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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #217,021
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:22am Mar 1, 2010 10:22am
..... no amount of TA expertise would have helped this week so far. It's hard to see an end to Sterling's decline and a number of reasons are being given:

1, Possibility of a hung UK parliament not providing the clarity traders seek.
2, The Prudential's purchase of a division of AIG requires $25 Billion to be exchanged.
3, UK debt unsustainable and on a par with Greece, (GDP wise).

OR, the big dogs are fucking with us until we break, then they'll go heavily long for the long haul. Japan is a ticking timebomb remember....

The more we fall now without retracement, the less convinced I am with the Sterling doomsday scenario, but like Quecee says....
  • #217,022
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:23am Mar 1, 2010 10:23am
Forex is a game...They are giving us the poker play...



Quoting ukdaytrader
..... no amount of TA expertise would have helped this week so far. It's hard to see an end to Sterling's decline and a number of reasons are being given:

1, Possibility of a hung UK parliament not providing the clarity traders seek.
2, The Prudential's purchase of a division of AIG requires $25 Billion to be exchanged.
3, UK debt unsustainable and on a par with Greece, (GDP wise).

OR, the big dogs are fucking with us until we break, then they'll go heavily long for the long haul. Japan is a ticking timebomb remember....

The more we...
[
  • #217,023
  • Edited 10:59am Mar 1, 2010 10:45am | Edited 10:59am
By this time H4 bull signal staying for long time actually failed to bull any & there developing another buy set up , present H4 candle to close by 1:10 min perhaps from now & next one may be 9th to close below 133.20 for only a b perfection & so sell continue till it develops & if any action as per h1 , seems here also needs few hrs to yoyo for sell CD complete .do h1 first to pave the bull in H4 .
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #217,024
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:50am Mar 1, 2010 10:50am
Quoting ukdaytrader
..... no amount of TA expertise would have helped this week so far. It's hard to see an end to Sterling's decline and a number of reasons are being given:

1, Possibility of a hung UK parliament not providing the clarity traders seek.
2, The Prudential's purchase of a division of AIG requires $25 Billion to be exchanged.
3, UK debt unsustainable and on a par with Greece, (GDP wise).

OR, the big dogs are fucking with us until we break, then they'll go heavily long for the long haul. Japan is a ticking timebomb remember....

The more we fall now...
I disagree. this is way over sold and do for a bounce. everything you said was fundamental which will be late(/inconsistent) on the price action. yes of course they buy/sell because of fundamentals but you can't trust what the mainstream says. 99% of the time the news is after the fact of the decisions that have been made at the top.

I was going to long this at 132.30 but I was asleep and couldn't open my eyes long enough to make a trade. Hopefully it will sell off back to those levels or lower if i'm lucky. 130.00 or so - crossing finger. I was just about to place a short on aud/usd at 90.00 and again I was waiting for myself to wake up enough to make sure I was making a good decision. Before I could wake up it dropped about 30 pips. boom there's goes my entry level. Now I have to wait. That's what I get for needing sleep. had i been awake I would have placed those trades.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #217,025
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:56am Mar 1, 2010 10:56am
Quote
No. We'll go to 90.

But japanese exporters will object such a strength in G/J.

I think we are heading to 125 and then back to 165 + for the rest of the year.
  • #217,026
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:59am Mar 1, 2010 10:59am
Quoting kingfisher
But japanese exporters will object such a strength in G/J.

I think we are heading to 125 and then back to 165 + for the rest of the year.
Oh, forget what they say. Japanese exporters didn't object when GJ dropped from 210 to 120. You can't base your trading on what the Japanese ministers tell you, or you're going to lose money. Go try listen to Merkel when she say speculators will lose betting against Euro.
  • #217,027
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:08am Mar 1, 2010 11:08am
Quoting ukdaytrader
..... no amount of TA expertise would have helped this week so far. It's hard to see an end to Sterling's decline and a number of reasons are being given:

1, Possibility of a hung UK parliament not providing the clarity traders seek.
2, The Prudential's purchase of a division of AIG requires $25 Billion to be exchanged.
3, UK debt unsustainable and on a par with Greece, (GDP wise).

OR, the big dogs are fucking with us until we break, then they'll go heavily long for the long haul. Japan is a ticking timebomb remember....

The more we fall now...
the most notable thing that stands out with uk economy is the deflation. As long as deflation is happening there is no reason to raise the rates. The other issue is jobs. So anything else is just icing on the cake and who wins the ugly pageant. But still I don't follow the fundamentals. All this can be seen in the price action. I always see the moves in my charts and then I see the news but I never place the trade because of them moving their lips.

as far as dooms day scenario this has all been well known for some time. The thing I notice most in an economy is how much it's people put in their savings. This is a way of gauging the long term economy. Before the big real estate crash in the US Americans had zero savings on average and at some point a negative savings rate because they were living on credit while rates were already low or behind the curve if you will. The Japanese are currently having problems keeping money in the bank. Then you combine the other factors such as long term employment. If nobody can spend because of no income or savings they have to intervene somehow to stimulate the economy which weakens the currency. When they can no longer intervene a collapse occurs and the bubble burst. In the money world it's the country that is the least ugly has the stronger dollar and they stay ahead of the curve at least against it's rival. Japan and UK both have a certain degree of ugliness. As complex as it sounds, it's really not.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #217,028
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:18am Mar 1, 2010 11:18am
no, not yet. i think we should go up from here.

here is what i see on my charts: accumulation at this level + daily close above descending channel.

Quoting zweig
scrat do yuo also0 the eur/usd drop to 1.30 +- ? before major bounce back up ?

oi i love this game ,, up 200 pips close in the next minutes at + 10 ..

oh well,will try again at 1.3090 /1.3
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #217,029
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:22am Mar 1, 2010 11:22am
127.5 will be a place for short-term long or a close of short

short-term, it's your guess on where to sell now

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  • #217,030
  • Edited 12:32pm Mar 1, 2010 11:48am | Edited 12:32pm
less than 20 min to close h4 candle if the next go close below 133.20 , M5 now finishing countdown for sell by 2 or more candle if able to close over 133.82. sell accumulation there , risky ones now.M15 cd 13 to close over 133.89 by 2or more candles there .M1 also same sell cd to finish. Go over 133.89 by half an hr & move down all together,not to fall premature please.
No things have changed now close over 133.73 will do sell signals for m5,15 but m1 still need 84 .
fontu

close shorts above 133.58 at this level as not thinking they will continue down instead place pending ones above 13384/74.
will check later.
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #217,031
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:43pm Mar 1, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting rgitt05
Forex is a game...They are giving us the poker play...

forex is mario cat
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #217,032
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:51pm Mar 1, 2010 12:51pm
What are the chances of going below 132.50 before going above 134.50?
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #217,033
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:54pm Mar 1, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting england33
What are the chances of going below 132.50 before going above 134.50?
always higher probability to go with trend. maybe 76%?
  • #217,034
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:58pm Mar 1, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting england33
What are the chances of going below 132.50 before going above 134.50?
Whats more likely??
The GU to continue to drop or retrace? The UJ to continue ranging 88-90?

Personally I think the 200 pip retrace this morning on the GU will be it and with some more downside to come, so if I were a betting guy, I'd say 132.5 before 134.5.

Cheers
  • #217,035
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:13pm Mar 1, 2010 1:13pm
i thought this was worth mentioning: if you take a look at this chart, you can see that today has put a support at 132.90 area (the white line indicated by an arrow), something that has never happened before since it started falling from 141.50 area.

let's pay attention to how today will close. IF it closes well above 132.90, then chances are we already have a bottom in place and retracement (or at least consolidation) should begin. but... don't go hog wild loading longs... major trend is still down and it is safer to short from resistances - 139 area; 141 area; even 148.
so, if you must trade, use tight stops and book profits frequently. this may


p.s.
by the way, e-usd seems to be ready to take off - i posted my charts earlier. another good opportunity for who watches that pair.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #217,036
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:19pm Mar 1, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting Cdawg
Whats more likely??
The GU to continue to drop or retrace? The UJ to continue ranging 88-90?

Personally I think the 200 pip retrace this morning on the GU will be it and with some more downside to come, so if I were a betting guy, I'd say 132.5 before 134.5.

Cheers

i can see a bounce back up to 1.5422 before we heading to 1.4584 .. 1.49 is a tough cookie to break with first attempt and after that 1.4585 is a tougher one to face... spike low on daily also give me more weight to my view that we will get ressistance at the confl area @ 1.5422...

i will be patient for this steady move up on gbp pairs

EUR/GBP got my attention for this weeks trading !!!
H&S pattern on daily with untested supp plus right shoulder @ 0.8841
  • #217,037
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:21pm Mar 1, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting Scrat
i thought this was worth mentioning: if you take a look at this chart, you can see that today has put a support at 132.90 area (the white line indicated by an arrow), something that has never happened before since it started falling from 141.50 area.

let's pay attention to how today will close. IF it closes well above 132.90, then chances are we already have a bottom in place and retracement (or at least consolidation) should begin. but... don't go hog wild loading longs... major trend is still down and it is safer to short from resistances -...


watch the eur/gbp !!!! for another upside attack ! untested supp @ 0.8841 +-
  • #217,038
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:28pm Mar 1, 2010 1:28pm
up retracement 133.85
target 132.80 ist
  • #217,039
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:51pm Mar 1, 2010 1:51pm
eur/usd . gbp/usd ..chf/usd gonna surprise the majority of the traders across the globe this year...
  • #217,040
  • Mar 1, 2010 2:39pm Mar 1, 2010 2:39pm
Enormously difficult to trade for a living in forex madness.

I am studying hard to get an auditor job in next few months.
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