Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

My short term bias for early next week is neutral. Just scalp between the range.IMHO these level will hold for quite a while.

I dont know about YEN,, but EURO is about to get very strong..If not ALREADY.....

If see for long term(daily chart) then its ok but check ur margen as move can be test 136.70. My simple method for any trade is to use 25% of top & bottom area for any trade entry, don't enter next time in bottom area for sell pos.

Mathematical proportion.
Answer is hidden in number 5.

We are going to see a biggest carry trade rally ever seen before.


I dont know if current level hold for ever but i am pretty sure that gj is going to test 150 in coming days, gu 1.60 uj 93.70.

then maybe next drop to test 13470 or to test 130 area 76.4 fib.

In any case i will make money

good weekend to u bro

well, its early to predict gj up move as daily candle is still open. Any up move at this stage will be correction, anyhow my calculation point is from 15tf-4hrtf is 137.40 with extention of 137.95.

for the bullish divergence to be valid, we would need a new low.
i do agree with a huge bull flag, but for now, we just took out the major support last week. weekly, and monthly gave us a strong red bar.
in this case, 78 fib should be much more important level than 62 fib, no?

Yes i agree, usually divergences has to make new low but
In this particular case imho (according to historical yearly chart) would be very hard to dive below yearly support created by following yearly candles.

1995 Low 130.99
2008 Close 132.56
2009 Open 133.94

More or less because of different time zones.
See chart

ofc i might be full of sh*t in that case and think completely wrong at least i got plan

agreed

If we are talking yearly charts, then this is getting hard core.

Since 4/09 139.00 zone been a support level to break until 2/25/10.

Now 139.00 zone is a strong resistance and overall higher TF's bias is still bearish.

Based on the monthly chart, GJ PA bounced off the 61.8% fib level 135.00 zone. Most of the time PA retrace from S/R levels before continuation in the overall bias..

Looking at the 4hr chart, 139.00 is now the resistance zone and PA will possible retrace up in this area before the freefall

IMHO

Selling all rallies up to the 138-139.00 level..

Good Luck..

Get ready for another kaboom if bad news from eurozone or china next week.

What mathematics are you using to see a test to 150 in "coming days"?

Be careful with those counter trend trades in this market.

We may not see 150 till next year if then.

I totally agree with you but with one question.
Why not buy in the rallies up to 138.50, take profit and then go short?

probably...

1. still holding shorts from up top. (US traders can't hedge)

2. we may not see that level? (range?)

Sweet secret everyone should have some...but i left a lot of clues.
I do not recommend to copy my trades because u don't have any idea about my MM.
just trade ur chart or follow rgitt05

Guys..., do you know ALL THE TIME HIGH and LOW for GJ, GU dan EU..?
where I can find that information..?

Thanks

Huge Long Term OPPORTUNITY...

Here is EUR/ GBP... WEEKLY AND DAILY... Targettting 1.05 - 1.08..That is 261.8% of 1 or can be labelled as A..

Second Wave5 at 1.30ish...IF WE have wave 5 equal to wave 3..very POSIIBLE..according to Neelys Third and Fifth extension Terminal..

I believe Break out will be an IMPULSE ..( Violent)

Notice the STOCH on Monthly...so OS... waiting for one last Pull Back and then ENTER long...

Can also see a BEARISH BAT formation on Daily..should complete at DOUBLE TOP..

GBP WILL GET WEAK AGAINST euro...

Yen I dont know...

Someone asked me to Analyze this 4-5 months ago...

Here is an OLD chart...

Why can't you hedge? I'm in US and I hedge whenever I want to with sub-accounts. My broker is Oanda.

Shamu

Looking at the time spread for the main waves there are 2 groups of time which for now can be used for our analysis. First group is the 80-83 range and the second group is 100-110 range.

Wave 4/X has to fall within one of the time groups for now. The location where the drop from 4026 has finished in terms of its elliot wave count is not clear at the moment (either 3577 or 3559).

For now a high probability is 3577, and for fibonacci reasons mentioned later I am picking that spot. but I have included 3535 as a place to measure time too.

The time from either red lines to present does not fall within either groups of time measured (80 & 100). If we extend the time to the blue line which is around March 2nd 00:00 GMT then wave 4/X is done and the time from either of the red lines will group nicely with the other waves. In this case we probably will have a major thrust starting at that time.

Now whether a new high is going to be made or just range bound motion between 3680 and 3580, its still questionable. But even if a new high is going to be made its just going to be a better setup for a sell.

Looking at the resistance levels, we see that the 3680-3690 levels have held pretty solid. Interestingly enough we have 2 fiboancci levels that are worth paying attention:

23.6 of 4525-3585 = 3685
AND
23.6 of 4578-3443 = 3711

Very very close levels to each other. Double fibonacci overlap combined with a behaviour showing the resistance of the EUR to penetrate this level, is a good reason to consider this area a high probability sell zone and also be very very carefull on thinking that EUR will slice these level and go higher up.

So now we know that there is a little bit more time that has to pass before we see a considerable thrust downwards. So what will the EUR do on Monday March 1st?

There are 2 scenarios here, personally I believe the first scenario will happen.

Scenraio 1:

A contracting triangle will form between 3540 and 3680. This contracting triangle will finish by the end of the japaneese session and on Tuesday at the beginning of the EUR session we will start to see a thrust downwards that will be very powerfull and huge. In a contracting triangles retracements are usually around the 80-95% zone, 38.2 and 61.8 as mentioned in the books dont work. In this case look for 3670 to go short, and set your stoploss at 3715. Choose your lot size appropriately, but its a good idea to go with minimum lot at 3670 and then add more lots at 3660-3650 when the triangle is close to its ending.

Scenario 2:

A new high of 3711 will be made and after that a thrust downwards will start. What kind of formation is suitable for 3711? I am not quite sure of that, because there are too many possibilities

The reason that I am choosing scenario 1 is that when a contracting triangle forms Wave A is the most violent move, and the thrust of the triangle is opposite to wave A. If you have a mediocare move as Wave A and you think you have a contracting triangle with your wave counts, then you are wrong and your wave A is probably part of a flat formation.

Anything higher than 3711 stay out of the market,

Good Luck With This Information.

interesting analysis, kambooj.