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intraday trend trading with price action

  • #1,281
  • Mar 2, 2010 1:07pm Mar 2, 2010 1:07pm
Thanks Roper, do you know by that did Sho mean breakout of inside bar body, or high /low
  • #1,282
  • Mar 2, 2010 1:23pm Mar 2, 2010 1:23pm
Hi sutts,

How are you doing, I guess like many threads where people dont post there lossing trades, to newbies it does give a false impression. But the good thing is the part of this method which minimizes losses.
  • #1,283
  • Mar 2, 2010 1:23pm Mar 2, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting francis2
Thanks Roper, do you know by that did Sho mean breakout of inside bar body, or high /low
I have been using the High/Low.
  • #1,284
  • Mar 2, 2010 1:24pm Mar 2, 2010 1:24pm
Thanks Roper
  • #1,285
  • Mar 2, 2010 1:38pm Mar 2, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting ukcool
Hi sutts,

How are you doing, I guess like many threads where people dont post there lossing trades, to newbies it does give a false impression. But the good thing is the part of this method which minimizes losses.
Hi UK,

Put it this way, I'm doing better with this method than anything I've tried before. So far I've been up every day on my demo account which is a good sign. I'm typically making 25-35 pips per day. I think that would be much higher if I could just cull a few stupid trades.

How are things going for you?

Dave
  • #1,286
  • Mar 2, 2010 1:45pm Mar 2, 2010 1:45pm
Dave why dont you use, a live account. with a very small lot size. I havent used a demo for ages know. I think even if it is pennies, it would be better then a demo.
It has a different effect on you emotionally.
  • #1,287
  • Mar 2, 2010 1:56pm Mar 2, 2010 1:56pm
Guys,

I believe I've been overtrading this method and am trying hard to pick just a handful of good trades per day. I was successful with this today - 3 trades for 53 pips. A couple of days ago I made 27 pips in 13 trades - not so great.

I'd be interested in a discussion of TRUE A+ trades. I think the term A+ is getting used quite loosely in some posts. It would be great if we could hammer out the true definition between us.

As a start how about this for a long:

1. An impulse move has recently completed (price has just exceeded last swing high)

2. Price has pulled back and is stalling at a key support line. This could be the previous swing high or horizontal support off a higher timeframe such as H4 or D1.

3. Price is stalling in a region between the 38.2 and 61.8 fib of the impulse move.

4. Price reacts to the support and closes off the lows forming a nice pin bar.



Please feel free to tear this apart and add to it. I think it could help a lot of us if we have a solid definition to work with.

Thanks
  • #1,288
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:03pm Mar 2, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting ukcool
Dave why dont you use, a live account. with a very small lot size. I havent used a demo for ages know. I think even if it is pennies, it would be better then a demo.
It has a different effect on you emotionally.
I do have a live mini account but am restricting myself to 3 trades per day (usually the first 3 of the day) just to stop me blowing it all too soon. I agree there is no substitute for trading live as I do behave quite differently.

Today I did manage to finish up 26 pips on my live account but often I end up with a small loss and then go on to great things with my demo.

I'm toying with the idea of moving to a micro account so I can trade this method live all day without worrying too much.
  • #1,289
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:16pm Mar 2, 2010 2:16pm
Sorry for the excess posts...just catching up with the thread.

I'm beginning to spot inside bars more often now but I've noticed that most of them require a stop that exceeds my limit of 12-15 pips. Usually I'd just wait for a small retrace of the bar and enter with a better risk but inside bars are different aren't they? - we're supposed to enter on the break of the bar.

I've noticed a few of you guys taking IBs that I couldn't take and wonder how you are working these trades. The 3 possibilities I can think of are:

1. Enter on break with stop larger than my limit
2. Enter on break with a smaller stop that does not exceed the bar high/low
3. Wait for break and then hope for a retrace to get you in at reduced risk

I guess 2 is risky and 3 is unlikely as IB breaks are often powerful and don't look back.

Hope you can help me figure this out.

Thanks
  • #1,290
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:54pm Mar 2, 2010 2:54pm
I with you on bearing down on A+ trades, life is much easier winning 2 out of 3.
  • #1,291
  • Edited 4:51pm Mar 2, 2010 4:29pm | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting TheRoper
This is a method I use to practice. I open a chart, use my mouse to drag the price back as far as data exists. I then (using my mouse) advance each bar and make judgement calls as to what I would do in real time. This way you can not see any price to the right of your screen until you advance it(one bar at a time) with you mouse. I tried to make a video to post showing this but after uploading FF said file was not valid.

Kurt
Hi Kurt,

I do this too, but I use the F12 key to advance the chart 1 bar at a time rather than the mouse as the mouse can pull 3 bars at a time.

Alternativaly I use a backtesting program for MT4 that allows me to load between two dates in any time frame and use any template and then watch at any speed from realtime to fast forward. It can be paused and trades can be placed too so as to see the results you would have had.

It is made up of a few files that need dropping into various folders in MT4 but is I find it very usefull and is as close to real time forward testing as backtesting ever gets.

Let me know if you're interested.

Alan
bringing order to chaos....
  • #1,292
  • Mar 2, 2010 4:46pm Mar 2, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting Sutts
Guys,

I'd be interested in a discussion of TRUE A+ trades. I think the term A+ is getting used quite loosely in some posts. It would be great if we could hammer out the true definition between us.

Please feel free to tear this apart and add to it. I think it could help a lot of us if we have a solid definition to work with.

Thanks
Hi Sutts,

I agree with you in that my trading has definately improved now that I have applied Sho's principles of viewing price in terms of impulsive and corrective moves and identifying momentum.

I think the best way that we can isolate what makes an A+ trade and what doesn't is to scan for a chart with what we consider to be an A+ trade on it and also scan for a chart with what may be mistaken for an A+ trade on it.

We can then post these side by side and use Sho's visual approach to make notes on these and highlight the things to look out for in each instance. No doubt Sho can tell us if we are on the right path and if so then these two cahrts will serve as a reference to refer back to.

Has any one else got any ideas?

Alan
bringing order to chaos....
  • #1,293
  • Mar 2, 2010 6:40pm Mar 2, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting Sutts
Guys,

I believe I've been overtrading this method and am trying hard to pick just a handful of good trades per day....
hello everybody
its time to go back to the basic .read all the posts i posted and see where i said A+ .
remember i said no other indicators only stocastic and kelthner.
use your eye balls.
just count the impulsive move.you dont have to draw fibs or anything
dont draw anything on the charts.keep the chart simple and clean.
again i am tellng you -impulsive move is the god father of all trading system or methood.
sho
  • #1,294
  • Mar 2, 2010 6:47pm Mar 2, 2010 6:47pm
again its time to review the basic .read the post 357 first then others two
see the posts
#357
#80
#177

all the best
sho
  • #1,295
  • Mar 2, 2010 10:06pm Mar 2, 2010 10:06pm
Sho had non right when you questioned about the picture if we should sell or buy and why ??


best regards
  • #1,296
  • Mar 2, 2010 10:55pm Mar 2, 2010 10:55pm
Hey people, I think what Sho is saying is that most of us are still on that learning curve and at some point we won't be asking what is an A+ setup - we will know. But when somebody asks us what is a A+, we give some answer like "isn't it obvious" or "you need more practise".

Train Your Eyeballs

I'm not claiming that it has happened for me. But I did go back and look at some of my previous posts and what I thought was an A+ 2 weeks ago, I now understand isn't. But there were also some posts where Sho identified some A+ setups that I don't understand yet. I am thinking that my definition of A+ will be different than Sho's and different than Rider's, but I don't think that matters. After all, A+ ultiimately means profitable trades.

Train Your Eyeballs

OK, here is my understanding at the present. I think it has a lot to do with the sequence of bars. But it is not always necessary to have an inside bar or a pin bar. But in some instances they are a good sign. I think the size of the bars is important. But I don't think it can be defined as 20 pips is too big and 10 pips is too small or anything as exact as that. I don't think the Keltner bands are particularily important although in some cases, the relationship of the bars to the bands can give you more confidence. I think the essence of A+ is that the price movement is ready to spring forward because it can't go any further in the other direction. It means not being too late or too early.
  • #1,297
  • Mar 3, 2010 2:21am Mar 3, 2010 2:21am
Quoting trade price
hello everybody
its time to go back to the basic .read all the posts i posted and see where i said A+ .
remember i said no other indicators only stocastic and kelthner.
use your eye balls.
just count the impulsive move.you dont have to draw fibs or anything
dont draw anything on the charts.keep the chart simple and clean.
again i am tellng you -impulsive move is the god father of all trading system or methood.
sho
Hi Sho,

I do have all your charts saved and I promise I haven't taken any shortcuts on my homework. Perhaps I'm just not seeing things that are obvious to you and others.

My understanding of an impulse move is:

in an uptrend, the last swing high is taken out (continuation of trend)
in an uptrend, the last swing low is taken out (reversal of trend - correction turned impulse)

This is what I'm looking for together with a pull back and signal bar. I'm not "counting" impulse moves as such but I am aware that after 3 consecutive impulse moves the probabilities of a continuation are reduced.

Looking back at your charts I think perhaps the only thing I didn't mention in my A+ discussion post that may be an important factor is strong evidence that the correction is over (things like failed pin bars in the direction of the correction).

A smooth trend line could also be important but that won't always be obvious on the initial impulse wave.

I hope I'm on the right lines. I guess it will become more obvious once I build up a greater history of successful and unsuccessful trades.

Dave
  • #1,298
  • Mar 3, 2010 2:55am Mar 3, 2010 2:55am
I know what I made wrong eurusd short. My first short was 1.3631, then I moved my stoploss to quickly to break-even. Look, where the price has been: until 1.3592!
  • #1,299
  • Mar 3, 2010 7:37am Mar 3, 2010 7:37am
Hi Sho,

I'd really appreciate your comments on these setups please.

I have a few questions regarding the attached chart:

1. Should the big (unusual?) bar labelled (a) have kept me out of any longs?

2. Should the bearish bars labelled (b) have added to the warning?

3. Should I have stayed out completely until price broke out from the hourly triangle shown in green?

4. Were any of the signal bars labelled with arrows valid in this context?

5. Was the bar labelled (c) a failed impulse turned corrective move? If so this would have made all the following long trades invalid I guess. I'm having real trouble determining if single bars are treated as failed impulsive moves. A failed impulsive move can change the picture completely. If bar (c) was just another bar in the correction then all the other trades would still be valid. I remember you saying that single inside bars can be considered moves in themselves but I'm not sure about bars like this.


So many questions Hope you can help please.

Dave
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,300
  • Mar 3, 2010 8:03am Mar 3, 2010 8:03am
Was this a dumb trade Sho? The blue line is daily S/R and approx. 50% fib retrace. Should the upper wicks of the last 2 candles have warned me off?

Thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF_2.GIF Size: 19 KB
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