Kodflakes Distortion

It is said that the market is range bound a majority of the time so here is a channel I have found may have been played out so far with multiple touches and US news coming out will be the deciding factor.

I would have enterd at the highlighted candle but this was a news spike for homes US, so i stayed out of it. The previous bounces were in the middle of me deciding the channel as i got up a little late. This would have been my pip total for the day ending time for the day less than 2 hours

3/2/2010

Now waiting on the third touches are vital to this strategy.

Looking at this chart there is a possibility to to the second touch of the second move to being a third touch more risky but would have been profitable with very little drawdown.

2nd touch Profit could have been between 53-62 pips depending if it was held to the bottom of the channel or just to the bottom of the line.
SL is set between 10-20 pips so easy 1:2 R:R ratio even with partial profit taken at close of candle appearing to bounce off bottom of chart

3rd touch 7.4 pip drawdown if taken at channel top with spread. Profit was 54 to 86 pips. 54 being to bottom of channel in 30 minutes, 86 being full move.

3/2/2010

Here is one Im still waiting on the downtrend to be confirmed looks like it will be soon but I took an early confirmation on price at the red arrow ride illustrated by white arrow and TP at blue snappy 30 pips

Again on the GY by some it is a feared pair due to its extreme swings but when you wait for confirmation it can be an easy ride.

on this channel you can see it had some hesitation at the top of it but highs were consistently made and it was something I was waiting on but I had to take my son to school. I do not take trades unless I am here to manage them. Look at the the blue arrow pointing at the third touch of the ascending channel. This is my ideal entry price showing hesitation and then taking off and hitting the top of the channel this was the only channel I did not have to adjust all morning should have taken it.

3/3/2010

Here is the next one on my watch list.
GU

there is an area highlighted by the light blue box S/R, extending over to the bottom of the channel looking for price to give me a reason at the orange arrow.

Had a bit of a blunder took profit way to early but I was going against the trend and it felt safe at the moment even though I had the idea of a bit more continuation. 5pips on the trade.

Got impatient and let it control my trade

Use 1hr to form channels.

Once three touches have been made it should be exhausted. There is less noise when using 1hr for channel forms than using 15m solely.

Use elliot wave for counts of touches (im not a big fan of wave counts but it helps in this particular deal)

Im seeing that 15 is a pretty good standard for stops and 30 is a basic minimum to look for on channels.

Works well with E/U, G/U, E/Y, G/Y, and U/Y plenty of moves for the week

Daily counts not looking for one looking at weekly totals. Goal is 1% risk would like 1:3 R:R min but have seen many that go up 6, goal for week pip wise is 100 pips which on ideal weeks can yield 10%.

This is still in testing so need a bit more refinement.

Here is another three hit setup.

entry at third orange arrow, quick run to bottom of channel for 70 pips. It did run through the channel for another 60 pips

Here is one for GY three touches and price showing opportunity

May have exited early but this one just didnt get the follow through I wanted +25 pips roughly

Caught the pound at this doji. Price was 1.51354 stop was at the base of the candle or 5120. Just got out at 25 pips have some things to do so Im done for the day. Euro had a very similar setup at the same time if I have time will post the chart.

Now here is the euro setting just like the pound should have took it as well but I missed this one was too focused on the pound.

Here is the next setup Im looking for orange arrow is what I expect price to do that will clearly break the current channel then the top of the red arrow is where I want price to comeback to. If price confirms at the top of the descending channel then I will short.

possibility of the same setup as euro on pound

love this thread

I found an opportunity last night for me. Now it wasnt ideal so I set a trailing stop and got stopped out at +4 or something like that basically BE. Now the problem for me with not being able to set my stops is that this tends to happen on the strategy. The stop is tight so you need to catch the run and exit which Trails would need to be adjusted to do this and i dont likke them. Funny thing however on the candle that took me out there was a valid place to enter in the location I was hoping to see last night.

Thanks sim

One more note take a look at moves in a lineal way. notice it will move straight, diagonal(cant spell today its early), and vertical. Most of the time after a vertical move in the desired direction off of the top/bottom of the channel and clearly breaking through the bottom/top, start looking for signs of a reversal. The 15 minute trend tends to change after the above.

This is the second time Im in at 84 looking for the channel to turn into resistance holding well now on the second entry. First entry stopped out at +1