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MTF Trend-Pullback Trading

  • #41
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:04am Mar 4, 2010 1:04am
It was pointed out to me in a private message that the Gann indicator I uploaded defaults back to pre-set colors, inconvenient when making personalized templates. I only happened to figure out how to adjust the code in MetaEditor, attached is a version that will not override user-set colors.

Jesper

PS, please do not ask me to explain what I did with the code or to help with re-programming anything else. I got lucky with this one, but really am not a programmer.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 !Gann HiLo.mq4   3 KB | 581 downloads
File Type: ex4 !Gann HiLo.ex4   3 KB | 512 downloads
  • #42
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:27am Mar 4, 2010 1:27am
Hi Jesper,

thank you for that - much appreciated.

Nick


Quoting jesperweber
It was pointed out to me in a private message that the Gann indicator I uploaded defaults back to pre-set colors, inconvenient when making personalized templates. I only happened to figure out how to adjust the code in MetaEditor, attached is a version that will not override user-set colors.

Jesper

PS, please do not ask me to explain what I did with the code or to help with re-programming anything else. I got lucky with this one, but really am not a programmer.
  • #43
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:49am Mar 4, 2010 3:49am
Hi there,
By using ur strategy i made two winning trades yesterday. Thx for the work. I couldnt be able to set the alarm to heiken ashi thats why i used QQE Alert V3 instead, worked fine.
  • #44
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:24am Mar 4, 2010 4:24am
Quoting dksolo
Hi there,
By using ur strategy i made two winning trades yesterday. Thx for the work. I couldnt be able to set the alarm to heiken ashi thats why i used QQE Alert V3 instead, worked fine.
Great! Glad you could make some pips

I like QQE, too, and actually use it for a different setup. If you combine QQE with the Gann High/Low break and reversal, you are getting very close to what is described on the Auslanco news trading thread (focus is on GBPUSD and GBPJPY); could be interesting reading for you, but be warned, it is extremely long.

If you want pop-up alerts for the Heikin-Ashi, you should try the original indicator that I attached to post #5; pop-ups are disabled for the indicator in post #2, which I am using.

Jesper
  • #45
  • Mar 4, 2010 9:36am Mar 4, 2010 9:36am
Quoting jesperweber
I have attached two charts for NZDUSD that demonstrate an opportunity to enter short.

  1. [...]
  2. I sold at 0.68998 -- could turn out to be psychological support working against me and is also close to be two-day low, but price is below yesterday's NY close and the daily pivot (all these not actually used in the system, but reassuring). My stop zone is a break of Gann resistance at 0.6965.

Jesper

Not exactly by the book, but I am going to bed so I wanted to take the risk off while the trade is in profit -- I mentioned in the PDF that if I am away from the PC, I would either trail the stop or hedge the position, so that is what I am doing now (because I do sleep away from the PC...).

Set the stop at 0.6888 to lock in 10 pips after the downward spike following the dismal Pending Home Sales figures from the US 30 minutes ago. The trade is currently about 40 pips into profit, so hopefully that is enough of a cushion for it to stay alive.

Good night,
Jesper
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #46
  • Edited 3:23pm Mar 4, 2010 3:22pm | Edited 3:23pm
Hello, how would you describe what is happening here:

The setup is cable H1 and H4. On the latter, there seems to have been a "flag" or minor retracement that appears to be reversing.

This appears to be confirmed with the double short arrows on the HA and a cross on the stochs, as well as what appears to be a downward slope of the macd, heading to drop below zero. What do you see with the bollinger bands here?

But then, on the H1, there is a long arrow on the HA, but the gann still showed up red for the candle.

I went short at 1.50239 with SL at 1.50871 and TP 1.49 because i wanted to experience what this trade will become, and the best way i know of taking in the lesson is to dive into it (tuition is what some call it ).

What is your feedback?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.
  • #47
  • Mar 4, 2010 5:49pm Mar 4, 2010 5:49pm
Quoting jesperweber
[...]

Set the stop at 0.6888 to lock in 10 pips after the downward spike following the dismal Pending Home Sales figures from the US 30 minutes ago. The trade is currently about 40 pips into profit, so hopefully that is enough of a cushion for it to stay alive.

Good night,
Jesper
NZDUSD consolidated where I left it when I went to bed. The Gann resistance dots now allow me to trail my stop and start adding to the position.

For now, I will leave it with 10 pips locked in; I won't be able to spend a lot of time at the PC today, but if I catch chances to add positions, or if I close the trade, I will post an update here.

Jesper
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #48
  • Mar 4, 2010 6:09pm Mar 4, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting Bwana
Hello, how would you describe what is happening here:

The setup is cable H1 and H4. On the latter, there seems to have been a "flag" or minor retracement that appears to be reversing.

This appears to be confirmed with the double short arrows on the HA and a cross on the stochs, as well as what appears to be a downward slope of the macd, heading to drop below zero. What do you see with the bollinger bands here?

But then, on the H1, there is a long arrow on the HA, but the gann still showed up red for the candle.

I went short at 1.50239...
Are you looking at H4 for trend and H1 for entry? For me, that would be too close to get pullback and entry chances. Or are you deciding which of the two to use as trend?

  1. On the H4, Heikin-Ashi is just flip-flopping around close to 0 -- not surprising given that 1.500 is major psychological resistance, and also that NFP is coming up today; the markets are waiting for direction. If you have identified a flag pattern and want to trade that, you are looking at a breakout trade, which is not covered by this system. Could be good trade, but you have to make your own rules. To take a trade based on the system described here, I would wait until MACD clearly separates from 0 and trend gains momentum again.
    With Heikin-Ashi down and price below Gann resistance you could go down to a quicker timeframe to look for entries, but think of them as high-risk in a largely ranging market.
  2. Your entry chart should be quicker than H1, such as M30 or M15; this lets you react faster to a reversing pullback, your entry chance. But using the chart you posted for discussion purposes, I do not see a valid entry inside the period you highlighted in gray.
    Heikin-Ashi and Gann are changing around, however Stochastics fails to confirm. The dead cross that happened on the last HA down arrow is not strong enough: both %K and %D lines had not crossed above 75. Remember: Stochastics is not optional for the entry.
    This is different just entering the gray zone; here you do have the Gann flip after the HA signal, confirmed by Stochastics coming back from above 75. Had this been supported by a strong trend on the higher timeframe, it would have been a good trade. It would have temporarily gone against you, hitting the D1 2-Bar High, but this should have been within in your tolerance range before taking out a hard stop, and would be back in profit at the time you took the screenshot.

Makes sense? Hope the trade works out for you.

Jesper

  • #49
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:44am Mar 5, 2010 12:44am
Bit risky with NFP coming up later today, but still believing in the fundamentals behind the trade (spell G-R-E-E-C-E).

  1. EURUSD in early Europe/pre-London fell back below yesterday's New York close.
  2. H4 gave a sell signal some six bars ago, but it took time to gain confidence in the signal looking at MACD. There was a significant rebound off the daily low, but now the signals are lining up (please ignore the Stochastics firework at the bottom of the chart, it is experimental).
  3. M30 Stochastics gave the first signal after H4 turned downward three hours ago, but only now a Gann resistance dot has formed; other signals lined up I decided to sell at 1.35767.
  4. Initial stop according to H4 should be above 1.370; 130 pips sounds like a lot, but on the H4 chart it is not, especially expecting wild fluctuation upon the NFP release. I will actually set it above the daily-high indicator at 1.3740.

Knock on wood.

Jesper

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #50
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:53am Mar 5, 2010 1:53am
Quoting jesperweber
NZDUSD consolidated where I left it when I went to bed. The Gann resistance dots now allow me to trail my stop and start adding to the position.

For now, I will leave it with 10 pips locked in; I won't be able to spend a lot of time at the PC today, but if I catch chances to add positions, or if I close the trade, I will post an update here.

Jesper
Yesterday's trade stopped out for 10 pips profit. H4 trend also showing signs of bullish reversal (again, no questions about the Stochastics, please).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #51
  • Edited 9:48am Mar 5, 2010 9:29am | Edited 9:48am
What would you say is your long term success ratio with the
4hr 30m system?

So far, I like getting a 30m "signal" ie everything lines up
then go to my Magix MTF thread 5 min template (I also
put your setup for the 4hr and 30m on that template
and it added some nice benefits!) and use that for
entry. Basically looking for breaking the short term s/r
shown on the M5 chart for entering to reduce whipsaw
that can be seen on 30M charts, especially weeks like this.

Brian
  • #52
  • Mar 5, 2010 11:53am Mar 5, 2010 11:53am
Quoting golden1
What would you say is your long term success ratio with the
4hr 30m system?

So far, I like getting a 30m "signal" ie everything lines up
then go to my Magix MTF thread 5 min template (I also
put your setup for the 4hr and 30m on that template
and it added some nice benefits!) and use that for
entry. Basically looking for breaking the short term s/r
shown on the M5 chart for entering to reduce whipsaw
that can be seen on 30M charts, especially weeks like this.

Brian
Hard to say what the success ratio is long term. I also trade this mixed with other setups and it has been evolving until lately, so I do not have statistics yet.

This is not a system to be watching the monitor all day for signals. The idea is to catch a lasting trend fairly early and build your position into it. For scalping and day trading, other setups would be better.

Unfortunately, this one week since I posted saw the markets mostly ranging when looking at the daily chart. Some movements on H4 and the lower timeframes, but really not enough to get good mileage. If you went back to the previous week, where we had strongly trending markets, and did a visual confirmation on possible entries, you would see that this approach can capture huge pips.

Jesper
  • #53
  • Mar 5, 2010 8:36pm Mar 5, 2010 8:36pm
Quoting jesperweber
[...]

  1. Initial stop according to H4 should be above 1.370; 130 pips sounds like a lot, but on the H4 chart it is not, especially expecting wild fluctuation upon the NFP release. I will actually set it above the daily-high indicator at 1.3740.

Knock on wood.

Jesper

Closed the trade manually for 24 pips of profit because I prefer not to keep trades open over the weekend.

Jesper
  • #54
  • Edited 4:01am Mar 6, 2010 2:34am | Edited 4:01am
Quoting jesperweber
Closed the trade manually for 24 pips of profit because I prefer not to keep trades open over the weekend.

Jesper
Hi Jesper,

Could you drag your closed trades to the charts from the account history in the future? I would like to compare your trades with my charts but right now I even do not understand from your pictures where the entries were... I also do not know the time-zone of your br*ker, so no proper comparison could be done.

Also, it would be nice to see some of your real wins and losses with the system. Right now, I have understood that the usual result is between 0 and 24 pips, so it sounds like a breakeven system.

I am using a system that has similar elements with your, Tony's and Andrew Forex systems but my idea is to use only H4 timeframe - a real set-and-forget system. But trading from H4 chart with 0-20 pips result would have no sense. Then it is better to find other hobbies/job. (Edit: That I am not going to do )
  • #55
  • Mar 6, 2010 4:04am Mar 6, 2010 4:04am
Quoting Indrek
Hi Jesper,

Could you drag your closed trades to the charts from the account history in the future? I would like to compare your trades with my charts but right now I even do not understand from your pictures where the entries were... I also do not know the time-zone of your br*ker, so no proper comparison could be done.

Also, it would be nice to see some of your real wins and losses with the system. Right now, I have understood that the usual result is between...
Hi,

I am not posting all and every of my trades from this system (this is not a trading journal), but when I do the charts are uploaded immediately after I did the transaction (enter/modify/close a trade) or would be annotated accordingly if posted later. My trend charts are on Alpari UK (GMT +/-0), entry charts are on FXCM UK (GMT -1). That should hopefully give you a way to find out what the local time at your place or for your broker would have been.

I use MT4 only for charting and trade on an entirely different platform. Therefore I cannot show the actual trades on the chart, but try marking them with horizontal and vertical lines.

For reasons I have explained in the opening post I am not going to disclose my account statements, and I am not intending to provide signals. I am only showing a possible approach to trading. The choice of currency pairs, sessions traded, timeframes etc. -- and thus the trades taken and the results -- will be different for every thread participant. So after I presented the logic I am showing some trade examples strictly for illustration purposes.

Also, whether I have winning or losing trades does not make a statement of the system being good or bad. There are discretionary elements in the system, so the results only reflect on my trading skills. Different traders will have different results; once more, the discussion is about methodology. Think of it as a philosophical discussion if you wish.

The trades I posted this week were taken in a mostly ranging market. For that, I think having no negative trades I did well. Single-timeframe trading, providing for faster entries, likely could have pulled more pips. Multi-timeframe trading is conservative and secure in comparison.

Lastly, you said you were doing something with similar elements. Not to judge, but if you are on a single timeframe, then even with an identical set of indicators you are taking an entirely different approach to trading from what I am describing here. Different things work for different traders, so I certainly do not mean to judge this good or bad, just pointing out that it is different (I have single-timeframe setups, too, that I am running concurrently but not discussing here, as they would be off-topic).

Jesper
  • #56
  • Edited 4:16am Mar 6, 2010 4:06am | Edited 4:16am
Quoting Indrek
I am using a system that has similar elements with your, Tony's and Andrew Forex systems but my idea is to use only H4 timeframe - a real set-and-forget system.
The only elements that I am missing right now is proper SL/TS. It seems to me that 1.5*ATR(100) on H4 is a good and safe SL but I have no good idea for TS if there is a nice long trend.

Trailing by last Fractal or by three last H4 candles may be what I am looking for.

BTW: I am also a multi-timeframe trader by my nature but due to my other responsibilities I just have no time to watch the charts for looking/waiting for a proper entries on lower TF. That is why I am working on a very mechanical system, and thanks to you, Andrew and Tony I have found necessary pieces of the puzzle. THANK YOU!
And, I will certainly not clog your thread with the topic of my system any more.
  • #57
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:37am Mar 6, 2010 5:37am
Quoting Indrek
The only elements that I am missing right now is proper SL/TS. It seems to me that 1.5*ATR(100) on H4 is a good and safe SL but I have no good idea for TS if there is a nice long trend.

Trailing by last Fractal or by three last H4 candles may be what I am looking for.

BTW: I am also a multi-timeframe trader by my nature but due to my other responsibilities I just have no time to watch the charts for looking/waiting for a proper entries on lower TF. That is why I am working on a very mechanical system, and thanks to you, Andrew and Tony I have...
Hey,

Never meant to accuse you of clogging...

Stops and targets I guess are the biggest struggle for everybody. Because MTF is clear on which chart shows the trend, in other words uses that as a reference frame while watching the price action on the entry chart, your ideas for stops and targets should be insightful for everybody, if they can be applied to the trend timeframe.

Last three candles works if the market has already put a good move on, not if it is ranging. With fractals I would look at least two back to guard against temporary spikes.

Is there a particular reason you are looking at ATR(100)? On H4 charts you are averaging almost one month, maybe it would be better to take more recent price action into account -- if you had three quiet weeks and happen to enter in the first one that sees action, your stop could become too tight. I would recommend to at least compare ATR(100) to something shorter, say ATR(5) for a little less than a day and ATR(13) for just over two days (I just happen to like Fibonacci numbers). Thus you get a picture whether volatility is stable, picking up or decreasing.

Jesper
  • #58
  • Edited Mar 7, 2010 8:45am Mar 6, 2010 9:51am | Edited Mar 7, 2010 8:45am
Quoting jesperweber
Is there a particular reason you are looking at ATR(100)? On H4 charts you are averaging almost one month, maybe it would be better to take more recent price action into account -- if you had three quiet weeks and happen to enter in the first one that sees action, your stop could become too tight. I would recommend to at least compare ATR(100) to something shorter, say ATR(5) for a little less than a day and ATR(13) for just over two days (I just happen to like Fibonacci numbers). Thus you get a picture whether volatility is stable, picking up or...
My backtests showed that the short term differencies in ATR do not influence the results. Whatever period of ATR*1.5 we use, there is always some safety space (or buffer) that will be hit by PA only if the entry was false (in other words, if market just reversed against you).
The same principle - ATR*1.5 - also works very well on daily chart.
When trading at lower TF (M30 and under), it is reasonable to use 2*ATR or more.
  • #59
  • Mar 7, 2010 6:12pm Mar 7, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting jesperweber
Closed the trade manually for 24 pips of profit because I prefer not to keep trades open over the weekend.

Jesper
Apologies. Coming back this morning I noticed that I had closed a different position on Friday night. The EURUSD trade presented here is still open, and it is currently about 60 pips in the red.

I would have closed it had it been in profit before the weekly close, to avoid it gapping away. Last Friday I thought that I did so, but confused myself. I will now keep the position according to the initial trade setup and keep posting about it here.

Jesper
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #60
  • Mar 7, 2010 6:17pm Mar 7, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting jesperweber
Apologies. Coming back this morning I noticed that I had closed a different position on Friday night. The EURUSD trade presented here is still open, and it is currently about 60 pips in the red.

I would have closed it had it been in profit before the weekly close, to avoid it gapping away. Last Friday I thought that I did so, but confused myself. I will now keep the position according to the initial trade setup and keep posting about it here.

Jesper
Hey Jesper,can you show me where you enter on this trade?..nice system BTW
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