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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #1,081
  • Mar 3, 2010 3:26am Mar 3, 2010 3:26am
Quoting Vantage
I was sent a pm and asked some questions, if its OK I'll post reply here.

Q) I mentioned high prob trades in prev post, why/pls elaborate, why not just a norm retracement trade?

OK why high prob. 4hr moved up strongly in Asian session to strong down trendline (TL not shown). It stalled there and had a nice hesitation candle. So we are in a nice downtrend and its holding some key 4hr chart points.

First poss trade shown, left arrow down. Small candle shooting star and another very small positive candle that could not go above upper...
now that is a great post
  • #1,082
  • Mar 4, 2010 12:52am Mar 4, 2010 12:52am
GM - the fall since yesterday afternoon high has just broken the 50% retrace at 5052 and is heading for the 61% at 5034 - this is also the uptrend line off Monday and Tuesdays lows.

The 6am area gave confirmation sell signals as price held under the falling 5m 30ema and now we've just had a high volume candle into the current low at 5040. I need to see what happens into FO before thinking about a small buy.......or I'll pull a fib over this last fall and watch for another sell off whatever bounce materialises....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,083
  • Edited 1:13am Mar 4, 2010 1:09am | Edited 1:13am
The low at 5038 came in on time - 76 mins L/L or 61 H/L http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif - so I now have a small long with TP just under the 50% / DP level....timingwise towards mid FH.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,084
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:21am Mar 4, 2010 1:21am
Quoting Islander
The low at 5038 came in on time - 76 mins L/L or 61 H/L http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif - so I now have a small long with TP just under the 50% / DP level....timingwise towards mid FH.....

TP hit in the earliest time line....a small 1m LH, so I sold....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,085
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:43am Mar 4, 2010 1:43am
I'm looking for a retest of the low, or preferably a new low ~MS1 / 5025 level into LO......TWT

As the high in this time period came early, I would have thought that the fall would have continued earlier too....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,086
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:59am Mar 4, 2010 1:59am
Quoting Islander
I'm looking for a retest of the low, or preferably a new low ~MS1 / 5025 level into LO......TWT

As the high in this time period came early, I would have thought that the fall would have continued earlier too....

MY TP was hit in the very high 5m volume candle down to the current low....IF that breaks, the next level is the S1 / 5000 area.

€s low was in a VHV 5m spinning top.

I'm waiting for LO before another trade......IF this support area holds, I'll take a small long (against the falling MAs)
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,087
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:03am Mar 4, 2010 2:03am
After a daily doji yesterday and a 4hr neg close candle this was a nice lh sell on ej. Had a 2nd sell on 120.50 out at BE.

In between that we had a losing trade buying gu. It was a poor trade, thats when I do get upset. Normal decent trades/entries that go south no problem, bad trade bad entry and I'm not a happy camper. Oh well enough said about that.
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  • #1,088
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:12am Mar 4, 2010 2:12am
Quoting Islander
MY TP was hit in the very high 5m volume candle down to the current low....IF that breaks, the next level is the S1 / 5000 area.

€s low was in a VHV 5m spinning top.

I'm waiting for LO before another trade......IF this support area holds, I'll take a small long (against the falling MAs)
A slightly lower low 48 minutes after the high - € had a HL - and I took a small long looking for a retrace towards the 50% / 5050 / 5m 30 ema area into around 8:30......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,089
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:46am Mar 4, 2010 2:46am
Quoting Islander
A slightly lower low 48 minutes after the high - € had a HL - and I took a small long looking for a retrace towards the 50% / 5050 / 5m 30 ema area into around 8:30......
TP hit in the spike up to the 62% / DP level

The Halifax HPI data is due at 9am gmt.

The 5 min volumes have been high since before LO.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,090
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:13am Mar 4, 2010 3:13am
The Halifax data was -1.5 vs expected +0.3, so I sold, looking for a retest of the lows, or, IF the fall really continues, the S1 / 5000 area.......BUT there are mixed signals, with both MAs trying to roll over and turn positive so TWT

Loads of BOE stuff in 3 hours.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,091
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:21am Mar 4, 2010 4:21am
Quoting Islander
The Halifax data was -1.5 vs expected +0.3, so I sold, looking for a retest of the lows, or, IF the fall really continues, the S1 / 5000 area.......BUT there are mixed signals, with both MAs trying to roll over and turn positive so TWT

Loads of BOE stuff in 3 hours.....

Sideways / slightly down for 47 mins then a HL at 61 mins at the then rising 5m 30 ema.....so I exited my short for a small loss and reversed to long.....with the DP broken, my target becomes the MR1 area at 5122, although I'll probably play safe and look at the days open / 5100 for my exit....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,092
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:42am Mar 4, 2010 4:42am
Quoting Islander
Sideways / slightly down for 47 mins then a HL at 61 mins at the then rising 5m 30 ema.....so I exited my short for a small loss and reversed to long.....with the DP broken, my target becomes the MR1 area at 5122, although I'll probably play safe and look at the days open / 5100 for my exit....


and I did as this was after a 47 min rally.....the MR1 area will probably get hit around 10:47....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif......now to continue with my research.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,093
  • Edited 12:26am Mar 5, 2010 12:02am | Edited 12:26am
Quoting Vantage
After a daily doji yesterday and a 4hr neg close candle this was a nice lh sell on ej. Had a 2nd sell on 120.50 out at BE.

In between that we had a losing trade buying gu. It was a poor trade, thats when I do get upset. Normal decent trades/entries that go south no problem, bad trade bad entry and I'm not a happy camper. Oh well enough said about that.
How large are your stops on such a small time frame? how much is your roi per week if i can ask please. I was reading about your position sizing and find it similar to other things i am learning on a site called kreslik. thanks

edit: also can you tell me the emas you use
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #1,094
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:29am Mar 5, 2010 12:29am
Quoting Islander
and I did as this was after a 47 min rally.....the MR1 area will probably get hit around 10:47....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif......now to continue with my research.....
Hi Islander thanks so much for sharing. Can I ask 2 things? Can you please provide an end of day chart with the trades you take including sl and tp? I realize trading a small timeframe you are often busy looking at charts. Also can you please update your first post to include the template and indicators that you use? I have read all pages so far and it is a great thread was just wondering if you could please do that to help. If I am not looking at a particular day it is hard to find a 5 minute doji if you know what i mean
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #1,095
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:37am Mar 5, 2010 12:37am
GM - overnight cable retraced to just under the 50% level in 123 5m bars....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif. So far the fall has stalled at ~a 61% retrace at the 5025 level / day open. I shorted when price held ~the 150 ema and banked a few quick pips....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,096
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:49am Mar 5, 2010 12:49am
Took this one still in stop at BE.
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  • #1,097
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:56am Mar 5, 2010 12:56am
Quoting Islander
GM - overnight cable retraced to just under the 50% level in 123 5m bars....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif. So far the fall has stalled at ~a 61% retrace at the 5025 level / day open. I shorted when price held ~the 150 ema and banked a few quick pips....
....and if I'd followed my own work and waited a little - well, so far 29 minutes, I'd have banked a few more pips as price tried to get down to MS1 at 5016 - its first target after its rejection of the DP.....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,098
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:05am Mar 5, 2010 1:05am
I've now bought after the 5m harami low - 60 bars after the prior low. This was follwed by a HL in a small hammer......1 minwise, the HL was 47 mins after the test of the slow ema.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,099
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:17am Mar 5, 2010 1:17am
I also exited my sell for small gain. Freaky fri made worse by NFP?
  • #1,100
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:23am Mar 5, 2010 1:23am
Quoting eaglestar
Hi Islander thanks so much for sharing. Can I ask 2 things? Can you please provide an end of day chart with the trades you take including sl and tp? I realize trading a small timeframe you are often busy looking at charts. Also can you please update your first post to include the template and indicators that you use? I have read all pages so far and it is a great thread was just wondering if you could please do that to help. If I am not looking at a particular day it is hard to find a 5 minute doji if you know what i mean


GM - as Medici started this thread, I am not able to modify the first post.

As stated many times, on the 5 min chart I use a 30 ema. On the 1 min chart this becomes a 150 ema and I also use the 30 ema.

I also use the SDX-T2 pivots set to 5pm est, the SDX-Sweet Spots V5.2 and Trading Session V Lines......if you like an ema that changes colour, its the AllAverages v2.1......these can be axcessed by clicking on the paperclip on the top right of this page.

Please read post # 1067 P72 as this again clarifies my position on posting actual trades - I usually use a 50 pip hard stop and a variable soft stop.

When I have time, I post an annotated chart, the only other ones that I keep are my research charts and I doubt that these will help.

When looking at other posts, I find it easier to follow if I open their charts in another monitor....you could also do this via a split screen or even print the post and refer to it against a chart - I've used all of these...

Regards

Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
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