Sweet, sweet Oil

Yes, I am doing this for about a year but not every day . I wait until the floor traders are ready to cash in by the end of the day, that is between 2-2:15 eastern time.NYMEX closes at 2:30 so when they are going to the bank I will take a trade many times shorting oil with 30 cents profit and loss,but also taking the long side if prices are hammered down enough by around 2 pm.I would like to make a caveat here as mentioned above you can not do this every day you have to wait for the big guys for guidance and do not trade after 2:30pm (exception is tuesday when the api releases its data by 4:30pm) If is a very bull day prices will rise even higher after 2 pm or the opposite: will continue to go down after very bad news.
Use also support , resistance ,Bollinger bands and tick volume.The last one most likely only for research and for standing aside if is peaked already do not take any trades.This is my afternoon system in a nutshell .

After the initial selloff in oil at 10:30 EST it rallied back and retraced the full down move. I had a buy stop for entry at 80.30, which was filled. My theory was that after the immediate reaction, if it could get back above to pre release levels it would be a good buy. Too bad S&P did not rally more today or Oil could have been a huge winner.

Let's see if oil continues to run for a few more days to the 83-84 range. The breakout above 80 looks bullish but I wonder how long that might last.

Missed my alarm for a scalp at 79.36 for +30 pips so re-entered SHORT at 79.36 taking just over 100 pips.

Nice sell off today. A little weakness in the S&P helping add to the downside. Weaker EURUSD and GBPUSD moving lower with oil as well.

Hi Traders,

US clocks have already gone back this weekend so oil will open at 1pm and equities 1.30pm

Here is a short video (normally about10 minutes) of the markets talking about my view on the week ahead from the proxies to currencies, commodities and equities (US only).

http://www.thehamiltons.co.uk/14-03_10/14-03_10.html

Oil just shot up over 82.
Did the Chinese just order another 10 million cars or something?

Trading "Oil" Crude and more-so WTI
"west Texas Intermediate" which is a lighter and sweeter crude than "brent"

I like the way it moves on the H4 and have a yearning for "Black Gold"!!!
LOL

ANyway WTI has taken 84!! THIS IS A NICE MOVE!

After the selloff last week that took Crudes down to 79 we have moved quite far back north.

I'm a new convert to oil, so still really in the research stage, trying to get a handle on the Price Action. So very interested in learning more.

Peter

I am looking for overshoots at key levels combined with overshoot of TMA bands - confirmed (after the fact) with CCI divergence. I trade one direction only, determined by 144 TMA.

Usually use a 15 pip stop and a 55 pip target.

You really have to see the trades setting up in oil before the indicators give you confirmation. When oil changes direction it really does it too fast for the indicator so if you wait for the indicator your risk will have to be much larger.

For example, I use 13 pip range bars with a 15 pip stop. In the previous post I circled a pin bar just piercing 99.00. I want to get in as close to 99 as possible, however the actual cci divergence did not give me a signal until the candle finished its 13 pip range at 98.86 and then in the few seconds it would take to enter an order price was already below 98.75 a difference of over 25 pips and half of my projected target.

So for me, if I do not see it forming and get in at a significant level, I won't take the trade. You have to really be paying attention to trade oil.

Here is an example of what I referred to in the previous post....



I had a pierce of my TMA bands and thought I had divergence, but as soon as the next bar started up I bailed for a small (4 pip) loss.

Now I have a limit to get short at 98.75 where I see temporary resistance.

I should point out that it is lunch time in NY which coincides with London's quitting time (12 noon EST), so this is the slowest time of day (doesn't mean we can't see fireworks).

got me twice so last trade of the day - short@99

Thanks for the interesting insight into your method of trading. I'm more into the total lack of indicators for trading forex, but oil does not fit the patterns I'm used to. I'll load up a chart like yours and watch it for a while.

Last night, my chart had long wicks, particularly obvious on the M1 and M5 that I normally trade. This morning I see it was like it the whole night. Not sure if it was just my broker, or a real price. I did take a small scalp during it, but was not too keen to trade as usually long wicks point in the direction of loss, and my feel was that oil was going down.

hello. tnx for mentioning oil. it was about time. my broker offers oil trades. but guess what, they dont even have a price chart for oil (no mt4 platform). i hope there are enough oil traders to keep this thread alive.

not seeing those wicks on my chart - looks more like an ES low tick chart.

For US traders FXDD is supposed to have USOil available sometime around the end of the month.

thats good to hear as my current broker (hotforex) just added a $2 commission to a $5 spread.

Looking at a volume indicator on a monthly oil charts shows the volume of oil being traded since mid 2011 up about 400% compared to any previous year..

Is this correct?

Will it last?

It makes day trading oil pretty simple..