain fibo spiral?

Thanks
  • #217,632
  • Edited 11:30pm Mar 6, 2010 11:10am | Edited 11:30pm
Yes there are further bull fear overhead while few shorts still there tried antitrend pending through orders to work last time in friday. Anyway not so worried about .

First taking a look to the chart M5.price to close above 136.96 break above 1.36.03 or not should complete a sell signal complete & try to move down .

next M30 , buy set perfection & cd 9 running , min 2hrs or more need to close price below 136.67 to the next support 136.57 & if not hold can go through resistant though support at 136.34 to next support 135.90 , may coincide with M5 selling.

In h1 just completed buysetup perfection so have min min 13 hrs to move around up & down before it has a buy signal .here again a round bottom & cup should be complete & handle formation due before bull continuation.


Next h4 , the main pioneer of the bull before eventually cancelled by premature bull action during NFP & ultimately developed a bear set up perfection buy days end. so there will be min 13 or more H4 candles to have bear signal complete if not cancelled that too , lots of time having up& down around the top areas can be expected.

Weekly remain the same , price to back keylevels below 134.64 & 132,00 , this week or that week.

the upside movements can be limited than thought ,138.73 /139.60.

will check what actually happened monday morning.
fontu
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #217,633
  • Mar 6, 2010 11:13am Mar 6, 2010 11:13am
I think GJ will fall to 135.04 then take another long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ.jpg Size: 45 KB
  • #217,634
  • Mar 6, 2010 2:02pm Mar 6, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting maanawi
I think GJ will fall to 135.04 then take another long

agree with you
  • #217,635
  • Mar 6, 2010 2:17pm Mar 6, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting Sam 991
agree with you
yea for me its seem to do head and 2 shoulder as its reverse from the fibo 50% of day 25 February.
  • #217,636
  • Mar 6, 2010 2:22pm Mar 6, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting maanawi
yea for me its seem to do head and 2 shoulder as its reverse from the fibo 50% of day 25 February.
so a little correction: the target of short of GJ will be 134.95
  • #217,637
  • Mar 7, 2010 4:48am Mar 7, 2010 4:48am
Quoting maanawi
so a little correction: the target of short of GJ will be 134.95
135 is not a little correction, its 200 pips down which is an entire days average range IF it goes straight down from the open. i cant see it dropping straight down 200 pips tomorrow unless something happens to hammer the pound again.

if anything i think it might go straight up and screw me over once asia gets their chance to react to nfp. unless they see the big rally as a nice chance to sell but i doubt it.

id be satisfied with a touch of the pivot at 135.79 but im not even sure itll get to 136 nevermind 135.79
  • #217,638
  • Mar 7, 2010 5:31am Mar 7, 2010 5:31am
I'm waiting as well.

I shorted GBP/JPY at 136.80, so hoping for it to at least hit 136.00 before another move up.

My opinion is that even though it's looking pretty bullish at the moment, price will have to retrace a little first from last Friday's big rally to bring in new buyers to bring the price higher.
  • #217,639
  • Mar 7, 2010 5:43am Mar 7, 2010 5:43am
Quoting ewokuk
135 is not a little correction, its 200 pips down which is an entire days average range IF it goes straight down from the open. i cant see it dropping straight down 200 pips tomorrow unless something happens to hammer the pound again.

if anything i think it might go straight up and screw me over once asia gets their chance to react to nfp. unless they see the big rally as a nice chance to sell but i doubt it.

id be satisfied with a touch of the pivot at 135.79 but im not even sure itll get to 136 nevermind 135.79
Hello Ewokuk,

I didnt mean on opening we will see ~ 200 pips drop but I'm talking about the early coming rang for this week, well after doing another studies on the chart it confirm the limits in case of bearish we have these targets :135.37 and 134.90
and if it long on the opening price will reverse from 137.45.
  • #217,640
  • Mar 7, 2010 5:48am Mar 7, 2010 5:48am
Quoting maanawi
Dear trader,

do any one know where I can find chart software contain fibo spiral?

Thanks
Hope you have asked for this.
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