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Silent Service Method

  • #7,381
  • Mar 3, 2010 11:15am Mar 3, 2010 11:15am
Quoting samer960
chris
any comment about this pair . it has broken all time high in almost 10 years !! it shows a bearish butterfly !
would like to hear your comment about this pair
thanks
samer
Samer,

I pulled a lot of fibs on that daily chart and still couldn't find enough fib confluence to call it a butterfly, could you post your chart please?
  • #7,382
  • Mar 3, 2010 12:39pm Mar 3, 2010 12:39pm
low
a friend email it to me i think he got it from a site .
samer
ps : low u can go to mql4 site , and search for ZUP . u will find an indicator to draw it

Quoting Low
Samer,

I pulled a lot of fibs on that daily chart and still couldn't find enough fib confluence to call it a butterfly, could you post your chart please?
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  • #7,383
  • Mar 3, 2010 3:55pm Mar 3, 2010 3:55pm
Quoting samer960
chris
any comment about this pair . it has broken all time high in almost 10 years !! it shows a bearish butterfly !
would like to hear your comment about this pair
thanks
samer

Truthfully, I would wait and see what it does around the 1.30 area. (actually, I have a line at 1.2950) It should try to retest that area.....and if it holds - it's a long. If not, well, it's a short.

Be patient, it will show it's true intentions.
  • #7,384
  • Mar 3, 2010 4:22pm Mar 3, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting whitegoodman
Hey guys dropping in, just wanna throw some thoughts up regarding AUDUSD...

past few days we've had our major economic announcements

yesterday raising rates 25bps and today GDP y/y better than expectations

Now if we are getting such great news and still not pushing higher, to me it seems hard for the AUD to rally much further, any bit of bad data will push it off immensely i feel, just looking at the structure of the chart and the brick wall its hitting atm, im short biased.
Yeah.... never seen a rate hike sounding sooo shy....

IMO bulls are not sooo confident on AUD.... let's wait and see..
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #7,385
  • Mar 3, 2010 5:18pm Mar 3, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting HouseTrader
Yeah.... never seen a rate hike sounding sooo shy....

IMO bulls are not sooo confident on AUD.... let's wait and see..
This has been shown a few times recently. I really think the AUD is due for a fall. The NZD is as well.
  • #7,386
  • Mar 3, 2010 5:51pm Mar 3, 2010 5:51pm
Quoting clockwork71
Truthfully, I would wait and see what it does around the 1.30 area. (actually, I have a line at 1.2950) It should try to retest that area.....and if it holds - it's a long. If not, well, it's a short.

Be patient, it will show it's true intentions.
Actually, butterfly's and gartley's are a little different, even on a daily chart, they usually just turn right around, the reason it's ok to trade these more or less "blind" is because you have to pull the fibs. and there must be confluence to validate the set-up.

A lot of the time I'll see something "I think is a butterfly..." put the fibs on and find out it's not. So no trade. If you find one and validate it, they have a 70% success rate, so you just take the risk and find out later.

In most other set-ups I like waiting for some kind of confirmation, but these patterns are too specific and turn too quickly, so I just take em.
  • #7,387
  • Mar 4, 2010 10:49am Mar 4, 2010 10:49am
Friday is yet another NFP Friday. Even though I do not condone trading on these days, I know some of you will still try it. If you do, I have a couple of things I want you to think about:

The talking heads are saying a few things that might actually matter this time. There is a lot of talk about how bad weather will be to blame for a worse than expected number. If people really do believe that, and the number is lower than what is expected.....look for a knee-jerk negative reaction, and then a positive reaction in order to take advantage of all those "wrong people that didn't factor in the results of bad weather." What it comes down to is that Wall Street will certainly find any reason to keep the party going.

The other possibility will be that the number is better than expected. If that's the case - positive.

So tomorrow could ba a positive no matter what. Of course, it's all bollocks, but that's just the truth....and nobody on the isle of Manhattan cares about that.

Stay out of the markets is my advice. Take a look at how the week ends - and then you might have a decent set up.
  • #7,388
  • Mar 4, 2010 11:42am Mar 4, 2010 11:42am
Quoting clockwork71
Friday is yet another NFP Friday. Even though I do not condone trading on these days, I know some of you will still try it. If you do, I have a couple of things I want you to think about:

The talking heads are saying a few things that might actually matter this time. There is a lot of talk about how bad weather will be to blame for a worse than expected number. If people really do believe that, and the number is lower than what is expected.....look for a knee-jerk negative reaction, and then a positive reaction in order to take advantage of all...
Thanks for the info. I'm not crazy about taking any trades during nfp week. Seems they don't follow through as they normally would. I'm just a big .

lol I'm hoping for some nice setups afterwards though. I'm also not smart enough to trade news so I won't bs myself into thinking I can.
  • #7,389
  • Mar 4, 2010 12:49pm Mar 4, 2010 12:49pm
Samer,

I want to revisit my earlier post, as we've both noticed the audnzd didn't play out.

I've seen the indicators that measure the fib ratio's, but prefer to look for simple confluence, and in my experience(I've only validated 2 or 3 and they have all worked), these patterns are very rare, and very reliable because of it.

The first thing I do is pull a fib on the X-A surge, and I want the current price to be the 127% fib extension of that distance. But that's easy to find. What seals the deal for me is to also pull a fib on the A-B leg, and look for point D to show confluence with the first fib, preferably 1.618 or 2.1618 FE.

When the two fibs line up with the current price, I'll take the entry. If not, I'll pass. I find that most of the time they do not. I'm looking for an example of how I do it, and if I find one I'll post it.
  • #7,390
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:48pm Mar 4, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting calderone
Thanks for the info. I'm not crazy about taking any trades during nfp week. Seems they don't follow through as they normally would. I'm just a big .

lol I'm hoping for some nice setups afterwards though. I'm also not smart enough to trade news so I won't bs myself into thinking I can.
I am willing to bet that the weekly charts will give us much more information about the markets. I will post some of my observations, if I see anything interesting afterward.

Chris
  • #7,391
  • Mar 4, 2010 5:54pm Mar 4, 2010 5:54pm
Hey guys,

Non farms payroll tomorrow (betch u would love to own a farm now)

Lets place a bet...damn those big wall street bankers...that un-employment numbers just get better and better and utopia is finally here.

What I am going to watch for is when my realtor and his staff leave their Home Depot and Mikey D's jobs and again grab the american dream.

P.S. my home owners dues just went up along with my golf....too many empty homes I quess...oh and my old neighbor...GM guy...asked me for a few bucks to help him out.

NFP...yea baby !!!!



humble golferfx
  • #7,392
  • Mar 4, 2010 8:34pm Mar 4, 2010 8:34pm
Quoting golferfx
Hey guys,

Non farms payroll tomorrow (betch u would love to own a farm now)

Lets place a bet...damn those big wall street bankers...that un-employment numbers just get better and better and utopia is finally here.

What I am going to watch for is when my realtor and his staff leave their Home Depot and Mikey D's jobs and again grab the american dream.

P.S. my home owners dues just went up along with my golf....too many empty homes I quess...oh and my old neighbor...GM guy...asked me for a few bucks to help him out.

NFP...yea baby !!!!...
  • #7,393
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:23am Mar 5, 2010 1:23am
Low
for me these patterns are just tools . i like it to add confirmation . i don't trade only using these patterns , although i know many PRO they trade these patterns and they are successful .
i dont really get your point here , u are saying : What seals the deal for me is to also pull a fib on the A-B leg, and look for point D to show confluence with the first fib, preferably 1.618 or 2.1618 FE
as u can see in the chart i have posted if u pull a fib on A-B leg u will see that point D is at 161.8 and this is what u r looking for . no ? sorry if i missed something .
samer

Quoting Low
Samer,

I want to revisit my earlier post, as we've both noticed the audnzd didn't play out.

I've seen the indicators that measure the fib ratio's, but prefer to look for simple confluence, and in my experience(I've only validated 2 or 3 and they have all worked), these patterns are very rare, and very reliable because of it.

The first thing I do is pull a fib on the X-A surge, and I want the current price to be the 127% fib extension of that distance. But that's easy to find. What seals the deal for me is to also pull a fib on the A-B leg, and...
  • #7,394
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:43am Mar 5, 2010 1:43am
i have been enjoying this ping pong for a few days . doctor said i should exercise it is good for my heart !
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  • #7,395
  • Mar 5, 2010 2:41am Mar 5, 2010 2:41am
Quoting samer960
Low
for me these patterns are just tools . i like...

Maybe it's just a difference in interpretation, but here's how I pulled the fibs.

http://i45.tinypic.com/ejtt03.png
  • #7,396
  • Mar 5, 2010 7:50am Mar 5, 2010 7:50am
Quoting samer960
i have been enjoying this ping pong for a few days . doctor said i should exercise it is good for my heart !

hehe, good trading. you are making money while the giants sleep.
  • #7,397
  • Mar 5, 2010 8:10am Mar 5, 2010 8:10am
I am watching this one. I will see where it's at once the trading day is over......
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  • #7,398
  • Mar 5, 2010 8:30am Mar 5, 2010 8:30am
Quoting clockwork71
I am watching this one. I will see where it's at once the trading day is over......
My eyes also on this pair , not understand what waiting for to move up!!
Nuts pair
  • #7,399
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:36am Mar 5, 2010 9:36am
Quoting egkid
My eyes also on this pair , not understand what waiting for to move up!!
Nuts pair

The biggest problem with this pair is that the two economies are so interconnected. Because of that, it can be choppy....but when it moves, it moves quick.

Chris
  • #7,400
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:50am Mar 5, 2010 9:50am
Just to add on what Chris has already said.........i am waiting to see what happens at the 1.0225 Area as i see this as a Box Trade..............

Do not forgot we have been in a down trend but wait for the happening, see the happening and act on the happening...............

cheers all and nice weekend

Quoting clockwork71
I am watching this one. I will see where it's at once the trading day is over......
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