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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #101
  • Mar 5, 2010 5:22am Mar 5, 2010 5:22am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Here is another one on order flow:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=83
Lol..Another good one. His explaination sounds a lot like what the no brainer boys are doing with S/R.

If he's not watching a chart then he's watching time and sales. As he said, it's no secret. Time and sales gives you volume at price, and orderflow is concerned with consumption of liquidity which is the epitomy and purpose of the tape. This pretty much rules out the use of DOM, other than watching for deep liquidity that does not get cancelled and is allowed to get consumed. If the big players need liquidity, DOM is where they will find it. But the tape will tell you what IS happening, you just need to know what is normal and whats not, getting back to the point of my last post.
  • #102
  • Mar 10, 2010 1:20am Mar 10, 2010 1:20am
OK I haven't finished reading this thread yet, but I want to weigh in on a few things...

First off, this has to be one of the best threads I've seen in a LONG time. You all seem to have really thought about the subject and for the most part you all have your shit together. Your problem now is that you’re over thinking it.

The point of the things that I wrote (some of which were total bullshit to throw you off the easy path BTW) were to get you to do exactly what you've done; think... work... focus on yourselves... and study every shimmy and wiggle in the price for weeks and months at a time. Now you need to let go.

Scotty man, you are SOOOO close. You have already stated the answer to your problem in a number of different ways, you just haven't bought into it. Stop thinking and analyzing... just relax and trade what you see.

I'm gonna throw up a chart. I hate doing it because people who haven't done all that you have will look at it and get stupid, but I think you need it to get past this hump...

http://www.darkstarforex.com/chart.png

This is a real trade that I have on right now. Your smart enough to figure out what’s going on. And aside from basic financial news from WSJ, bloomberg.com and CNBC, this chart contains ALL the information that went into the decision to execute those orders. I have orders just like it on every major and the entries look just as spectacular.

PS- To answer your conundrum about the girl in the bar... respect will get you about as far as offering to buy her a drink. You’re still thinking like everyone else. It’s like debating the difference between an RSI and a MA. What you really need to do is sometimes counterintuitive...

Treat her like a worthless whore and she'll be begging you to take her home with you. Check out my profile for a case in point.
  • #103
  • Mar 10, 2010 3:19am Mar 10, 2010 3:19am
Fascinating Thread I must say.

Is there really a definitive perspective to the market? We all certainly hope so. But thinking about it; The moment there is a definitive perspective, it no longer is the market.

Just ranting.
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #104
  • Mar 10, 2010 4:14am Mar 10, 2010 4:14am
Quoting Darkstar
To answer your conundrum about the girl in the bar... respect will get you about as far as offering to buy her a drink. You’re still thinking like everyone else. It’s like debating the difference between an RSI and a MA. What you really need to do is sometimes counterintuitive... [/font][/color]

Treat her like a worthless whore and she'll be begging you to take her home with you. Check out my profile for a case in point.
Few understand this "tactic" , you should join us for a night in town here in Oslo
Measure twice, cut once
  • #105
  • Edited 6:45am Mar 10, 2010 6:32am | Edited 6:45am
Quoting aediaz1
Few understand this "tactic" , you should join us for a night in town here in Oslo
It's the whole mindset that matters. It's not enough to just talk the game - you really have to believe it and yes it's refreshing to see that a few get it. Just a few lol.
  • #106
  • Mar 10, 2010 6:50am Mar 10, 2010 6:50am
Quoting Darkstar

The point of the things that I wrote (some of which were total bullshit to throw you off the easy path BTW) were to get you to do exactly what you've done; think... work... focus on yourselves... and study every shimmy and wiggle in the price for weeks and months at a time. Now you need to let go.

The bit about having friends inside of a bank? Maybe?
  • #107
  • Mar 10, 2010 10:17am Mar 10, 2010 10:17am
Quoting Deusomega
The bit about having friends inside of a bank? Maybe?
Its up to you to decide which clues are red herrings and which are critical to the methodology.
  • #108
  • Mar 10, 2010 11:05am Mar 10, 2010 11:05am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Bad reason's (IMO) include:

  1. These MA's crossed
  2. The trend is up/down
  3. This price was supported/resisted last time
  4. The Xfib drawn from points Z and Y indicates sausages

These reasons are not relevant to the current reality of the market. Price doesn't accelerate upward or downward BECAUSE of a technical study and because something happened in the past doesn't make it likely to happen in the future.

I don't agree with that. Price action is nothing more than the sum of all the participants in the market. Obviously a previous support/resistance, fibo line, etc. does not mean anything in itself, but if enough market participants act according to that "pre-established knowledge" so to speak, the price will move accordingly. A lot of times it won't work, but it's really the only way to tip the scale in your favour in any given trade and get something more than a 50/50 chance, at least IMO.
  • #109
  • Mar 10, 2010 11:07am Mar 10, 2010 11:07am
Quoting Darkstar
OK I haven't finished reading this thread yet, but I want to weigh in on a few things...

First off, this has to be one of the best threads I've seen in a LONG time. You all seem to have really thought about the subject and for the most part you all have your shit together. Your problem now is that you’re over thinking it.

[color=black][font=Verdana]The point of the things that I wrote (some of which were total bullshit to throw you off the easy path BTW) were to...
Hey Darkstar,

Thanks for stopping by man, I appreciate it. No matter what the method of entry, a successful trade is all about finding value. I beleive that's what you are getting at. By value I mean discount pricing, the value is only truly visible after price proves you correct.

I am relived to see you staying in the market. I've had this underlying fear that using order flow to trade meant getting in an out of the market for 20 or 30 pip movements every now and then when the conditions were right. Also, I like seeing that you trade with conviction as evidenced by the brief DD you took on with your first entry.

I'm speculating here (pardon the pun), but based on your chart I beleive that order flow trading to you lies in understanding what TYPES of orders are being executed in the context of market values. It's obvious what was happening on those long bars which occurred in a value zone i.e. discount pricing.

I zoomed out and found strong daily S/R right where you entered and the trend had been up. I'm wondering if you are using simple TA that we all know along with your understanding of order flow acting as a filter or confirmation tool that it's time to enter.

Options data would only be icing on the cake. If you know what the guys with the big bank rolls are thinking via options data, and this is confirmed with order flow you'd pretty much be golden. Maybe I shouldn't babble like this publicly, but as I've found out, it's far from easy to be able to see or understand this stuff.

I'll try to back off a little bit in the over-thinking and focus more on the practical side of things. Thanks again for correcting my trajectory a little bit, I truly appreciate it.

I definitely have some more work to do, and I hope you keep a watchful eye and continue to give guidance in the future.

Scotty
  • #110
  • Mar 10, 2010 11:39am Mar 10, 2010 11:39am
The daily S/R and Dec21-23 swing low was compelling wasn't it. I thought about that as well. Round numbers as well.
  • #111
  • Mar 10, 2010 11:45am Mar 10, 2010 11:45am
Quoting Scotty B
I zoomed out ...
Not to be nit picky, and perhaps I am missing the point, but according to the man himself, just about all the info needed to make the trading decision was represented in the chart itself. No need to zoom out perhaps.
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #112
  • Mar 10, 2010 12:00pm Mar 10, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting Scotty B
I am relived to see you staying in the market. I've had this underlying fear that using order flow to trade meant getting in an out of the market for 20 or 30 pip movements every now and then when the conditions were right. Also, I like seeing that you trade with conviction as evidenced by the brief DD you took on with your first entry.
Orderflow trading is a mindset. Once you have the mindset, finding inefficiencies becomes easy. There are many ways to use it intraday to collect 20-30 pips at a clip, (and this useto be my primary income generator) but you can also use it to take longer term trades as are highlighted in my chart.

Quoting Scotty B
I'm speculating here (pardon the pun), but based on your chart I beleive that order flow trading to you lies in understanding what TYPES of orders are being executed in the context of market values. It's obvious what was happening on those long bars which occurred in a value zone i.e. discount pricing.
The discount in and of itself is meaningless. As we all know the market can remain irrational far longer then you can remain solvent. Its all about FUTURE ORDERS.
  • #113
  • Edited 1:07pm Mar 10, 2010 12:21pm | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting Darkstar
Orderflow trading is a mindset.
Quoting jpat1023
...get people to 'think' in terms of order flow when looking at a chart.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=583

Nice to hear some confirmation of sentiment
  • #114
  • Mar 10, 2010 12:41pm Mar 10, 2010 12:41pm
Stating the obvious and learning...

If you have a HUGE order and you want to go long, the best time to get that order in would be when everyone is selling, i.e. in the large down move. To buy in a huge down move almost seems crazy, unless you have a good idea the market is changing direction or going to change soon. In that case it makes perfect sense since you can take advantage of the short order flow and work in a the long orders.

So, I guess one would have to have an idea when the market is about to turn or the FUTURE movement. The only thing I can think of to give you that is Fundamentals. Interest rates and what is going on in the countries economically. Maybe something like COT reports to see the large players and institutions shifting their money from short to long. I know little to nothing about options, but I've heard they can be used a 'insurance' or to hedge while you work in an order or in case your timing is wrong, etc, etc.

If all countries take turns being the weak currency then strong currency, then I guess knowing when those changes are being made could get you into the future trend changes at or near the turning points and/or the fairly early stages of development.

just my random thoughts...
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #115
  • Mar 10, 2010 12:47pm Mar 10, 2010 12:47pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Stating the obvious and learning...

If you have a HUGE order and you want to go long, the best time to get that order in would be when everyone is selling, i.e. in the large down move....
Good thoughts. But like Darkstar said its a mindset that can be applied to the short term and the long term. Whereas what you are talking about seems more long term only. And it seems like this is focusing on the discount part again a value judgment. Whereas if you can also use this mindset to grab 20-30 pip movements with tighter stops it seems like in that short term focused arena fundamentals are really meaningless.
  • #116
  • Mar 10, 2010 12:54pm Mar 10, 2010 12:54pm
ding ding ding - timeout
-----------------------

you all got it wrong. all you need to know to be profitable is written
below, don't believe me? ask any professional trader what he does
each and every day, here it is ... the one and only edge, the holy of
holiness:

enter b < a 51% + $$ u p !? bla exit

down support blow up account flow order out of off the chart

random bla Pee-A bla BJ BB AA fold none

one two sold gold ... no hold

tick tock loss win win loss gross

up downtown around turntrip flip slip the spread split

future hedge no edge ... nooooo ... crash ... need more cash

--------
continue
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #117
  • Mar 10, 2010 1:00pm Mar 10, 2010 1:00pm
Yeah I'll take what you are smoking.
  • #118
  • Mar 10, 2010 1:03pm Mar 10, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting Deusomega
Yeah I'll take what you are smoking.
you smoke beer?
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #119
  • Mar 10, 2010 1:27pm Mar 10, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting silverheat
you smoke beer?
Hmm sorry to be sarcastic but maybe you could explain your puzzle...
  • #120
  • Mar 10, 2010 1:34pm Mar 10, 2010 1:34pm
Quoting Scotty B
No matter what the method of entry, a successful trade is all about finding value.
This is a key point IMO...trading around value.

Also:

Quoting silverheat
up downtown around turntrip flip slip the spread split
Nick, Nack, Patty Wack... time for Silver to take a little nap!
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