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intraday trend trading with price action

  • #1,341
  • Mar 4, 2010 6:20am Mar 4, 2010 6:20am
Quoting Thenew
Thatīs something iīm tryng to refine, and starting to understant what you mean, ex: in my 1 trade it was wise wait for a retra as the impulse at that moment was still down and that would have been a be at worst, risk first then profit.
Apreciate your comments as always, many thanks...
your no 1 trade was wrong.
why long?
draw the impulsive moves on the chart then you will understand.
see my post #1315 its the same chart
  • #1,342
  • Mar 4, 2010 6:23am Mar 4, 2010 6:23am
Quoting trade price
your no 1 trade was wrong.
why long?
draw the impulsive moves on the chart then you will understand.
see my post #1315 its the same chart
Great thread so far. New in Forex ....
looking forward to learn more.
Why do use stochastic ?

lady bird
  • #1,343
  • Mar 4, 2010 6:32am Mar 4, 2010 6:32am
Quoting lady bird
Great thread so far. New in Forex ....
looking forward to learn more.
Why do use stochastic ?

lady bird
you will find them all the details if you read all the posts.
sho
  • #1,344
  • Mar 4, 2010 6:35am Mar 4, 2010 6:35am
Quote
with this chart can you explain how do you see supply and demand

My Take...
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  • #1,345
  • Mar 4, 2010 7:07am Mar 4, 2010 7:07am
Quoting trade price
with this chart can you explain how do you see supply and demand
Thanks Sho, this is my take on it. I think the down trend may be over now and we should be going long at the first opportunity. Not quite sure if the last bar is a valid signal though?
Attached Image
  • #1,346
  • Mar 4, 2010 7:42am Mar 4, 2010 7:42am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks Sho, this is my take on it. I think the down trend may be over now and we should be going long at the first opportunity. Not quite sure if the last bar is a valid signal though?
Seems good Dave nice explanation
  • #1,347
  • Mar 4, 2010 10:20am Mar 4, 2010 10:20am
Hello

I have been reviewing this thread and looking for trade opportunities to match the method here. I noticed this on the EUR USD from today marked with a blue arrow. Was this a valid entry?

PP
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  • #1,348
  • Mar 4, 2010 10:23am Mar 4, 2010 10:23am
Quoting pi piper
Hello

I have been reviewing this thread and looking for trade opportunities to match the method here. I noticed this on the EUR USD from today marked with a blue arrow. Was this a valid entry?

PP
I think so, downtrend, you get a retrace that almost touches the mid keltner, closes below.

Pardy
  • #1,349
  • Mar 4, 2010 10:35am Mar 4, 2010 10:35am
Quoting pi piper
Hello

I have been reviewing this thread and looking for trade opportunities to match the method here. I noticed this on the EUR USD from today marked with a blue arrow. Was this a valid entry?

PP
Looks like a valid entry to me. Nice downtrend, retrace,, price confirmation with pin. I would have taken that.
  • #1,350
  • Mar 4, 2010 11:39am Mar 4, 2010 11:39am
Quoting rtiger29
Looks like a valid entry to me. Nice downtrend, retrace,, price confirmation with pin. I would have taken that.

I agree. The question I have is the blue arrow pointing to the signal / confirmation bar or the entry bar. I would have entered on the bar after the blue arrow. How about some of you?
  • #1,351
  • Mar 4, 2010 12:36pm Mar 4, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting CodeMeister
I agree. The question I have is the blue arrow pointing to the signal / confirmation bar or the entry bar. I would have entered on the bar after the blue arrow. How about some of you?
For me the Blue Arrow was to indicate the signal bar so we would go short after this bar. It could have ended up looking like a Neutral bar. Seeing as the bar ended with no lower wick you would simply enter at the close of the Blue Arrow bar. If it had a lower wick you would wait for a break of its low or just pull the trigger.

I guess I have not answered your question but then as I'm new here I dont fully understand this method.

PP
  • #1,352
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:25pm Mar 4, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting CodeMeister
I agree. The question I have is the blue arrow pointing to the signal / confirmation bar or the entry bar. I would have entered on the bar after the blue arrow. How about some of you?
I agree, codemesiter

I would have jumped in after confirmation bar (blue arrow). So the bar after blue arrow is where i would have jumped in.
  • #1,353
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:25pm Mar 4, 2010 2:25pm
i think Sho have me on his ignore list he have not respended to my last 3 posts


best regards
  • #1,354
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:00pm Mar 4, 2010 4:00pm
Inserted Code
 
your no 1 trade was wrong.
why long?
draw the impulsive moves on the chart then you will understand.
see my post #[url="http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3517988&postcount=1315"]1315[/url] its the same chart

  • #1,355
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:28pm Mar 4, 2010 4:28pm
Quoting rtiger29
I agree, codemesiter

I would have jumped in after confirmation bar (blue arrow). So the bar after blue arrow is where i would have jumped in.
Yes, me too - on the close of the blue arrow bar.
  • #1,356
  • Edited 6:03pm Mar 4, 2010 4:30pm | Edited 6:03pm
Quoting francis2
Seems good Dave nice explanation
Nice to hear that Francis, thanks.
  • #1,357
  • Edited 7:31pm Mar 4, 2010 7:06pm | Edited 7:31pm
Hi everyone,

I'm looking at the above post of Pi Pipers and also agree that it would have been a good entry after the signal bar. I can also see a possible alternative entry on the same chart a little later on in the day.


How would we rate the alternative entry? Obviously hindsight tells us it would have been profitable to enter short after the alternative entry signal bar but does any of the price action previous to it also tell us this? In short was this an A+ trade or merely a B - setup?


My thoughts on this, which are probably wrong, are as follows:


1)There were long lower wicks on the bottoms of the candles that made up the impulsive wave just prior to the corrective move that ended in the "alternative entry" point. Now in Post#1 Sho said "A loss in momentum is NOT a sign of trend reversal" so would this evidence of increased buying demand towards the end of the impulsive move be something we overlook when we see price pushed back down again at our alternative entry signal candle, or was Sho talking about something else that has no bearing on this situation?

2)The alternative entry signal candle doesn't have a wick that reaches the middle keltner band. Would this make it too weak a signal or would this be seen as a strong evidence of the sellers taking over again and the corrective move coming to an early close?

3) I am not aware of any news around this time but maybe this had a bearing on the strong down move that followed. If this was the case then, for me anyway, normal rules don't apply and I would have stood aside regardless.

4)The alternative entry point was after the 4th impulsive wave down so maybe this disqualifies it as a consideration as the down move may have ended already as far as we would have known at that point, though it would certainly have been a low risk entry, around 9 pips as opposed to 18 pips on the first entry.

5)The alternative entry price action all took place around a figure, in this case 1.36000, so would we factor this into our decision to take the trade or would we let the price action decide and ignore the figure?

6) The alternative entry was around the 38.2 fib retracement of the previous impulsive move down so would we have let this influence a decision to follow the price action?

I guess I'm interested to see in what order we prioritise all the different considerations available to us and how we come to the decision that a trade is either an A or a B setup.

Either way I would welcome any comments and pointers if I am mistaken or missing something in my analysis,

Thanks again

Alan
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bringing order to chaos....
  • #1,358
  • Edited 10:29pm Mar 4, 2010 10:16pm | Edited 10:29pm
I think you have done an excellent analysis of the situation and presented it well. You noticed a few things I didn't and I can't think of anything you missed. By my count that was the 3rd correction not the fourth, but I may be wrong.

I was trading the GU at this time and it was several hours after the ECB address so the movement was the reaction to the announcement and as you can see the drop was very orderly, so it was an appropriate time to trade.

But based on the fact it was near the "big" number and you thought it was the fourth correction, it can't be an A.
  • #1,359
  • Mar 4, 2010 11:44pm Mar 4, 2010 11:44pm
I like analysis like these because we can discuss them. I would say if you start bringing in a bunch of different factors/filters before taking a trade i think you might miss some opportunities. Just my opinion. Because what happens is we start getting conflicting signals to how price responds to for example round numbers and so forth. I don't remember show mentioning round numbers, but i could be wrong. i think we should keep it as simple as possible, maybe have an idea of whats going on around price, but keep it simple to the point where you can pull the trigger. Kind of, when A happens then do B. i just think it cuts down on over thinking. And thats the whole point in practicing. I bet Sho can open up a chart and within a min or less know what he will do when price reaches a certain point, or when he gets a cetain price bar. We should also strive to get to that point, where we practice so much that it is second nature to us. Just my observation, but i could be wrong in my thinking.
  • #1,360
  • Mar 4, 2010 11:54pm Mar 4, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting rtiger29
I like analysis like these because we can discuss them. I would say if you start bringing in a bunch of different factors/filters before taking a trade i think you might miss some opportunities. Just my opinion. Because what happens is we start getting conflicting signals to how price responds to for example round numbers and so forth. I don't remember show mentioning round numbers, but i could be wrong. i think we should keep it as simple as possible, maybe have an idea of whats going on around price, but keep it simple to the point where you can...
I agree with you.
I believe Sho said that there would be many losses but as the stop loss is typically small, a runner would be able to recoup the losses.
Trading at a small time frame where noise is prevalent, it is difficult to get a water-tight system.
I don't know about you guys, but going through charts after charts I see so many signals I would have taken but which turned bad, that I really hope that the reward to risk ratio for this method is high.
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