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  • #7,361
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:06pm Mar 1, 2010 10:06pm
Quoting clockwork71

Posted an update to the blog......

http://www.thetraderguy.com


Nice article !!
  • #7,362
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:44pm Mar 1, 2010 11:44pm
http://i48.tinypic.com/27zzs4o.jpg
  • #7,363
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:55am Mar 2, 2010 2:55am

Not too bad a set-up but just be aware that it's a counter trend trade in which case you should be moving your SL to BE as quickly as possible. Look at the weekly for a clearer view of the trend.
  • #7,364
  • Mar 2, 2010 3:25am Mar 2, 2010 3:25am
CONFLUENCE::

I'd like to see some nice PA around the 1.05 area for a short. Some aggressive traders would even do a touch trade right there because there's a ton of resistance at that level. CAD Interest Rate decision coming up today, maybe we'd get some nice action..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchf.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #7,365
  • Mar 2, 2010 5:20am Mar 2, 2010 5:20am
Quoting clockwork71
He sure could. Probably use duct tape, a cucumber, and an ink pen to do it too!
Sounds like the way good old Angus would do it!
  • #7,366
  • Mar 2, 2010 7:44am Mar 2, 2010 7:44am
Quoting wh1zz0
CONFLUENCE::

I'd like to see some nice PA around the 1.05 area for a short. Some aggressive traders would even do a touch trade right there because there's a ton of resistance at that level. CAD Interest Rate decision coming up today, maybe we'd get some nice action..

Attachment
Yeah, the CAD is gaining strength into the rate decision. In my experience, it normally means they are going to sell the news. Of course, that's only a guess.....and not something to trade off of.
  • #7,367
  • Mar 2, 2010 10:05am Mar 2, 2010 10:05am
Quoting clockwork71
Yeah, the CAD is gaining strength into the rate decision. In my experience, it normally means they are going to sell the news. Of course, that's only a guess.....and not something to trade off of.
Still watching this pair at 1.03.....possible short term long.
  • #7,368
  • Mar 2, 2010 4:06pm Mar 2, 2010 4:06pm
Hi Chris

Cable has formed a potential pinbar yesterday and another quite clear one today (just a tiny bit of an upper shadow), and I was wondering if you'd consider this trade.

It is countertrend, which doesn't mean you won't take the trade. But by taking the trade at 1.5225 (20 pips from yesterday's high) with a stop at 1.4780 (445 pips), and at TP of 1.5700 (475 pips) the PR ratio is just above 1.

Would you consider taking the trade at 1.5010 (20 pips above today's smaller pinbar's high)? This way the PR (risk 230 TP 680) is just under 3:1.

Being countertrend and there being no particular convergence with Fibs, the trade is probably far from an A, and I know you just closed your short position so maybe you're not interested. But given the signals seem to be there, are there any reasons not go for it that I haven't considered?

E.g. Should we wait for a few days of consolidation in the S/R zone before we believe it can take off again...? Or could the steep downtrendline from the 19th jan be a problem?
  • #7,369
  • Mar 2, 2010 4:22pm Mar 2, 2010 4:22pm
sorry here's the chart

http://i162.photobucket.com/albums/t...p-2march10.gif
  • #7,370
  • Mar 2, 2010 5:20pm Mar 2, 2010 5:20pm
Quoting sebafx
sorry here's the chart

If you are referring to the last two daily candles on cable then you're mistaken as they are not true pin bars.. Below is an example of a true pin bar, and as you can see the bar does not only have a long nose (indicating the "lie") but, also importantly, the open and close are within the prior bar (left eye).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchf true pin.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #7,371
  • Mar 2, 2010 5:24pm Mar 2, 2010 5:24pm
Chris what's your take on the EURO? Fundamentally

Looks like Warren Buffet & George Soros shorted the Euro and are about to offload.
  • #7,372
  • Mar 2, 2010 6:58pm Mar 2, 2010 6:58pm
Quoting sebafx
Hi Chris

Cable has formed a potential pinbar yesterday and another quite clear one today (just a tiny bit of an upper shadow), and I was wondering if you'd consider this trade.

It is countertrend, which doesn't mean you won't take the trade. But by taking the trade at 1.5225 (20 pips from yesterday's high) with a stop at 1.4780 (445 pips), and at TP of 1.5700 (475 pips) the PR ratio is just above 1.

Would you consider taking the trade at 1.5010 (20 pips above today's smaller pinbar's high)? This way the PR (risk 230 TP 680) is just under 3:1....
Only because of the weekly box that was broken a couple weeks ago, I am not interested in going long at all. In fact, I am hoping it bounces a few hundred more pips so I can sell it! The sharp downtrend is certainly begging for a corrective bounce though....
  • #7,373
  • Mar 2, 2010 7:00pm Mar 2, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting wh1zz0
Chris what's your take on the EURO? Fundamentally

Looks like Warren Buffet & George Soros shorted the Euro and are about to offload.
Just like the GBP, I am very, very bearish on this currency. I am not going to be buying the EUR against the USD. I am waiting for the bounce that will certainly be coming. I look at it like the Dollar is on sale, and I am buying.....

I am hoping to see a nice set up at either 1.40 or 1.45
  • #7,374
  • Mar 2, 2010 7:06pm Mar 2, 2010 7:06pm
Quoting wh1zz0
If you are referring to the last two daily candles on cable then you're mistaken as they are not true pin bars.. Below is an example of a true pin bar, and as you can see the bar does not only have a long nose (indicating the "lie") but, also importantly, the open and close are within the prior bar (left eye).

Attachment

Thanks for the post here.....I missed that one. (Part of the trouble with having two kids.....in the background, running and playing.)

Chris

PS - I would highly recommend buying the book "Pring on Price Patterns". I cannot stress this enough.
  • #7,375
  • Mar 2, 2010 8:35pm Mar 2, 2010 8:35pm
Quoting clockwork71
Still watching this pair at 1.03.....possible short term long.
Hi Chris,

I see a potential box trade on Cad...big between the ears but still valid.

Do you still favor the upside.

I am going to place stops and see which one gets hit first...I'm still thinking short.

good hunting,

golferfx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad weekly.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #7,376
  • Mar 3, 2010 4:39am Mar 3, 2010 4:39am
Quoting wh1zz0
If you are referring to the last two daily candles on cable then you're mistaken as they are not true pin bars.. Below is an example of a true pin bar, and as you can see the bar does not only have a long nose (indicating the "lie") but, also importantly, the open and close are within the prior bar (left eye).
Thanks wh1zz0. I have actually read Pring and followed his webinars and youtube stuff, but hadn't fully understood the characteristics of the Pinbar. I was just looking at it being at the extreme of a rally or through and it's shadow being at least twice as big as the body, but I just re-read it and noticed the importance of the body being inside the previous bar as you say, and the long nose being a false breakout as well. So this helps. Nice one, cheers.
  • #7,377
  • Mar 3, 2010 4:46am Mar 3, 2010 4:46am
Quoting clockwork71
Only because of the weekly box that was broken a couple weeks ago, I am not interested in going long at all. In fact, I am hoping it bounces a few hundred more pips so I can sell it! The sharp downtrend is certainly begging for a corrective bounce though....
Thanks for the insight Chris. So I see that, had those two been valid pinbars, it still wouldn't be strictly part of the method to take the bounce (taking profits as soon as price hits target without trailing stops, it being countertrend). I guess there are "discretionary nuances" so to speak.

What would then be the ideal situation for you to actually take a countertrend bounce (with TP at next s/r area)?

Once again thanks for all the help
Seba
  • #7,378
  • Mar 3, 2010 5:00am Mar 3, 2010 5:00am
Hey guys dropping in, just wanna throw some thoughts up regarding AUDUSD...

past few days we've had our major economic announcements

yesterday raising rates 25bps and today GDP y/y better than expectations

Now if we are getting such great news and still not pushing higher, to me it seems hard for the AUD to rally much further, any bit of bad data will push it off immensely i feel, just looking at the structure of the chart and the brick wall its hitting atm, im short biased.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD_daily.png Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_1hour.png Size: 81 KB
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #7,379
  • Mar 3, 2010 6:54am Mar 3, 2010 6:54am
Quoting whitegoodman
Hey guys dropping in, just wanna throw some thoughts up regarding AUDUSD...

past few days we've had our major economic announcements

yesterday raising rates 25bps and today GDP y/y better than expectations

Now if we are getting such great news and still not pushing higher, to me it seems hard for the AUD to rally much further, any bit of bad data will push it off immensely i feel, just looking at the structure of the chart and the brick wall its hitting atm, im short biased.
Agreed. I was noticing that as well. It is starting to look like about 6 weeks ago, when it couldn't get through 94 (I believe), and as such, I am short biased as well.
  • #7,380
  • Mar 3, 2010 9:44am Mar 3, 2010 9:44am
chris
any comment about this pair . it has broken all time high in almost 10 years !! it shows a bearish butterfly !
would like to hear your comment about this pair
thanks
samer
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