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Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

  • #421
  • Mar 2, 2010 9:52am Mar 2, 2010 9:52am
Australia raises rates.

Canada post positive GDP growth.

And these damn first days of March are making it a touch difficult to see thru on the continued theme that 'risk is off'.

Dollar is at or near its highs...and gees..has to roll over here soon I imagine.

Markets continues to push higher... NFP coming this week...

Razor...any thoughts/view on how we are shaping up?
  • #422
  • Mar 2, 2010 10:14am Mar 2, 2010 10:14am
Quoting Stock_Rocket
Australia raises rates.

Canada post positive GDP growth.

And these damn first days of March are making it a touch difficult to see thru on the continued theme that 'risk is off'.

Dollar is at or near its highs...and gees..has to roll over here soon I imagine.

Markets continues to push higher... NFP coming this week...

Razor...any thoughts/view on how we are shaping up?

Yes, you right Stock_Rocket, it is better to have his opinion about AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, etc, etc.

I am sure others have good or fair knowledge above mentioned pairs and market in general, but Razor can always connects the situation with fundamental analysis.
-happyTrading-myFx.
  • #423
  • Mar 2, 2010 10:26am Mar 2, 2010 10:26am
Let's set this straight. Central Banks are not in the position to set trends. Period. Many may not know this but Central Banks has been known to lose billions speculating the forex market. Go figure.

Many Central Banks are known to intervene in the foreign exchange market to weaken or strenghten their currency to favor their economic flavor of the moment. Good example is Japan. However, can anyone tell me, - please include facts and evidence - that BOJ is so capable as to set trends with its frequent intervention?

As it is forex is a huge market, unless the Central Banks are printing lots of money to play around the forex market (guess the country would really take a beating with hyperinflation then!), which I can guarantee you is very unlikely.

And oh, the most famous speculator of all, George Soros who made over $1 billion betting against the sterling has also lost as much as $600m in a single position. Anyone knew that?

All said, a country's fundamentals is important and it is the supply and demand based on a myriad of things that eventually set the trends, not a single (or a few) entity. That's the reason why flow analysis is important (where money is flowing from which country to which other country...)

Hope this makes sense.
  • #424
  • Mar 2, 2010 11:04am Mar 2, 2010 11:04am
All said, a country's fundamentals is important and it is the supply and demand based on a myriad of things that eventually set the trends, not a single (or a few) entity.

This is exactly premise (or super close) on which this thread was originally created - and in turn - the reason it has such value.

The understanding of these components - and how they fit together in given time frames.
  • #425
  • Mar 2, 2010 11:05am Mar 2, 2010 11:05am
do not forget GJ its on new low 131.46 - nearly -
  • #426
  • Mar 2, 2010 11:09am Mar 2, 2010 11:09am
Quoting hohgch
And oh, the most famous speculator of all, George Soros who made over $1 billion betting against the sterling has also lost as much as $600m in a single position. Anyone knew that?
Soros & the sterling, very interesting story

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

The trading losses in August and September were estimated at £800m, but the main loss to taxpayers arose because the devaluation could have made them a profit. The papers show that if the government had maintained $24bn foreign currency reserves and the pound had fallen by the same amount, the UK would have made a £2.4bn profit on sterling's devaluation.[1] Newspapers also revealed that the Treasury spent £27bn of reserves in propping up the pound.
...
The pound entered the mechanism at DM 2.95 to the pound. Hence, if the exchange rate ever neared the bottom of its permitted range, DM 2.778, the government would be obliged to intervene. With UK inflation at three times the rate of Germany's, interest rates at 15% and the "Lawson Boom" about to bust, the conditions for joining the ERM were not favourable at that time.
...
From the beginning of the 1990s, high German interest rates, set by the Bundesbank to counteract inflationary effects related to excess expenditure on German reunification, caused significant stress across the whole of the ERM. The UK and Italy had additional difficulties with their double deficits, while the UK was also hurt by the rapid depreciation of the US Dollar - a currency in which many British exports were priced - that summer. Issues of national prestige and the commitment to a doctrine that the fixing of exchange rates within the ERM was a pathway to a single European currency inhibited the adjustment of exchange rates.
...
The UK's prime minister and cabinet members tried all day to prop up a sinking pound and withdrawal from the monetary system the country had joined two years prior was the last resort. Prime Minister Major raised interest rates from 10 to 12 percent, then to 15, and he authorised the spending of billions of pounds to buy up the sterling being frantically sold on the currency markets.
But the measures failed to prevent the pound falling lower than its minimum level in the ERM.
...
The effect of the high German interest rates, and high British interest rates, had been arguably to put Britain into recession as large numbers of businesses failed and the housing market crashed. Some commentators, following Norman Tebbit, took to referring to ERM as an "Eternal Recession Mechanism"[5] after the UK fell into recession during the early 1990s. Whilst many people in the UK recall 'Black Wednesday' as a national disaster, it is ironic that the forced ejection from the ERM paved the way for an economic revival, the Conservatives handing Tony Blair's New Labour a much stronger economy in 1997 than had existed in 1992.This has prompted some commentators to re-label 16 September 1992 as White Wednesday[6].
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #427
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:11pm Mar 2, 2010 2:11pm
In the short time following/learning.......... and even contributing - where I feel I could - this thread quickly became a part of my daily/nightly trading regement.

Only thing is.........we are missing the insights of its creator!

Razor!...common back !!

many things to discuss.....this is already shaping up to be a crazy week...let alone a crazy world! Forex aside!

lets get back atter!
  • #428
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:25pm Mar 2, 2010 2:25pm
Wow.

GBP getting killed ....and (at some point - and pending of course) will be
an absolute buy opp of a lifetime - In line with Razor's theories/feelings that as we move forward - considering that the U.S will raise rates long before Japan - and that the Carry trade will (is?) shifting to see the Yen as its "short side" as opposed to the dollar.

Do some math short termers...imagine a buy of GBP/JPY at 130...or even this moment at 132.76.

Only 5 short months ago it was 150!....so lets see....5 months trading ..2000 pips..hmm.......scale in with 1..er 2 contracts.

Hey...hurt yourselves thinkin bout this....160!

Take your moving average crossovers EA's etc.....and tell me you've got that kinda record over last 5 months...or ever.

HENCE - RAZOR = WISDOM = RESPECT = PIPS!

thats this thread...no need to prove anything to anyone..just good ol, straight up, ol fashioned...............GOLD!

lets get back to it............over to you Razor....Razor?....Razor?
  • #429
  • Mar 2, 2010 4:43pm Mar 2, 2010 4:43pm
Ever notice that CNBC is almost 100% bias to the bull 'long end' in equities?

Gee..I wonder why....who viewing at home wants to hear an endless barage of negativity about their countries economy....and the downward moves in their favorite stocks.

I find it very interesting...not to mention completely liberating..to be able to walk by a TV in the mall ...hear a bunch of blowhards touting buy buy buy....buy now buy now!

And just snicker....tee hee hee.......with my fundamentals in my front pocket...and my fat trades making nothin but coin.

CNBC is nothin but a 1 hour countertrend in a daily...no wait.......a 4h counter...in a daily........no wait........a daily in weekly....no.........its a weekly counter in a monthly.

get it???????????/

their is no such thing as short term trading... short of having lightning speed computers....endless capital..and the complete and total knowledge that - on the other side of your trade - is a college kid who heard forex was cool.

Razor is the way....

turn off your TV people...and learn.
  • #430
  • Mar 2, 2010 6:53pm Mar 2, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting Stock_Rocket
Ever notice that CNBC is almost 100% bias to the bull 'long end' in equities?
That's correct. Most investors would have money placed in equities or mutual funds. This means LONG only mostly. So which sucker would like to hear the bad news? If if nobody is watching CNBC and Cramer, where's the ad money coming from?

Fundamentals. Show Me The Money!

p.s. I am sure Razor will be back. Give him some time. It is sometimes heart wrecking that help is extended but not appreciated.
  • #431
  • Mar 4, 2010 5:04pm Mar 4, 2010 5:04pm
Oil reserves up......demand down..OIL UP.

Gold and AUD up

CAD waaaaaay up!

and the dollar way up.....all correlations thrown out the window.

Once again flying in the face of pure fundamentals the markets are most certainly shrugging it off..and the buying continues.

Personally...I think its light volume last breathe pump it up up up before diving back into what is and SHOULD BE HAPPENING.

RISK AVERSION and the the continued pressure on Commod's and related currencies? no?...this last week has made this a very difficult trade to stick with.
  • #432
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:54am Mar 5, 2010 1:54am
Let's show a little independence, keep this thread going and show razor we've learned from him .
Now what does everyone think about pounds?
  • #433
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:42am Mar 5, 2010 9:42am
Quoting TGpop
Let's show a little independence, keep this thread going and show razor we've learned from him .
Now what does everyone think about pounds?
My outlook on the sterling is not rosy. Fundamentally, the UK may be the next country that is put in the cross hair. Like after Dubai? Who's next? Greek. OK. Who's next? Like musical chairs.

I believe a lot of Europe including UK is faced with a lot of issues, ranging from financial (deficits, growth, etc.) to social (immigration comes to mind).

There is also an election coming on this year, so it is also faced with a political situation (a hung parliament).

Cable's low was 1.3500. So still a lot of downside.
  • #434
  • Mar 5, 2010 10:40am Mar 5, 2010 10:40am
looking at cable monthly, can't help but notice this level we are approaching, major,major,major support here- maybe this is where the bank of england steps in as it doesn't want the pound to plummet? who knows but im selling pounds and targeting this area...
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  • #435
  • Mar 7, 2010 1:38am Mar 7, 2010 1:38am
Quoting TGpop
looking at cable monthly, can't help but notice this level we are approaching, major,major,major support here- maybe this is where the bank of england steps in as it doesn't want the pound to plummet? who knows but im selling pounds and targeting this area...

TGpop, I wish we didn't have thread wreckers so razor can give you are good answer.
IMO GBP is already recovering some value, this week it will continue to gain straight against all the major currencies.
  • #436
  • Mar 7, 2010 6:32am Mar 7, 2010 6:32am
Quoting Razorjack
First of all, I am not a "guru", never claimed to be. I am not paid to be here, nor am I here to sell anything.

People post on forums for different reasons, some post because they want to learn, others because they just want to socialize, there are some that post because they want to confirm their views of the world even though it doesn't help them in their trading and there even some that post because they find comfort in knowing that they are not the only ones losing money in the markets. Then there are the few that are genuinely interested...
Dear Mr Rozar,

thanks a lot for all your work!

I read your thread from the first post to last, you do the great. I think you don't need reply all of the questions, you only discuss the problem which confused you. In this way, you can reach the target of your thread.

I'm learning sme time to be a position trader, and maybe we can discuss some thing when you come back.

Do what you think right, keep yourself happy!

Regards!

SEEDO
  • #437
  • Mar 7, 2010 6:16pm Mar 7, 2010 6:16pm
silver respect.
What can i say no one likes threats...
Anyway as long as my post exist here and i am thread wrecker I'd like to ask u about one thing.

Back to my metaphore :

Do u know who is human ?
if u know answer for that question u would be know real "trend creators".
Whose money is this ?
urs - no
ur employer - no
government - no
corporation - also no
central banks - hell no
then whose ?
  • #438
  • Mar 7, 2010 8:32pm Mar 7, 2010 8:32pm
Quoting 5ysfx
silver respect.
What can i say no one likes threats...
Anyway as long as my post exist here and i am thread wrecker I'd like to ask u about one thing.

Back to my metaphore :

Do u know who is human ?
if u know answer for that question u would be know real "trend creators".
Whose money is this ?
urs - no
ur employer - no
government - no
corporation - also no
central banks - hell no
then whose ?


I know the answer...that is your Mother's..heheheheheheheh
  • #439
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:05am Mar 8, 2010 3:05am
Such a shame how this thread has ended up. At least we got 27 pages to learn from and RJ (if you're still reading) thanks again for your efforts and broadening our view.
  • #440
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:02am Mar 8, 2010 4:02am
dear mr Razor,

im new here and not so new in trading. however i have been having so much hard time in getting any profit out of the market. and i always staying away from fundamental news/analysis. the thread you've provided has been an eye opener for me. its the missing link that i needed but was afraid to even consider attempting to understand it. now that i know how important it is, i am surely will learn more about it.

thank you soooo much! please continue such a great work.
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